ZC Long trade analysis with Seasonality

2020年5月18日

Market Structure:
- ZC looks like forming a Ascending Triangle pattern which is not perfect, also looks like Rounding Bottom
- Higher Lows shows Bulls are willing to buy at higher price
- The Ascending Triangle/Rounding Bottom are sign of Accumulation phase
- R1 is strong Weekly Support level since 2015

Seasonality:
- Corn tends to peak at the middle of year (May to July) according to CME seasonality chart. Link: https://www.cmegroup.com/education/courses/introduction-to-grains-and-oilseeds/understanding-seasonality-in-grains.html
- This has been true for the past 5 years since 2015

Strategy:
- I have strong feeling, ZC going to break above in coming days
- I anticipate to go Long on the first pullback
- Short term target profit at R2. Long term target profit at R3.

Notes:
By using seasonality chart, it increase the probability of trades, especially it has been follow the same patterns over past 5 years
However, anything is possible in market, especially during market recession.
Welcome to comment below your thoughts.

2020年5月22日

註釋

As it does not break above the R1, the idea to go Long is now invalidated. I will continue to monitor before enter any position.