GOLD → The market is nervous ahead of NFP. What's next?

1月10日

$FXCM:XAUUSD continues its strong upward movement, but along with the growth there are growing risks of a strong fall. NFP is ahead, and the situation is quite tense....



Fundamentally the situation is confusing, the main nuance is Trump's policy and the hawkish stance of the Fed, which creates pressure on the market, but gold, as we see, is rising due to the growing economic and geopolitical risks associated with Trump's policy, the crisis in the Middle East, Eastern Europe and economic problems in China.
NFP is ahead, which creates additional risks: either an aggressive rise or a breakdown of strong support and the formation of a strong downward momentum.
A weaker NFP may bring back expectations of an aggressive Fed rate cut, causing a broad correction in the US dollar, which could favor gold. Conversely, an upside surprise in NFP and wage inflation data could reinforce hawkish Fed rate hikes.

Resistance levels: 2678, channel, 2693
Support levels: 2675, 2671, 2665

Technically, a strong bullish structure is forming. A break of resistance and favorable news could strengthen the rise to 2700. But, there is an additional scenario: Break of support of the rising structure or 2665 - 2671 may provoke capitulation and fall to 2655 - 2640.

Regards R. Linda!

1月10日

註釋

Additional scenario:
There is a tense structure in the move. Any negative nuance can provoke downward realization.
A breakdown of 2665-2671 may affect the change of local trend

1月10日

交易進行

After a small shakeout, the price goes up and breaks the channel resistance.
The bullish scenario is active