LT Elliott Wave 2.0

LT Elliott Waves 2.0 Indicator:

According to Elliott Wave Theory, price moves in 5 waves in the direction of the major trend and moves in 3 waves (ABC) when it moves against the major trend. The key purpose and value of elliott wave theory (EWT) is to provide context for chart analysis. According to the book The Elliott Wave Principle by Frost & Prechter: “This context provides both a basis for disciplined thinking and a perspective on the market's general position and outlook.” The benefit of having context is that one can identify and anticipate changes in direction.

In Elliott Wave theory, waves 1, 3, 5 and C are impulse waves (a five wave pattern that makes progress) whereas waves 2, 4, A and B are corrective waves (a three wave pattern – or combination of three waves - that moves against the direction of the larger trend). Although wave A can also be formed of 5 waves, it is commonly formed of 3 waves. Here is a brief summary of the waves:

Wave 3 tends to be the strongest and most dynamic wave – it is usually (but not always) the longest wave but it is never the shortest. Wave 4 is a corrective wave that is typically composed of 3 smaller waves (ABC) and is notorious for being messy and unpredictable in nature. Wave 5 is the final wave before a significant correction or reversal in trend and is often accompanied by divergences (e.g. negative divergences in an uptrend) and exhaustions in momentum. It is also possible for a wave 5 to form after a “blow-off top” pattern. Wave 2 is composed of 3 smaller waves (ABC) and is a retracement of wave 1 – the retracement can be shallow to moderate (23.6% to 38.2%) or deep (50%, 61.8% to 78.6%). Wave 1 is the first wave of a trend and is composed of 5 smaller waves – it usually occurs after divergences (in the prior move) and extremes in both sentiment and momentum. For example, the wave 1 of an uptrend can often begin after capitulation in the price (after a major decline), extremely pessimistic sentiment, extremely oversold momentum readings, positive divergences and sometimes accompanied by a volume breadth thrust. Waves A and C are often equal in measure. Wave A can be formed of either 5 waves or 3 waves - but more commonly it is composed of 3 waves. Wave B is always corrective and composed of 3 smaller waves. Wave C is a five wave impulse pattern.

The Elliott Wave 2.0 (or EW2) chart indicator seeks to simplify elliott wave theory (EWT) in that its main purpose is to identify the potential major trends and corrections. The indicator takes a more simple and direct approach to EWT in that it focuses more on trying to identify whether price is trending or not, and if there is a trend, then the probable wave pattern. It does this by mainly using the structure of the price chart as well as other factors such as momentum, fibonacci retracements & extensions and the relationship of price to its key averages. The indicator then takes its best guess at whether price is in a trending environment, and if so, which wave it is probably forming. This means that the wave count can often depend on the chart timeframe chosen. For example, what may appear as a major downtrend on a lower timeframe chart may potentially be a corrective drop on a much higher timeframe, due to the different price structure of the charts. To keep things simple and to avoid complexity, the indicator does not display the minor sub-waves within the major waves.

The main feature and benefit of the Elliott Wave 2.0 (EW2) indicator is that it can remove most of the subjectivity in chart and wave analysis. It also allows for flexibility in that it allows the chartist to alter the wave count and the position of the wave counts if they choose to do so (within the parameters and rules set by the indicator). As with all of technical analysis, the wave counts shown by the elliott wave indicator are NOT certain or absolute – they are only a possibility or a probability. So the risk always exists of an alternative wave count. It is for the chartist to determine the probable wave counts and limit or control the risks based on their knowledge of technical analysis and risk management.

The settings of the Elliott Wave 2.0 indicator (EW2) are fairly self-explanatory but here is a brief summary:

In the Trend Analysis Switch, the indicator is set by default to a “moderate” trend setting in that it waits for moderately significant changes in momentum before a probable wave 5 is shown (i.e. the fifth wave within the elliott five wave pattern). So for example, in an uptrend, the indicator may show a probable “wave 3” (a blue-coloured wave 3) if the path of least resistance and the likely trend is still to the upside. Once a change in momentum and trend direction occurs, then the indicator may change the wave count to a “wave 5” (a green-coloured wave 5) provided the parameters for this wave count have been met. This default “moderate” setting can be changed by the user or chartist. So if the user wants to change the wave count from a probable “wave 5” to a potential “wave 3”, then it may be possible to do so by changing the trend analysis switch from “moderate” to “strict”. The indicator will likely then display a “wave 3” count until the price reverses some more and breaks below a key support level (assuming the prior trend was up), thus changing the wave count from a “wave 3” (in blue) to a probable “wave 5” (in green). (The opposite of this example applies in downtrends.)

If the chartist decides to delay the changing of the wave count, such as delaying the change of wave 3 to a wave 5, then the “strict” option can be enabled in the trend analysis switch. If the user prefers a slightly more aggressive (or quicker) change in the trend and wave count, then the “aggressive” option can be applied. This is provided the chartist decides it is reasonable or “logical” to make the change. The EW2 indicator will only make the change IF doing so is allowed within its set parameters and rules. The trend analysis switch settings (moderate, aggressive and strict) are largely based on the relative position of price to certain key averages and crossovers, such as both short-term & long-term moving averages which can act as support and resistance.
It is important to mention here is that if any changes are made to the settings of the EW2 indicator (such as moving or modifying the wave counts), it is essential to click on “Reset settings” when changing the chart to a different symbol or timeframe. So whenever a new chart symbol or timeframe is chosen, it is recommended to apply the “reset settings” function in the indicator defaults at the bottom left of the settings section. This will refresh the settings of the indicator back to defaults.

The Elliott Wave 2.0 indicator has greater flexibility options within the settings to change the positions of certain wave counts based on the structure of the chart. This can be achieved by manually moving the wave counts in the first top-section of the EW2 settings, where it says “Move Wave Forward/Back”. By clicking the up or down arrows (on the box provided) the position of the wave count can be moved, based on the zigzag patterns of the chart. So for example, if we wanted to move the position of the historical wave 5 (shown in green on the chart), then we would hover over the box next to “Move hist wave 5 forward/back” and click up or down on the arrows. Clicking the UP arrow would move the wave count position forward on the chart while clicking the DOWN arrow would move it backward. The same can be done with other waves such as the positions of waves 1, 2, 3 and 4 – provided this is permitted by the structure on the chart and the rules set by the indicator.

In the elliott wave indicator, the potential major wave counts are shown in blue and sometimes yellow. The blue wave counts have a slightly higher probability than the yellow as the yellow will need further confirmation by the price structure and momentum.

The starting point for the wave counts is shown as a green “wave 5” – this is referred to as the “historical wave 5” as it is the likely fifth wave of the prior wave (e.g. a prior impulse or corrective wave). The historical wave 5 is the starting point where the indicator starts “counting” the waves. The indicator makes its best guess as to where to start counting from the historical wave 5, but the user has the option to change its position, if required as per the parameters set by the indicator. As a general rule, in an uptrend, the green historical wave 5 should ideally be positioned at the lowest point on the chart (such as the lowest point in the past 300 bars). The opposite applies in downtrends where the historical wave 5 should ideally be at the highest point on the chart (e.g. in the past 300 bars). It should be noted that when the position of the green historical wave 5 is changed, this usually affects the entire wave count. The position of the historical wave 5 (green) can be changed in the settings of the elliott wave indicator (as discussed above). Additionally, if needed, we can also change the label of the green historical wave 5 within the settings to a pink “C-wave” (i.e. the “C-wave” of the prior corrective wave).

As mentioned, the EW2 indicator does its best to make the optimal “guess” as to the probable position of the wave counts, using the structure and momentum on the chart. However, just like any other chart indicator, it is not perfect and it can get the position wrong at times. This is to be expected as we are dealing with an uncertain, chaotic and probabilistic environment when doing chart analysis. Therefore, where it is deemed suitable, the position of the waves - such as waves 1, 2, 3, 4 and the historical wave 5 (or “C-wave”) – can be changed in the settings. The “wider jumps” option can be enabled in the settings for bigger skips in the position of the waves when toggling the positions using the up and down arrows.

The position of most waves can also be altered by modifying the major structure (in the zigzag) using the option in the settings called “Modify major structure”. Please note that using this can sometimes change the wave count as well. This specific setting provides a drop-down menu (labelled A to F) that allows several structures to be chosen in the zigzag (within certain limits). However, in the majority of cases, only the first four options (A, B, C and D) will be required to change the structure of the zigzag. Options C and D provide the greatest variability in the zigzag structure.

One useful method to remember is that often the most effective way to modify the wave count is to adjust the positions of waves 1 and 3 (assuming the starting position of the historical green wave 5 has been decided). As long as we can place wave 1 (and by default wave 2) to a reasonable or “logical” level, the remaining wave counts and projections can usually take care of themselves. Adjusting the position of wave 3 to a logical position can also be useful in this respect. A good way to correctly determine the “wave 1” and “wave 3” of an impulse is to look at its internal structure. If both are composed of five sub-waves (i.e. if each have an internal structure of five smaller waves) then the probability is higher that we have identified the waves 1 and 3 correctly, as both waves are impulsive. The same rule can apply for wave 5. Another rule to remember is that wave 3 can never be the shortest impulse wave but it is often the longest.

One of the new and major features of the Elliott Wave 2.0 indicator are the wave 3, wave 4 and wave 5 projections. The indicator uses a number of fibonacci extensions and ratios of certain waves (e.g. waves 1 and 2) to calculate the probable wave 3 projections as well as the potential wave 5 projections. The wave 3 projections are labelled as “3” and are shown as blue horizontal lines. Wave 5 projections are labelled as “5” and are shown as cyan, green, brown or purple lines. EW2 also makes use of mainly fibonacci retracements (such as the golden ratio) for calculating the probable wave 4 projections. Wave 4 projections are shown as “4” in orange, dark blue and red. Wave 4 has a number of alternate settings which make use of RSI momentum and fibonacci levels. The alternate settings for wave 4 can be used if the user believes that wave 3 has completed and that a wave 4 correction is likely in progress or coming to an end. The setting “Wave 5 in progress” can also be used for this purpose, if the chartist believes that the wave 4 has likely completed (or coming to an end) and that a potential “wave 5” is taking shape.

The “Logarithmic fibs” setting is an option for certain charts and timeframes that require a logarithmic chart to be used. For example, higher timeframe charts (such as weekly or monthly) and very volatile price charts may benefit from a logarithmic setting and therefore logarithmic fibonacci levels. Generally, if the chartist is using a log chart for a specific symbol (or timeframe), it would be preferable to apply logarithmic fibonacci levels as well. So this function can be selected in the EW2 settings accordingly.

While most wave projections (such as waves 3, 4 and 5) will show automatically on the chart, the user can decide to remove certain projections (e.g. waves 4 and 5) to reduce the amount of text or lines on a chart. This can be done by selecting the specific “Hide wave projections” function in the settings for the waves 4 and 5. Extra projections for waves 3, 4 or 5 can be shown by selecting the option for “More projections” for each specific wave.

Another useful feature is the “Wave 3 probability decrease level” function. This draws a horizontal magenta line at a specific fibonacci extension which can act as a key level of support (or resistance) for a probable wave 3. This could be helpful when a new trend is starting and we have the beginning of what appears to be a wave 3. For example, in a new uptrend, the probable wave 3 would have to stay above this key level (shown as a magenta line) if the probability of a wave 3 is going to remain high or intact. In other words, if price were to drop below this key level (in an uptrend) then the odds of a wave 3 would be lowered significantly and downside risk could increase. The opposite applies in downtrends.

The lookback period can be decreased to make the EW2 indicator focus on the much more recent data, such as the previous 100 bars. This can be done by selecting “Use short term” in the settings. This function can be used in situations where the trend may have changed very suddenly and the user wants to focus on the more immediate chart structure.

The setting also provides an “Aggressive wave 3” option for situations that may require the wave 3 to be shown sooner, such as at the start of a new trend. This option as well as others are included for further flexibility in the wave count. When this “aggressive wave 3” option enabled, the EW2 will display a yellow “wave 3” provided the conditions have been met based on fibonacci extensions.
As mentioned, the elliott wave indicator is programmed to look for and identify potential trending or impulsive patterns, and when appropriate, corrective ABC patterns. In this sense, we are looking to simplify elliott wave theory by taking a more flexible and common-sense approach to the wave patterns. So if the price action has broken key levels of support or resistance, momentum is increasing and price is moving deliberately in a specific direction, it becomes more likely that price is in a trending environment (rather than just a correction). Therefore, the EW2 indicator will likely start by showing the initial impulsive waves 1, 2 and 3 (in blue or blue/yellow) instead of the corrective waves ABC (in pink). However, the user has the choice to change the waves from 123 to ABC by selecting “ABC corrective waves” in the settings.

The EW2 indicator also allows the option to “reverse” the probable trend (and wave count) if required. For example, if the EW2 indicator is showing a probable wave 3 or wave 5 (in blue) and price begins to pullback or move in the opposite direction to the main trend of the wave 3 or 5 – e.g. if price starts to break key support levels (e.g. after an uptrend) and then reverse lower in the opposite direction to the primary trend - then the user has the option to change the wave count in the opposite direction (e.g. downward) a bit quicker. This can be achieved by selecting the option in the settings called “Reverse probable trend”. Applying this setting will reverse the original wave count of the primary trend as set by the indicator (e.g. from up to down or vice versa) provided it is permitted by the rules of the indicator. The colours of the wave counts will change to grey instead of blue. The user can also choose where to manually place the historical wave 5 (if required). However, although this “reverse” option is provided for extra flexibility, it should NOT be used very often. It should only be applied for certain special circumstances where it is deemed appropriate to change the wave count from an uptrend to a downtrend (or vice versa). The EW2 indicator does a reasonably good job on its own of identifying most trend changes without the need for this special “reverse trend” setting.

The chartist can apply other methods of chart analysis – such as trendline breaks, oscillators, regression channels, breaks of support/resistance – to determine when a probable wave (or wave count) has likely completed. For example, technical analysis methods such as trendline breaks and support/resistance breaks can be used by the chartist to determine the probability of whether wave 4 has potentially completed or not. In an uptrend, confirmation that a probable wave such as wave 4 has completed will not come until price has taken out the highs prior to the decline (i.e. the highs before the pullback in the probable “wave 4” correction). The same applies in reverse for a downtrend: confirmation that the probable wave 4 has completed will not come until price has taken out the lows prior to the rally (in a probable wave 4 correction).

It should be remembered that the appearance of the most recent wave counts (or wave labels) shown by the indicator, by themselves do NOT mean that the specific waves in question have definitely completed or finished. The same applies with wave projections as they do NOT imply that price has to necessarily move to those specific projection levels. They are merely to provide helpful guidance and education in chart analysis. Nothing in chart analysis is certain or definite as we are dealing with a system that is chaotic, unpredictable and probabilistic. The wave label itself is simply an indication that the most recent wave is probably still in progress, not necessarily that it has completed. Chartists can apply other technical analysis tools and methods (e.g. trend lines, support/resistance breaks, moving averages and regression channels etc.) to increase the probability of when a specific wave has probably completed. The same also applies to past or “completed” wave counts (or past wave labels): they do NOT mean that the specific waves have definitely completed or finished – it is merely a possibility or probability. So the risk always exists that the wave counts may potentially be wrong, and that an alternative wave count interpretation may exist.

In certain circumstances where there are volatile conditions and charts, it is possible that the elliott wave indicator may show an “unusual” wave count. For example, it is possible that the positions of certain wave counts (such as waves 1, 2, 3 and 5) may be in the “wrong” order. This happens rarely so it is not an issue that happens very often. However, if this issue occurs, the chartist can rectify the matter by applying one of the following options: (a) moving and adjusting the position of the historical wave 5 (in green) to a more logical position, (b) applying the “use short term” setting or (c) wait a bit longer until the volatility resolves itself in time. These options can usually resolve the issue and show the wave counts in a “proper” manner. Changing to a slightly lower (or higher) timeframe can also usually resolve this issue. If any changes are made to the settings of the indicator, please reset the indicator settings back to “default” when changing to a different symbol or timeframe.

The user can also choose to enable the zigzags of the waves to be shown on the chart. This can display the wave structures and zigzags, if enabled. By default it is set to off. As mentioned previously, it may also be a good idea to reset the settings of the indicators whenever a new chart or timeframe is chosen. This then refreshes the settings back to its default.

It is important to appreciate that the elliott wave indicator generally requires between 1,500 to 2000 bars of data on the chart in order to display the wave counts adequately and appropriately. So if a chart or timeframe has less than the minimum number of historical data or bars on the chart, the wave counts may not display properly or not appear at all. Certain chart symbols and timeframes (such as the monthly timeframe) may have very limited amount of data on them. Therefore, the elliott wave indicator will likely not appear on these charts or may not display properly. In these situations, a different chart symbol or a lower timeframe with more data on it can be chosen. For example, instead of a monthly timeframe, a weekly or daily timeframe can be chosen. Similarly, if a “study error” message appears on the EW2 indicator, this can be remedied by switching to a slightly lower (or higher) timeframe. However, usually such study errors are temporary and often get resolved after a brief time.

We have allowed for further flexibility in the EW2 indicator so that the user can move the wave counts manually, if required. The chartist can manually move the position of a wave count to a specific bar (or candle) on the chart if they choose to do so. For example, if we want to move the position of wave 1 to a specific bar in the past, we would first tick the box in the indicator settings called “Manually Place Wave 1”. Then we would use the “date range” tool to find out the distance of that past bar from the current bar (e.g. 50 bars) and then input that number (50) into the box next to “Manually Place Wave 1”.

Price action, markets and their charts are non-linear and chaotic, which means that they are subject to uncertainty, variable change and being unpredictable in nature. So we must maintain a probabilistic mindset and attitude to technical analysis. Nothing is certain. Therefore, no wave count is certain or “set in stone”. Wave counts, just like the actions and emotions of human beings, are subject to change. Elliott Wave theory, just like all of technical analysis is about what is possible, what is probable and what the risks are of a particular outcome. The advantage of elliott wave theory, as explained previously, is about gaining an understanding of context and the likely big picture. The indicator is provided in good faith but we do not vouch for its accuracy.

As mentioned previously, chartists should be aware of the probabilistic and uncertain nature of price action and the markets, and therefore prepare to limit and control any potential risks.

The chart indicator can be used on the charts of the majority of markets (e.g. stocks, indices, ETFs, currencies, cryptocurrencies, precious metals, commodities etc.) and any timeframe. Nothing in this indicator, its signals or labels should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any market (e.g. stocks, securities, indices, ETFs, currencies, cryptocurrencies, metals, commodities etc.). The indicator is provided solely for educational purposes, to gain a better understanding of technical analysis and elliott wave theory. It should be noted that the degree of noise and randomness increases significantly on lower timeframes. So the lower the timeframe that is chosen (e.g. 15-min or lower) the greater the degree of noise and randomness and therefore the higher the frequency of false signals or whipsaws. The indicator can be applied to candlestick charts and bar charts.

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