First big correction for bitcoin's rally from $6k?

2018年2月21日

One of the two Elliott Wave counts I have has the first minute wave up had a truncated wave (v). This would mean that in that minute 1 covered $2600. I'm also seeing an extended third minute wave. One of the guidelines for Elliott Theory is that when 3 extends, wave 1 and 5 tend towards equality of 0.618 multiples of each other. So wave 5 being $1618 (or 0.618 x 2600) further confirms this idea. This would put our targets between 38.2% and 61.8% of this entire rally, or at the $9550, $8850 and $8150 levels to be exact. Furthest I see this going is 78.6, or just above $7k. Also, our iH&S target was ~$12k.

I also like to have multiple patterns/analysis pointing to similar targets. Queue the bearish crab. 1.618 extension of the CD leg aligns nicely with our 0.382 retracement, or $9550 target.

Trade Summary:
PT: $10,000-$9,500
Stop loss: $11,250
Risk/Reward: 2.75 (better if you wait for a bounce)


Then onwards to $14k-$17k!

*THIS IS NOT TRADING ADVICE*

2018年2月21日

註釋

I don't know why my indicators show up at the bottom even when I have them hidden. If anyone knows how to do this without deleting them entirely, let me know please.

2018年2月21日

註釋

Price bounced to $10650, but failed to cross into the range of wave 1, still valid for now

2018年2月26日

交易結束：目標達成

2018年2月26日

註釋

I still see a shakeout to $8,800 as a realistic possibility, but considering the bull divergences we're seeing on the 4 hour, I think this may be bottom for now. See my updated post here:

We're currently sitting under the 4hr 200 ema resistance. Need to break this for continuation of the rally.

2018年3月6日

交易結束：目標達成

It is possible that this is still a corrective wave b of a flat ABC. If so, the c wave would land us around the start of wave a. If we top out at $12k then we could see an expanded flat and expect wave c to be a 1.236 or 1.618 fib extension of wave a, or $9000 & $8,200 respectively.