DeGRAM | GOLD trend line breakout

5月12日

📊 Technical Analysis
● Price printed successive lower highs (LH) inside the descending channel and has just broken back below the blue corrective trend‑line.
● Fresh acceptance under the 3 260 points to a slide toward the lower rail at 3 200, with scope to probe the March floor near 3 100; bias flips only on a 4 h close back above 3 300.

💡 Fundamental Analysis
● A hotter‑than‑expected US CPI (3.5 % y/y) lifted 10‑yr yields to 4.50  %, reviving bets that the Fed may delay cuts, which firmed the USD and spurred ETF outflows from bullion.

✨ Summary
Lower highs + rising US yields favour a short‑term short in XAU/USD: targets 3 200 → 3 100, risk managed above 3 300.

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5月13日

交易進行

📊 Technical Analysis
● The rebound is fading at the channel’s internal median (blue) after printing successive lower swing‑highs since late‑April, signalling waning upward momentum.
● Last week’s close back below 3 260 turned that line into resistance; the current uptick looks like a classic retest, favouring another leg toward the lower dotted supports at 3 200 and 3 100.

💡 Fundamental Analysis
● A risk‑on wave sparked by hopes of a U.S.–China tariff détente lifted the dollar and equities, siphoning flows from safe‑haven gold.
● Fed officials stressed “no rush” to cut while inflation lingers, keeping Treasury yields elevated and further dulling bullion’s appeal.

✨ Summary
Failed retest of 3 260/3 315 inside a softening up‑channel, plus firm USD‑rate backdrop, support a short bias: targets 3 200 → 3 100, risk managed on a sustained break above 3 315.

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