[MP]VIX DIP SINYAL

JPMorgan’s “Bulletproof” Buy Signal: The Historic VIX Formula is Back in Play
As markets continue to search for direction, strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. have identified a powerful signal they say could offer hope to equity investors. The bank’s experienced strategy team believes a market rally may be on the horizon—highlighting a near-foolproof indicator: the critical gap between the VIX and its 30-day moving average.

According to the team led by Mislav Matejka, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX)—commonly referred to as the market's "fear gauge"—tends to trigger a buy signal when it spikes more than 50% above its 30-day moving average. This indicator, they argue, has shown remarkable accuracy over the past three decades, successfully predicting equity market rebounds in every case outside of recessionary periods.

The signal was last triggered on April 10, 2025, and shortly thereafter, broad equity indices like the S&P 500 saw a short-term recovery. Now, the same setup may be forming once again. JPMorgan strategists point out that sharp spikes in the VIX typically occur during episodes of heightened panic and indiscriminate selling—often when the market is very close to bottoming out.

“These types of VIX moves reflect extreme investor pessimism and excessive selling,” says Matejka. “Historically, these levels have marked some of the best entry points for bold investors.”

Analysts reviewing the signal’s performance say it has been tested repeatedly since the 1990s, showing consistent reliability—as long as no recession is in play. While no indicator is 100% foolproof, JPMorgan considers this one “as close as it gets.”

📊 What is the VIX?
The VIX is calculated from S&P 500 options and measures expected 30-day market volatility. High VIX values typically reflect fear and selloffs, while low VIX levels indicate investor complacency or confidence.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-08/jpmorgan-strategists-see-sure-fire-sign-it-s-time-to-buy-stocks