已更新

A 80% correction to 10 cents in 2024 for XRP?

For exactly seven years XRP price action has been trading inside a defined range as shown by the green arrows. A long or short position from those areas would have been excellent.

For the last two years price action has traded inside an uptrend channel. The channel support has now failed with confirmation. Red arrow.

The failed support follows the double top in price action where market market structure previous broke in April 2022. Orange arrow.

30 cents is the next support level to test now that price action has exited the channel. Should that support not confirm, 10 cents is next.

Is it possible price action enters the channel and continues the uptrend? Sure.
Is it probable? No.

Ww

交易進行

Down 10% so far.
On the 2 week chart below a confirmation candle is printing. That means the exit from the channel and downtrend is confirmed UNLESS the bulls can push price action back inside the channel by Monday June 10th. Failure to do so and it is downwards to the basement.

2-week chart

註釋

38 cents must hold to prevent a collapse to 10 cent target.
Should you see candle body close under this level on this timeframe, exit.

註釋

Messages from some very excited XRP fans this morning. Per last update a strong bounce from 38 was required, we saw that. If indeed a trend reversal is to occur then the 60 cent resistance must be broken with volume. If not, blue arrows... always look left.

註釋

Price action is now at two significant levels.

1) Broken market structure. Look left. Where market structure originally broke, this is now where price action is.

2) The flag support is now backtesting as resistance. This is also true of RSI.

Is it possible price action ignores all this structure and powers upwards? Absolutely.
Is it probable?

Is it probable? No sell signal yet!
Daily chart,

註釋

Hundreds of messages on this idea with the recent rally. The majority of them straight from Kindergarten.

This idea was never going to be popular, there’s far too many “converted”, the faithful know the truth. One of my favourite authors once said:

“The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.”
Terry Pratchett

This is the chart above in a nutshell. Something important is being told, few wish to listen.

12 day

A little closer

Price action rally is arrested at resistance, past support. A support level that is active for over two years.

The takesaways,
Past support must be confirm following the breakout for a bullish outlook. After that, the orange line. This is broken market structure. It must be broken in reverse.

There are two huge levels that must be sliced through with volume to undo this chart.

Emotions are a money killer.

Ww

註釋

To all the bulls messaging, read what is happening. Price action is now sold off in a strong way as price action test resistance. This is not bullish behaviour.

交易進行

Price action prints a near perfect confirmation of resistance on past support.
This is also true for the RSI.

註釋

If XRP price action can close the week with this candle or better, then this idea can be voided.

weekly

註釋

Bulls tucked their tails and ran... notice the 2 week bearish engulfing candle print? It confirms on Monday. If it prints as is, the bear flag is confirmed.

2 week

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Price action continues to trade under resistance as exchanges see a flood of deposits since the month began. Be careful.

cryptoquant.com/asset/xrp/chart/exchange-flows/exchange-inflow?exchange=binance&window=DAY&sma=0&ema=0&priceScale=log&metricScale=linear&chartStyle=column

註釋

So many messages, mostly angry ones ;-), of course there is always a bullish and bearish case. From the messages, the bullish is 99% certain.

Can XRP bulls void this idea?

** Price action breaks legacy resistance **

A resistance that formed from the January 2018 high.

For the bulls, download and install the Golden ratio multiplier. Then go to the 12 day chart. You’re looking for the conditions the blue arrows are pointing to. IF and and big IF price action confirms support on the Golden ratio, a large upside move to 1.10 should be expected.

While that sounds exciting, it is also exactly two other things,

1) It is the 50% level that called the previous two tops.
2) Look again at the first chart on this idea. The extension to 1.10 takes price action exactly to the top of the bear flag. The overall idea generally does not change. Play the game, not the player.

交易進行

With the close of October price action confirmed the uptrend breakdown.

註釋

not looking to gaslight the bulls in the comment section, i.e. all of you...

Zooming in on the larger 2 month flag above down to the 10 day chart we see price action rally into a legacy support channel as a resistance test.

Have a plan.. manage risk... no animal spirits.

註釋

Take profits at 1.60 if you see this level, the 10 cent idea as crazy as it sounds remains in play.
Nothing in the seven years since 2017 of sideways price action has changed that outlook.

註釋

Gravestone DOJI confirmation on Daily chart, past resistance is a 50% correction.
Take profits or eat red.

What is more exciting is where this signal prints…
zoom out to the 3 week chart. This signal confirms resistance at the macro support.

Should price action fall under 70 cents in this correction a large red hammer candle will print on this chart before December.

註釋

Price action is at the monthly market structure resistance.

Short entry from §3.20 would be excellent. Stops at $5 and not below.
3.20 is a full 10x from the bottom.

註釋

A perfect gravestone DOJI prints on the 2 week chart.

Price action collapsed 90% the last time that happened.

10 cents is no longer in play however. It's not 13 cents.

註釋

Price action cannot print under the flag with this amount of bearish divergence as the year comes to a close. You think this idea is dead?
Think again...

5 week

註釋

minimum 70% correction incoming, take precautions...

weekly

註釋

Watch closing over the coming weeks for price action to enter the original flag structure, the wick entered it.

If it does, the 10 cents idea is back on and all of this move in price action was a massive fake out.