My bearish setup for BTC

Been out of the country, going to try and start posting some charts again. Given recent market movements, there is a strong case for the bulls, which I will post following this. I am, however, still in favor of staying in tune with the trend until it looks invalidated. I think the bearish case would be we are either going to consolidate in a sym triangle here for the next several weeks to form our wave B of wave 4. After which I would expect a hard break down into our C wave. Targets would be 61.8%, 100% and 138.2% of wave A. Shown here is the log-fib extensions of wave A and their corresponding targets. Notice also the hidden bearish divergence on OBV, RSI and several other indicators (lower high/higher high). I think of hidden bear divs as winding up for the next move, giving the indicator space for further downwards movement. In the near-term I have a small short position open with stops above $9250 and targets at $8375 and $7750.

Frankly, I'm about 60/40 leaning bearish. We've seen strong 5-wave structured moves up across the market, but I'll get into this in my next post.


*This is not financial advice*

評論:

Hmmm