ETH Short Review Hell is coming?Just realized it’s been almost a year since my last update.
Over the past year, I went through major family changes and some inexplicable disturbances that left me with no energy or focus to write.
At the same time, I was busy developing data analysis programs, so I had little energy left for writing — most of my discussions happened privately.
Recently, however, I’ve realized I need to practice writing more, and I also want to keep some personal records.
So from now on, I’ll try to spend more time updating this space.
忽然發現接近一年沒有更新？
這一年一方面因為家庭巨變跟
一些莫名其妙的訊息干擾所以沒有心思更新
另一方面是忙這做數據分析程式的建構
所以沒什麼多餘力氣來寫作
都只有再私下交流討論
不過最近發現還是需要多練練文筆
另一方面是做一個紀錄
未來還是會多花點時間來更新
 photos.fife.usercontent.google.com
Let’s start with RSI.
This time, I was a bit lucky.
When discussing with some friends online on October 1, I noticed a similar pattern from before, so I suggested that if the RSI broke down, it’d be best to exit the market.
Luckily, the market continued to rise, breaking up to 4759.
Since the rally lacked strong volume, I sold part of my holdings as it neared the previous high and fully exited when it broke below.
That helped me avoid the sharp drop on October 10.
Right now, I’m holding no positions and waiting on the sidelines.
Here are some of my current observations for everyone’s reference:
先說說RSI
這次是有點運氣
10月1日再跟線上朋友討論時
我觀察到之前的對比 所以提出如果RSI跌破
最好先離場
後來很幸運的繼續向上突破到4759
隨後因為無量所以再接近前高時出脫部分
跌破後清倉
讓我躲過10/10的大跌
目前算是空手等
這邊提出一些看法供大家參考

As of today, October 17, the current price is 3774 — I believe this level marks a potential turning point.
If that man in the U.S. who seems determined to destroy the world could just loosen his grip of control, things might finally start to improve (though that’s probably just wishful thinking).
On the chart, I’ve roughly mapped out the possible paths — shown by the red and orange lines.
If we’re lucky, after the first breakout above 4378, the market might return to normal, followed by a minor pullback (I didn’t draw it since I don’t think we’ll be that lucky) before moving toward 6000.
Whether it follows the red or orange path, I personally lean toward the idea that the market will continue consolidating — probably two more rounds — before the next upward move.
In the worse scenario, I think it could dip again to test the lower red trendline (as shown by the orange projection path).
今天10/17 目前價位3774 這個價位我認為是一個轉折位置
晚上美國那個毀滅世界的男人只是能放下操控的手
或許情況就能轉好 （這是一種奢望）
圖上我已經有大致規劃出可能路徑
紅色及橘色線
運氣好的話可能在第一次突破4378後就會回歸正常？
小幅度（我沒有畫出來 因為我不看好會這麼幸運）
回調後往6000邁進
不管是紅色或橘色走法
我比較傾向會繼續洗 大約兩次後才會繼續上漲
比較糟糕的事 我偏向是會再去摸最下面的紅色趨勢線（橘色預測線的走法）
Now let’s talk about another possible scenario —
this one’s a bit more frightening, especially given the terrifying world we’re living in right now.
It’s also the theme of this post’s cover image.
In this scenario, ETH could break below its trendline and drop to around 2630 before starting a new upward move.
It’s a scenario I personally don’t want to see, but I feel there’s a real possibility of it happening, so I wanted to bring it up for discussion.
好接下來講另一個可能出現的狀況
這個比較恐怖的 因為我們現在處在恐怖的世界
也是這篇的封面
就是ETH會跌破趨勢線到2630左右 才展開攻勢
這個劇本我個人不願意看到 但是我感覺有這個機會性
特別提出來討論
