Simple RSI-MA Algo Beats DOW By Huge Margin Over Past 100 Years!This simple RSI-MA long/short algorithm beats the Dow by a FREAKING HUGE margin over the past century (excluding dividends and trading costs).
The algorithm uses a fast SMA of the RSI as a buy/cover signal and a slow SMA of the RSI as a sell/short signal.
Backtest period = 09/17/1916 - 11/02/2015
Dow = 98 --> 17,830 = +18,094% = 5.38% CAGR
Algorithm = net profit + open P/L = +43,349% = 6.31% CAGR
Notice how the algorithm dodged both the 30s' Great Depression and the 2008 Crisis. Pretty cool huh? :)
ALGORITHM'S FORMULA (use weekly chart):
Buy/Cover = MA10(RSI10) cross> 50
Sell/Short = MA50(RSI10) cross< 50
STRATEGY TESTER'S SETTINGS:
- Initial cash = $10,000
- Pyramiding disabled
- Re-investment enabled (order size = 100% of equity )
- Trade re-calculations disabled
DISCLAIMER: None of my ideas and posts are investment advice. Past performance is not an indication of future results. This strategy was constructed with the benefit of hindsight and its future performance cannot be guaranteed.
在腳本中搜尋"11月1日是什么星座"
BTCCNY premiums over BTCUSD - yuan devaluationBitcoin as an alternative to capital outflows, with a market cap of just 2 billion can easily be up by multiples from the outflow of yuan from mainland China alone.
People simply do not want yuan if their purchasing power is going down over time.
Current methods of taking capital off mainland China via overseas cash withdrawals are quickly being closed out by the communist government.
------------------------------------------------------------
www.zerohedge.com
China has capped the amount of money Chinese holders of bank and credit cards can withdraw outside the country, in its latest effort to discourage people from moving badly needed capital offshore.
China’s foreign-exchange regulator put a new annual cap on overseas cash withdrawals using China UnionPay Co. bank cards, a UnionPay official said on Tuesday. Under the new rules, UnionPay cardholders can withdraw up to 50,000 yuan ($7,854) overseas during the last three months of this year, and the amount will be capped at 100,000 yuan for all of next year, the official said.
State-run UnionPay has a virtual monopoly on processing card transactions in China, meaning the limits extend to nearly all Chinese bank- and credit-card holders. It wasn’t clear when the new cap was issued.
The new cap is in addition to an existing 10,000 yuan daily withdrawal limit, part of China’s curbs on how much money can flow across its borders.
The move by China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange is the latest by Beijing to scrutinize capital outflows.
The People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, said earlier this month that its foreign-exchange reserves fell by $93.9 billion, the biggest monthly drop ever, after it surprised the market on Aug. 11 with its decision to devalue the yuan by around 2%.
Key takeaway from the yuan devaluation and capital control:
The collapse of 2 bubbles: housing and stock market.
Weakness in commodities such as steel, copper and oil are seen which signals a weakening economy of which China are the core driver of that expansion since 2008. I suspect that China's GDP is never 8% as it is reported, but rather near 2~4% right now.
China have spent over 100 billion USD in US treasury proceeds to stabilize the yuan collapsing faster due to speculators. The amount of reserves spent at the current rate is unsustainable, it will take just 2 years for them to be used up completely.
Over time yuan will still be heading downwards.
Candlestick Patterns With EMA and Stochastic6/11/15, Corrected barcolor errors.
Candlestick patterns identified and color coded according to position above or below 8EMA(TLine).
Special thanks to repo32, DavidR, and Chris Moody for coding ideas.
Bullish candlestick buy signals have a greater probability of success when Stochastics are oversold. Bearish ones have a
greater probability of success when overbought. Stack as many factors in your favor as possible. A candlestick signal by itself is of little value unless you apply additional information with it. An 8 EMA is coded also to help with buy/sell signals. Some of the videos by Steven Bigalow are on the Web to see how he uses it.
www.youtube.com
Regardless of systems and strategies used, make your second trade first: Know when you're going to exit. Risk management rules. Good luck and good trading.
Daily ATR%If You are using a percentage of the Daily Average True Range in determining your stop placement,
this quick indicator is for You.
excerpt from investopedia.com/articles/trading/06/stopplacement.asp
ATR % Stop Method
The ATR% stop method can be used by any type of trader because the width of the stop is determined by the percentage of average true range (ATR). ATR is a measure of volatility over a specified period of time. The most common length is 14, which is also a common length for oscillators such as the relative strength index (RSI) and stochastics. A higher ATR indicates a more volatile market, while a lower ATR indicates a less volatile market. By using a certain percentage of ATR, you ensure that your stop is dynamic and changes appropriately with market conditions.
For example, for the first four months of 2006, the GBP/USD average daily range was around 110 to 140 pips. A day trader may want to use a 10% ATR stop - meaning that the stop is placed 10% x ATR pips from the entry price.In this instance, the stop would be anywhere from 11 to 14 pips from your entry price. A swing trader might use 50% or 100% of ATR as a stop. In May and June of 2006, daily ATR was anywhere from 150 to 180 pips. As such, the day trader with the 10% stop would have stops from entry of 15 to 18 pips while the swing trader with 50% stops would have stops of 75 to 90 pips from entry.
Belkhayate Timing [LazyBear]--- Update April 11, 2015 ----
I have merged in @TheMighyChicken's code (Thanks!) and added some more options. Updated source here - pastebin.com
Changes:
--------------
- Switch between plain candles and colored oscillator candles.
- Switch between candles and plain oscillator view.
--- Original Description ---
Belkhayate Timing, by Mostafa Belkhayate, is very famous in the Forex groups. This is a port from one of the MT4 versions available. If you have used this in other platforms, do let me know if this looks compared to those.
The usage is similar to that of ValueChart (). The middle area is the centroid or neutral area, the shaded regions (red/green) are extreme and beyond those are AlertZones. This seems to be used in conjunction with his other indicators, but, in my limited testing, I have seen this give a lot of good signals, especially on divergences.
Indicator allows coloring bars based on the oscillator position or show oscillator histogram (Check the options page).
Histogram=ON:
No Oscillator Smoothing:
@TheMightyChicken Can you do your candle magic on this oscillator too, just like you did for ValueChart? :)
More Info:
www.forexfactory.com
List of my public indicators: bit.ly
List of my app-store indicators: blog.tradingview.com
Candlestick Patterns Identified (updated 3/11/15)I decided to republish this one without the trend filter and with all the major symbols active. This will allow for all the patterns to show up.
Due to 15 different candlestick formations in this one script, it will be difficult to turn off the last few due to screen size. You can turn off individual patterns on the settings screen.
I have everything spelled out except the hammer and inverted hammer. They are "H" and "IH" respectively on the charts. They show up so often that they cluttered the charts.
The default script has: Doji, Evening Star, Morning Star, Shooting Star, Hammer, Inverted Hammer, Bearish Harami, Bullish Harami, Bearish Engulfing, Bullish Engulfing, Piercing Line, Bullish Belt, Bullish Kicker, Bearish Kicker, Hanging man, and Dark Cloud Cover. You can turn off what you don't like. The Piercing Line, Bullish Belt, and the Kickers will usually show up better in the daily charts.
I recommend watching videos with Stephen Bigalow to get a feel for how to trade these. You will want to add an 8 EMA to your chart with his setups. Enjoy.
If you want the old version: Take a look at the related ideas below.
CM RSI-2 Strategy Lower IndicatorRSI-2 Strategy
***At the bottom of the page is a link where you can download the PDF of the Backtesting Results.
This year I am focusing on learning from two of the best mentors in the Industry with outstanding track records for Creating Systems, and learning the what methods actually work as far as back testing.
I came across the RSI-2 system that Larry Connors developed. Larry has become famous for his technical indicators, but his RSI-2 system is what actually put him “On The Map” per se. At first glance I didn’t think it would work well, but I decided to code it and ran backtests on the S&P 100 In Down Trending Markets, Up Trending Markets, and both combined. I was shocked by the results. So I thought I would provide them for you. I also ran a test on the Major forex Pairs (12) for the last 5 years, and All Forex Pairs (80) from 11/28/2007 - 6/09/2014, impressive results also.
The RSI-2 Strategy is designed to use on Daily Bars, however it is a short term trading strategy. The average length of time in a trade is just over 2 days. But the results CRUSH the general market averages.
Detailed Description of Indicators, Rules Below:
Link For PDF of Detailed Trade Results
d.pr
Original Post
CM RSI-2 Strategy - Upper Indicators.RSI-2 Strategy
***At the bottom of the page is a link where you can download the PDF of the Backtesting Results.
This year I am focusing on learning from two of the best mentors in the Industry with outstanding track records for Creating Systems, and learning the what methods actually work as far as back testing.
I came across the RSI-2 system that Larry Connors developed. Larry has become famous for his technical indicators, but his RSI-2 system is what actually put him “On The Map” per se. At first glance I didn’t think it would work well, but I decided to code it and ran backtests on the S&P 100 In Down Trending Markets, Up Trending Markets, and both combined. I was shocked by the results. So I thought I would provide them for you. I also ran a test on the Major forex Pairs (12) for the last 5 years, and All Forex Pairs (80) from 11/28/2007 - 6/09/2014, impressive results also.
The RSI-2 Strategy is designed to use on Daily Bars, however it is a short term trading strategy. The average length of time in a trade is just over 2 days. But the results CRUSH the general market averages.
Detailed Description of Indicators, Rules Below:
Link For PDF of Detailed Trade Results
d.pr
Original Post
DEnvelope [Better Bollinger Bands]*** ***
Bollinger Bands (BB) usually expand quickly after a volatility increase but contract more slowly as volatility declines. This extended time it takes for BB to contract after a volatility drop can make trading some instruments using BB alone difficult or less profitable.
In the October 1998 issue of "Futures" there is an article written by Dennis McNicholl called "Better Bollinger Bands", in which the author recommends improving BB by modifying:
- the center line formula &
- different equations for calculating the bands.
These bands, called "DEnvelope", follow price more closely and respond faster to changes in volatility with these modifications.
Fore more indicators, check out my "Master Index of indicators" (Also check my published charts page for new ones I haven't added to that list):
More scripts related to DEnvelope:
------------------------------------------------
- DEnvelope Bandwidth: pastebin.com
- DEnvelope %B : pastebin.com
Sample chart with above indicators: www.tradingview.com
MAC-Z Indicator [LazyBear]This indicator is a composite of MACD and Z-Score (requested by @ChartAt). The general idea is that counter-trend component of the Z-score is used to adjust/improve the trend component of the MACD. The advantage is that it is a more accurate and “assumption-free” and can more accurately describe how a market or stock actually works in a given time frame.
I have also added support to smooth out the MAC-Z using Laguerre filter (Thanks @TheLark for the excellent LMA). Note that smoothing removes the "noise" component additive of Z-Score, so you may miss some good signals. By default Laguerre smoothing is OFF, I suggest playing with the Gamma to see if you can find a proper trade-off value.
Theme credits --> @liw0
More info:
cssanalytics.wordpress.com
Squeeze Momentum Indicator [LazyBear]
Fixed a typo in the code where BB multiplier was stuck at 1.5. Thanks @ucsgears for bringing it to my notice.
Updated source: pastebin.com
Use the updated source instead of the what TV shows below.
This is a derivative of John Carter's "TTM Squeeze" volatility indicator, as discussed in his book "Mastering the Trade" (chapter 11).
Black crosses on the midline show that the market just entered a squeeze (Bollinger Bands are with in Keltner Channel). This signifies low volatility, market preparing itself for an explosive move (up or down). Gray crosses signify "Squeeze release".
Mr.Carter suggests waiting till the first gray after a black cross, and taking a position in the direction of the momentum (for ex., if momentum value is above zero, go long). Exit the position when the momentum changes (increase or decrease --- signified by a color change). My (limited) experience with this shows, an additional indicator like ADX / WaveTrend, is needed to not miss good entry points. Also, Mr.Carter uses simple momentum indicator, while I have used a different method (linreg based) to plot the histogram.
More info:
- Book: Mastering The Trade by John F Carter
List of all my indicators:
AK TREND ID v1.00Hello,
"Are we at the top yet ? "........ " Is it a good time to invest ? " ......." Should I buy or sell ? " These are the many questions I hear and get on the daily basis. 1000's of investors do not know when to go in and out of the market. Most of them rely on the opinion of "experts" on television to make their investment decisions. Bad idea.Taking a systematic approach when investing, could save you a lot of time and headache. If there was only a way to know when to get in and out of the market !! hmmmm. The good news is that there many ways to do that. The bad news is , are you disciplined enough to follow it ?
I coded the AK_TREND ID specifically to identified trends in the SPX or SPY only . How does it work ? very simply , I simply plot the spread between the 3 month and 8 month moving average on the chart.
If the spread > 0 @ month end = BUY
if the spread < 0 @ month end = SELL
The AK TREND ID is a LAGGING Indicator , so it will not get you in at the very bottom or get you out at the very top. I did a backtest on the SPX from 1984 to 7/2/2014 (yesterday), The rule was to buy only when the AK TREND ID was green. let's look at the result:
14 trades : 11 W 3 L , 78.75 % winning %
Biggest winner (%) = 108 %
Biggest loser (%) = -10.7 %
Average Return = 27 %
Total Return since 1984 = 351.3 %
You can see the result in detail here : docs.google.com
Although the backtesting results are good, the AK TREND ID is not to be used as a trading system. It is simply design to let you know when to invest and when to get out. I'm working a more accurate version of this Indicator , that will use both technical and fundamental data. In the mean time , I hope this will give some of you piece of mind, and eliminate emotions from your trading decision. Feel free to modify the code as you wish, but please share your finding with the rest of Trading View community.
All the best
Algo
