GOLD (XAUUSD): big complex moves 'till the end of the correction

已更新

This is my last analysis on big the scale on GOLD.

According to this I dont think we are in the bull run yet, but we are moving into big complex corrections internally composed all by three drives (different series of 5 3 5 and triangles that often looks like 5 impulsive waves, but they arent, for me).

So this could be the last move up to 1762 - 87 before another big dump to 1630 - 20 area for the last real correction before the next cycle.

I'm still watching closely all the inner moves, measuring and counting those to try to predict the upper waves and from a month, untill now this is the only count that makes a real sense to me.

So lets see if this will be followed by the price.

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April 2 / 5, i'm already watching from days at this complex moves on the big scale:

April 6, double zigzag correction identified:

April 8, ABCDE (triangle) after double correction:

The entire view of subcounts from March 8 on 30min and lower tf:

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New impulse of 5 waves on 5min tf after the ABCDE from yesterday:

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Of course there is also a counter count in the bulls view, that is pretty valid:

but that wave 3 not convincing me for the substructures and the fact that is extended only at 1% of wave 1, anyway, we cant consider also this.

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progression of the idea:

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May we have done?

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A move like this is still possibile if my idea is correct:

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Beware, I may start to consider this count as a big wave 1:

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... or a C:

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In this second case, the targets could remain valid, but the waves labeling wouldnt be correct.

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Updates in the big scale:

i would expect that it will goes higher at least to 1774 and maybe higher, but lets see.

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Ok, if this idea of multiple corrective moves up (looking like a 5) is correct, we should also have completed the last ABC:

and i entered in sell side from above of 65 area. But if it will makes another leg up, breaking 1780 we might stary in awave 3 and not in a C, so be carefull.

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This would be the opposite view:

thats is very very realistic.

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It makes terribly sense:

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We might have done here:

or continue with another wave up to 1804:

cause the subcount looks like we have completed only the relative wave 3 and we are into the 4 now:

lets see.

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ok, we might also have done with the relative C (yellow)

The inner count might be already completed:

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We got shorts at 1787 and 89 and we are holding till at least the completiotion of the relative C down around 1755 - 52 area, then will hedge and see how it will developes the structure, cause from that point it could also bounce up again.

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Be carefull to 1761:

will be critical there, if breaks down, then it should drops till the red rectangle before any bounce.

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a better subcount in lower tf that looks good atm:

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something is not good with the above post.

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Be carefull because this range could be also the 4th wave before the leg up (wave 5) that i mentioned in the past post that could be missing. pratically, we could stay here:

its a valid count atm

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this is really plausible if we are into a 5th up:

tp are to 1804 - 1811 area, Above 1819 that is not a C, its a giant wave 3 in upside.

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means that above 1811 - 19 area this idea will be invalidated.

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April 16: s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/g/GlgrFWqS.png
Today:

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Well: this is not going up like an inner impulsive wave in my opinion (it should be the 5th but the inner count of this 5th would be really weird, so far it looks like an abc), lets see. This could be the counter count, and thr red from 89 could be a wave 1 on the contrary :D

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So, only a strong break out of 90 willl confirm the 5th up, in that case we will reach 804 - 811 area i think.

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Btw... on lower tf, the waves are all there and the count looks perfectly regular, with a 5th in play:

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This would be the entire count from March 8:

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this remains valid:

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The current situation:

Follow the subcounts on my new idea here:

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Updates will be posted on the new idea, here (click to see and like it):

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Progression:

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Well, also if this idea

has been invalidated yesterday from the break up of 1790. The main idea in here could remains valid (are we in a "E" leg up?), cause the bull count of 5 impulsive waves in upside continues to have some issues into the subcounts. So we have to watch but there is a possibility that this main idea still remains valid.

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Well the ABC is completed, if we goes higher we have will to look at the bull count probably: