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Probability: Bull/Bear Dominance | Ratio | Bar CountIntro What's the probability of the next bar being red? How about green? Well, there are many ways to quantify the probability but I am presenting just one stupidly simple (but generally accurate) way to measure it. Strangely... no one has done this before that I can find. I try to check if someone else has done it first (Pro Tip: Plz do this. We honestly don't need the 5 trillionth "MTF MAs" script.) Indicator Its a basic counting script, but the nice thing about this script is you choose the time range. It starts counting from a specified point of your choosing. It counts up the bull bars and bear bars separately. Bull Bar = Close > Open Bear Bar = Open > Close You can look at them in sum or as a ratio of Green Bars : Red Bars I know, it's almost too simple. But, here's some interesting food for thought from a layman to fellow laymen. Analysis/Edge Between the time of candle open and candle close, the price can do one of three things, close higher, close lower, or close equal to. 'Equal to' is rare on higher timeframes in liquid markets and it provides no useful information. Thus, we'll nix it for purposes of this conversation. So boil it down. The next candle is going to be a red candle or a green candle. It is popular to refer to the general probability of most candles as 50/50, with trader's mission in life being to seek an edge that tilts the probabilities slightly in their favor. The truth is the odds are probably never actually 50/50, but knowing the precisely correct probability is unknowable, just like the accuracy of a weather forecast is inherently unknowable. What we're trying to do as traders is develop systems that give us predictive probabilistic outcomes that correspond with future realities based on various ways of measuring the market (most often heavily dependent on the past). The reality is that the market can be measured in many, many different ways. The important thing is that you measure it in a way that is accurate, relevant, and universally applicable. So look at this indicator here: You start from a point in time on a chosen timeframe and you put red bars in the red column, green in the green column, and count them all up. Then you make a ratio, in this case, Green : Red. What the ratio shows you is the percentage of green bars compared to red bars . At the time of this screenshot, the 4h on the SPX starting from the 2020 bottom is showing a ratio of 1.2. This means there have been 20% more green bars than there have been red bars. Now there are 1,000 directions you can take this discussion. What is the overall volatility picture, the size of the red bars vs the green bars, what happens if you miss out on the 5 biggest green bars... so many more variables that you would need to take into account to develop a true edge from this idea. But, the bottom line fact (which is what I like about this) is that we can take this data and say with a certain level of confidence that on the SPX you have a 20% better shot at making money (otherwise stated there's a 60/40 chance) if you open a LONG trade at the beginning of a 4h candle than if you open a short. That's useful information. One could argue that it's not a complete strategy in and of itself (although I bet it could be with a couple of additional parameters). But I can tell you, based on the 4h candles in the 2020 rally if you open a short, the deck is stacked against you from this perspective. And we can actually somewhat demonstrate this to be true for our dataset because we can look at the price history and see who likely made more money. The SPX is up 1000pts off the bottom. So, thus far, for this dataset, it rings true; Bulls have been doing way better in the latter part of 2020 than the bears. Conclusion Predictive systems with a small number of variables tend to be more robust than a system with many variables when applied to a complex system. I may keep updating this script if people like it and determine aspects like population vs sample size, confidence intervals, volatility, and exclusion of outliers. For now, this is just an opening foray into the basic idea of how we can establish an edge in the markets. It really can be this simple. Thanks for Reading.
Pine Script®指標
由kurtsmock提供
9
All RSI Signals v1Hi All, RSI is a widely accepted indicator by most of the traders. I built this indicator to present all the RSI buying and selling signals that can be missed to get the best use of this indicator. The indicator is composed of: 1. RSI 2. Stochastic RSI 3. Linear regression for the RSI The short signals provided by the stochastic will support short term traders to catch every move and maximize the profit. The idea is that: 1. The stochastic stochastic RSI will give the RSI a colour based on the potential movement. blue colour for uptrend and red for the downtrend 2. The linear regression will provide the directions of the RSI and facilitate the indication of any divergence with the stock or commodity trend 3. Based on my tests, It's better to buy only if the RSI is between 30 to 70 and the stochastic between 20 and 60 to ensure a strong trend and capture the right amount of the revenue Hope you enjoy it and remember that all the variables are editable to support you in customizing it based on your experience and market behaviour
Pine Script®指標
由aothmaan提供
4
Crypto Margin Trading ConsensusThis is an indicator of the consensus of traders in the crypto market. It examines the number of short and long positions on several currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, LTC, XMR, EOS and others) on each bar. Sometimes traders are in consensus and they are right (enter long and the currencies rise, or enter the short and the currencies decrease) other times, although they are in consensus, it can happen that the market behaves exactly the opposite. Some signals are good, some are not (as with any other indicator, unfortunately). Because it uses data about multiple currencies, it is a market breadth indicator - it does not refer to One currency, but to several important currencies in the crypto market, simultaneously (calculates based on information about several currencies). That's why it loads SLOWLY - it can take up to 60 seconds to appear. If a multi-currency trader bar goes LONG (meaning they agree that it should be long), it displays a green upward-facing arrow, otherwise, if there is a consensus that it should be short, it displays a downward arrow. I hope it will be of some use to you
Pine Script®指標
由danarm提供
Session RangesThis is session range indicator with CLEAN code and CLEAR data presentation. There are other range indicators available but when I looked I found them unreliable or making too much screen clutter. WIth mine you can have 3 ranges on screen, measure to bodies or wickes, customise the period, (set your timezone), colours, labels and all that good stuff... I'm very happy to share it with everyone (and publishing is a great way to archive my code) but ultimately this indicator is by me, for me. Whilst i added a few bells and whistles for everyone this indicator is precisely designed to: Show me EASILY see what happened in the Asia session and whether we are breaking out with MINIMAL screen clutter. I only use the 3, 15 and 60 - it won't work on the 1, 5, 120 etc because I dont need it to. How I use it is below.
Pine Script®指標
由john_everist提供
42
Binomial Option Pricing ModelA binomial option pricing model is an option pricing model that calculates an option's price using binomial trees. The BOPM method of calculating option prices is different from the Black-Scholes Model because it provides more flexibility in the type of options you want to price. The BOPM, unlike the BS model typically used for European style options, allows you to price options which have the ability to exercise early, such as American or Bermudan options. Although you can use the BOPM for any option style. This specific model allows you to price both American and European vanilla options. The way the BOPM calculates option prices is by: First, dividing up the time until expiry into equal parts called steps. This specific model presented only uses 2 steps. For example, say you have an option with an expiry of 60 days, and your binomial tree has only two steps. Then each step will contain 30 days. Second, the model will project the expected price of the underlying at the end of each step, called a node. The expected price is calculated by using the underlying's volatility and projecting what the price of the underlying would be if it were to rise and fall. This step is repeated until the terminal node, aka the end of the tree, is reached. Third, once the terminal node's expected underlying prices are calculated, their expected option prices must be calculated. Finally, after calculating the terminal option prices, backwards induction must be used to calculate the option prices at the previous nodes, until you reach Node 0, aka the current option price. In order to use this model: 1st. Enter your option's strike price. 2nd. Enter the risk-free-rate of the currency the option is based in. 3rd. Enter the dividend yield of the underlying if it's a stock, or the foreign risk-free-rate if it's an FX option. *For example, if you were trading an AAPL stock option, in the risk-free-rate box mentioned in step 2, you would enter the US risk-free-rate because AAPL options are traded in US dollars. In the dividend yield box mentioned in step 3, you would enter the stock's dividend yield, which for AAPL is 0.82. *If you were, for example, trading an option on the EUR/JPY currency pair, the risk-free-rate mentioned in step 2, would be the Japanese risk-free-rate. Then in the the dividend yield box from step 3, you'd input the Eurozone risk-free-rate. *If you were trading an options on futures contract, the risk-free-rate mentioned in step 2, would be the risk-free-rate for whatever currency the futures contract is denominated in. For example EUR futures are denominated in USD, so you would input the US risk-free-rate. Meanwhile, something like FTSE futures are denominated in GBP, so you would input the British risk-free-rate. As for the dividend yield box mentioned in step 3, for all options on futures, enter 0. 4th. Pick what type of underlying the option is based on: stock, FX, or futures. 5th. Pick the style of option: American or European. 6th. Pick the type of option: Long Call or Long Put. 7th. Input your time until expiry. You can express this in terms of days, hours, and minutes. 8th. Lastly, input your chart time-frame in term of minutes. For example, if you're using the 1 min time-frame enter 1, 4hr time-frame enter 480, daily time-frame enter 1440. *Disclaimer, because this particular model only uses 2 steps, it won't work on stocks with high prices (over $100). If you want to use this on stocks with prices greater than $100, you would need to add more steps to the code, shown below. The model in its current form should work for stocks below $100.
Pine Script®指標
由SegaRKO提供
7
open close time trendSo this indicator show the relation between open and close acording to time length why it intresting? since the distance is realtion of min compare to the regular way we calculate the distance. in this way we can see how open and close state are related. in this indicator when close above open it buy signal seen as lime and vice versa seen as orange. since the distance is in min we can set the min to be above the chart that we use or to see the distance in min bellow the chart time frame that we use . as in this example it set to 120 min on 4 hour chart. you can go even lower to 60 min on 4 hour chart . this reduce the lag that normaly we have with our indicator. on the other hand we can set it above the time frame that we use in order to see longer trend. i put signal as options for the crossing of the close and open there is no repaint here
Pine Script®指標
由RafaelZioni提供
5
MACD histogram relative open/closePrelude This script makes it easy to capture MACD Histogram open/close for automated trading. There seems to be no "magic" value for MACD Histogram that always works as a cut-off for trade entry/exit, because of the variation in market price over time. The idea behind this script is to replicate the view of the MACD graph we (humans) see on the screen, in mathematics, so the computer can approximately detect when the curve is opening/closing. Math The maths for this is composed of 2 sections - 1. Entry - i. To trigger entry, we normalize the Histogram value by first determining the lowest and highest values on the MACD curves (MACD, Signal & Hist). ii. The lowest and highest values are taken over the "Frame of reference" which is a hyperparameter. iii. Once the frame of reference is determined, the entry cutoff param can be defined with respect to the values from (i) (10% by default) 2. Exit To trigger an exit, a trader searches for the point where the Histogram starts to drop "steeply". To convert the notion of "steep" into mathematics - i. Take the max histogram value reached since last MACD curve flip ii. Define the cutoff with reference to the value from (i) (30% by default) Plots Gray - Dead region Blue - Histogram opening Red - Histogram is closing Notes A good value for the frame of reference can be estimated by looking at the timescale of the graph you generally work with during manual trading. For me, that turned out to be ~2.5 hours. (as shown in the above graph) For a 3-minute ticker, frame of reference = 2.5 * 60 / 3 = 50 Which is the default given in this script. Ultimately, it is up to you to do grid search and find these hyperparams for the stock and ticker size you're working with. Also, this script only serves the purpose of detecting the Histogram curve opening/closing. You may want to add further checks to perform proper trading using MACD.
Pine Script®指標
由devxpy提供
1
Elder Impulse SnapshotNASDAQ:AMZN I've always been intrigued by the Elder Impulse System but found it labour intensive with its flipping back and forth between daily and weekly charts. I also wasn't fond of the way it repainted the candlesticks. So I set out to build a version where you could get every trade signal filtered down in one chart and still see the real price action. This article provides a decent overview of the original system: www.investopedia.com Elder Impulse Snapshot uses two EMAs and two MACDs, one of each to process both the daily and weekly data. The daily data gets an EMA of 13 periods and the standard MACD settings. For the weekly info, the EMA is set to 65 periods and all the MACD values are also multiplied by five (60, 130, 45). Buy signals are generated when both EMAs and both MACD histograms are rising. When all four of these elements are falling, sell signals are generated. If any of the indicators disagree, no signal is generated and entering any trade is not advised. The blue and red arrows are the buy and sell signals. From my reading, it appears Dr. Elder recommended exiting the trade as soon as the system no longer generated a signal, though the case could be made for taking partial profit and moving up your stop loss to ride the trend out longer provided you haven't been stopped out yet.
Pine Script®指標
由stvch提供
3
RSI5_50 with DivergenceThis is variation of RSI Divergence strategy. I have added a filter (long term RSI) to the Rules. strategy BUYs when RSI 50 period is above 50 line and there is divergence on the short term RSI settings ========= short term RSI period 5 long term RSI period 50 stopLoss is 8% --- if setting is enabled BUY Rule ======== RSI 50 is above 50 line short term RSI is showing divergence Add to existing ============== if already in position, BUY when shorTermRSI is crossing above 20 TakeProfit ========= when longTermRSI reaches 60,65, 70 and 75 level , take partial profits . (not when crossing down --- This may affect on profits , because when price goes down , it goes very fast ) Exit ===== when longTermRSI is crossing down 30 OR stopLoss value hits Note: When I tested this with GOOGL stock , I have got excellent results ... any experts there , please check everything is good with scripting ... Happy Trading
Pine Script®策略
由eemani123提供
17
DARYL GUPPY'S MMA (MULTIPLE MOVING AVERAGES)This script plots 2 separate bundles of moving averages, consisting of 6 different MAs each, with the goal to avoid some false signal provided by individual MAs, and was designed by Daryl Guppy, an Australian trader. The first bundle consists of 6 "fast" MAs (default width: 3, 5, 8, 10, 12, 15 periods) and is highlighted in blue. The second consists of 6 "slow" MAs (default width: 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 60 periods) and is highlighted in orange. However I made it possible to modify the width for each MA. The original Daryl Guppy's MMA is made of EMAs, however this script also includes the possibility to plot SMAs instead. From an operational point of view, those bundles act like individual MAs. So the trader should watch for crosses, convergences and divergencies between the 2 bundles and between the individual averages.
Pine Script®指標
由Bezzus提供
Stochastic based on Closing Prices - Identify and Rank TrendsStochClose is a trend indicator that can be used on its own to measure trend strength, in a scan to rank a group of securities according to trend strength or as part of a trend following strategy. Moreover, it acts as a volatility-adjusted trend indicator that puts securities on an equal footing. StochClose measures the location of the current close relative to the close-only high-low range over a given period of time. In contrast to the traditional Stochastic Oscillator, this indicator only uses closing prices. Traditional Stochastic uses intraday highs and lows to calculate the range. The focus on closing prices reduces signal noise caused by intraday highs and lows, and filters out errant or irrationally exuberant price spikes. Here are some examples when the high or low was out of proportion and suspect. Perhaps most famously, there were errant spike lows in dozens of ETFs in August 2015 (XLK, IJR, ITB). There were other spikes in VMBS (October 2014), IJR (October 2008) and KRE (May 2011). Elsewhere, there were suspicious spikes in IEI (April 2020), CHD (March 2020), CCRN (March 2020) and FNB (March 2020) The preferred setting to identify medium and long-term uptrends is 125 days with 5 days smoothing. 125 days covers around six months. Thus, StochClose(125,5) is a 5-day SMA of the 125-day Stochastic based on closing prices. Smoothing with the 5-day SMA introduces a little lag, but reduces whipsaws and signal noise. StochClose fluctuates between 0 and 100 with 50 as the midpoint. Values above 80 indicate that the current price is near the high end of the 125-day range, while values below 20 indicate that price is near the low end of the range. For signals, a move above 60 puts the indicator firmly in the top half of the range and points to an uptrend. A move below 40 puts the indicator firmly in the bottom half of the range and points to a downtrend. StochClose values can also be ranked to separate the leaders from the laggards. In contrast to Rate-of-Change and Percentage Above/Below a Moving Average, StochClose acts as a volatility-adjusted indicator that can identify trend strength or weakness. The Consumer Staples SPDR is unlikely to win in a Rate-of-Change contest with the Technology SPDR. However, it is just as easy for the Consumer Staples SPDR to get in the top of its range as it is for the Technology SPDR. StochClose puts securities on an equal footing. StochClose measures trend direction and trend strength with one number. The indicator value tells us immediately if the security is trending higher or lower. Furthermore, we can compare this value against the values for other securities. Securities with higher StochClose values are stronger than those with lower values.
Pine Script®指標
由trendinvestorpro提供
2