Gold Breaks Out – Is a Major Rally Ahead or Just a False Alarm?

🌟 Gold Surges 1% as USD Weakens Amid Growing Recession Fears
💰 Market Overview
Gold continues to be a safe-haven asset, benefiting from heightened market uncertainty. However, any positive developments in the ongoing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine could lower risk premiums, potentially affecting gold’s upward momentum.

🌍 The trade policies imposed by former US President Donald Trump on key global trading partners previously caused major volatility in the global markets, fueling concerns about economic growth.

📊 Key Economic Data on the Horizon
The focus now shifts to the upcoming US inflation reports:
📅 CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) are due for release on March 12 and 13.
📌 According to a Reuters poll, the CPI for February is expected to rise by 0.3%. These crucial data releases could have a significant impact on gold’s movement, making it vital for investors to remain vigilant.

📈 Technical Analysis & Trade Setup
✅ Gold has broken out of a parallel downward channel around the $2898 - $2900 range, showing a strong breakout and forming a continuation pattern (CP), surging 15-20 points afterward.

📌 The break of the bearish structure yesterday followed by the sharp rally suggests that gold still has strong buying momentum, underpinned by fundamentals favourable for both USD and gold.
📊 Key Support and Resistance Levels
📍 Major Resistance Levels: $2927 - $2944 - $2954
📍 Major Support Levels: $2899 - $2884 - $2873

📌 Trading Zones
🟢 BUY ZONE: $2884 - $2882
🔹 Stop Loss (SL): $2878
🎯 Take Profit (TP): $2888 - $2892 - $2896 - $2900 - $2906 - $2910

🔴 SELL ZONE: $2943 - $2945
🔹 Stop Loss (SL): $2949
🎯 Take Profit (TP): $2940 - $2936 - $2932 - $2928 - $2922

📢 Final Thoughts
🕵️‍♂️ Tonight, the crucial CPI report will be released, and it could have a significant effect on gold’s direction this week. At the moment, gold’s movement seems erratic on lower timeframes, swinging between highs and lows as the market transitions from Winter-Spring to Summer-Fall.
📌 Traders should remain cautious, waiting for a clearer trend to emerge before making more aggressive moves. Stick to your TP/SL levels to protect your capital.

Best of luck and trade safely! 🚀