XAUUSD – Pullback ahead of potential breakout above 3,433

The latest forecasts show that both ADP and ISM PMI data in the US are rising, reflecting a stronger-than-expected economic recovery. This has led the market to scale back expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut. As a result, the dollar is gaining strength, putting short-term downward pressure on gold.

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD is trading within a consolidation range between two key levels: support at 3,346 and resistance at 3,433. Price was recently rejected at the previous high but has not shown any clear reversal signal. The 34 and 89 EMAs are acting as a technical cushion, keeping the broader bullish trend intact.

The scenario to watch: if price continues to stabilize around the 3,346 zone without breaking below, a clean consolidation structure could form. In that case, a breakout above 3,433 would be a confirmation signal for another bullish wave—opening the door to higher targets ahead.