Dowtheory — 指標和策略

Dow Theory Trend Strategy Dow Theory Trend Strategy (Pine Script) Overview This Pine Script implements a trading strategy based on the core principles of Dow Theory. It visually identifies trends (uptrend, downtrend) by analyzing pivot highs and lows and executes trades when the trend direction changes. This script is an improved version that features refined trend determination logic and strategy implementation. Core Concept: Dow Theory The script uses a fundamental Dow Theory concept for trend identification: Uptrend: Characterized by a series of Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL). Downtrend: Characterized by a series of Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL). How it Works Pivot Point Detection: It uses the built-in ta.pivothigh() and ta.pivotlow() functions to identify significant swing points (potential highs and lows) in the price action. The pivotLookback input determines the number of bars to the left and right required to confirm a pivot. Note that this introduces a natural lag (equal to pivotLookback bars) before a pivot is confirmed. Improved Trend Determination: The script stores the last two confirmed pivot highs and the last two confirmed pivot lows. An Uptrend (trendDirection = 1) is confirmed only when the latest pivot high is higher than the previous one (HH) AND the latest pivot low is higher than the previous one (HL). A Downtrend (trendDirection = -1) is confirmed only when the latest pivot high is lower than the previous one (LH) AND the latest pivot low is lower than the previous one (LL). Key Improvement: If neither a clear uptrend nor a clear downtrend is confirmed based on the latest pivots, the script maintains the previous trend state (trendDirection := trendDirection ). This differs from simpler implementations that might switch to a neutral/range state (e.g., trendDirection = 0) more frequently. This approach aims for smoother trend following, acknowledging that trends often persist through periods without immediate new HH/HL or LH/LL confirmations. Trend Change Detection: The script monitors changes in the trendDirection variable. changedToUp becomes true when the trend shifts to an Uptrend (from Downtrend or initial state). changedToDown becomes true when the trend shifts to a Downtrend (from Uptrend or initial state). Visualizations Background Color: The chart background is colored to reflect the currently identified trend: Blue: Uptrend (trendDirection == 1) Red: Downtrend (trendDirection == -1) Gray: Initial state or undetermined (trendDirection == 0) Pivot Points (Optional): Small triangles (shape.triangledown/shape.triangleup) can be displayed above pivot highs and below pivot lows if showPivotPoints is enabled. Trend Change Signals (Optional): Labels ("▲ UP" / "▼ DOWN") can be displayed when a trend change is confirmed (changedToUp / changedToDown) if showTrendChange is enabled. These visually mark the potential entry points for the strategy. Strategy Logic Entry Conditions: Enters a long position (strategy.long) using strategy.entry("L", ...) when changedToUp becomes true. Enters a short position (strategy.short) using strategy.entry("S", ...) when changedToDown becomes true. Position Management: The script uses strategy.entry(), which automatically handles position reversal. If the strategy is long and a short signal occurs, strategy.entry() will close the long position and open a new short one (and vice-versa). Inputs pivotLookback: The number of bars on each side to confirm a pivot high/low. Higher values mean pivots are confirmed later but may be more significant. showPivotPoints: Toggle visibility of pivot point markers. showTrendChange: Toggle visibility of the trend change labels ("▲ UP" / "▼ DOWN"). Key Improvements from Original Smoother Trend Logic: The trend state persists unless a confirmed reversal pattern (opposite HH/HL or LH/LL) occurs, reducing potential whipsaws in choppy markets compared to logic that frequently resets to neutral. Strategy Implementation: Converted from a pure indicator to a strategy capable of executing backtests and potentially live trades based on the Dow Theory trend changes. Disclaimer Dow Theory signals are inherently lagging due to the nature of pivot confirmation. The effectiveness of the strategy depends heavily on the market conditions and the chosen pivotLookback setting. This script serves as a basic template. Always perform thorough backtesting and implement proper risk management (e.g., stop-loss, take-profit, position sizing) before considering any live trading.

Dow Theory Swing Trading-Dexter This Pine Script strategy that implements a basic price action-based trading system inspired by Dow Theory, focusing on swing highs and swing lows. This strategy will generate buy and sell signals based on the formation of higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) for an uptrend, and lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) for a downtrend. Swing Highs and Swing Lows: The script identifies swing highs and swing lows using the ta.highest and ta.lowest functions over a specified lookback period. A swing high is identified when the high of the current bar is the highest high over the lookback period. A swing low is identified when the low of the current bar is the lowest low over the lookback period. Trend Detection: An uptrend is detected when the current low is higher than the last identified swing low. A downtrend is detected when the current high is lower than the last identified swing high. Buy and Sell Signals: A buy signal is generated when the price closes above the last swing high during an uptrend. A sell signal is generated when the price closes below the last swing low during a downtrend. Plotting: Swing highs and swing lows are plotted on the chart using plotshape. Buy and sell signals are also plotted on the chart for visual reference. How to Use: Copy and paste the script into the Pine Script editor in TradingView. Adjust the lookback period as needed to suit your trading style and timeframe. Apply the script to your chart and it will generate buy and sell signals based on the price action. NOTE: Please uncheck the all the unwanted symbol from chart for clear view .

REAL STRATEGY : Dow_Factor_MFI/RSI_DVOG_Strategy I'm actually one of those who think it's more important to extract clues from indicators than strategy, but I wanted to test the data about the probability and dow factor I've shared for a long time. Usually, Bitcoin is used as an eye stain for strategy success, since the graph has increased significantly from the beginning. To prevent this, I used a commission and in the last lines of document I shared Bitmex's Bitcoin and Ethereum 1W test results. I don't think there's a factor to repaint. ( Warn me if u see or observe ) I considered Bitcoin because I found working with liquid parities much more realistic. Ethereum and Bitmex have been featured as a spot and may soon find a place at the CME , so I've evaluated the Ethereum . But since the Ethereum Bitmex was also spot new, I deleted results that were less than 10 closed trades. Since the Dow Theory also looks at the harmony in the indices, just try it in the Cryptocurrency market. Use as indicator in other markets. Support with channels, trend lines with big periods and other supportive indicators. And my personal suggestion : Use this script and indicator TF : 4H and above. Specifications : Commission. ( % 0.125 ) Switchable Methods ( Relative Strength Index / Money Flow Index ) Alarms. (Buy / Sell ) Position closure when horizontal market rates weighs. Progressive gradual buy/sell alarms. Clean code layout that will not cause repaint. (Caution : source = close ) Switchable barcolor option (I / 0 ) *****Test results :***** drive.google.com Summary: It was a realistic test. It has achieved great success in some markets, but as I mentioned earlier, use it only to gain insight into the price movements of cryptos. Use as indicator in other markets. This code is open source under the MIT license. If you have any improvements or corrections to suggest, please send me a pull request via the github repository : github.com Stay tuned ! Noldo.