this impulsive wave up has been showing some tell tale signs of weakness.
1) macd bearish divergence on high time frames
2) price is bieng squeezed up into a bearish rising wedge
3) the order books on multiple exchanges (which are admittedly subject to manipulation) are showing heavy sell walls and thin buy walls making it easy for the bears to push the price lower if they do gain control.
with the data that the charts are giving me I see a correction happening sooner than later. And I don't think it will be a dinky little .236 fib correction that we've been seeing in the more impulsive areas of this run up. I believe that it should correct at least .386 of the move up if not to the .5-.618 area. there is also a long standing support at these levels so I believe its not overly bearish to shoot for a short to the .386 from wherever we get a top which I believe will be at most around the 11800 area, possibly much sooner. My reasoning for that range is because (at least on kraken) that is slightly higher than a double top and wedges are commonly found to throw over, a move employed by an individual or groups of traders holding large amounts of bitcoin to fill their short positions at higher prices and fill their longs at lower prices in the case of falling wedges done by manipulation of the market and easy to spot because of all the indication that price be headed to the opposite direction as well as a weak impulse which we are no doubt seeing now.
1) macd bearish divergence on high time frames
2) price is bieng squeezed up into a bearish rising wedge
3) the order books on multiple exchanges (which are admittedly subject to manipulation) are showing heavy sell walls and thin buy walls making it easy for the bears to push the price lower if they do gain control.
with the data that the charts are giving me I see a correction happening sooner than later. And I don't think it will be a dinky little .236 fib correction that we've been seeing in the more impulsive areas of this run up. I believe that it should correct at least .386 of the move up if not to the .5-.618 area. there is also a long standing support at these levels so I believe its not overly bearish to shoot for a short to the .386 from wherever we get a top which I believe will be at most around the 11800 area, possibly much sooner. My reasoning for that range is because (at least on kraken) that is slightly higher than a double top and wedges are commonly found to throw over, a move employed by an individual or groups of traders holding large amounts of bitcoin to fill their short positions at higher prices and fill their longs at lower prices in the case of falling wedges done by manipulation of the market and easy to spot because of all the indication that price be headed to the opposite direction as well as a weak impulse which we are no doubt seeing now.
評論:
the two converging trendlines can be drawn to fit the current data although its interesting that it tested and is rejecting the bottom support line, don't be suprised by a push above it but if it rejects be ready to short
評論:
bounced off the .236 pretty strong but far too soon to tell if the correction is over
評論:
bounced off the .386 and slightly but we could easily go lower
