Simple Time-Based Strategy(Price Action Hypothesis)

2月5日

Core Theory: Trend Continuation Pattern Recognition**

1. **Price Action Hypothesis**
The strategy is built on the assumption that consecutive price movements (3-bar patterns) indicate momentum continuation:
- *Long Pattern*: Three consecutive higher closes combined with ascending highs
- *Short Pattern*: Three consecutive lower closes combined with descending lows
This reflects a belief that sustained directional price movement creates self-reinforcing trends that can be captured through simple pattern recognition.

2. **Time-Based Risk Management**
Implements a dynamic exit mechanism:
- *Training Phase*: 5-bar holding period (quick turnover)
- *Testing Phase*: 10-bar holding period (extended exposure)
This dual timeframe approach suggests the hypothesis that market conditions may require different holding durations in different market eras.

3. **Adaptive Market Hypothesis**
The structure incorporates two distinct phases:
- *Training Period (11 years)*: Pattern recognition without stop losses
- *Testing Period*: Pattern recognition with stop losses
This assumes markets may change character over time, requiring different risk parameters in different epochs.

4. **Asymmetric Risk Control**
Implements stop-losses only in the testing phase:
- Fixed 500-pip (point) stop distance
- Activated post-training period
This reflects a belief that historical patterns might need different risk constraints than real-time trading.

5. **Dual-Path Validation**
The split between training/testing phases suggests:
- Pattern validity should first be confirmed without protective stops
- Real-world implementation requires added risk constraints

6. **Market Efficiency Paradox**
The simultaneous use of both long/short entries assumes:
- Markets exhibit persistent inefficiencies
- These inefficiencies manifest differently in bullish/bearish conditions
- A symmetric approach can capture opportunities in both directions

7. **Behavioral Finance Elements**
The 3-bar pattern recognition potentially exploits:
- Herd mentality in trend formation
- Delayed reaction to price momentum
- Cognitive bias in trend confirmation

8. **Quantitative Time Segmentation**
The annual-based period division (training vs testing) implies:
- Market cycles operate on multi-year timeframes
- Strategy robustness requires validation across different market regimes
- Parameter sensitivity needs temporal validation

This strategy combines elements of technical pattern recognition, temporal adaptability, and phased risk management to create a systematic approach to trend exploitation. The theoretical framework suggests markets exhibit persistent but evolving patterns that can be systematically captured through rule-based execution.

2月5日

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