Gold To The Basement? Week Ahead with Bearish Bias by PhoenixFX

5 天前

🌟 Welcome to Phoenix FX’s Intraday Pulse! 🌟

Hello, Phoenix FX family! 👋 I’m thrilled you’ve joined us for today’s TradingView chart breakdown. Our focus? Intraday opportunities—spotting those high-probability setups you can enter, manage, and leave to run whilst you concentrate on the things you love doing.

Here’s what you’ll find in this analysis:

Key Levels & Zones: Support, resistance, and Fair Value Gaps that matter on the smaller timeframes.

Price-Action Clues: Exact candlestick patterns and momentum signals to watch for your next entry.

Trade Triggers & Targets: Clear criteria for when to get in, where to take profits, and how to manage your risk.

Whether you’re hunting quick scalps or tactical swing moves, our goal is simple: help you trade with confidence, clarity, and community support. Got a different view or a fresh idea? Drop it in the comments—after all, “each one, teach one.” 😉

Let’s dive into the charts and make today’s market moves count! 🚀📈

Donald Trump’s presidency continues to exert outsized influence on gold through three main channels: trade policy uncertainty, fiscal stimulus (and resulting deficits), and shifts in safe-haven demand. Here’s how each factor has played out—and what it could mean for gold going forward:

1. Trade-War Uncertainty

What’s Happening: The Trump administration’s aggressive use of tariffs—including recent 25% duties on goods from Japan and South Korea—has periodically roiled markets and driven investors into gold as a safe haven. On July 7, gold pared losses after tariff news, as traders sought refuge despite a firm dollar.

Looking Ahead: If further tariff escalations or retaliations emerge, expect renewed spikes in gold. Conversely, any de-escalation or trade-deal breakthroughs could sap that safe-haven bid.

2. Fiscal Stimulus & Deficits

What’s Happening: Senate Republicans recently passed a Trump-backed tax‐and‐spending package projected to add $3.3 trillion to the U.S. deficit. Larger deficits—especially when financed by the Fed—tend to stoke inflation expectations, which bolsters gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge.

Looking Ahead: Continued large-scale stimulus or fresh tax cuts without offsetting revenue measures could keep real yields low (or negative), a classic tailwind for gold.

3. Safe-Haven Flows & Investor Positioning

What’s Happening: Despite peaking at record highs earlier this year, gold remains up roughly 30% since November, driven largely by investor fears around Trump’s policy unpredictability and geopolitical tensions.

Looking Ahead: Should Trump-era uncertainty persist—whether around trade, foreign policy, or domestic turmoil—gold is likely to retain its status as a portfolio diversifier and crisis hedge. A sustained drop in U.S. real rates or fresh bouts of market volatility would reinforce that trend.

🎯 Outlook Summary

Bullish Drivers: Ongoing trade-war rhetoric, larger deficits, and any new geopolitical flashpoints.

Bearish Risks: Clear resolution of major trade disputes, a pivot by the Fed toward earlier rate cuts (reducing real‐rate support for gold), or diminished investor fear.

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PhoenixFX price action analysis based on the Daily time frame

🔴 Primary Resistance (Daily)

Zone: $3,348 – $3,400

Why It Matters:

Multiple daily closes have stalled here, leaving a clear Fair-Value Gap (dashed purple). Sellers are likely to defend this range until we see a decisive daily close above $3,400.

📉 Bearish Bias – Short Setups

Short at Resistance

Entry: Bearish daily reversal candle (engulfing, pin-bar) in $3,348–$3,400

Targets:

TP1: $3,290 (50% of Primary Buy Zone)

TP2: $3,250 (Primary Buy Zone low)

TP3: $3,172 (Secondary Buy Zone high)

Stop-Loss: Above $3,420

Breakdown Short

Trigger: Daily close below $3,250 (Primary Buy Zone low)

Entry: On the open of the next daily candle after close below $3,250

Targets:

TP1: $3,172 (Secondary Buy Zone)

TP2: $3,026 (Final Buy Zone 50% level)

Stop-Loss: Above $3,290

🔵 Potential Long Opportunities

Defensive Long (Aggressive)

Entry: Bullish daily rejection candle in $3,250–$3,290

Targets:

TP1: $3,348 (short-term resistance)

TP2: $3,400 (key resistance)

Stop-Loss: Below $3,230

Trend-Reversal Long (Ultra-Conservative)

Trigger: Daily close above $3,400

Entry: Open of the next daily candle after the close above $3,400

Targets:

TP1: $3,450

TP2: $3,500+

Stop-Loss: Below $3,360

📊 Week-Ahead Scenarios

Bearish Scenario (High Probability):

Price remains capped under $3,400.

Look for a bearish signal in $3,348–$3,400 to initiate shorts.

A break below $3,250 extends the move into deeper demand zones ($3,172 → $3,026).

Bullish Counter-Trend (Lower Probability):

Strong daily rejection candle in $3,250–$3,290 could spark a relief rally.

Short-term longs can target $3,348 and $3,400—ideal for quick swing trades.

Only a sustained daily close above $3,400 shifts the bias back to the upside.


Just a Heads-Up:
This is my take on the charts—not gospel, not financial advice, and definitely not a crystal ball 🔮.

Trading is part skill, part patience, and part “what just happened?” 😅

We all see things a little differently, and that’s the beauty of it. So if you’ve got a hot take, wild theory, or just want to drop some chart wisdom—hit the comments!

Let’s grow, learn, and laugh through the madness together. 🚀📈

Each one, teach one.

— Phoenix FX Team 🔥🦅

4 天前

交易進行

Target 1 achieved. Waiting for the next push down!! It's not to late to get involved. Have a good read of the analysis.