Red arrows is kind of what I expect. Again, this was done very quick on a chart that's kind of messy. Maybe I'll publish a cleaner one later.
Another chart I had before the ATH was reached. Detailed view of levels inside the area of Support/currently Resistance. Will keep updating based on this one.
(provides a good granulated view of Support and Resistance areas and levels)
- Bold Green Dashed Line/Green Area: A general range of price which I consider a Support Area.
- Thin Green Dashed Line: A specific price inside a Support Area which serves as -
Temporal Support or Temporal Resistance, while moving or resting inside the whole area.
- Bold Red Dashed Line/Red Area: A general range of price which I consider a Resistance Area.
- Thin Red Dashed Line: A specific price inside a Resistance Area which serves as Temporal Resistance or Support, while moving or resting inside the whole area.
- Blue Line - Trend based on low prices.
- Small Support/Resistance: Closest area to price, most likely to be broken
- Mid Support/Resistance: Area which would present following Support/Resistance after Small Area is broken. Might take price longer to break.
- Strong Support/Resistance: Area farther away from price. Usually a significant area based on previous historic key prices like ATH, ATH, or consolidation areas. Might be demoted to Mid Areas as price closes in.
Ok... now that I've detailed what I mean with each term, I'm currently looking at how does XRP acts inside the current Small Resistance. I think there's still room for price to be pushed back down to Mid Support and retest the ATH from 8th of May, or at least the Small Support Area.
I've place a Stop at 0.00013763, but I'm more focused on how the Blue Line, based on the lows trend, holds before me actually taking a Bear approach. Also, based on my entry and the Mid Support Area, I would put my target in a place where the Risk/Reward Ratio is of 1.5, and while price climbs, move my stop higher.
This view does not look promising after the 2 red candles. However...
There's a noticeable Hidden Bull Divergence* between the 15th of May and today just like the 8th of May one that ended up on our current ATH (check script and move the chart to see)
* Lower low RSI and MACD Histogram, Higher low price - "Indicates underlying strength. Good entry or re-entry. Occurs during retracements in an uptrend. Nice to see during price retest of previous lows. “Buy the dips”" - http://www.babypips.com/school/high-school/trading-divergences/divergence-cheat-sheet.html
But first, 4hour Chart for a quick mildly-large view:
Price has now moved outside of Small Resistance and came back at it, which should now be renamed Small Support, will do it in some of the following images.
I'm still leaving my Stop inside the Mid Support 2, although it would probably be better to move it closer to the upper end of that area which is 0.00014899, ATH from 8th of May, but will leave it as it is right now for the time being, just to give it some space.
Still haven't modified the chart to keep a reference. But notice action inside both Small Resistance and Mid Resistance.
Last look at Small Resistance before conversion to Small Support. Noticing small tests of Thin Red Lines, (Red Arrows) and then breakout towards Mid Resistance. Wicks pointed by the Green Arrow will be now taken into account for Support later. Test of Small Support here (Yellow Arrow) leaving it as reference for later.
Small Resistance turns Small Support, leaving red area as reference. Price went up inside Mid Resistance pretty fast here. We can see some levels rejected, clearly got both of them wrong (Red Arrows) but no big deal, they're both inside the Area. Price bounced down and stopped right at the top of new Small Support. Then again bounce up and retest of the bottom of the Mid Resistance Area (3r Red Arrow left to right). Yellow Arrow just one more small Resistance level pushing price down again. Expanded Small Support so that it includes the wicks from the previous chart.
Finally, added new Small Resistance, based on the Yellow Arrow from the previous chart and the Red Arrows from this last one. Expect price to break this area very quickly once it starts retesting again. Price has now moved back to Small Support. Green Arrows just point how the Support Levels have been respected. No worries here, I could see price reaching the bottom of the current Small Support Area as well as the smaller one below it, even touching once more the Blue Trend Line. However, I would start planning a stop if it ever approaches Mid Support 2, but I don't see it as likely as the trend continuing up.
Oh hi, what happened here? Obviously Small Support didn't hold and price even went below the Trend Line, now we might be in some trouble. However, it didn't quite reach Mid Support 2, but as I've stated on my last update now is the time to consider our stop. Still, price is bounced at a temporal support way above Mid Support and even higher than my Stop. Patience and a cool head are key here, it is still inside my Risk zone, at or around my entry point, and I've designated some key Support which has not even been touched yet. Caution, patience, and calm. It's called Risk for a reason.
Closer look. There is quite a noticeable Bearish Divergence movement going on here, which if one were watching it in real time would have signaled this dip comming. Notice the Red Arrow pointing at that Small Resistance which was a Support level just a few hours before it fell, 0.00015991. Higher low after price bounced off of 0.00015058, might be good to watch that level.
A smarter decision would have been to wait for the MACD to cross the Signal Line, here it didn't even touch it. Then again, remembering the first paragraph of this update, still well above my Stop. Patience and caution. That's all.
Last line of defense...
Final Report. Last line of defense was breached. Took some casualties, 25% KIA or MIA. Got REKT! Better luck next time. Next update will be a recap and try to find some points to improve. Thanks for following.