Triple-I and Mililman: Mixed US P&C 2025 outlook amid personal auto strength, GL profitability challenges 

(The Insurer) - The U.S. property and casualty insurance industry entered 2025 with a mixed underwriting outlook, as personal auto remains a bright spot while general liability continues to face profitability challenges, according to a new report from the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) and Milliman.

The Insurance Economics and Underwriting Projections: A Forward View report forecasts a 2025 net combined ratio (NCR) of 96.0 for personal auto, signaling continued profitability despite a slight increase from 2024.

In contrast, homeowners insurance posted significant losses following the January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires, marking the worst first-quarter performance in over 15 years.

General liability’s first-quarter 2025 loss ratio was the second worst in more than 15 years, with little improvement from Q1 2024.

The overall 2025 net written premium growth rate is projected at 6.8%, the lowest since 2020. Personal lines growth is expected to outpace commercial lines by 1.5 percentage points, although the gap is forecast to narrow by 2027, according to the report.

Despite these challenges, the industry-wide NCR for 2025 is projected to rise to 99.3, with broader profitability expected to return in 2026.

Michel Léonard, chief economist and data scientist at Triple-I, highlighted the resilience of the U.S. economy and P&C industry despite tariffs and trade uncertainties, but warned of possible economic contraction or recession. He noted that tariffs have particularly affected personal auto prices, with used car prices rising 7.7% in the first half of 2025.

Jason Kurtz, principal and consulting actuary at Milliman, said commercial auto is forecast to remain unprofitable through 2027, despite premium growth.

“For general liability, the NCR is expected to improve in 2026-2027 but remain unprofitable,” Kurtz said.

“It is worrisome that the first quarter 2025 direct incurred loss ratio was only marginally improved relative to the first quarter of 2024, and that these two results are the highest first quarter loss ratios in more than 15 years. On a positive note, premium growth does appear to be picking up.”

For workers’ compensation, Kurtz noted the 2025 NCR forecast of 90.6 is an improvement, reflecting the lowest Q1 loss ratio in over 15 years.

Stephen Cooper, executive director and senior economist at the National Council on Compensation Insurance, said that with economic uncertainty elevated and recession concerns resurfacing, consumer behavior will be important to watch.

“While employment has been concentrated amongst fewer industries, the labor market has shown resilience and continued strong payroll growth for workers’ compensation," he said.