Seasonal Market Strategy (SMS)

2023年11月17日

/Introduction
The Seasonal Market Strategy (SMS) is not a technical strategy, it is based on market seasonality and draws heavily from the work of Yale Hirsch, creator of the Stock Trader's Almanac.

/Signals
The strategy is long only. Four different seasonal signals are generated to ensure stock market history, cycles, psychology and patterns are turned into actionable trades. The signals are:

1. Sell in May and Go Away: A strategy suggesting investors sell stocks in May and avoid the market until November, based on historical underperformance during this period.
2. Turn of the Month: Trading tactic that capitalises on the tendency of stock prices to rise at the month's beginning.
3. Santa Claus Rally: Refers to the often-seen increase in stock prices around Christmas and the New Year.
4. Turn Around Tuesday: A pattern where stock markets rebound on Tuesdays following a decline on Mondays.

There is no logic or calculation, just dates for entry and exit. These seasonal patterns are explained in various places online for those who want to understand why they are profitable. Stock Trader's Almanac is a good resource to start with.

/Interpretation
SMS will display an upward blue arrow signifying a buy signal after the candle closes, when entry conditions are met. A label below the arrow will describe which signal was triggered and a number depicting the number of units (they can be deactivated in the style settings). SMS will also display a downwards pink arrow above the candle when the exit conditions are met.

/Strategy Results
The backtest results are based on a starting capital of $13,700 (convenient amount for retail traders) with 5% of equity for the position size and pyramiding of 4 consecutive positions because there are four signals. Because of the large amount of trades, this strategy is suitable with brokers that do not charge commissions, so commissions is set to zero while slippage of 3 ticks is used to ensure the results are representative of real world, market order, end-of-day trading. The backtest results are available to view at the bottom of this page.

NOTE:
Past results are not indicative of future results. The strategy is backtested in ideal conditions, it has no predictive abilities and seasonal trends may breakdown at anytime hence, results from live trading may not achieve the same performance shown here as each trader may introduce subjectivity or interfere with its performance or market conditions might change significantly.

/Tickers
This strategy has been backtested on the Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF with ticker DIA but it also performs well with the SPY ticker which is the ETF for the S&P500.