GOLD → Short squeeze before a drop to 3150?

XAUUSD is consolidating. The market needs a driver, but due to the unstable fundamental background, traders have switched to a wait-and-see mode. Consolidation could turn into strong movement at any moment. But in which direction?

Gold under pressure: the market is waiting for signals from the Fed and negotiations. The dollar is putting pressure on the market amid expectations of trade negotiations with India, South Korea, and Japan, as well as statements from the Fed.Earlier, the metal was supported by the weak dollar after Moody's downgraded the US credit rating, but growing interest in risky assets and hopes for peace between Russia and Ukraine reduced demand for gold. Key factors — negotiations and comments from the Fed — will continue to influence the dynamics of the dollar and gold.
Technically, the price is in a downtrend and within consolidation. A breakout from consolidation could be accompanied by strong momentum, but I believe that there will be no countertrend movement and that a retest of resistance could end in a decline...

Resistance levels: 3265.5, channel resistance
Support levels: 3206, 3153

The most likely scenario within the bearish trend is a short squeeze and a downward breakdown from the triangle (the fundamental background and economic risks are slowly but surely declining, and gold may lose value). A false breakout of 3250-3265 could trigger a continuation of the trend towards 3150-3120.

Best regards, R. Linda!