Forward rates gain on lower water levels, dry weather outlook

The Nordic forward contracts rose on Monday, supported by forecasts for drier weather and lower water levels in the hydro-power dependent region.

* The Nordic front-quarter baseload power contract (ENOFBLQc1) rose 1.85 euro to 49 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) by 1033 GMT, its highest level since December 23, 2024.

* The Nordic front-year contract (ENOFBLYc1) was up 0.9 euro at 37 euros per MWh, its highest in more than a week.

* Nordic water reserves available 15 days ahead were 3.13 terawatt hours (TWh) above normal, compared to an over-seven-week low of 1.96 TWh above normal on Friday.

* "It's mainly the persistently dry forecasts, the south Nordic region is already in deficit, and that's adding a risk premium to the market — even with gas prices still relatively low," Lukas Sigg, CEO of Nordic Energy Consulting, said.

* Dutch and British wholesale gas prices were trading in a narrow range due to strong supply from Norway and of liquefied natural gas.

* "This week will turn increasingly drier, sunnier, and warmer with temperatures reaching above normal levels. Next week will likely be similarly warm and dry with no major rain activity," LSEG meteorologist Georg Muller said.

* The Nordic power price for next-day physical delivery (FXSYSAL=NPX), or system price, fell 18.04 euros to 40.39 euros per MWh.

* French and German baseload day-ahead power prices rose on Monday morning due to weaker solar generation in Germany and higher demand in France.

* In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract (CFI2Zc1) fell 0.58 euros to 71.09 euros per ton.

* German year-ahead power (TRDEBYc1) lost 0.75 euros to 85.95 euros per MWh.