Fundamental Macro Timeline & Forecast [100Zabaan]

🟢🟢 Fundamental Macro Timeline & Forecast 🟢🟢

This indicator is a macro-level fundamental analysis tool for major Forex currency pairs (USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF, AUD, NZD, CAD). It displays five key economic indicators of both currencies in a table format, presented as an oscillator. The indicator is provided as closed-source and is designed solely for research and analysis purposes (no backtesting, no direct buy/sell signals). It is closed-source to protect our proprietary weighting algorithm for each indicator and to support planned expansion into larger projects; open-sourcing would compromise our business model.

Written in Pine Script™ v6

🟡 Concept of “Red Lines” in Economic Indicators
Central banks and policy authorities define target or “safe” ranges for each economic indicator. A sustained deviation beyond these ranges is considered a “red line” typically triggering monetary or fiscal policy responses. For example, the inflation red line in the United States is around 2%; if monthly or annual inflation exceeds this level, the Federal Reserve may implement contractionary measures (e.g., raising interest rates) to control inflation.

🟡 Indicator Inputs & Settings

• Language: Table language (English or Persian; default: English).
  

• Table Design: Layout orientation (horizontal or vertical).
  

• Display Yearly Averages: When enabled, displays both 1-year and 10-year averages for each indicator.
  

• Convert M1 to USD: When enabled, converts M1 money supply values to US dollars.
  

• Market Restriction: Operates only on Forex pairs combining the eight major currencies listed above. Displays a warning if an unsupported symbol is selected.
  

• Timeframes: Operates on timeframes from 1 minute up to Daily, with a recommendation to use Daily or Hourly charts.
  

🟡 Indicator Output

The indicator renders a dynamic table in the oscillator pane at the bottom of the chart, featuring five main columns:

1. Current Values: The latest value of each indicator (interest rate, monthly inflation rate, GDP growth rate, M1 money supply, unemployment rate) for both currencies in the selected pair.
   
2. Previous Values: The prior period’s value for each indicator.
   
3. Average (1 Year): The 1-year average for each indicator (if enabled).
   
4. Average (10 Years):** The 10-year average for each indicator (if enabled).
   
5. Forecast (%): The percentage likelihood of the base currency (left side of the pair) appreciating against the quote currency (right side), based on the combined impact of the five indicators.
   

Note: Forecast values range from 0 to 100, and values of exactly 0 or 100 are rare due to inherent uncertainty.

🟡 Forecast Logic

1. Baseline Assumption: A 50% probability that either currency will appreciate.
   
2. Adjustment Based on Deviations from “Red Lines”: Each economic indicator influences the forecast according to its deviation from long-term target ranges:
   

• Inflation: Sustained inflation above the target (e.g., 2% in the US) typically prompts contractionary measures (rate hikes), strengthening the currency.
  
• Interest Rate: Higher interest rates generally attract foreign investment and strengthen the currency.
  
• GDP Growth: Positive GDP growth signals a strong economy and typically strengthens the currency.
  
• Money Supply (M1): High money supply growth can lead to inflation, weakening the currency over the long term.
  
• Unemployment Rate: High unemployment indicates economic weakness and usually weakens the currency.
  

3. Combining Effects: The individual impacts of each indicator are aggregated to calculate the final probability of the base currency appreciating against the quote currency.


🟡 Practical Example

Assume your chart is set to the **USDJPY** currency pair:

• Step 1 (US Inflation): Monthly inflation in the United States is -0.15%. We infer that the Federal Reserve will likely implement expansionary policies (rate cuts or money supply increases) to counter deflation. Consequently:
  

We reduce the probability of the **US Dollar** appreciating against the Yen from 50% to 45%.
We increase the probability of the **Japanese Yen** appreciating against the Dollar to 55%.

• Step 2 (Japan Inflation): Monthly inflation in Japan is 0.4%. We infer that the Bank of Japan will implement contractionary policies (rate hikes) to control inflation. Therefore:
  

We reduce the probability of the US Dollar appreciating against the Yen from 45% to 40%.
We increase the probability of the Japanese Yen appreciating against the Dollar to 60%.

We then apply the same adjustment process for the remaining three indicators to derive the final Forecast percentage, providing an overall view of the currency pair’s potential movement.

🟡 Important Notes

• Supplementary Tool: This indicator is a complementary tool for fundamental analysis only. Forecasts are not definitive and may evolve with different time horizons.
  

• No Backtesting: Designed solely for economic research; it does not include strategy results or backtesting data.
  

• Combined Use:n Employ this indicator alongside other fundamental and technical analysis methods; it is not a standalone solution.
  

🔴 Developers: Mr. Mohammad sanaei, Mr. Peyman Mahdavi, Mrs. Hamideh Azari, Mr. Mohsen shabani, Mr. Moslem Balasi, Mr. Shahrokh Nakhaei

⭐️⭐️ Feel free to share your feedback in the comments ⭐️⭐️



این اندیکاتور با ترکیب پنج شاخص کلیدی اقتصادی، تصویری جامع از وضعیت بنیادین دو ارز اصلی ارائه می‌دهد و به معامله‌گران کمک می‌کند تا تصمیمات خود را با توجه به تحولات پولی و مالی کشورها اتخاذ کنند.

🔴 توسعه دهندگان: محمد ثنائی، پیمان مهدوی، حمیده آذری، محسن شعبانی، مسلم بلاسی، شاهرخ نخعی

⭐️⭐️ لطفاً نظرات خود را در کامنت‌ها با ما در میان بگذارید; از خواندن بازخوردهای شما خوشحال می‌شویم. ⭐️⭐️