Macro theme:
- At the Jul meeting, most policymakers suggested easing policy in Sep would be appropriate if the data aligned with expectations.
- Bets on more rate cuts grew after US Nonfarm Payrolls were revised down to 820K, raising doubts about the labor market's resilience to higher rates.
- Investors are now waiting for Fed Chair Powell's speech on Friday for guidance on the interest rate outlook, keeping markets stable for now.
- Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to drive gold prices higher.
Technical theme:
- XAUUSD is still trading above the EMA21, indicating solid upward momentum persists.
- If XAUUSD extends its gain, we can watch the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which is around 2555.
- On the contrary, if XAUUSD retraces before continuing, we must watch for 2480 and a lower level at 2431 before attempting any go-with-trend trades.
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