COMMENT-Dollar's six years of September gains look set to continue

FX traders should be on the watch for seasonality: fundamental and technical factors point to U.S. dollar gains in September.

The USD index's performance for each September since 2000 shows it has risen in 14 of the last 23 years, including in each of the last six, highlighting a possible in-built structural upside bias. While seasonality should not be considered in isolation, it can be useful when combined with other factors.

There are also a number a fundamental factors that point to a stronger dollar as the market heads towards 2024. The U.S. economy remains a leader in global growth. Except for the BoE, the Federal Reserve is far out in front with the highest policy rates in comparison to other major economies.

The USD index is on course for its third weekly close in a row above the 103.144 Fibo, a 23.6% retrace of the 114.780 to 99.549 (2022 to 2023) drop, which would add to a positive rise in September.