Short in Bollinger Band Down trend (Weekly and Daily) // © PlanTradePlanMM
// 6/14/2020
// ---------------------------------------------------
// Name: Short in Bollinger Band Down trend (Weekly and Daily)
// ---------------------------------------------------
// Key Points in this study:
// 1. Short in BB Lower band, probability of price going down is more than 50%
// 2. Short at the top 1/4 of Lower band (EMA - Lower line), Stop is EMA, tartget is Lower line; it matches risk:/reward=1:3 naturally
//
// Draw Lines:
// BB Lower : is the Target (Black line)
// BB EMA : is the initial Stop (Black line)
// ShortLine : EMA - 1/4 of (Stop-target), which matches risk:/reward=1:3
// Prepare Zone : between EMA and ShortLine
// shortPrice : Blue dot line only showing when has Short position, Which shows entry price.
// StopPrice : Black dot line only showing when has Short position, Which shows updated stop price.
//
// Add SMA50 to filter the trend. Price <= SMA, allow to short
//
// What (Condition): in BB down trend band
// When (Price action): Price cross below ShortLine;
// How (Trading Plan): Short at ShortLine;
// Initial Stop is EMA;
// Initial Target is BB Lower Line;
// FollowUp: if price moves down first, and EMA is below Short Price. Move stop to EMA, At least "make even" in this trade;
// if Price touched Short Line again and goes down, new EMA will be the updated stop
//
// Exit: 1. Initial stop -- "Stop" when down first, Close above stop
// 2. Target reached -- "TR" when down quickly, Target reached
// 3. make even -- "ME" when small down and up, Exit at Entry Price
// 4. Small Winner -- "SM" when EMA below Entry price, Exit when Close above EMA
//
// --------------
// Because there are too many flags in up trend study already, I created this down trend script separately.
// Uptrend study is good for SPY, QQQ, and strong stocks.
// Downtrend Study is good for weak ETF, stock, and (-2x, -3x) ETFs, such as FAZ, UVXY, USO, XOP, AAL, CCL
// -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Back test Weekly and daily chart for SPY, QQQ, XOP, AAL, BA, MMM, FAZ, UVXY
// The best sample is FAZ Weekly chart.
// When SPY and QQQ are good in long term up trend, these (-2x, -3x) ETFs are always going down in long term.
// Some of them are not allowed to short. I used option Put/Put spread for the short entry.
//
在腳本中搜尋"创科技etf"
Market BreadthMarket breadth is a technical analysis technique that gauges the strength or weakness of moves in a major index.
Supported index ETF: SPY, NDX, DIA, IWM, OEF, MDY, IWB, IWV.
Supported sector index ETF: XLK, XLC, XLY, XLP, XLV, XLU, XLF, XLRE, XLE, XLB, XLI.
Price MapperPrice Mapper is a dynamic trading tool designed to map strike prices between two related financial instruments using real-time ratio calculations. The indicator displays a customizable table showing strike levels for your primary ticker alongside their equivalent mapped prices for a secondary instrument, making it invaluable for cross-market analysis, pairs trading, and hedging strategies. Whether you're comparing an ETF to its underlying futures, analyzing currency pairs, or exploring relationships between correlated assets, Price Mapper provides instant visual mapping of how price movements in one instrument translate to equivalent levels in another. The ratio calculation updates daily using 12:00 PM New York time closing prices, ensuring consistent reference points while maintaining relevance to current market conditions.
The tool automatically centers around the current market price and allows complete customization of display parameters including strike increments, number of price levels, decimal precision, and table positioning. Advanced color customization options let you highlight the current price level and adjust the appearance to match your trading setup. Price Mapper eliminates the mental math typically required when trading related instruments, instantly showing you equivalent entry and exit levels across different markets. This makes it particularly powerful for options traders working with ETFs and futures, forex traders analyzing currency correlations, or any trader looking to understand precise price relationships between connected financial instruments.
5DMA Optional HMA Entry📈 5DMA Optional HMA Entry Signal – Precision-Based Momentum Trigger
Category: Trend-Following / Reversal Timing / Entry Optimization
🔍 Overview:
The 5DMA Optional HMA Entry indicator is a refined price-action entry tool built for traders who rely on clean trend alignment and precise timing. This script identifies breakout-style entry points when price gains upward momentum relative to short-term moving averages — specifically the 5-day Simple Moving Average (5DMA) and an optional Hull Moving Average (HMA).
Whether you're swing trading stocks, scalping ETFs like UVXY or VXX, or looking for pullback recovery entries, this tool helps time your long entries with clarity and flexibility.
⚙️ Core Logic:
Primary Condition (Always On):
🔹 Close must be above the 5DMA – ensuring upward short-term momentum is confirmed.
Optional Condition (Toggled by User):
🔹 Close above the HMA – adds slope-responsive trend filtering for smoother setups. Enable or disable via checkbox.
Bonus Entry Filter (Optional):
🔹 Green Candle Wick Breakout – optional pattern logic that detects bullish momentum when the high pierces above both MAs, with a green body.
Reset Mechanism:
🔁 Signal resets only after price closes back below all active MAs (5DMA and HMA if enabled), reducing noise and avoiding repeated signals during chop.
🧠 Why This Works:
This indicator captures the kind of setups that professional traders look for:
Momentum crossovers without chasing late.
Mean reversion snapbacks that align with fresh bullish moves.
Avoids premature entries by requiring clear structure above moving averages.
Optional HMA filter allows adaptability: turn it off during choppy markets or range conditions, and on during trending environments.
🔔 Features:
✅ Adjustable HMA Length
✅ Enable/Disable HMA Filter
✅ Optional Green Wick Breakout Detection
✅ Visual “Buy” label plotted below qualifying bars
✅ Real-time Alert Conditions for automated trading or manual alerts
🎯 Use Cases:
VIX-based ETFs (e.g., UVXY, VXX): Catch early breakouts aligned with volatility spikes.
Growth Stocks: Time pullback entries during bullish runs.
Futures/Indices: Combine with macro levels for intraday scalps or swing setups.
Overlay on Trend Filters: Combine with RSI, MACD, or VWAP for confirmation.
🛠️ Recommended Settings:
For smooth setups in volatile names, use:
HMA Length: 20
Keep green wick filter ON
For fast momentum trades, disable the HMA filter to act on 5DMA alone.
⭐ Final Thoughts:
This script is built to serve both systematic traders and discretionary scalpers who want actionable signals without noise or lag. The toggleable HMA feature lets you adjust sensitivity depending on market conditions — a key edge in adapting to volatility cycles.
Perfect for those who value clean, non-repainting entries rooted in logical structure.
DCA Investment Tracker Pro [tradeviZion]DCA Investment Tracker Pro: Educational DCA Analysis Tool
An educational indicator that helps analyze Dollar-Cost Averaging strategies by comparing actual performance with historical data calculations.
---
💡 Why I Created This Indicator
As someone who practices Dollar-Cost Averaging, I was frustrated with constantly switching between spreadsheets, calculators, and charts just to understand how my investments were really performing. I wanted to see everything in one place - my actual performance, what I should expect based on historical data, and most importantly, visualize where my strategy could take me over the long term .
What really motivated me was watching friends and family underestimate the incredible power of consistent investing. When Napoleon Bonaparte first learned about compound interest, he reportedly exclaimed "I wonder it has not swallowed the world" - and he was right! Yet most people can't visualize how their $500 monthly contributions today could become substantial wealth decades later.
Traditional DCA tracking tools exist, but they share similar limitations:
Require manual data entry and complex spreadsheets
Use fixed assumptions that don't reflect real market behavior
Can't show future projections overlaid on actual price charts
Lose the visual context of what's happening in the market
Make compound growth feel abstract rather than tangible
I wanted to create something different - a tool that automatically analyzes real market history, detects volatility periods, and shows you both current performance AND educational projections based on historical patterns right on your TradingView charts. As Warren Buffett said: "Someone's sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago." This tool helps you visualize your financial tree growing over time.
This isn't just another calculator - it's a visualization tool that makes the magic of compound growth impossible to ignore.
---
🎯 What This Indicator Does
This educational indicator provides DCA analysis tools. Users can input investment scenarios to study:
Theoretical Performance: Educational calculations based on historical return data
Comparative Analysis: Study differences between actual and theoretical scenarios
Historical Projections: Theoretical projections for educational analysis (not predictions)
Performance Metrics: CAGR, ROI, and other analytical metrics for study
Historical Analysis: Calculates historical return data for reference purposes
---
🚀 Key Features
Volatility-Adjusted Historical Return Calculation
Analyzes 3-20 years of actual price data for any symbol
Automatically detects high-volatility stocks (meme stocks, growth stocks)
Uses median returns for volatile stocks, standard CAGR for stable stocks
Provides conservative estimates when extreme outlier years are detected
Smart fallback to manual percentages when data insufficient
Customizable Performance Dashboard
Educational DCA performance analysis with compound growth calculations
Customizable table sizing (Tiny to Huge text options)
9 positioning options (Top/Middle/Bottom + Left/Center/Right)
Theme-adaptive colors (automatically adjusts to dark/light mode)
Multiple display layout options
Future Projection System
Visual future growth projections
Timeframe-aware calculations (Daily/Weekly/Monthly charts)
1-30 year projection options
Shows projected portfolio value and total investment amounts
Investment Insights
Performance vs benchmark comparison
ROI from initial investment tracking
Monthly average return analysis
Investment milestone alerts (25%, 50%, 100% gains)
Contribution tracking and next milestone indicators
---
📊 Step-by-Step Setup Guide
1. Investment Settings 💰
Initial Investment: Enter your starting lump sum (e.g., $60,000)
Monthly Contribution: Set your regular DCA amount (e.g., $500/month)
Return Calculation: Choose "Auto (Stock History)" for real data or "Manual" for fixed %
Historical Period: Select 3-20 years for auto calculations (default: 10 years)
Start Year: When you began investing (e.g., 2020)
Current Portfolio Value: Your actual portfolio worth today (e.g., $150,000)
2. Display Settings 📊
Table Sizes: Choose from Tiny, Small, Normal, Large, or Huge
Table Positions: 9 options - Top/Middle/Bottom + Left/Center/Right
Visibility Toggles: Show/hide Main Table and Stats Table independently
3. Future Projection 🔮
Enable Projections: Toggle on to see future growth visualization
Projection Years: Set 1-30 years ahead for analysis
Live Example - NASDAQ:META Analysis:
Settings shown: $60K initial + $500/month + Auto calculation + 10-year history + 2020 start + $150K current value
---
🔬 Pine Script Code Examples
Core DCA Calculations:
// Calculate total invested over time
months_elapsed = (year - start_year) * 12 + month - 1
total_invested = initial_investment + (monthly_contribution * months_elapsed)
// Compound growth formula for initial investment
theoretical_initial_growth = initial_investment * math.pow(1 + annual_return, years_elapsed)
// Future Value of Annuity for monthly contributions
monthly_rate = annual_return / 12
fv_contributions = monthly_contribution * ((math.pow(1 + monthly_rate, months_elapsed) - 1) / monthly_rate)
// Total expected value
theoretical_total = theoretical_initial_growth + fv_contributions
Volatility Detection Logic:
// Detect extreme years for volatility adjustment
extreme_years = 0
for i = 1 to historical_years
yearly_return = ((price_current / price_i_years_ago) - 1) * 100
if yearly_return > 100 or yearly_return < -50
extreme_years += 1
// Use median approach for high volatility stocks
high_volatility = (extreme_years / historical_years) > 0.2
calculated_return = high_volatility ? median_of_returns : standard_cagr
Performance Metrics:
// Calculate key performance indicators
absolute_gain = actual_value - total_invested
total_return_pct = (absolute_gain / total_invested) * 100
roi_initial = ((actual_value - initial_investment) / initial_investment) * 100
cagr = (math.pow(actual_value / initial_investment, 1 / years_elapsed) - 1) * 100
---
📊 Real-World Examples
See the indicator in action across different investment types:
Stable Index Investments:
AMEX:SPY (SPDR S&P 500) - Shows steady compound growth with standard CAGR calculations
Classic DCA success story: $60K initial + $500/month starting 2020. The indicator shows SPY's historical 10%+ returns, demonstrating how consistent broad market investing builds wealth over time. Notice the smooth theoretical growth line vs actual performance tracking.
MIL:VUAA (Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS) - Shows both data limitation and solution approaches
Data limitation example: VUAA shows "Manual (Auto Failed)" and "No Data" when default 10-year historical setting exceeds available data. The indicator gracefully falls back to manual percentage input while maintaining all DCA calculations and projections.
MIL:VUAA (Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS) - European ETF with successful 5-year auto calculation
Solution demonstration: By adjusting historical period to 5 years (matching available data), VUAA auto calculation works perfectly. Shows how users can optimize settings for newer assets. European market exposure with EUR denomination, demonstrating DCA effectiveness across different markets and currencies.
NYSE:BRK.B (Berkshire Hathaway) - Quality value investment with Warren Buffett's proven track record
Value investing approach: Berkshire Hathaway's legendary performance through DCA lens. The indicator demonstrates how quality companies compound wealth over decades. Lower volatility than tech stocks = standard CAGR calculations used.
High-Volatility Growth Stocks:
NASDAQ:NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) - Demonstrates volatility-adjusted calculations for extreme price swings
High-volatility example: NVIDIA's explosive AI boom creates extreme years that trigger volatility detection. The indicator automatically switches to "Median (High Vol): 50%" calculations for conservative projections, protecting against unrealistic future estimates based on outlier performance periods.
NASDAQ:TSLA (Tesla) - Shows how 10-year analysis can stabilize volatile tech stocks
Stable long-term growth: Despite Tesla's reputation for volatility, the 10-year historical analysis (34.8% CAGR) shows consistent enough performance that volatility detection doesn't trigger. Demonstrates how longer timeframes can smooth out extreme periods for more reliable projections.
NASDAQ:META (Meta Platforms) - Shows stable tech stock analysis using standard CAGR calculations
Tech stock with stable growth: Despite being a tech stock and experiencing the 2022 crash, META's 10-year history shows consistent enough performance (23.98% CAGR) that volatility detection doesn't trigger. The indicator uses standard CAGR calculations, demonstrating how not all tech stocks require conservative median adjustments.
Notice how the indicator automatically detects high-volatility periods and switches to median-based calculations for more conservative projections, while stable investments use standard CAGR methods.
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📈 Performance Metrics Explained
Current Portfolio Value: Your actual investment worth today
Expected Value: What you should have based on historical returns (Auto) or your target return (Manual)
Total Invested: Your actual money invested (initial + all monthly contributions)
Total Gains/Loss: Absolute dollar difference between current value and total invested
Total Return %: Percentage gain/loss on your total invested amount
ROI from Initial Investment: How your starting lump sum has performed
CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate of your initial investment (Note: This shows initial investment performance, not full DCA strategy)
vs Benchmark: How you're performing compared to the expected returns
---
⚠️ Important Notes & Limitations
Data Requirements: Auto mode requires sufficient historical data (minimum 3 years recommended)
CAGR Limitation: CAGR calculation is based on initial investment growth only, not the complete DCA strategy
Projection Accuracy: Future projections are theoretical and based on historical returns - actual results may vary
Timeframe Support: Works ONLY on Daily (1D), Weekly (1W), and Monthly (1M) charts - no other timeframes supported
Update Frequency: Update "Current Portfolio Value" regularly for accurate tracking
---
📚 Educational Use & Disclaimer
This analysis tool can be applied to various stock and ETF charts for educational study of DCA mathematical concepts and historical performance patterns.
Study Examples: Can be used with symbols like AMEX:SPY , NASDAQ:QQQ , AMEX:VTI , NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:MSFT , NASDAQ:GOOGL , NASDAQ:AMZN , NASDAQ:TSLA , NASDAQ:NVDA for learning purposes.
EDUCATIONAL DISCLAIMER: This indicator is a study tool for analyzing Dollar-Cost Averaging strategies. It does not provide investment advice, trading signals, or guarantees. All calculations are theoretical examples for educational purposes only. Past performance does not predict future results. Users should conduct their own research and consult qualified financial professionals before making any investment decisions.
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© 2025 TradeVizion. All rights reserved.
Turn around Tuesday on Steroids Strategy█ STRATEGY DESCRIPTION
The "Turn around Tuesday on Steroids Strategy" is a mean-reversion strategy designed to identify potential price reversals at the start of the trading week. It enters a long position when specific conditions are met and exits when the price shows strength by exceeding the previous bar's high. This strategy is optimized for ETFs, stocks, and other instruments on the daily timeframe.
█ WHAT IS THE STARTING DAY?
The Starting Day determines the first day of the trading week for the strategy. It can be set to either Sunday or Monday, depending on the instrument being traded. For ETFs and stocks, Monday is recommended. For other instruments, Sunday is recommended.
█ SIGNAL GENERATION
1. LONG ENTRY
A Buy Signal is triggered when:
The current day is the first day of the trading week (either Sunday or Monday, depending on the Starting Day setting).
The close price is lower than the previous day's close (`close < close `).
The previous day's close is also lower than the close two days ago (`close < close `).
The signal occurs within the specified time window (between `Start Time` and `End Time`).
If the MA Filter is enabled, the close price must also be above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA).
2. EXIT CONDITION
A Sell Signal is generated when the current closing price exceeds the high of the previous bar (`close > high `). This indicates that the price has shown strength, potentially confirming the reversal and prompting the strategy to exit the position.
█ ADDITIONAL SETTINGS
Starting Day: Determines the first day of the trading week. Options are Sunday or Monday. Default is Sunday.
Use MA Filter: Enables or disables the 200-period SMA filter for long entries. Default is disabled.
Start Time and End Time: The time window during which the strategy is allowed to execute trades.
█ PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW
This strategy is designed for markets with frequent weekly reversals.
It performs best in volatile conditions where price movements are significant at the start of the trading week.
Backtesting results should be analysed to optimize the Starting Day and MA Filter settings for specific instruments.
S&P 500 E-Mini TrackerThis script generates a reference price for the S&P 500 ETF - SPY based on the current price of the ES contract, which is an E-Mini Futures contract representing the S&P 500 index. The indicator plots this reference price on the chart, providing a unique view of the relationship between these two popular markets.
Advantages:
Identifies divergence between the ES and SPY prices, indicating potential trading opportunities or shifts in market sentiment.
Confirms trends by showing the correlation between the ES and SPY prices.
Eliminates the need for multiple charts, allowing traders to focus on a single screen and make more informed decisions.
Customizable Parameters:
Color Scheme: Choose from various color options to customize the appearance of the indicator.
Line Style: Select from different line styles to change the visual representation of the reference price.
Divisor: Set the dividing factor to adjust the ratio at which the reference price is calculated. (Default value: 10). It is recommended to keep it at 10 for SPY.
To use it with other Stocks/ ETFs, use simple ratio math to calculate the divisor and you can customize the indicator to scale accordingly.
By using this indicator, traders can gain a deeper understanding of the relationship between the E-Mini and SPY markets, making it easier to identify trading opportunities and confirm trends.
Portfolio SnapShot v0.3Here is a Tradingview Pinescript that I call "Portfolio Snapshot". It is based on two other separate scripts that I combined, modified and simplified - shoutout to RedKTrader (Portfolio Tracker - Table Version) and FriendOfTheTrend (Portfolio Tracker For Stocks & Crypto) for their inspiration and code. I was using both of these scripts, and decided to combine the two and increase the number of stocks to 20. I was looking for an easy way to track my entire portfolio (scattered across 5 accounts) PnL on a total and stock basis. PnL - that's it, very simple by design. The features are:
1) Track PnL across multiple accounts, from inception and current day.
2) PnL is reported in two tables, at the portfolio level and individual stock level
3) Both tables can be turned on/off and placed anywhere on the chart.
4) Input up to 20 assets (stocks, crypto, ETFs)
The user has to manually calculate total shares and average basis for stocks in multiple accounts, and then inputs this in the user input dialog. I update mine as each trade is made, or you can just update once a week or so.
I've pre-loaded it with the major indices and sector ETFs, plus URA, GLD, SLV. 100 shares of each, and prices are based on the close Jan 2 2024. So if you don't want to track your portfolio, you can use it to track other things you find interesting, such as annual performance of each sector.
RSI Sector analysis
Screening tool that produces a table with the various sectors and their RSI values. The values are shown in 3 rows, each with a user-defined length, and can be averaged out and displayed as a single value. The chart is color coded as well. Each ETF representing a sector can be looked at individually, with the top holdings in each preprogrammed, but users can define their own if they wish. The left most ticker is the "benchmark"; SPY is the benchmark for the various sectors, and the ETF is the benchmark for the tickers within.
Symbols are color coded: light blue text indicates that a symbol has greater RSI values in all three timeframes than the benchmark (the leftmost symbol). Orange text indicates that a symbol has a lower RSI value for all three timeframes. In the first row, light blue text indicates the largest RSI increase from the third row to the first row. Orange text indicates the largest RSI decrease from the third row to the first row.
A blue highlight indicates that the value is the highest among the tickers, excluding the benchmark, and an orange highlight indicates that the value is the lowest among the tickers, also excluding the benchmark. A blue highlight on the ticker indicates that it has the highest average value of the 3 rows, and a orange highlight on the ticker indicates that it has the lowest average value of the 3 rows.
IBIT Premium to CoinbaseThe BTC ETF premium indicator for TradingView is a specialized tool designed to measure and visualize the premium or discount of the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), an investment vehicle that holds Bitcoin, relative to the actual price of Bitcoin on the Coinbase exchange. This indicator can be particularly insightful for traders interested in the BTC securities market and those analyzing the demand for Bitcoin as reflected by institutional investment products.
#### Description:
The BTC ETF premium indicator in TradingView leverages an advanced Pine Script algorithm to calculate the premium (or discount) percentage of IBIT compared to the spot price of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) on Coinbase. The premium is a critical insight that reflects market sentiment and potentially arbitrage opportunities between the trust's share price and the underlying cryptocurrency asset.
Here's how the indicator works:
1. **Calculation Methodology:**
- **Implied Bitcoin Price of IBIT:** We determine the implied price of Bitcoin within IBIT by dividing the IBIT closing price by the known ratio of Bitcoin per share.
- **IBIT Premium to Coinbase:** The percentage premium is then calculated as:
$$\text{IBIT Premium} = \frac{(\text{Implied Bitcoin Price of IBIT } - \text{Actual Bitcoin Price on Coinbase})}{\text{Actual Bitcoin Price on Coinbase}} \times 100$$
- This calculation is performed using the closing prices on a per-minute basis to ensure timely and accurate analysis.
2. **Visualization:** The indicator plots the premium as a step line chart, making it easy to visualize changes over time. A dynamic label accompanies the plot, displaying the implied Bitcoin price, the actual percentage premium or discount, and whether the premium is trending up or down compared to the previous day's value.
3. **Usage Scenario:** Traders can use this indicator to monitor the live premium 24/7 and analyze how it behaves during different market conditions, including when the equity market, where IBIT is traded, is closed.
#### Additional Features:
- **Color-Coding:** The premium is color-coded in green when positive (premium) and in red when negative (discount), aiding quick visual assessment.
- **Zero-Line Reference:** A horizontal line is drawn at zero to easily identify when IBIT is trading at par with the spot price of Bitcoin.
- **Real-Time Label Updates:** The label updates in real time with the latest premium/discount information and includes an arrow to signify the trend direction.
#### Access and Usage:
The indicator can be favorited or added to your TradingView charts. You are also welcome to use the source code as a foundation for further customization to suit your trading strategies.
#### Notes:
Please consider that the IBIT has specific trading hours, and the indicator can show live changes even when its market is closed, which might lead to discrepancies from official static data. For best performance, use this indicator alongside the IBIT candlestick chart on TradingView.
GBTC Premium to CoinbaseThe BTC ETF premium indicator for TradingView is a specialized tool designed to measure and visualize the premium or discount of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), an investment vehicle that holds Bitcoin, relative to the actual price of Bitcoin on the Coinbase exchange. This indicator can be particularly insightful for traders interested in the BTC securities market and those analyzing the demand for Bitcoin as reflected by institutional investment products.
#### Description:
The BTC ETF premium indicator in TradingView leverages an advanced Pine Script algorithm to calculate the premium (or discount) percentage of GBTC compared to the spot price of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) on Coinbase. The premium is a critical insight that reflects market sentiment and potentially arbitrage opportunities between the trust's share price and the underlying cryptocurrency asset.
Here's how the indicator works:
1. **Calculation Methodology:**
- **Implied Bitcoin Price of GBTC:** We determine the implied price of Bitcoin within GBTC by dividing the GBTC closing price by the known ratio of Bitcoin per share.
- **GBTC Premium to Coinbase:** The percentage premium is then calculated as:
$$\text{GBTC Premium} = \frac{(\text{Implied Bitcoin Price of GBTC} - \text{Actual Bitcoin Price on Coinbase})}{\text{Actual Bitcoin Price on Coinbase}} \times 100$$
- This calculation is performed using the closing prices on a per-minute basis to ensure timely and accurate analysis.
2. **Visualization:** The indicator plots the premium as a step line chart, making it easy to visualize changes over time. A dynamic label accompanies the plot, displaying the implied Bitcoin price, the actual percentage premium or discount, and whether the premium is trending up or down compared to the previous day's value.
3. **Usage Scenario:** Traders can use this indicator to monitor the live premium 24/7 and analyze how it behaves during different market conditions, including when the equity market, where GBTC is traded, is closed.
#### Additional Features:
- **Color-Coding:** The premium is color-coded in green when positive (premium) and in red when negative (discount), aiding quick visual assessment.
- **Zero-Line Reference:** A horizontal line is drawn at zero to easily identify when GBTC is trading at par with the spot price of Bitcoin.
- **Real-Time Label Updates:** The label updates in real time with the latest premium/discount information and includes an arrow to signify the trend direction.
#### Access and Usage:
The indicator can be favorited or added to your TradingView charts. You are also welcome to use the source code as a foundation for further customization to suit your trading strategies.
#### Notes:
Please consider that the GBTC has specific trading hours, and the indicator can show live changes even when its market is closed, which might lead to discrepancies from official static data. For best performance, use this indicator alongside the GBTC candlestick chart on TradingView.
Leveraged Share Decay Tracker [SS]Releasing this utility tool for leveraged share traders and investors.
It is very difficult to track the amount of decay and efficiency that is associated with leveraged shares and since not all leveraged shares are created equally, I developed this tool to help investors/traders ascertain:
1. The general risk, in $$, per share associated with investing in a particular leveraged ETF
2. The ability of a leveraged share to match what it purports to do (i.e. if it is a 3X Bull share, is it actually returning consistently 3X the underlying or is there a large variance?)
3. The general decay at various timepoints expressed in $$$
How to use:
You need to be opened on the chart of the underlying. In the example above, the chart is on DIA, the leveraged share being tracked is UDOW (3X bull share of the DOW).
Once you are on the chart of the underlying, you then put in the leveraged share of interest. The indicator will perform two major assessments:
1. An analysis of the standard error between the underlying and the leveraged share. This is accomplished through linear regression, but instead of creating a linreg equation, it simply uses the results to ascertain the degree of error associated at various time points (the time points are 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 100, 252).
2. An analysis of the variance of returns. The indicator requires you to put in the leverage amount. So if the leverage amount is 3% (i.e. SPXL or UPRO is 3 X SPY), be sure that you are putting that factor in the settings. It will then modify the underlying to match the leverage amount, and perform an assessment of variance over 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 100, 252 days to ensure stability. This will verify whether the leveraged ETF is actually consistently performing how it purports to perform.
Here are some examples, and some tales of caution so you can see, for yourself, how not all leveraged shares are created equal.
SPY and SPXL:
SPY and UPRO:
XBI and LABU (3 x bull share):
XBI and LABD (3 x bear share):
SOX and SOXL:
AAPL and AAPU:
It is VERY pivotal you remember to check and adjust the Leveraged % factor.
For example, AAPU is leveraged 1.5%. You can see above it tracks this well. However, if you accidently leave it at 3%, you will get an erroneous result:
You can also see how some can fail to track the quoted leveraged amount, but still produce relatively lower risk decay.
And, as a final example, let's take a look at the worst leveraged share of life, BOIL:
Trainwreck that one. Stay far away from it!
The chart:
The chart will show you the drift (money value over time) and the variance (% variance between the expected and actual returns) over time. From here, you can ascertain the general length you feel comfortable holding a leveraged share. In general, for most stable shares, <= 50 trading days tends to be the sweet spot, but always check the chart.
There are also options to plot the variances and the drifts so you can see them visually.
And that is the indicator! Kind of boring, but there are absolutely 0 resources out there for doing this job, so hopefully you see the use for it!
Safe trades everyone!
Share CalculatorThis is a simple grid box that will calculate the number of total shares you can trade on two different stocks based on a principal amount you enter in the settings. The indicator updates throughout the trading day as price changes. The 25% column tells you the number of shares you can "scale into" the trade, 1/4 at a time, up to the total number of shares below.
The reason I built this indicator, is that I trade on a platform that isn't as flexible as some other platforms in terms of entering monetary amounts I want to trade in a stock. I have to enter the number of shares I want to purchase. Additionally, in some of the accounts I trade, I need to monitor both the Bull ETF and the Bear ETF, so it's helpful to have them side by side.
I was tired of going back and forth to excel and my trading platform! To use this, simply update the principal amount you have to trade, and update the Ticker symbols you want to use. Colors and grid placement are customizable.
Daily SPY PlanThe Daily SPY Plan indicator is a technical analysis tool designed to provide traders with a visual representation of price levels and take profit points for the SPY (S&P 500 ETF) on a daily timeframe. This indicator utilizes the Average True Range (ATR) to calculate projected price levels and take profit points, aiding traders in identifying potential breakout and profit-taking opportunities.
Indicator Description:
The indicator is written in Pine Script, specifically for use on the TradingView platform. It plots several levels on the price chart, each representing a potential breakout or take profit point. The levels are determined based on a fraction of the ATR added or subtracted from the closing price. The fractions used are 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1.0, 1.25, and 1.5 times the ATR.
The indicator distinguishes between breakout levels and take profit levels using different colors. Breakout levels, which indicate potential entry or exit points, are displayed in green, while take profit levels are shown in gray.
Key Features and Use:
ATR Calculation: The indicator calculates the Average True Range (ATR) using a specified length (default value of 14). ATR is a measure of market volatility and represents the average range between the high and low prices over a specific period.
Projected Price Levels: The indicator plots several projected price levels above and below the closing price. These levels are calculated by adding or subtracting a fraction of the ATR from the closing price. Traders can use these levels as potential breakout points or areas to set stop-loss orders.
Take Profit Points: The indicator also plots take profit points at specific levels above and below the closing price. These levels are designed to help traders identify potential areas to secure profits or partially exit their positions.
Visual Representation: The indicator utilizes step-like lines to plot the projected price levels and take profit points, providing a clear visual representation on the price chart. Traders can easily identify the relevant levels and incorporate them into their trading strategies.
Customizability: The indicator allows traders to customize the ATR length and choose whether to display Fibonacci levels (although there are no Fibonacci calculations in the provided code). These customization options enable traders to adapt the indicator to their preferred trading style and timeframe.
Limitations and Considerations:
Complementary Analysis: The Daily SPY Plan indicator should be used as a complementary tool alongside other technical analysis techniques and indicators. It provides price levels and take profit points based on ATR calculations, but it doesn't incorporate additional market factors or trading strategies.
Timeframe Suitability: The indicator is specifically designed for the daily timeframe of the SPY. Traders should consider adjusting the parameters and adapting the indicator if using it on different timeframes or instruments.
Risk Management: While the indicator suggests potential breakout and take profit points, it does not provide explicit stop-loss levels or risk management parameters. Traders should incorporate appropriate risk management techniques to protect their capital.
Conclusion:
The Daily SPY Plan indicator is a valuable technical analysis tool for traders focusing on the SPY ETF and the daily timeframe. By utilizing the ATR, it helps traders identify potential breakout levels and take profit points. However, traders should remember that this indicator is just one piece of the puzzle and should be used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and risk management strategies to make informed trading decisions.
Gap Size Outcome Statistics [vnhilton]This indicator displays a table with statistics showing the outcomes of gap ups or downs based on your threshold (i.e. does the day end in green or red?). This can be useful for trading, where you're using relevant ETFs & see that they've gapped up/down, & can assume based on statistics that the ETF will end in green/red depending on which has the higher probability (however, you can use these on any other instruments such as stocks to find edges e.g. seeing whether stock XYZ is more likely to end in green/red when it gaps up 100%).
The table also includes sample sizes for your threshold tests for more confidence in the statistics, & also displays average gap up & downs & their respective sample sizes as well. This indicator is intended to be used on the daily timeframe, but can be used on lower or higher timeframes if you prefer.
In the chart snapshot image above, we can see that when the SPY gaps up > 1%, the day is more likely to end in green than in red. But when the SPY gaps down < -1%, it's also more likely to end in green than in red.
( IMPORTANT NOTE : There's 1 limitation with this indicator & it's that it assumes that days where close=open are green days, & that 0% gaps exact are considered gap ups.)
Gap Reversion StrategyToday I am releasing to the community an original short-term, high-probability gap trading strategy, backed by a 20 year backtest. This strategy capitalizes on the mean reverting behavior of equity ETFs, which is largely driven by fear in the market. The strategy buys into that fear at a level that has historically mean reverted within ~5 days. Larry Connors has published useful research and variations of strategies based on this behavior that I would recommend any quantitative trader read.
What it does:
This strategy, for 1 day charts on equity ETFs, looks for an overnight gap down when the RSI is also in/near an oversold position. Then, it places a limit order further below the opening of the gapped-down day. It then exits the position based on a higher RSI level. The limit buy order is cancelled if the price doesn't reach your limit price that day. So, the larger you make the gap and limit %, the less signals you will have.
Features:
Inputs to allow the adjustment of the limit order %, the gap %, and the RSI entry/exit levels.
An option to have the limit order be based on a % of ATR instead of a % of asset price.
An optional filter that can turn-off trades when the VIX is unusually high.
A built in stop.
Built in alerts.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Open-source scripts I publish in the community are largely meant to spark ideas that can be used as building blocks for part of a more robust trade management strategy. If you would like to implement a version of any script, I would recommend making significant additions/modifications to the strategy & risk management functions. If you don’t know how to program in Pine, then hire a Pine-coder. We can help!
VIX Volatility Trend Analysis With Signals - Stocks OnlyVIX VOLATILITY TREND ANALYSIS CLOUD WITH BULLISH & BEARISH SIGNALS - STOCKS ONLY
This indicator is a visual aid that shows you the bullish or bearish trend of VIX market volatility so you can see the VIX trend without switching charts. When volatility goes up, most stocks go down and vice versa. When the cloud turns green, it is a bullish sign. When the cloud turns red, it is a bearish sign.
This indicator is meant for stocks with a lot of price action and volatility, so for best results, use it on charts that move similar to the S&P 500 or other similar charts.
This indicator uses real time data from the stock market overall, so it should only be used on stocks and will only give a few signals during after hours. It does work ok for crypto, but will not give signals when the US stock market is closed.
**HOW TO USE**
When the VIX Volatility Index trend changes direction, it will give a green or red line on the chart depending on which way the VIX is now trending. The cloud will also change color depending on which way the VIX is trending. Use this to determine overall market volatility and place trades in the direction that the indicator is showing. Do not use this by itself as sometimes markets won’t react perfectly to the overall market volatility. It should only be used as a secondary confirmation in your trading/trend analysis.
For more signals with earlier entries, go into settings and reduce the number. 10-100 is best for scalping. For less signals with later entries, change the number to a higher value. Use 100-500 for swing trades. Can go higher for long swing trades. Our favorite settings are 20, 60, 100, 500 and 1000.
***MARKETS***
This indicator should only be used on the US stock markets as signals are given based on the VIX volatility index which measures volatility of the US Stock Markets.
***TIMEFRAMES***
This indicator works on all time frames, but after hours will not change much at all due to the markets being closed.
**INVERSE CHARTS**
If you are using this on an inverse ETF and the signals are showing backwards, please comment with what chart it is and I will configure the indicator to give the correct signals. I have included over 50 inverse ETFs into the code to show the correct signals on inverse charts, but I'm sure there are some that I have missed so feel free to let me know and I will update the script with the requested tickers.
***TIPS***
Try using numerous indicators of ours on your chart so you can instantly see the bullish or bearish trend of multiple indicators in real time without having to analyze the data. Some of our favorites are our Auto Fibonacci, Directional Movement Index, Volume Profile with buy & sell pressure, Auto Support And Resistance, Vix Scalper and Money Flow Index in combination with this Vix Trend Analysis. They all have real time Bullish and Bearish labels as well so you can immediately understand each indicator's trend.
Risk On Risk OffA helpful indicator for those who follow a systematic long-term investment approach.
What it shows:
It shows the 60 Day Cumulative Return of $BND Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF against the 60 Day Cumulative Return of $BIL SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF.
Why:
This Indicator will provide you a sense of where the economic environment is at, if the indicator shows that the 60 Day Cumulative return of $BND is ABOVE $BIL, it means that it's a good idea to go Risk ON in the stock market; On the other hand, if the inverse is true, it means that is a good idea to go Risk OFF in the stock market.
Example Uses:
Warren Buffet often advice Investors to just buy a S&P500 index tracking ETF like $SPY consistently and you will likely to be making money in the long-term.
With this indicator you will be able to make the Buffet Strategy even simpler: when the indicator shows Risk ON, buy the $SPY; when the indicator shows Risk OFF, consider hedges like $IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF. AMEX:SPY
VIX Reversal Scalper by Trend Friend - Stocks OnlyVIX REVERSAL SCALPER BY TREND FRIEND - STOCKS ONLY
This indicator is built for scalping, but can be used for swing trades by adjusting the signal settings to a higher number.
This indicator is meant for stocks with a lot of price action and volatility, so for best results, use it on charts that move similar to the S&P 500 or other similar charts.
This indicator uses real time data from the stock market overall, so it should only be used on stocks and will only give a few signals during after hours. It does work ok for crypto, but will not give signals when the US stock market is closed.
**HOW TO USE**
When the VIX Volatility Index trend changes direction, it will give a bull or bear signal on the chart depending on which way the VIX is now trending. Follow these when price is near support/resistance or fibonacci levels.
For more signals with earlier entries, go into settings and reduce the number. 10-100 is best for scalping. For less signals with later entries, change the number to a higher value. Use 100-500 for swing trades. Can go higher for long swing trades.
***MARKETS***
This indicator should only be used on the US stock markets as signals are given based on the VIX volatility index which measures volatility of the US Stock Markets.
***TIMEFRAMES***
This indicator works on all time frames.
**NOTE**
Repainting does happen but it is seldom. If I get enough requests to remove repainting I will, but since it is built for early entries, preventing it from repainting will make the signals show up later than normal.
Due to various factors, this indicator might not give exit signals every time it should, so be sure to watch the price action for entries/exits and don't rely solely on this indicator.
**INVERSE CHARTS**
If you are using this on an inverse ETF and the signals are showing backwards, please comment with what chart it is and I will configure the indicator to give the correct signals. I have included over 50 inverse ETFs into the code to show the correct signals on inverse charts, but I'm sure there are some that I have missed so feel free to let me know and I will update the script with the requested tickers.
***TIPS***
Try using numerous indicators of ours on your chart so you can instantly see the bullish or bearish trend of multiple indicators in real time without having to analyze the data. Some of our favorites are our Auto Fibonacci, Directional Movement Index, Volume Profile, Auto Support And Resistance and Money Flow Index in combination with this Vix Reversal Scalper. They all have real time Bullish and Bearish labels as well so you can immediately understand each indicator's trend.
Overnight Gap AnalysisThere is a wide range of opinion on holding positions overnight due to gap risk. So, out of curiosity, I coded this analysis as a strategy to see what the result of only holding a position overnight on an asset would be. The results really surprised me. The script backtests 10+ years, and here are the findings:
Holding a position for 1 hour bar overnight on QQQ since January 2010 results in a 545% return. QQQ's entire return holding through the same period is 643%
The max equity drawdown on holding that position overnight is lower then the buy/hold drawdown on the underlying asset.
It doesn't matter if the last bar of the day is green or red, the results are similar.
It doesn't matter if it is a bull or bear market. Filtering the script to only trade when the price is above the 200-day moving average actually reduces its return from 545% to 301%, though it does also reduce drawdown.
I see similar patterns when applying the script to other index ETFs. Applying it to leveraged index ETFs can end up beating buy/hold of the underlying index.
Since this script holds through the 1st bar of the day, this could also speak to a day-opening price pattern
The default inputs are for the script to be applied to 1 hour charts only that have 7 bars on the chart per day. You can apply it to other chart types, but must follow the instructions below for it to work properly.
What the script is doing :
This script is buying the close of the last bar of the day and closing the trade at the close of the next bar. So, all trades are being held for 1 bar. By default, the script is setup for use on a 1hr chart that has 7 bars per day. If you try to apply it to a different timeframe, you will need to adjust the count of the last bar of the day with the script input. I.e. There are 7 bars per day on an hour chart on US Stocks/ETFs, so the input is set to 7 by default.
Other ways this script can be used :
This script can also test the result of holding a position over any 1 bar in the day using that same input. For instance, on an hour chart you can input 6 on the script input, and it will model buying the close of the 6th bar of the day while selling on the close of the next bar. I used this out of curiosity to model what only holding the last bar of the day would result in. On average, you lose money on the last bar every day.
The irony here is that the root cause of this last bar of the day losing may be people selling their positions at the end of day so that they aren't exposed to overnight gap risk.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Open-source scripts I publish in the community are largely meant to spark ideas that can be used as building blocks for part of a more robust trade management strategy. If you would like to implement a version of any script, I would recommend making significant additions/modifications to the strategy & risk management functions. If you don’t know how to program in Pine, then hire a Pine-coder. We can help!
MS Market Timing ModelThis script uses subtle sentiment analysis to try to reduce the risk of positioning in assets. By "assets" I mean: the QQQ ETF as a synonym for positioning in Nasdaq-100 stocks and the TLT ETF as a placeholder for US government bonds with very long maturity and that as a risk-averse alternative. The coloring of the pseudo capital curve means:
* green = 100% QQQ
* red = 100% TLT
* yellow = 50% QQQ/50% TLT
Live off your portofolio (decumulate)This indicator simulates living off your portofolio consisting of a single security or stock such as the SPY etf or even Bitcoin. The simulation starts at a certain point on the chart (which you input as year and month).
Withrawals from the portofolio are made each month according to the yearly withdrawal rate you enter, such as the 4% SWR. The monthly withdrawal income is calculated in USD at the beginning of the retirement period and then adjusted according to the US inflation (CPI) on 01/01 of each year.
The blue graph represents the USD value of the remaining portofolio.
This indicator is meant to be used on daily, weekly or monthly time frame. It may not work properly (and makes little sense to use) on intraday timeframe or larger time frames such as quarterly (3M).
When withdrawing, the indicator considers that fractional stock values can be used (the portofolio value is kept as a float). This may not be true, as most stock brokers currently don't allow this.
It does not explicitly take into account dividends. In order to do this you will have to enable "Adjust for dividends" by clicking on "adj" in the lower right corner of the screen, or by using the indicator on a Total Return (TR) index such as DAX. Unfortunately SPX does not have dividend data, you will have to use the SPY etf (which doesn't have a long history)
Moving Average and PerformanceThis indicator combines several tools that are used daily for analysis:
The performance of the action we are seeing.
The percentage of retracement the stock has made from its all time high.
Possibility of using up to four exponential or simple moving averages in the length we want.
It allows to see or not the levels of four moving averages in daily temporality.
This indicator is unique since it allows you to see in real time the performance of the Stock or ETF that is being analyzed, which allows you to make a timely decision for short, medium or long-term investments.
If you are doing scalping, swing, or intraday trading, you can see the retracement it has made from the ATH (3, 5, 10 or 13%) which can become Supports or Resistances where the price can rebound, Likewise, the levels of the moving averages in 1D temporality can be observed at the same time, which are usually dynamic supports or resistances and it can also be observed in the same temporality of the chart four moving averages that the trader can configure in the length that you deem convenient to improve your analysis and make decisions as quickly as possible.
Este indicador es único ya que permite ver en tiempo real el rendimiento de la Acción o ETF que se está analizando, lo cual permite tomar una decisión oportuna para las inversiones a corto, mediano o largo plazo.
Si se está haciendo trading tipo scalping, swing, o intradía, se puede observar el retroceso que ha hecho desde el ATH (3, 5, 10 o 13%) el cual puede convertirse en Soportes o Resistencias en donde el precio puede hacer rebotes, así mismo se pueden estar observando al mismo tiempo los niveles de las medias móviles en temporalidad de 1D, los cuales usualmente son Soportes o resistencias dinámicas y también se puede observar en la misma temporalidad del gráfico cuatro medias móviles que el trader puede configurar en la longitud que crea conveniente para mejorar su análisis y tomar decisiones lo más rápido posible.
