XBTEUR: Sideways consolidation

Peak sentiment helped us find the top a few times. The last one was a nice bear market in BTC for a few days. I covered my shorts, and bought part of my BTC position (10% of net worth). I aim to have a maximum of 25%, after we get all the scaling news out of the way, and once we have a new weekly uptrend signal. For now, we are under pressure, and we might see a volatile sideways range ensue.
The daily chart shows a potential uptrend starting, which points to a sharp 10 day advance, today being day #1, which could top and reverse back down to support, be it at the starting point of the move like the previous 9 day rally, or maybe to the 2170 mark.

I noticed people were starting to become negative a day ago, when we were hitting support, and traders who were complaining about being in cash, and even worse shorting, started to complain about NOT being in a short anymore, and missing this action. This is typical behavior at turning points. The thing is that sentiment is rapidly switching, turning 180 degrees over the course of 2 weeks...Interesting to say the least. Combine the crowd behavior, with the fundamental information available to us from multiple sources and we can paint a vivid picture of what's going on, and what we can expect from this or any market.

Best of luck,

Ivan Labrie.

ps: this is the signal I sent to my clients to long: http://imgur.com/a/uEDiM "Let's try buying a 10% long in BTC now. We will add back to longs gradually."
評論: BTC acts strong, being accumulated as fear mongering makes recent 100% bull camp give up.
評論: $BTCUSD is likely to chop sideways for weeks to come, but, if we rally further, it can hit $3996.33
Hi Ivan. Your comment is cryptic here. If BTC is acting strong, you're bullish right? So why is this in conflict with the 100% bull camp? We are obviously going up now, whether the permabulls have given up or not. This could be new money, this could be the fact that Segwit will definitely be activated this summer, or just general discontent in the macroeconomic world. Please explain.
IvanLabrie rivet.popper
@rivet.popper, every time people are overall bullish, you don't want to be buying...majority of people get it wrong, when emotions run high.
rivet.popper IvanLabrie
@IvanLabrie, Of course you should never buy into severe FOMO, but where you and I disagree is whether that FOMO has started yet or not. I feel that it still hasn't. Not in the US, not in Europe and not even in Asia yet. It is still just a small portion of the world that even knows about it, and an even smaller portion that has money to risk on it... It is still considered an extremely risky asset even by those with money to burn...
IvanLabrie rivet.popper
@rivet.popper, it doesn't matter...when all is said and done, current market participants are what drive it, the here and now. Not our speculation of the world embracing BTC.
When it comes to market timing, you have seen I am quite accurate, and it is because of focusing on the present.
rivet.popper IvanLabrie
@IvanLabrie, Agreed, but the world has not yet begun to embrace BTC. So as a long-term hold, it is very bullish.
IvanLabrie rivet.popper
@rivet.popper, possibly, but professionals don't just buy and hodl ;)
rivet.popper IvanLabrie
@IvanLabrie, I learned the hard way that I'm no professional. I'm a hodler for now...
IvanLabrie rivet.popper
@rivet.popper, hodling works in a bull market, stay safe.
+1 回覆
What do you think about ltc right now? Isnt it better choice to accumulate some capital till 1st august (segwit for btc)?
IvanLabrie SteppenWolf88
@SteppenWolf88, this is a very popular opinion all of a sudden.
I always go for unpopular trades...I was buying LTC a few days ago, before this surge, and sold already.
+1 回覆
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