XRP is a digital commodity

2021年10月23日

I evaluate XRP as a digital commodity unlike most youtubers/influencers/etc. that evaluate it as a security by market cap with predictions of $ 4 - 10 (short wave five -> possible though). So $ 250 (candle shadow) is my best educated guess, just the time horizon is difficult/impossible to predict. But it will most likely not happen next year.

Once the trading volume gets high, speculators could drive the price even higher -> the potential conclusion that XRP is not a security + fear of missing out could make the extented wave five happen which is so common in commodities as you can see in the three examples. The 1.618 extension gets exceeded, reached or almost reached very often.

A two week close above $ 1.60 (key level) could start the real bull run for XRP.

Also, I saw people talking about an ending diagonal for the wave five which is not possible because it has to be 3-3-3-3-3, unlike a leading diagonal which can be 5-3-5-3-5 or 3-3-3-3-3. And wave one of five already made five waves.

2021年10月28日

註釋

One more thing, split the XRP chart into two parts (time-wise/vertical) in march 2020. On the left side you will see that the five waves tend to be rather short. On the right side the five waves tend to be long and reach out to the 1.618 extension. This is an indicator that XRP was rather traded as a security and since march 2020 as a commodity - most likely unconsciously.