Indecision, inverse divergence, some positive bias

CBOT:ZW1!   小麥期貨
92 0 4
Wheat             market has been struggling to find direction since October. Is it just another consolidation of the long term beari market, or can it be some kind of bottom building?

- Major beartish trend since the July/2012 peak. Ichimoku has been bearish since 2013.
- Market has been consolidatig for almost 4 months now. No lower low since Aug/2016.
- Heikin-Ashi signal is neutral, shows indecision. haDelta crosses above SMA3 but the indicator is stuck at zero. haDelta+ points down, but has no momentum
- MACD is below zero, but no bearish cross right now.
- EWO             is bearish , but value ticks higher.
- Bearish supports are: 440 and 455. A weekly close above 455 would open space for a strategic bull market.

- Ichimoku is neutral, all averages are flat arund 410 level, and Kumo ahead is thin. This means market has not been trending for 52+26 = 78 days.
- Heikin-Ashi has some bullish bias now. 7-8th/Dec market failed to continue bearish . After a doji candle we have the second green candle today (with somehow less convincing lower high -> bit of momentum loss). haDelta+ is above zero and points up.
- MACD showed/shows something interesting too: looks like an inverse negative divergence, which means that MACD made a lower low, while price did not. This is often an early bullish signal. Let's see if MACD crosses up, to confirm more bullish force
- EWO             is neutral.

While the big picture is still neutral, in short term bearis may step back and bulls may get stronger. With a close above 416 market could retest 440-455 strong supp/res zone.

I am playing the long side (from 407.50), without any serious leverage, and with a relatively tight stop.
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