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BTC fake new bull好久沒有特別寫一篇BTC 今天來寫一下為什麼我上一篇寫到有機會到38000 特別是經歷了昨天的fake new bull 先說一下我的觀點 很有機會再上攻 但是要配合美股 而且攻完後很有機會像我先前說的 到點立即瀑布 另外一個滿足的條件是我認為需要再回測一波 it's been a long time since I wrote a special piece about BTC. Today, I'll talk about why in my previous article, I mentioned the possibility of it reaching 38,000, especially after experiencing the fake news bull market yesterday. First, let me express my viewpoint. There is a good chance for another upward move, but it would likely require alignment with the performance of the U.S. stock market. Furthermore, after this potential upward move, there is a high likelihood of a rapid decline, similar to what I previously mentioned as an BNC:BLX abrupt 'waterfall' scenario Another fulfilling condition is that I believe there needs to be another round of retesting “前情提要” "Previously" BTC 最近上下插針的很嚴重 主要是流動性問題 中長期來說分歧很大 建議是短線操作 因為在流動性不足的情況下 我認為所謂的牛要回來很困難 因為連股市都不好了 要資金進來更難 會有所謂的小瘋牛我同意 但是目前情況真牛不可能 我個人估計 +-38500 大約是可能潛在的頂部 但是時間上有點難達成了 尤其是目前情勢上有困難 Lately, there has been a lot of volatility. Mainly due to liquidity issues. In the medium to long term, there is a lot of divergence. My recommendation is short-term trading because in the absence of liquidity, I believe it's very difficult for the so-called bull market to return. Even a small "crazy bull" I agree with, but currently, a true bull market is unlikely. I personally estimate around +-38500 is a possible potential top, but it's a bit difficult to achieve, especially given the current situation. 我先來肢解一下我的方式 先設定一下POE 2020/11/26-今天 然後設置水平線標記 First, let me break down my approach. I'll start by setting a timeframe for POE from November 26, 2020, to today, and then I'll place horizontal line markers. 接下來/And 2020/11/26-2022/05/12 2022/05/12-Today 做完後可以得到一份完整的POE圖表 接下來就是畫趨勢線 我個人一直認為2021-9到12月是假突破 所以我的趨勢線可能會不一樣 但是請你慢慢看下去 另外前底部我是2021-1-4號為起點 連到5-19底部 After completing all step, you can get a complete chart of POE. Next is to draw a trendline. Personally, I've always believed that September to December 2021 was a false breakout, so my trendlines might be different. Please take your time to look at it. Additionally, for the previous bottom, I use January 4, 2021, as the starting point and connect it to the bottom on May 19. 趨勢線完成後 請使用Fib 阻力扇 沿著趨勢線畫一道 After completing the trendline, please use the Fibonacci retracement fan along the trendline 然後在底部 （量最大） 連上2023-3月回測的底部 在一道阻力扇 Then, at the bottom (with the highest volume), connect it to the bottom from the March 2023 retest and draw another Fibonacci retracement fan 之後先把阻力扇關掉 留下趨勢線 我們知道通常三角收斂表態後 開口等於力道 請看白線 Next, turn off the Fibonacci retracement fans and keep the trendline. We know that usually, after a triangular convergence, the opening signifies strength. Please see the white line 這邊證明了 教科書是有用的 (笑) This demonstrates that textbooks are useful (chuckles). 那是否可以用來推論 2021/7月的上漲幅的 （藍線) 同時可以把之前的POE打開一起看 是否發現這個區域 （38317-40151） 非常的糾結 配合上傳統11-12美股轉強加上選舉因素 我才會認為有一個漲幅空間 Can we use this to infer the upward movement in July 2021 (the blue line)? You can also open the previous POE chart and see if you notice this range (38317-40151). It's quite tangled, combined with the traditional strength in the U.S. stock market during November-December and election factors. This is why I believe there is room for an upward movement. 接下來在打開阻力扇 通常上下趨勢交界的時候都有比較大的波幅 只是沒想到會是fake news 但是這證明了一件事情 這個市場目前是被嚴重操作 以目前的情況我認為年底前 配合美股還有 機會 上漲 區域範圍就如我上篇提到的38500 （38317-40151） 但是壞新聞來了 如果局勢繼續走低 尤其是美國情況無法短時間轉向 國際紛爭無法有共識 最壞情況請看下圖 尤其如果真的走向我提到的失落10年 （話說 最近華爾街也開始有人提到這個觀點） However, this proves one thing: the current market is heavily manipulated. Given the current situation, I believe there is a chance for an upward movement by the end of the year, in the range as mentioned in my previous article, 38,500 (38317-40151). But here comes the bad news. If the situation continues to worsen, especially if the U.S. situation doesn't turn around quickly and there is no consensus on international disputes, please see the worst-case scenario in this chart. Especially if it truly leads to the 'Lost Decade' as I mentioned. (By the way, recently, even Wall Street has begun to discuss this possibility.) 當然這個會是很極端的情況下 需要很多情況配合 只是單純分享一下 最壞可能會到什麼程度 Of course, this is an extremely extreme scenario that requires a lot of conditions to align. I'm just sharing what the worst-case scenario might look like."
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DXY/SPX/DJI/NDQ/BTC 最近雜事很多 週末時間又多在家庭生活 晚上都累累懶懶的 雖然一直覺得不能這樣下去 但是還是提不起精神 不過昨晚的中東情勢突然有了大變化 今天強迫自己無論如何都要來一篇才能對的起自己 Recently, there have been a lot of miscellaneous matters. On weekends, I have more time for family life. That makes me feel tired and lazy in the evenings. Although I've been feeling that I can't continue like this, I still can't muster the energy. However, there was a sudden major change in the Middle East situation last night. So today, I forced myself to write something no matter what to justify myself. 目前因為中東問題 我原本認為在一波的小牛可能不會到來 很可惜的還沒跑就提前結束 當然以線論線來說 還是可以有點期待 但是這都要看下禮拜的國際反應 而且會是短線上的操作而已 Due to the current Middle East situation, I originally believed that a small bull market wave might come. Unfortunately, it seems to have ended prematurely. Of course, when it comes to technical analysis, there is still some hope, but it all depends on international reactions next week. This would likely be short-term trading. DXY 上篇提到回調 但還是強勢上漲了一段才開始回落 在未發生衝突前回落的幅度可以預期 但是現在看來很有可能會直接續攻 這會影響到美股及其他經濟走勢 縮小日線來看 沒有到我預定的位置才開始回調 但是目前是已經到第一個位置 很巧的是剛好就有衝突發生 如果下週續跌 注意原本的壓力區 （長藍色線底） 應該到這附近就會反轉 繼續往230426規劃的區域邁進 In the previous post, I mentioned a retracement, but it continued to rise strongly before starting to pull back. The magnitude of the pullback can be expected before any conflict occurs, but now it seems very likely to continue rising directly. This will affect the US stock market and other economic trends. Looking at the daily chart, it didn't start to pull back until it reached the area I had planned. But now it has already reached the first position. It's quite coincidental that a conflict has occurred. If it continues to decline next week, pay attention to the original resistance zone (long blue line bottom). It should reverse around this area and continue towards the area planned at 230426. 大方向來說 不同模型估算出來的目標區域我已經表示出來 裡面的日期是我今天重新標註的日期 其實這個是早幾個月前就規劃出來的 只是沒有特別註明 In terms of the overall direction, I've already indicated the target areas estimated by different models. The dates inside are the ones I re-marked today, but this was planned several months ago. I just didn't specify it explicitly. DJI 之前預估的區域有到 畢竟我畫的區域真的很寬（笑臉） 也很順利的在1/2線中徘徊（之前畫的圖編號不一樣） 現在向下突破拉回 在中東升級前 我認為回到2不是問題 但是現在看來可能連1都會是問題 下禮拜看情勢發展 如果很快速的有解決方式 那突破2去摸上方頂部只是piece of cake The previously estimated area has been reached. After all, the area I drew is really wide (laughs). It has also been hovering around the 1/2 line smoothly (the previous chart had a different numbering). Now it has broken down and pulled back. Before the escalation in the Middle East, I thought going back to 2 wouldn't be a problem, but now it seems that even 1 might be a problem. I'll see how the situation develops next week. If there's a quick solution, then breaking through 2 to touch the top should be a piece of cake. NDQ 好像沒什麼好解釋 上一篇都講完了 大致上跟DJI一樣 上方過一不過下降或框 下方還是先等碰到橘色區域 It seems there's not much to explain. I covered it in the previous post. In general, it's similar to DJI. Passing above is good, failing below or consolidating. I'm still waiting for it to touch the orange area below. SPX 忽然發現青色線很管用 破了直接下去 而且還突破原本規劃的藍色水平短線 目前雖然強勢拉一根 但是最後還是收在我認為的牛熊轉換線L1之下 這個不是個好訊號 一樣 看下週情勢 但是就算上漲 要注意青色線 另外很有可能連壓力區都上不去 (+-4390) 原則上 我還是計畫去看下面的框框區域 I suddenly realized that the blue line is effective. Once it's broken, it goes down directly, and it has also broken the originally planned blue horizontal short line. Although it's currently showing strength with a single candle, it's still below what I consider the bull-bear conversion line L1. This is not a good signal. Again, I'll watch the situation next week. But even if it goes up, watch out for the blue line. It's also very likely that it won't even reach the resistance zone (+-4390). In principle, I still plan to look at the lower boxed area. BTC 最近上下插針的很嚴重 主要是流動性問題 中長期來說分歧很大 建議是短線操作 因為在流動性不足的情況下 我認為所謂的牛要回來很困難 因為連股市都不好了 要資金進來更難 會有所謂的小瘋牛我同意 但是目前情況真牛不可能 我個人估計 +-38500 大約是可能潛在的頂部 但是時間上有點難達成了 尤其是目前情勢上有困難 Lately, there has been a lot of volatility. Mainly due to liquidity issues. In the medium to long term, there is a lot of divergence. My recommendation is short-term trading because in the absence of liquidity, I believe it's very difficult for the so-called bull market to return. Even a small "crazy bull" I agree with, but currently, a true bull market is unlikely. I personally estimate around +-38500 is a possible potential top, but it's a bit difficult to achieve, especially given the current situation. ========================================================== 這邊稍微提一下 關於中東 個人認為情勢可能不容樂觀 局勢升級的可能性比較高 一方面以色列算是半外來政權，尤其是當美國單方面把模糊空間打破。 這也是為什麼原本處於內鬥中的阿拉伯半島會坐下來談，絕對不是單純因為中國的幫助和談那麼簡單。 從歷史來看 美國在各地放置/扶植的政權原本就是為了在適當時機拖累當地發展。 熟知的南北韓，南北越，東西德，台灣，阿富汗，以色列，烏克蘭等 都是 但以目前來看 同時要開這麼多戰場，而且對手都不是小國的情況下 很容易演變到不可收拾的局面。 過往的情況是沒有匹敵的對手。局勢容易控制 收獲都可以再短期內馬上填補戰爭時期的損失。 而且有效的拖累其他國家的發展。 但是現在美國本身處於內政不穩，且對手(聯盟)國力屆不弱的情況下 搞不好一有閃失，以後看股票就是看亞洲股市了 以目前來說 表態的國家除了少數幾個國家 大部分都屬於美系國家 原因很明顯 利益問題 世界的不穩是西方穩定獲利的基石 所以我判斷 歐洲國家會口頭上雙面支持烏克蘭以色列 但是私底下會放棄烏克蘭轉而引導到以色列 而美國會轉而支持烏克蘭多餘以色列 至於原本被認定最危險的亞洲方面 雖然不願意面對 但很有可能在烏克蘭及以色列最激烈時 再爆發一場預期中但不想面對的戰爭 I'll briefly mention here that, in my personal opinion, the situation in the Middle East may not be optimistic, and the likelihood of an escalation in the situation is relatively high. On one hand, Israel can be considered a semi-external power, especially when the United States unilaterally disrupts the blurred space. This is also why the warring factions in the Arabian Peninsula, which were previously in internal conflicts, have come to the negotiation table. It's definitely not as simple as just China's assistance and negotiations. From a historical perspective, the United States has placed/supported regimes around the world originally with the intention of impeding local development at the right time. Well-known examples include North and South Korea, North and South Vietnam, East and West Germany, Taiwan, Afghanistan, Israel, Ukraine, and more. However, looking at the current situation, simultaneously opening up so many battlefields and facing opponents who are not small countries can easily lead to an uncontrollable situation. In the past, there was no rival that could match the United States, and the situation was easy to control. The gains could be replenished immediately in the short term during wartime. It was also effective in hindering the development of other countries. But now, the United States itself is experiencing internal instability, and its opponents (allied nations) are not weak. In case of any missteps, in the future, watching the stock market might mean looking at Asian stock markets. As of now, most of the countries that have taken a stance belong to the American camp, with only a few exceptions. The reason is clear: it's an issue of interests. The instability of the world serves as the cornerstone for the profits of the Western world. Therefore, I judge that European countries will verbally support both Ukraine and Israel but will privately abandon Ukraine and guide toward Israel. The United States, on the other hand, will shift its support from Israel to Ukraine. As for the initially perceived most dangerous aspect in Asia, even though no one wants to face it, it's highly likely that, during the most intense periods in Ukraine and Israel, another war that is expected but not wanted could break out. TVC:DXY DJ:DJI SP:SPX TVC:NDQ CRYPTO:BTCUSD
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1
[BTC] 可能的反轉型態應該先提醒，BTC 日線 & 4H 目前都是上升趨勢 技術分析中最基本的觀念：趨勢會繼續，除非出現明確反轉型態 即使教科書給出明確的反轉型態，還是很多朋友（包括我自己）會忍不住嘗試摸頂 甚至在猛烈的漲勢中，不斷做空賠錢 此時比較合理的做法，應該是找個舒服的低點進場，參與漲勢 就不會出現一直想放空的念頭 若真的想放空，或手上有多頭部位想注意反轉 此時我們應該回到教科書上的基本知識，什麼是反轉型態 以 BTC 為例，此波高點跟前波高點差不多（約 24.3K）確實有可能形成雙頂 但有紀律的交易員不應因此就做空，因為反轉型態還沒出現 應該等前低（以 4H 為例，約在 22.7K）有效跌破後才成立 （有效跌破指的是 K 線收在 22.7K 以下） 此時有兩種策略： 1. 積極：一但收在前低之下，馬上進場做空，停損應該設在前低再次站上 2. 保守：等待反彈回到前低，但突破失敗，K 線又再次收在前低之下才進場，停損一樣 積極策略的風險在假跌破，例如兩三根 K 線後價格很快站上前低 保守策略的風險在沒有回測，直接跌破，會錯過此次交易機會 我自己不會固定選擇積極或保守，而是看市況 像 BTC 近期 4H 向上趨勢非常強勢，向下假跌破的機會比較高 同時更大尺度（日線）的趨勢仍然向上 大環境對多方有利，此時若要逆勢做空，我就會選擇保守策略 另外要注意上述分析是針對 BTC 若是更強勢的 ETH，由於已經高點過前高 此時反轉型態更嚴格，會需要： 1. 跌破前低（1st LL） 2. 反彈高不過前高（1st LH） 3. 再次跌破低點（2nd LL） 以上三點都滿足，才成立反轉型態 （LL: Lower Low, LH: Lower Hight） 當然你也可以說教科書只是紙上談兵，實務操作時需要隨機應變 我只能說好的教科書就是人家實務操作多年的經驗 靠自己隨機應變的人，要不已經不在交易場上了，要不正走在出場的路上 交易這條路還是先求不賠錢再求獲利，才是長久之道
由MichaelWang66提供
BTC Monkey Jump again今天早上一些朋友問我昨天的buy in 我有沒有買進 一直回答有點累 之間發布一篇 順便把中間的位置也標記出來 也細部分解一下我的作法 因為是半夜 所以我沒有做 但是如果我是醒著 我會買進 但是很快就出了 This morning, some friends asked if I bought in on yesterday’s buy-in. I’ve been a bit tired from answering repeatedly. In between, I posted an update and also marked the intermediate positions. I’ll break down my approach in detail. Since it was the middle of the night, I didn’t trade. But if I had been awake, I would have bought in, though I would have exited quickly. 主要原因是量 這個量是不行的 起漲量放的不夠大 而最大量這跟也沒有亮點 另外 CVD 這邊也是 (我自己有畫輔助線） 沒有有效突破 RSI 不用說應該很明顯 所以當下我要不是收定後馬上出 不然我就是拉高止損到有盈利範圍 不過依照現在來看 我應該是在POE位置就放手了 The main reason is the volume. The volume is insufficient. The initial volume wasn’t big enough, and the maximum volume didn’t have any highlights. Additionally, the CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) also didn’t show a valid breakout (I’ve drawn auxiliary lines myself). The RSI (Relative Strength Index) should be quite obvious. So, at that moment, if I hadn’t exited immediately after the stop, I would have raised the stop-loss to a profitable range. However, based on the current situation, I probably would have let go around the POE (Point of Equilibrium) position. 也因為今天這個情況的關係 以及朋友問我 讓我想到我以前畫線時 慣用的標記 陰陽線 （Ying Yang) 因為通常底部也是起漲的開始 昨天註明的SL2 也是底部 反手做多 短線也是獲利的好時機 或許我應該改回 陰陽線的標記方式 Anyways 這兩天有時間再來想想怎麼畫清楚點 回到盤面 這週末應該還是看跌為主 但是下禮拜有機會轉多 我標記了 上方有個 陰陽線 H 這個地方如果能突破站穩2到3天 那趨勢會迎來大家希望的牛 不過同樣的 如果不能 要小心另一個大幅度的調整 另外我也框了一些 我注意的地方 希望對你們有幫助 Also, due to today's situation and friends’ questions, it reminded me of the way I used to mark charts with Yin-Yang lines (陰陽線). Usually, the bottom is also the start of a rise. The SL2 (Stop-Loss 2) marked yesterday was also at the bottom. Going long at that point was a good short-term profit opportunity. Maybe I should revert to using the Yin-Yang line marking method. Anyways, I’ll think more about how to make the charts clearer when I have time in the next couple of days. Back to the market, This weekend, the outlook should remain bearish, but next week there might be a chance for a bullish reversal. I’ve marked an area with a Yin-Yang H. If this area can break through and stabilize for 2 to 3 days, the trend might shift to the bullish phase that everyone hopes for. However, if it doesn’t, be cautious of another significant correction. Additionally, I’ve outlined some areas of interest. I hope this helps you.
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BTC 盤整區間我該多還空？ BTC in a sideways, should I go long or short ?今天早上八點的這根四小時K棒奪取了 12/14 的高點，價格行情會出現一次回調 等價格回調到 41785 - 42180 這個區間範圍中，我們接著觀察價格是否有出現反轉訊號，如果有出現訊號我會在這個位置再次進一筆多單。 剛好這邊也是昨天剛形成的一個破壞塊，加上日線斐波那契剛好也是大約在0.5的位置 我保持客觀的看法推測到這邊會有不少的買壓可以推動價格再一次上升 進場價格：41807 - 42097 停損價格：依當時15分鐘級別形成反轉的底部Ｋ線最低價 出場目標：44697 以上不構成投資建議，請大家在市場交易中小心謹慎控制風險 追蹤凱哥，帶你上車 This morning at 8 AM, the four-hour candlestick captured the high point of 12/14, suggesting a potential retracement in the price movement. Upon a retracement to the range of 41785 - 42180, we'll monitor for reversal signals. If a signal emerges, I will consider entering a long position at this level. This area coincides with a recently formed support block and aligns with the daily Fibonacci retracement, approximately at the 0.5 position. Maintaining an objective perspective, I speculate that there could be substantial buying pressure here, propelling the price upwards once again. Entry Range: 41807 - 42097 Stop Loss: Based on the lowest price of the reversal candlestick formed on the 15-minute timeframe at that time. Exit Target: 44697 The above does not constitute investment advice, and I advise everyone to exercise caution and manage risks carefully in market trading. Follow me for more insights !!
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由smc_trader_kai提供
6
inflection point!!!! 休息了一趟回來 覺得不能再發懶了 Be lazy after my Japan trip, feeling can’t be lazy anymore 先說總結 回到我之前提過的理論 現在很有可能是要走1964～1984這段時期 當然依照時間壓縮的關係 當初的20年可能會被壓縮到1/2以上 大約是5～10年間 但過程會極為類似 如果理論成立 短期內很難進入真牛市 或許會突破新高（選舉前） 但是會被拉回 而且要注意的是高點不過 但低點會破新低 而依照過往經驗 選前一年的下半年股市統計上是跌多 過年後才開始轉強 雖然目前很多分析師是認為漲多回檔 但我個人是認為即將回歸熊市 到明年5月再重啟小牛 而這點在3大指數上週期吻合 個人認為中段期要多留意 當然這只是一個大方向的推測 實際操作上有什麼訊號或型態都按照紀律進行即可 Let's start with a summary: Returning to the theory I mentioned earlier, it's highly likely that we're entering the period between 1964 and 1984. Of course, due to time compression, the initial 20 years might be compressed to over half, roughly 5 to 10 years. However, the process will be very similar. If the theory holds true, it's unlikely for us to enter a true bull market in the short term. We might surpass the previous highs (before the elections), but then be pulled back. Also, note that the highs won't go beyond, but the lows might break new lows. Based on historical experiences, the second half of the year before the election tends to see more declines in the stock market. The strength usually starts after the Chinese New Year. Although many analysts believe in a rise followed by a correction, I personally think we're about to return to a bear market and will likely initiate a minor bull run around May next year. This aligns cyclically with the three major indexes. In my opinion, the mid-term period needs more attention. Of course, this is just a general directional speculation. In actual trading, follow any signals or patterns with discipline. DJI 如預期過3不到2 目前看起來有點支撐注意34727是否會有壓力 另外是否能回到3以上才是重點 現在要擔心是否會牛市結束回熊 簡易抓 最壞情況看紫色及藍色線 會這樣抓建立在AB=CD 及時間週期 如果真的回熊 目標明年5月才會再反小牛進入選舉行情 As anticipated, we haven't reached 3 yet. Currently, there seems to be some support, watch if 34,727 faces resistance. Also, whether it can climb back above 3 is the key point. Now, we need to worry about whether the bull market ends and returns to a bear market. A simple approach is to consider the worst-case scenario, indicated by the purple and blue lines. This approach is based on AB=CD and time cycles. If we really enter a bear market, the target is to see a minor bull run again around May next year during the election period. NDQ 跟DJI走勢一樣 注意點數13841這個區間 但大致上等同 DJI Similar to DJI's trend, watch the level at 13,841. But overall, it's roughly equivalent to DJI. SPX 這個時間點及範圍抓的最準 (今年3月10號的預估) 或許是因為我重心大部分都是分析SPX 禮拜五當日有反彈 要觀察下禮拜是否能突破區間有效站穩 但以目前整體形勢或許有困難 對於SPX 4457~4541 這個區間要特別注意 只要沒有有效突破 市場沒有看多及反轉的機會 對我個人而言 真正定義為牛市的轉折線是1 This timing and range have been the most accurate (predicted on March 10th this year), perhaps because my focus is mostly on analyzing SPX. There was a bounce on Friday. We'll need to observe next week whether it can break the range and hold steady. Given the current situation, it might be challenging. For SPX, the range of 4457 to 4541 requires special attention. As long as there's no effective breakthrough, the market won't have a chance to turn bullish or reverse. For me personally, the true turning point defining the transition to a bear market is at 1. BTC 之前畫的通道破了以後直接來一根殺盤 現在要關注的是能否回到26500以上 如果續跌不能守住25596 目標先看21500左右 After the channel I drew broke, there was an aggressive drop. Now, we need to focus on whether it can return above 26,500. If the decline continues and can't hold at 25,596, the target is around 21,500.
DJ:DJI看空
由Icykerker提供
3
ETHUSD 杯狀帶柄型態變成悲壯殆斃COINBASE:ETHUSD 昨日判斷的強型態杯狀帶柄一夕瓦解QQ 後來看沒有AO沒背離，但也順勢打到上方機構單部位，所以做了短空 後續完全沒吃到，因為原本是判斷強上漲，杯狀帶柄 但是！就在我熟睡之中走出了QM HH LL， 氣死，早不出晚不出，趁我睡覺出！ 我不是死多頭，但目前又打到下方機構單， 進短多的可能較高，停損抓牆邊1514附近，停利區抓158X(小時K大量區低點)
COINBASE:ETHUSD
由EA_JerryLin提供
20220105 小時線H1 JPN225 日經指數若向下突破收盤低於29231則形成小時線頭肩頂~ 由於日線目前處於震盪行情~所以小時線兩波到達28866即可止盈繼續觀察~ 若收盤低於28866~可減倉繼續持倉直至反向突破28866~ 進場原因 : 小時線頭肩頂 止損SL : 反向突破29231 止盈TP : 28866 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If close lower than 29231 then we'll have a H1 Head Shoulders Top~ but D1 is actually on a sideway trend~ so let's take profit on TP2 28866 then keep watching~ or if close lowers than 28866~ partial close and keep until close higher than 28866 Reason of entry : H1 HSTop SL : Close higher than 29231 TP : TP2 28866 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Si la barra cierra por debajo de 29231~ entonces se genera un H1 Head Shoulders Top~ pero en D1 actualmente se encuentra en una tendencia lateral~ entonces tomamos la ganancia en TP2 28866~ o si cierra fuertemente por debajo de 28866~ entonces parcialmente cerrar parte de la posicion y mantenerse hasta cerrar por encima de 28866 Razon de entrada : H1 HSTop SL : cerrar por encima de 29231 TP : TP2 28866
OANDA:JP225USD看空
由leochangchen提供
如何利用pandas_ta庫構建日內短線策略R-Breaker今天是2022的第一天，我在這裏祝各位朋友在新的一年裏交易順利，帳戶翻倍盈利。 我之所以寫這篇文章並不是為了單純的介紹R-Breaker策略本身。我想很多朋友可能已經使用過該策略進行日內短線交易操作了。而我希望通過這個案例介紹如何使用我剛剛發佈的pandas_ta庫進行指標和策略設計。 很多熟悉Python的朋友可能會發現：pandas_ta庫不是Python的開源庫麼？怎麼會直接用到Tradingview裏面呢？事實上，我花了一些時間和精力把Python版本的pandas_ta庫檔轉換為Tradingview的Pine v5腳本，並且利用v5 最新發佈的庫功能，將多數函數進行了封裝。 pandas_ta 庫是包含可在 Pine 指標、策略或其他庫中重用的函數的公開庫檔。 它們對於定義常用函數很有用，因此它們的源代碼不必包含在每個需要它們的腳本中。pandas_ta 庫是公開且開源的Pine腳本庫，因此它在另一個腳本中引用。實際上根據Tradingview的發佈政策，所有庫都必須是開源發佈的，才能被公開引用。 換句話說，公共腳本只能使用公共庫，並且必須是開源的。 Pine編輯器中保存的私有腳本或個人腳本可以使用公共或私有庫。 一個庫可以使用其他庫，甚至是它自己的先前版本 (Tradingview要求在import引用時必須注明庫的版本號)。 如果要使用pandas_ta庫，是通過 import 語句，按照如下格式完成的： import // import <用戶名>/<庫名>/<庫版本> 其中，// 路徑將唯一標識庫。 必須明確指定。 為了保證使用庫的腳本的可靠性，沒有辦法自動使用庫的最新版本。 每次庫的作者更新時，其版本號都會增加。 如果您打算使用庫的最新版本，則需要在 import 語句中更新 值。as 部分是可選的。 使用時，它定義將引用庫函數的命名空間。 例如，如果您像我們在下面的示例中那樣使用 allTime 別名導入一個庫，您將將該庫的函數稱為 allTime.()。 當沒有定義別名時，庫的名稱成為它的命名空間。要使用panadas_ta庫，我們的腳本將需要一個 import 語句： import blackcat1402/pandas_ta/2 as pta 以上是對Tradingview庫的使用方法介紹，下麵我來說下日內短線策略R-Breaker的實現。 R-Breaker策略， 是一種短線日內交易策略，它結合了趨勢和反轉兩種交易方式。 High、Close、Low PreClose分別為當前K線最高價、當前K線收盤價，當前K線最低價和昨日收盤價。通過這些價格可以定一個軸樞價格（Pivot Point），中國很多人也將其從稱為“口袋支點”。 有了“口袋支點”，我們就可以計算買入賣出的支撐位和阻力位，它們分別是： - 突破買入價 = 觀察賣出價 + 0.25 * (觀察賣出價 – 觀察買入價) - 觀察賣出價 = High + 0.35 * (Close – Low) - 反轉賣出價 = 1.07 / 2 * (High + Low) – 0.07 * Low - 反轉買入價 = 1.07 / 2 * (High + Low) – 0.07 * High - 觀察買入價 = Low – 0.35 * (High – Close) - 突破賣出價 = 觀察買入價 – 0.25 * (觀察賣出價 – 觀察買入價) R-Breaker交易策略 - 1) 當日內最高價超過觀察賣出價後，盤中價格出現回落，且進一步跌破反轉賣出價構成的支撐線時，採取反轉策略，即在該點位（反手、開倉）做空； - 2) 當日內最低價低於觀察買入價後，盤中價格出現反彈，且進一步超過反轉買入價構成的阻力線時，採取反轉策略，即在該點位（反手、開倉）做多； - 3) 在空倉的情況下，如果盤中價格超過突破買入價，則採取趨勢策略，即在該點位開倉做多； - 4) 在空倉的情況下，如果盤中價格跌破突破賣出價，則採取趨勢策略，即在該點位開倉做空。 R-Breaker指標用法 - 一般用在分鐘週期等短週期上（我一般用在30分鐘和1小時週期上，兼顧回應速度和穩定性），或者股性較強的T+0品種。 - 最好根據量價、大盤、板塊等其他指標進行雙重驗證。 - 綠色B標籤為做多預警和買入。 - 紅色S標籤為做空預警和賣出。 使用pandas_ta庫檔構建R-Breaker 在腳本編寫開頭需要使用import導入pandas_ta庫，如下： //@version=5 indicator(" L2 Intraday R-Breaker Indicator", overlay = true) import blackcat1402/pandas_ta/2 as pta 將pandas_ta庫命名為pta後，在後續引用其中的函數時候需要以"pta."作為首碼，例如： preclose = callsec(syminfo.tickerid, "D", close, false) nn = ta.barssince(dayofmonth!=pta.xrf(dayofmonth,1))+1 hh = pta.xrf(pta.xhh(high,nn),nn) ll = pta.xrf(pta.xll(low,nn),nn) 以上本別用過pta.xrf, pta.xll, pta.xhh對pandas_ta庫中的函數進行引用。 綜上所述，這就是教程的全部內容，tradingview庫的使用還是非常方便的，能夠大大提高編碼效率，集中在核心策略的開發上。
SZSE:000597
由blackcat1402提供
6
AAVE這裡有個很有意思的策略 也是我近期努力搭建的交易系統突然想到的 一切以穩定收益為主要考量 自從利用資金控管系統後 資金的停損停利對心態的改變很明顯的大幅度減少 以往都是重倉 現在每個倉位 都只有1/10總資金 最大綜合虧損也算得一清二楚 就算我全部倉位止損就那樣 且就線論線 有的倉空有的倉多 以前就知道 上升趨勢 : HH HL 下降趨勢 : LH LL 最近從最基本的畫圖(找高低點畫趨勢取代畫趨勢線)時產生一個大膽想法 如果 這樣是否就能達到穩定營利 精準目標價 很難求 但移動套保卻很簡單 缺點就是要每天看一下盤 我的週期設定再4小時 剛嘗試過1小時 但發現1小時的 趨勢變化太大 為了維持我的生活品質 我想一天大概看個兩次盤就是極限 4小時 睡覺前看 睡醒大概跑兩根 晚上大概再跑3.4跟 移動1次套保應該是綽綽有餘 也不用什麼多餘的操作 作波段試看看 看能不能脫離上班族 : )
看空
由UnknownUnicorn14035087提供
4