Alt Season = Bullshit (but not really)

2019年9月27日

I think alt season is bullshit…for now. But not forever. Read on if you’re interested. Stop here and go buy alts if you’re gangster like that.

I’m not here to burst any bubbles unless you’re pitching stocks, bonds, or real estate…in which case that’ll happen without my intervention. But let’s talk about alts for a minute.

Lots of calls for alt season, lambos, and nipple clamps during the recent surge. I was just as excited. I was also a shilling Litecoin and ETC like crazy earlier this year. Haven’t deleted those ideas, so go back and check my sort-of-bad advice…albeit with trading rules, so no unplanned losses happened. You have a rule based system, right? If not, borrow mine until you have your own. I made some money on alts and I dodged this recent plunge.

Alts seem to surge on the tail end of a Bitcoin bull market. Okay…so is Bitcoin in a bull market? Depends on your timeframe. Monthly, maybe weekly chart? Sure. Macro bull market all day. Daily and below? Definitely maybe.

Find the Bitcoin halving dates in the past or find someone else’s chart that has them marked. Notice the ATH-huge drop-bear market-accumulation-recovery bounce-drop-halving-bull run to ATH cycle. All of…two, maaaaybe three times depending on the chart you use…and they didn’t all look the same. Not a ton of history to go on, so no promises.

Now look at the Bitcoin chart above with a fib. I don’t use fibs for trading but I think they’re great in hindsight. From dead top of 2017 to dead bottom 2018 Bitcoin hit the .618 retracement and was rejected. No big deal, it was a fast run up. Plenty of theories out there on why it was and where we’re going now. Point being this was the only major crypto to reach that level that I know of. Correct me below if I’m wrong.

Now some major alts…

Litecoin made a run at .382


Ethereum Classic barely got off the ground


Ethereum had a little heartbeat but nothing substantial


I’m not saying alts are dead. I’m not saying Bitcoin dominance at this level is here to say. I'm not saying there isn't money to be made trading the gyrations of the alts. I’m just saying look at the big picture. We have Bitcoin halving coming up. If it shakes out like Litecoin did, we have the chance to ride a 5-6x move sometime between now and May WITHOUT many trades to make or charts to babysit. Then the dump, then the wait on mining difficulty to adjust, AND THEN the bull market. When Bitcoin reaches pants-shitting multiples we can’t fathom, maybe alts will slingshot ahead percentage-wise.

For now…break up with your beloved alt coins if you're sitting on them like eggs that'll hatch someday. That's capital you can leverage. Let’s try to catch the Bitcoin halving wave and not ride it down too far when it dumps. Then let’s build a reasonably weighted portfolio of Bitcoin and alts that’ll deliver life changing returns. Then lambos, nipple clamps, all that stuff.

**Side note - nothing wrong with a small bag of any crypto if you're a true believer who thinks it's the next monetary system. I think gold, silver, and cash in hand should be part of that plan too, but that's a topic for HODLingView...which doesn't exist.

Good luck. Please comment with critiques and ideas, especially if you disagree.