US natgas prices slide 3% to 2-week low on ample storage levels, mild forecasts
- EIA reports near-normal storage build, ample gas in storage
- LNG export feedgas on track to hit record high
- Gas storage levels 4% above normal for this time of year
By Scott DiSavino
U.S. natural gas futures fell about 3% to a fresh two-week low on Thursday on a federal report showing an expected, near-normal storage build last week that leaves ample amounts of gas in storage, and forecasts for mild weather through the end of October that should keep both heating and cooling demand low.
Front-month gas futures for November delivery 
NG1! on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 7.8 cents, or 2.6%, to settle at $2.938 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since September 26 for a third day in a row.
Traders noted that the price decline, which came despite a drop in output so far this month and record gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants, also caused the front-month to settle below the psychological $3 per mmBtu level of technical support.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said energy firms injected 80 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended October 10.
That was in line with the 81-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compared with an increase of 77 bcf during the same week last year and an average build of 83 bcf over the past five years.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 106.5 billion cubic feet per day so far in October, down from 107.4 bcfd in September and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August.
Record output earlier this year allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual. There is currently about 4% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year.
Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through October 31.
That late-season warmth should reduce gas demand by cutting the amount of fuel used to heat homes and businesses by more than it boosts the amount of fuel that power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of the power produced in the U.S. comes from burning gas.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 99.9 bcfd this week to 101.3 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were similar to LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.
The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 16.4 bcfd so far in October, up from 15.7 bcfd in September and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.
One of the primary reasons LNG export feedgas was on track to hit an all-time high in October was the record amounts of gas flowing to Venture Global LNG's 
VG 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines plant in Louisiana, expected to reach 3.7 bcfd on Thursday, according to LSEG data. LNG plants can pull in more gas than they can turn into LNG since they use some of it to fuel equipment.
Week ended Oct 10 Actual | Week ended Oct 3 Actual | Year ago Oct 10 | Five-year average Oct 10 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +80 | +80 | +77 | +83 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,721 | 3,641 | 3,695 | 3,567 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +4.3% | +4.5% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub | 3.04 | 3.02 | 2.58 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) (TRNLTTFMc1) | 11.11 | 10.86 | 12.89 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) (JKMc1) | 11.05 | 11.03 | 13.35 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 122 | 115 | 108 | 137 | 160 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 39 | 43 | 45 | 44 | 30 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 161 | 158 | 153 | 181 | 190 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 106.5 | 106.5 | 106.9 | 101.9 | 98.1 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 6.9 | 7.3 | 7.1 | N/A | 7.4 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 113.4 | 113.9 | 114.0 | N/A | 105.5 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | N/A | 2.2 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.6 | 6.4 | 6.7 | N/A | 6.1 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 16.1 | 16.8 | 17.0 | 13.9 | 11.3 |
U.S. Commercial | 5.3 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 6.9 |
U.S. Residential | 4.9 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 7.1 |
U.S. Power Plant | 35.8 | 32.8 | 31.2 | 33.6 | 31.7 |
U.S. Industrial | 22.2 | 22.2 | 22.7 | 22.8 | 22.4 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.8 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 75.5 | 74.4 | 75.3 | 78.9 | 76.3 |
Total U.S. Demand | 100.7 | 99.9 | 101.3 | N/A | 95.9 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 94 | 94 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 88 | 89 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 87 | 88 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Oct 17 | Week ended Oct 10 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 11 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 7 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 41 | 42 | 42 | 41 | 38 |
Coal | 17 | 18 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 18 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub (NG-W-HH-SNL) | 2.79 | 2.83 | 2.19 | 2.19 | 3.49 |
Transco Z6 New York (NG-CG-NY-SNL) | 2.14 | 2.00 | 1.64 | 1.98 | 3.29 |
PG&E Citygate (NG-CG-PGE-SNL) | 3.70 | 3.83 | 3.72 | 3.04 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) (NG-PCN-APP-SNL) | 1.97 | 1.74 | 1.53 | 1.68 | 2.77 |
Chicago Citygate (NG-CG-CH-SNL) | 2.56 | 2.70 | 2.01 | 2.00 | 3.41 |
Algonquin Citygate (NG-CG-BS-SNL) | 2.28 | 2.17 | 1.80 | 2.88 | 4.27 |
SoCal Citygate (NG-SCL-CGT-SNL) | 3.22 | 3.48 | 2.60 | 2.47 | 5.92 |
Waha Hub (NG-WAH-WTX-SNL) | 1.28 | 0.43 | 0.59 | 0.77 | 2.91 |
AECO (NG-ASH-ALB-SNL) | 1.05 | 1.18 | 0.77 | 0.96 | 2.28 |
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
New England (E-NEPLMHP-IDX) | 30.69 | 32.99 | 40.14 | 47.35 | 48.44 |
PJM West (E-PJWHRTP-IX) | 45.08 | 52.56 | 41.96 | 41.98 | 45.33 |
Mid C (W-MIDCP-IDX) | 46.42 | 57.59 | 55.48 | 63.89 | 61.73 |
Palo Verde (W-PVP-IDX) | 23.25 | 23.50 | 45.83 | 39.50 | 62.42 |
SP-15 (W-SP15-IDX) | 23.74 | 21.32 | 35.86 | 31.30 | 58.87 |
