BTC Price Relative to DJI

2020年4月15日

According to my last post which is in relation to this one, DJI is the leading factor in determining the short term price movement of btc.

That being said, having a negative outlook on the coming conditions of the global economy and being fairly certain we are entering a global depression, btc likely has some more selling to do.

A strong bearish divergence has culminated on the LTF of the DJI, specifically the 4H and 1H are the most prominent, see my linked post.

Further more there is confluence between the recent Fibonacci levels acting as resistance in DJI and btc. This gives more weight to the idea that if the DJI has another test of it's level of resistance in the near future, etc will as well.

Therefore between now and 6900-7000 range would be an ideal place for shorts on btc.

There is also strong reason to believe that Bitcoin as a payment network will have a strong year. There will be large gaps in developed economies where supply chains fail and the payment channels dry up giving btc an opportunity to step in as a facilitation of payments with a lower cost structure than traditional ones offering businesses trying to recover a way to widen margins and increase efficiency.

The decoupling will likely happen after the next quarterly report comes out where many nations will be reporting large decreases in GDP along with stagnated businesses, increasing delinquencies on loans in all sectors, rising unemployment, and many other indicators of a deep global depression underway.

All this makes for a positive outlook for the price of btc amid a grim outlook for traditional financial markets. And if btc grows alts will follow. My official prediction for this decoupling is some time in mid to late May or mid June. A short time after the coming halving of btc.