DXY/SPX/DJI/NDQ/BTC 最近雜事很多
週末時間又多在家庭生活
晚上都累累懶懶的
雖然一直覺得不能這樣下去
但是還是提不起精神
不過昨晚的中東情勢突然有了大變化
今天強迫自己無論如何都要來一篇才能對的起自己
Recently, there have been a lot of miscellaneous matters.
On weekends, I have more time for family life.
That makes me feel tired and lazy in the evenings.
Although I've been feeling that I can't continue like this,
I still can't muster the energy.
However, there was a sudden major change in the Middle East situation last night.
So today, I forced myself to write something no matter what to justify myself.
目前因為中東問題
我原本認為在一波的小牛可能不會到來
很可惜的還沒跑就提前結束
當然以線論線來說
還是可以有點期待
但是這都要看下禮拜的國際反應
而且會是短線上的操作而已
Due to the current Middle East situation,
I originally believed that a small bull market wave might come.
Unfortunately, it seems to have ended prematurely.
Of course, when it comes to technical analysis, there is still some hope, but it all depends on international reactions next week. This would likely be short-term trading.
DXY
上篇提到回調 但還是強勢上漲了一段才開始回落
在未發生衝突前回落的幅度可以預期
但是現在看來很有可能會直接續攻
這會影響到美股及其他經濟走勢
縮小日線來看
沒有到我預定的位置才開始回調
但是目前是已經到第一個位置
很巧的是剛好就有衝突發生
如果下週續跌 注意原本的壓力區
（長藍色線底）
應該到這附近就會反轉
繼續往230426規劃的區域邁進
In the previous post, I mentioned a retracement, but it continued to rise strongly before starting to pull back.
The magnitude of the pullback can be expected before any conflict occurs,
but now it seems very likely to continue rising directly.
This will affect the US stock market and other economic trends.
Looking at the daily chart,
it didn't start to pull back until it reached the area I had planned.
But now it has already reached the first position.
It's quite coincidental that a conflict has occurred.
If it continues to decline next week, pay attention to the original resistance zone
(long blue line bottom).
It should reverse around this area
and continue towards the area planned at 230426.
大方向來說
不同模型估算出來的目標區域我已經表示出來
裡面的日期是我今天重新標註的日期
其實這個是早幾個月前就規劃出來的
只是沒有特別註明
In terms of the overall direction, I've already indicated the target areas estimated by different models.
The dates inside are the ones I re-marked today,
but this was planned several months ago.
I just didn't specify it explicitly.
DJI
之前預估的區域有到
畢竟我畫的區域真的很寬（笑臉）
也很順利的在1/2線中徘徊（之前畫的圖編號不一樣）
現在向下突破拉回
在中東升級前
我認為回到2不是問題
但是現在看來可能連1都會是問題
下禮拜看情勢發展
如果很快速的有解決方式
那突破2去摸上方頂部只是piece of cake
The previously estimated area has been reached.
After all, the area I drew is really wide (laughs).
It has also been hovering around the 1/2 line smoothly (the previous chart had a different numbering).
Now it has broken down and pulled back.
Before the escalation in the Middle East,
I thought going back to 2 wouldn't be a problem,
but now it seems that even 1 might be a problem.
I'll see how the situation develops next week.
If there's a quick solution, then breaking through 2 to touch the top should be a piece of cake.
NDQ
好像沒什麼好解釋
上一篇都講完了
大致上跟DJI一樣
上方過一不過下降或框
下方還是先等碰到橘色區域
It seems there's not much to explain.
I covered it in the previous post.
In general, it's similar to DJI.
Passing above is good, failing below or consolidating.
I'm still waiting for it to touch the orange area below.
SPX
忽然發現青色線很管用
破了直接下去 而且還突破原本規劃的藍色水平短線
目前雖然強勢拉一根 但是最後還是收在我認為的牛熊轉換線L1之下
這個不是個好訊號
一樣 看下週情勢
但是就算上漲 要注意青色線
另外很有可能連壓力區都上不去 (+-4390)
原則上 我還是計畫去看下面的框框區域
I suddenly realized that the blue line is effective.
Once it's broken, it goes down directly, and it has also broken the originally planned blue horizontal short line.
Although it's currently showing strength with a single candle, it's still below what I consider the bull-bear conversion line L1.
This is not a good signal.
Again, I'll watch the situation next week.
But even if it goes up, watch out for the blue line.
It's also very likely that it won't even reach the resistance zone (+-4390).
In principle, I still plan to look at the lower boxed area.
BTC
最近上下插針的很嚴重
主要是流動性問題
中長期來說分歧很大
建議是短線操作
因為在流動性不足的情況下
我認為所謂的牛要回來很困難
因為連股市都不好了 要資金進來更難
會有所謂的小瘋牛我同意
但是目前情況真牛不可能
我個人估計 +-38500 大約是可能潛在的頂部
但是時間上有點難達成了
尤其是目前情勢上有困難
Lately, there has been a lot of volatility.
Mainly due to liquidity issues.
In the medium to long term, there is a lot of divergence.
My recommendation is short-term trading
because in the absence of liquidity,
I believe it's very difficult for the so-called bull market to return.
Even a small "crazy bull" I agree with,
but currently, a true bull market is unlikely.
I personally estimate around +-38500 is a possible potential top,
but it's a bit difficult to achieve, especially given the current situation.
==========================================================
這邊稍微提一下
關於中東 個人認為情勢可能不容樂觀 局勢升級的可能性比較高
一方面以色列算是半外來政權，尤其是當美國單方面把模糊空間打破。
這也是為什麼原本處於內鬥中的阿拉伯半島會坐下來談，絕對不是單純因為中國的幫助和談那麼簡單。
從歷史來看 美國在各地放置/扶植的政權原本就是為了在適當時機拖累當地發展。
熟知的南北韓，南北越，東西德，台灣，阿富汗，以色列，烏克蘭等 都是
但以目前來看 同時要開這麼多戰場，而且對手都不是小國的情況下
很容易演變到不可收拾的局面。
過往的情況是沒有匹敵的對手。局勢容易控制
收獲都可以再短期內馬上填補戰爭時期的損失。
而且有效的拖累其他國家的發展。
但是現在美國本身處於內政不穩，且對手(聯盟)國力屆不弱的情況下
搞不好一有閃失，以後看股票就是看亞洲股市了
以目前來說 表態的國家除了少數幾個國家 大部分都屬於美系國家
原因很明顯 利益問題 世界的不穩是西方穩定獲利的基石
所以我判斷 歐洲國家會口頭上雙面支持烏克蘭以色列
但是私底下會放棄烏克蘭轉而引導到以色列
而美國會轉而支持烏克蘭多餘以色列
至於原本被認定最危險的亞洲方面
雖然不願意面對 但很有可能在烏克蘭及以色列最激烈時
再爆發一場預期中但不想面對的戰爭
I'll briefly mention here that, in my personal opinion, the situation in the Middle East may not be optimistic, and the likelihood of an escalation in the situation is relatively high. On one hand, Israel can be considered a semi-external power, especially when the United States unilaterally disrupts the blurred space. This is also why the warring factions in the Arabian Peninsula, which were previously in internal conflicts, have come to the negotiation table. It's definitely not as simple as just China's assistance and negotiations.
From a historical perspective, the United States has placed/supported regimes around the world originally with the intention of impeding local development at the right time. Well-known examples include North and South Korea, North and South Vietnam, East and West Germany, Taiwan, Afghanistan, Israel, Ukraine, and more. However, looking at the current situation, simultaneously opening up so many battlefields and facing opponents who are not small countries can easily lead to an uncontrollable situation.
In the past, there was no rival that could match the United States, and the situation was easy to control. The gains could be replenished immediately in the short term during wartime. It was also effective in hindering the development of other countries. But now, the United States itself is experiencing internal instability, and its opponents (allied nations) are not weak. In case of any missteps, in the future, watching the stock market might mean looking at Asian stock markets.
As of now, most of the countries that have taken a stance belong to the American camp, with only a few exceptions. The reason is clear: it's an issue of interests. The instability of the world serves as the cornerstone for the profits of the Western world. Therefore, I judge that European countries will verbally support both Ukraine and Israel but will privately abandon Ukraine and guide toward Israel. The United States, on the other hand, will shift its support from Israel to Ukraine.
As for the initially perceived most dangerous aspect in Asia, even though no one wants to face it, it's highly likely that, during the most intense periods in Ukraine and Israel, another war that is expected but not wanted could break out.
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