Crop Watch: Producers set initial yield expectations as ratings rise: Braun

U.S. Crop Watch corn conditions have made unprecedented strides this season, though producers’ early thoughts on yield potential are only slightly better than in recent years.

Their soybean expectations are relatively much more modest because of the difficult start for some areas as well as uncertainties about next month’s weather.

The first couple of Crop Watch corn fields have begun pollination, and most others should be entering that stage within the next two or three weeks. Recent weather has been very supportive and condition ratings show it.

The 11 Crop Watch producers have been assigning condition scores to their fields each week on a 1-to-5 scale, similar to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s system where 1 is very poor, 3 is average and 5 is excellent.

This week they added yield scores, also on a 1-to-5 scale. These reflect the producers’ best guess of current yield potential where 3 is around farm average, 4 is solidly above average and 5 is among the best crops ever. Condition and yield scores may differ since conditions are a visual assessment that do not incorporate yield assumptions.

The 11-field, unweighted average corn condition score made its biggest jump of the season, to 4.11 from 3.98 a week earlier. That marks the sixth consecutive weekly improvement for corn health.

Prior to this year, Crop Watch corn conditions had never even recorded a four-week string of gains. The 4.11 is similar to the same weeks in 2021, 2022 and 2023.

Over the past six weeks, the corn fields in South Dakota and Ohio have notched the most notable increases.

Average soybean conditions last week also made their third consecutive increase and biggest one of the year, rising to 3.52 from 3.3. Crop Watch corn and soybean conditions each improved in six of the 11 locations this week, and none of the producers lowered ratings.

Crop Watch corn yield potential starts out at 4.07, identical to the same week in 2022 and slightly above the comparable 2021 and 2023 readings. Last year featured the worst initial score, a 3.34.

Consistency is this year’s biggest strength as 10 of the 11 corn fields carry a yield score of 4 or above. North Dakota sits at a 2 because of excessive moisture, thin plants and slow growth.

On the other hand, soybeans’ starting yield score of 3.48 is the lowest of the last five years for Crop Watch. Many of the fields were planted a bit late and had challenging weather early on, and only five fields carry a 4-plus yield rating.

Producers know that bean yields could still be big if August delivers rain. They will have to wait and see how that forecast begins to shape up.

But for now, they are largely pleased with the near-term weather outlook for corn given moderate to warm temperatures and scattered rain chances.

Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.

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