Predictive Model Eyes 41.06 Support; Duo Geo's Off-Set Rule #3

SYNOPSIS:

MARGET GEOMETRIES:

- GEO:
This represents a high-probability event, whereby two Geos have a shared 5-second point defined. As per the Geo's Off-Set Rule list, this third condition calls for a limited rally to the price level corresponding to Point-3.

- JANUS (Proprietary Pattern):
A prop pattern is lending support to a probable near-term support at the 40.07/41.06 range. This is often associated with a reversal to the levels corroborating those of the Geo's higher levels of attainment, namely along the 1-4 Line.

PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:

On its own, the Predictive/Forecasting Model eyes an interim rallying that is likely to be limited. However, as per the Geo's overlap, a subsequent rallying of lesser probability could occur as shown in the chart.

OVERALL:

In the most immediate timeframe, price is likely to be tethered within a low of 40.07 and a high of 57.54. If price gains bullish momentum, it should break the 59.16 roof and rally to the height defined in the chart near 85.38 at a maximum, or along the dotted blue 1-4 Line at a minimum.

INVALIDATION:

Look for dashed forecast line failure for a general invalidation, although a significant break below 40.07 would cause a complete revision of this Model's based forecast.

Best,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - U.S.A.

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註釋

19 MAR 2016 - Chart Update:

There remains a high probability for 40.07 to get hit:

Best,

David Alcindor

註釋

11 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains in relative tune with dashed forecast line, however, price only came short of the 41.06/40.07 forecast range in the DAILY chart:

Based on the compensatory Geo Rule, as price reached the 5'' level, then a rally to the geometry's Point-3 is expected to occur with subsequent overhead resistance (Geo's OffSet Rule #3).

If price BACA > 59.16, bullish forecast to the upside remains less probable, but a revision of the forecast would need to be done.

OVERALL:

Price defined a Point-5'' ("point 5-second") as it moved in an adverse excursion against the Geo's 1-3-Line. This calls for a Geo's OffSet Rule #3 application, whereby price is expected to find upwards resistance at a level corresponding to Point-3's price level, namely in the vicinity of 59.16.

In Fibonacci terms, this would represent to the first of Fibonacci's core retracement value of 38.6%.

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)

註釋

28 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price just completed, then reacted to a WW/Geo at its Point-5 (GREEN), corresponding to the anticipated Geo's OffSet Rule #3, which represents the influence of a prior, larger pattern (BLUE):

In gist, the dashed line remains valid, seeing significant undulations in the current price range, as price sweeps positions and prepares for a rallying.

In terms of geometric development, look for the validation of the 1-4 Line (GREEN) - I have not used the Predictive/Forecasting Model for this interim price action, since the overall forecast remains bullish here.

However, invalidation would occur at the BACA < structure low, right below the "forecast" arrow (PURPLE).

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)

註釋

This offers a great example of the GEO's OffSet Rule #3, which I teach freely to the public (see profile).

Thank you for reminding me about this one!

Cheers,

David Alcindor