DeGRAM | GOLD aim to test the lower boundary

3 天前

📊 Technical Analysis
● Hourly price is defending the channel’s lower half: three consecutive wicks bounced at 3 360, forming a descending flag whose base coincides with the dynamic support.
● OBV is edging higher while the flag narrows; a close above 3 408 would unlock the flag-measured move toward the upper rail / horizontal target at 3 444–3 450.

💡 Fundamental Analysis
● World Gold Council reports India’s jewellery demand rebounded 8 % w/w as monsoon concerns eased, while CME data show fresh 6 K-lot COMEX short-covering after the latest FOMC testimony tempered rate-hike talk.

✨ Summary
Long 3 360–3 380; flag break > 3 408 eyes 3 444 → 3 450. Bull view void on an H1 close below 3 343.

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前天

交易進行

📊 Technical Analysis
The 4-hour chart for XAUUSD shows the price action neatly contained within a well-defined rising channel that has been active since late April. Currently, the price is testing a significant confluence of support. This includes the lower trendline of the rising channel and a horizontal support area mapped between 3,350 and 3,380. We can observe multiple successful tests of this channel's lower boundary, marked by teal arrows, which have consistently led to bullish reversals, reinforcing the strength of this dynamic support. The most recent candle shows a strong rejection from this zone, suggesting buyers are stepping in with conviction. The projected path on the chart indicates a potential bounce from this level, initially targeting the mid-channel area before a potential move towards the horizontal resistance at 3,431.50.

💡 Fundamental Analysis
This technical posture is reinforced by the latest macroeconomic data. Yesterday's release of US Jobless Claims came in higher than anticipated, signaling potential cooling in the labor market. This has slightly dampened expectations for aggressive monetary tightening from the Federal Reserve, putting mild pressure on the US Dollar and Treasury yields, which is typically supportive for non-yielding assets like Gold. Additionally, geopolitical tensions remain elevated in the Middle East, sustaining a baseline level of safe-haven demand for the precious metal.

✨ Summary
Combining the technical and fundamental pictures, a strong case for a bullish continuation emerges. The price is reacting positively to a robust support structure, while the fundamental backdrop provides tailwinds. A long position from the current support zone between 3,350-3,380 appears favorable. The initial target would be the resistance level at 3,431.50, with a further target at the upper channel boundary near 3,494.40. The bullish scenario would be invalidated if the price breaks and closes below the 3,350 support area on the 4-hour timeframe.

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