Gold Breaks the Range: Trend Reversal or Just a Fakeout?

XAUUSD – Gold Breaks the Range: Trend Reversal or Just a Fakeout?
After several days of sideways action, gold has finally broken out of its consolidation channel — but not upward. The price action signals uncertainty, while underlying global risks suggest a larger move may be brewing. With US markets closed for a bank holiday, low liquidity could lead to sharp, unexpected spikes — traders, stay alert.

🌍 Macro & Fundamental Outlook
📌 As widely expected, the Federal Reserve held rates steady, but Fed Chair Powell maintained a hawkish tone, warning that inflation risks remain due to ongoing geopolitical instability and rising commodity costs.

🔥 The gold market now hinges on two major geopolitical scenarios in the Middle East:

If the US intervenes diplomatically to ease tensions between Iran and Israel, gold may continue to correct further — possibly into the 3,325 – 3,300 range or lower.

However, if reports are accurate that Trump is coordinating with Israel for potential strikes on Iran, gold could spike aggressively as safe-haven demand surges toward 3,417 – 3,440.

📊 Technical Breakdown (M30 – H1)
Price has broken below the range-bound structure, suggesting a potential momentum shift to the downside.

The EMA cluster (13–34–89–200) is sloping downward, confirming bearish short-term pressure.

The 3,345 level has acted as support, but if it gives way, 3,325 becomes a critical liquidity zone where buyers may step in.

✅ Trading Plan
🟢 BUY ZONE 1: 3,325 – 3,328

Entry: Only after a clear bullish reversal (pin bar / bullish engulfing candle)

SL: Below 3,320

TP: 3,345 → 3,360 → 3,373 → 3,384

🟢 BUY ZONE 2: 3,345 – 3,348

Entry: On price retest and bullish confirmation

SL: Below 3,340

TP: 3,360 → 3,373 → 3,384 → 3,403

🔴 SELL ZONE: 3,417 – 3,440

Entry: If price rallies into resistance with no supporting fundamentals

SL: Above 3,445

TP: 3,403 → 3,384 → 3,360 → 3,345

💬 Final Thoughts
Gold is at a pivotal point. While today’s break could indicate a new leg down, we’ve seen countless false breakouts during low liquidity sessions. Only trade on confirmation — not emotion. Watch for geopolitical headlines and let price action guide your risk-adjusted decisions.

Stay patient. Stay sharp. Let the market prove itself before you do.