Crash Incoming 6? (Update 3)

2022年10月14日

Hi again:

Here is, with some examples (scroll the chart to the left), how the strategy works and how you can avoid crashes and even small downturns in the market.

On top (dark yellow line) the S&P500, 1D timeframe. The chart below is the XLP/SPX using two moving averages: blue line is the 1 EMA and the pink line a 155 EMA.

When the XLP/SPX crosses up the 155 EMA line, it's time to sell the S&P 500 (basically, almost all your stocks, because nowadays almost all move in synchrony) and vice versa.

Of course, there are multiple strategies you can use and even in a downtrend you can sell only some of your stocks, even buy in very small amounts shares or fractional shares (DCA). You can also adjust the parameters changing the timeframe and the EMA for swing trade or for long-term investing.

That's it. Good luck, patience and don't forget, make it simple.

2022年10月18日

註釋

Hi. This is what it's happening now:

Beware of the white and red resistance and support lines in the main chart; regarding the chart below made only with EMA's, of course the general trend is still up (i.e. down for the general market), but we are going down to the bottom wedge of the triangle.
Careful with your moves... To fool you, the major things are happening pre and/or after market, unless you buy for the longer-term, use very small timeframes to time them well and use stop losses to avoid holding the bag.

2022年10月18日

註釋

When I went long in the ES1! mini, yesterday in the 1 minute TF:

2022年10月18日

註釋

You can also use the DXY/ES1! chart, nevertheless you can see that by the time I made my long in the XLP/ES1!, the uptrend was not yet confirmed in the DXY/ES1! chart (only more than 1 hour after):

2022年10月18日

註釋

Before someone asks: EMA's only in the ES1! or SPX charts gives you more false and late signals, i.e., it's more difficult to find a reliable EMA, even more in smaller TF's.

2022年10月18日

註釋

Of course there is always room for improvement, fell free to share your ideas/improvements.

2022年10月20日

註釋

Total indecision right now (consider waiting until you find a direction):

2022年10月21日

註釋

10 minute TF:



Images credit: Stansberry Research

2022年10月25日

註釋

(This is my last public comment and appearance. Thanks for following, good luck and be safe).

From the last "Crash Recovery" idea: "We have reached a very unpredictable moment. A bigger crash is still in play as I stated in my last crash ideas, nevertheless, some data are pointing to a possible recovery in the following weeks or months. At this point, an open-minded approach is necessary: (1) the ratio risk/reward is getting interesting; (2) these after crashes turnarounds are oriented to deceive most people; (3) the market usually recovers before the improvement of the economy.

A little more of attentive patience, waiting for a possible capitulation or a trend reversal (follow the chart above), could be a good passive strategy. On the other hand, a controlled DCA to good companies could benefit you in the following months and years."