🟡 XAUUSD Elliott Wave Analysis (15M TF) – Wave (4) Forming, Short Setup in Play
📅 Date: May 16, 2025
📈 Instrument: Gold (XAU/USD) – 15M Chart
🔍 Technique: Elliott Wave, SNR, Fibonacci, AO Convergence
✅ Wave Count Summary
We have a clean 5-wave Elliott structure unfolding:
✅ Wave (1), (2), and extended Wave (3) are completed.
🔄 Price is now in a Wave (4) pullback phase.
🔽 Anticipating a final push down for Wave (5).
🔍 Wave (4) Confluence Zone (Short Setup)
Price is currently approaching a strong confluence zone around 3196, which includes:
📌 Confluences at 3196:
🔴 SNR (Support-Turned-Resistance): Historical reaction level
🌀 Fibonacci Retracements:
0.618 of wave (3) = 3171.6
1.618 Fib Extension (minor internal leg) = 3198.81
Several Fibo clusters between 3195–3200
📐 Dominant Break occurred previously → retest likely
🕯️ Bearish Reaction Expected: Monitor for reversal candlesticks near this level
💡 This is the ideal entry zone for Wave (5) shorts.
📉 Wave (5) Bearish Target Projections
Using Fibo projections from Wave (3) to (4), expect:
Target Level Description Price Zone
🎯 TP1 100% of Wave (1) extension ~3154.80
🎯 TP2 Full Wave (5) extension zone ~3135–3140
📊 AO Divergence may signal Wave (5) completion as momentum fades.
💼 Trade Setup Idea
(For educational purposes – follow your own strategy & confirmation rules)
Parameter Value
Entry Zone 3195–3198 (SNR + Fibo)
Stop Loss 3206–3210 (above structure)
TP1 3155 (safe zone)
TP2 3135 (extended target)
Risk–Reward ~1:2.5 to 1:3 depending on SL
📌 Confirmation Tips:
Wait for bearish engulfing or pin bar near 3196.
Watch for AO turning red = sign of bearish momentum resuming.
🧠 Conclusion
Wave (4) looks to be maturing near the 3196 SNR/Fibo cluster, with a bearish reaction expected to kickstart Wave (5). This setup offers a great R:R opportunity if confirmed by price action. Patience and confirmation are key — don’t front-run until a rejection forms.
📈 Let the chart do the talking. Trade what you see.
📅 Date: May 16, 2025
📈 Instrument: Gold (XAU/USD) – 15M Chart
🔍 Technique: Elliott Wave, SNR, Fibonacci, AO Convergence
✅ Wave Count Summary
We have a clean 5-wave Elliott structure unfolding:
✅ Wave (1), (2), and extended Wave (3) are completed.
🔄 Price is now in a Wave (4) pullback phase.
🔽 Anticipating a final push down for Wave (5).
🔍 Wave (4) Confluence Zone (Short Setup)
Price is currently approaching a strong confluence zone around 3196, which includes:
📌 Confluences at 3196:
🔴 SNR (Support-Turned-Resistance): Historical reaction level
🌀 Fibonacci Retracements:
0.618 of wave (3) = 3171.6
1.618 Fib Extension (minor internal leg) = 3198.81
Several Fibo clusters between 3195–3200
📐 Dominant Break occurred previously → retest likely
🕯️ Bearish Reaction Expected: Monitor for reversal candlesticks near this level
💡 This is the ideal entry zone for Wave (5) shorts.
📉 Wave (5) Bearish Target Projections
Using Fibo projections from Wave (3) to (4), expect:
Target Level Description Price Zone
🎯 TP1 100% of Wave (1) extension ~3154.80
🎯 TP2 Full Wave (5) extension zone ~3135–3140
📊 AO Divergence may signal Wave (5) completion as momentum fades.
💼 Trade Setup Idea
(For educational purposes – follow your own strategy & confirmation rules)
Parameter Value
Entry Zone 3195–3198 (SNR + Fibo)
Stop Loss 3206–3210 (above structure)
TP1 3155 (safe zone)
TP2 3135 (extended target)
Risk–Reward ~1:2.5 to 1:3 depending on SL
📌 Confirmation Tips:
Wait for bearish engulfing or pin bar near 3196.
Watch for AO turning red = sign of bearish momentum resuming.
🧠 Conclusion
Wave (4) looks to be maturing near the 3196 SNR/Fibo cluster, with a bearish reaction expected to kickstart Wave (5). This setup offers a great R:R opportunity if confirmed by price action. Patience and confirmation are key — don’t front-run until a rejection forms.
📈 Let the chart do the talking. Trade what you see.
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