Biggest US power grid auction prices rise by 22% to new heights

Prices out of the biggest U.S. power auction, held by grid operator PJM Interconnection, cleared at $329.17 a megawatt-day, roughly 22% higher than last year's record-high levels as electricity demand continues to outstrip supply, according to results released by the organization on Tuesday.

A recent surge in U.S. power consumption driven by Big Tech's data center demand has butted up against roughly a decade of shrinking power supplies in PJM, North America's largest power grid operator, leading to a supply shortfall that has driven up prices in the capacity auction.

PJM's capacity auction determines what power plant owners in the grid network, which covers one in five Americans, will be paid to guarantee that they pump out electricity during times of extreme demand to help avoid blackouts.

Shares of major power-producing companies that receive capacity payments rose on the auction results. Talen Energy <TLN.O> shares were up over 9%, Constellation Energy <CEG.O> shares rose over 5%, and NRG Energy NRG climbed over 6% in trading after the bell.

The payments are a sign of the energy supply and demand balance in PJM, with higher prices typically acting as an incentive for developers to build more power plants.

PJM's territory covers 13 states and the District of Columbia, as well as the biggest concentration of data centers in the world, including Virginia's "Data Center Alley."

The latest auction, which covers the year beginning next summer, is showing signs of a continued supply crunch.

PJM attracted 2,669 megawatts of additional power supplies, which will be added through upgrading existing power plants and adding new ones, marking the first time in the last four auctions that new generation was added.

The additions, however, represent only about half the amount of new power demand PJM expects to see over the period the auction covers.

While prices overall increased from last year, two zones within PJM - covered by Baltimore Gas and Electric Company and Dominion Energy D - saw price decreases.

"Rapid electricity demand growth continues to outpace the rate of new generation," Evercore ISI analyst Nicholas Amicucci said in a note of the higher prices.

BACKLASH

Year-ago auction prices shot up by more than 800%, rising to $269.92 per megawatt-day from the previous year as data center demand crept up. Prices from that auction began to take effect last month, while the most recent results will impact bills beginning next summer.

Those high payment prices, which are ultimately paid for by the public, drew a backlash from state consumer advocates, politicians and environmental groups, leading to several changes at PJM.

PJM says it expects power bills for homes and businesses will rise only 1.5% to 5% year-over-year as a result of the latest auction results. Prices in BGE and Dominion may decline, it said.

The types of power-generating capacity cleared through the auction included 45% natural gas, 21% nuclear, 22% coal, 4% hydro, 3% wind and 1% solar.

Environmental groups, which successfully sued over the last PJM capacity results, said PJM has failed to quickly connect new carbon-free renewable power like wind and solar.

“PJM has failed our communities through its refusal to adopt substantive reforms, completely at odds with its mission of providing reliable energy at the lowest cost to its customers,” said Jessi Eidbo, Sierra Club senior adviser.

PJM said it has approved the connection of 46,000 MW of power plants, many of them solar, but those projects have not yet been built for reasons outside the grid operator's control.