Next, I zoom into the weekly chart and I identify a nice pattern with C partially forming. This is the opportunity for me!
If you look carefully, the peak of the C pattern touches the peak of 104.64 in 03/03/2014 if it hits.
Day chart tells me the price action is still with a as the last closing candle. Moving to a lower time frame, 1H chart shows me that there is a gap down last Friday. There is a gap between 82.99 and 83.95 awaiting to be filled. If that happens, it will bring the price action above the 21EMA, a confirmation that I like to see. I have mixed results with gaps, sometimes it close the gap within hours and in some cases (see EURUSD ), it takes weeks and is not closing yet.
On closer examination, using the FIB level also shows me there are several times that price actions is rejected in the 83.90 zone which is nearly hitting the 50% FIB level. That explains the current price action being gap down which also means that there might be a possibility of the price to fall to the 0.236 FIB level or 80-ish mark on the price.
I would be awaiting for 2 things :
1. price gap to be closed first
2. see if price falls to 80's level and rebound
See my chart on USOIL and XOM for further explanation