Statistics • Chi Square • P-value • SignificanceThe Statistics • Chi Square • P-value • Significance publication aims to provide a tool for combining different conditions and checking whether the outcome is significant using the Chi-Square Test and P-value.
🔶 USAGE
The basic principle is to compare two or more groups and check the results of a query test, such as asking men and women whether they want to see a romantic or non-romantic movie.
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
| | ROMANTIC | NON-ROMANTIC | ⬅︎ MOVIE |
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
| MEN | 2 | 8 | 10 |
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
| WOMEN | 7 | 3 | 10 |
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
|⬆︎ SEX | 10 | 10 | 20 |
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
We calculate the Chi-Square Formula, which is:
Χ² = Σ ( (Observed Value − Expected Value)² / Expected Value )
In this publication, this is:
chiSquare = 0.
for i = 0 to rows -1
for j = 0 to colums -1
observedValue = aBin.get(i).aFloat.get(j)
expectedValue = math.max(1e-12, aBin.get(i).aFloat.get(colums) * aBin.get(rows).aFloat.get(j) / sumT) //Division by 0 protection
chiSquare += math.pow(observedValue - expectedValue, 2) / expectedValue
Together with the 'Degree of Freedom', which is (rows − 1) × (columns − 1) , the P-value can be calculated.
In this case it is P-value: 0.02462
A P-value lower than 0.05 is considered to be significant. Statistically, women tend to choose a romantic movie more, while men prefer a non-romantic one.
Users have the option to choose a P-value, calculated from a standard table or through a math.ucla.edu - Javascript-based function (see references below).
Note that the population (10 men + 10 women = 20) is small, something to consider.
Either way, this principle is applied in the script, where conditions can be chosen like rsi, close, high, ...
🔹 CONDITION
Conditions are added to the left column ('CONDITION')
For example, previous rsi values (rsi ) between 0-100, divided in separate groups
🔹 CLOSE
Then, the movement of the last close is evaluated
UP when close is higher then previous close (close )
DOWN when close is lower then previous close
EQUAL when close is equal then previous close
It is also possible to use only 2 columns by adding EQUAL to UP or DOWN
UP
DOWN/EQUAL
or
UP/EQUAL
DOWN
In other words, when previous rsi value was between 80 and 90, this resulted in:
19 times a current close higher than previous close
14 times a current close lower than previous close
0 times a current close equal than previous close
However, the P-value tells us it is not statistical significant.
NOTE: Always keep in mind that past behaviour gives no certainty about future behaviour.
A vertical line is drawn at the beginning of the chosen population (max 4990)
Here, the results seem significant.
🔹 GROUPS
It is important to ensure that the groups are formed correctly. All possibilities should be present, and conditions should only be part of 1 group.
In the example above, the two top situations are acceptable; close against close can only be higher, lower or equal.
The two examples at the bottom, however, are very poorly constructed.
Several conditions can be placed in more than 1 group, and some conditions are not integrated into a group. Even if the results are significant, they are useless because of the group formation.
A population count is added as an aid to spot errors in group formation.
In this example, there is a discrepancy between the population and total count due to the absence of a condition.
The results when rsi was between 5-25 are not included, resulting in unreliable results.
🔹 PRACTICAL EXAMPLES
In this example, we have specific groups where the condition only applies to that group.
For example, the condition rsi > 55 and rsi <= 65 isn't true in another group.
Also, every possible rsi value (0 - 100) is present in 1 of the groups.
rsi > 15 and rsi <= 25 28 times UP, 19 times DOWN and 2 times EQUAL. P-value: 0.01171
When looking in detail and examining the area 15-25 RSI, we see this:
The population is now not representative (only checking for RSI between 15-25; all other RSI values are not included), so we can ignore the P-value in this case. It is merely to check in detail. In this case, the RSI values 23 and 24 seem promising.
NOTE: We should check what the close price did without any condition.
If, for example, the close price had risen 100 times out of 100, this would make things very relative.
In this case (at least two conditions need to be present), we set 1 condition at 'always true' and another at 'always false' so we'll get only the close values without any condition:
Changing the population or the conditions will change the P-value.
In the following example, the outcome is evaluated when:
close value from 1 bar back is higher than the close value from 2 bars back
close value from 1 bar back is lower/equal than the close value from 2 bars back
Or:
close value from 1 bar back is higher than the close value from 2 bars back
close value from 1 bar back is equal than the close value from 2 bars back
close value from 1 bar back is lower than the close value from 2 bars back
In both examples, all possibilities of close against close are included in the calculations. close can only by higher, equal or lower than close
Both examples have the results without a condition included (5 = 5 and 5 < 5) so one can compare the direction of current close.
🔶 NOTES
• Always keep in mind that:
Past behaviour gives no certainty about future behaviour.
Everything depends on time, cycles, events, fundamentals, technicals, ...
• This test only works for categorical data (data in categories), such as Gender {Men, Women} or color {Red, Yellow, Green, Blue} etc., but not numerical data such as height or weight. One might argue that such tests shouldn't use rsi, close, ... values.
• Consider what you're measuring
For example rsi of the current bar will always lead to a close higher than the previous close, since this is inherent to the rsi calculations.
• Be careful; often, there are na -values at the beginning of the series, which are not included in the calculations!
• Always keep in mind considering what the close price did without any condition
• The numbers must be large enough. Each entry must be five or more. In other words, it is vital to make the 'population' large enough.
• The code can be developed further, for example, by splitting UP, DOWN in close UP 1-2%, close UP 2-3%, close UP 3-4%, ...
• rsi can be supplemented with stochRSI, MFI, sma, ema, ...
🔶 SETTINGS
🔹 Population
• Choose the population size; in other words, how many bars you want to go back to. If fewer bars are available than set, this will be automatically adjusted.
🔹 Inputs
At least two conditions need to be chosen.
• Users can add up to 11 conditions, where each condition can contain two different conditions.
🔹 RSI
• Length
🔹 Levels
• Set the used levels as desired.
🔹 Levels
• P-value: P-value retrieved using a standard table method or a function.
• Used function, derived from Chi-Square Distribution Function; JavaScript
LogGamma(Z) =>
S = 1
+ 76.18009173 / Z
- 86.50532033 / (Z+1)
+ 24.01409822 / (Z+2)
- 1.231739516 / (Z+3)
+ 0.00120858003 / (Z+4)
- 0.00000536382 / (Z+5)
(Z-.5) * math.log(Z+4.5) - (Z+4.5) + math.log(S * 2.50662827465)
Gcf(float X, A) => // Good for X > A +1
A0=0., B0=1., A1=1., B1=X, AOLD=0., N=0
while (math.abs((A1-AOLD)/A1) > .00001)
AOLD := A1
N += 1
A0 := A1+(N-A)*A0
B0 := B1+(N-A)*B0
A1 := X*A0+N*A1
B1 := X*B0+N*B1
A0 := A0/B1
B0 := B0/B1
A1 := A1/B1
B1 := 1
Prob = math.exp(A * math.log(X) - X - LogGamma(A)) * A1
1 - Prob
Gser(X, A) => // Good for X < A +1
T9 = 1. / A
G = T9
I = 1
while (T9 > G* 0.00001)
T9 := T9 * X / (A + I)
G := G + T9
I += 1
G *= math.exp(A * math.log(X) - X - LogGamma(A))
Gammacdf(x, a) =>
GI = 0.
if (x<=0)
GI := 0
else if (x
Chisqcdf = Gammacdf(Z/2, DF/2)
Chisqcdf := math.round(Chisqcdf * 100000) / 100000
pValue = 1 - Chisqcdf
🔶 REFERENCES
mathsisfun.com, Chi-Square Test
Chi-Square Distribution Function
在腳本中搜尋"28年大学生毕业人数"
BAERMThe Bitcoin Auto-correlation Exchange Rate Model: A Novel Two Step Approach
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. THIS ARTICLE IS FOR EDUCATIONAL AND ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY.
If you enjoy this software and information, please consider contributing to my lightning address
Prelude
It has been previously established that the Bitcoin daily USD exchange rate series is extremely auto-correlated
In this article, we will utilise this fact to build a model for Bitcoin/USD exchange rate. But not a model for predicting the exchange rate, but rather a model to understand the fundamental reasons for the Bitcoin to have this exchange rate to begin with.
This is a model of sound money, scarcity and subjective value.
Introduction
Bitcoin, a decentralised peer to peer digital value exchange network, has experienced significant exchange rate fluctuations since its inception in 2009. In this article, we explore a two-step model that reasonably accurately captures both the fundamental drivers of Bitcoin’s value and the cyclical patterns of bull and bear markets. This model, whilst it can produce forecasts, is meant more of a way of understanding past exchange rate changes and understanding the fundamental values driving the ever increasing exchange rate. The forecasts from the model are to be considered inconclusive and speculative only.
Data preparation
To develop the BAERM, we used historical Bitcoin data from Coin Metrics, a leading provider of Bitcoin market data. The dataset includes daily USD exchange rates, block counts, and other relevant information. We pre-processed the data by performing the following steps:
Fixing date formats and setting the dataset’s time index
Generating cumulative sums for blocks and halving periods
Calculating daily rewards and total supply
Computing the log-transformed price
Step 1: Building the Base Model
To build the base model, we analysed data from the first two epochs (time periods between Bitcoin mining reward halvings) and regressed the logarithm of Bitcoin’s exchange rate on the mining reward and epoch. This base model captures the fundamental relationship between Bitcoin’s exchange rate, mining reward, and halving epoch.
where Yt represents the exchange rate at day t, Epochk is the kth epoch (for that t), and epsilont is the error term. The coefficients beta0, beta1, and beta2 are estimated using ordinary least squares regression.
Base Model Regression
We use ordinary least squares regression to estimate the coefficients for the betas in figure 2. In order to reduce the possibility of over-fitting and ensure there is sufficient out of sample for testing accuracy, the base model is only trained on the first two epochs. You will notice in the code we calculate the beta2 variable prior and call it “phaseplus”.
The code below shows the regression for the base model coefficients:
\# Run the regression
mask = df\ < 2 # we only want to use Epoch's 0 and 1 to estimate the coefficients for the base model
reg\_X = df.loc\ [mask, \ \].shift(1).iloc\
reg\_y = df.loc\ .iloc\
reg\_X = sm.add\_constant(reg\_X)
ols = sm.OLS(reg\_y, reg\_X).fit()
coefs = ols.params.values
print(coefs)
The result of this regression gives us the coefficients for the betas of the base model:
\
or in more human readable form: 0.029, 0.996869586, -0.00043. NB that for the auto-correlation/momentum beta, we did NOT round the significant figures at all. Since the momentum is so important in this model, we must use all available significant figures.
Fundamental Insights from the Base Model
Momentum effect: The term 0.997 Y suggests that the exchange rate of Bitcoin on a given day (Yi) is heavily influenced by the exchange rate on the previous day. This indicates a momentum effect, where the price of Bitcoin tends to follow its recent trend.
Momentum effect is a phenomenon observed in various financial markets, including stocks and other commodities. It implies that an asset’s price is more likely to continue moving in its current direction, either upwards or downwards, over the short term.
The momentum effect can be driven by several factors:
Behavioural biases: Investors may exhibit herding behaviour or be subject to cognitive biases such as confirmation bias, which could lead them to buy or sell assets based on recent trends, reinforcing the momentum.
Positive feedback loops: As more investors notice a trend and act on it, the trend may gain even more traction, leading to a self-reinforcing positive feedback loop. This can cause prices to continue moving in the same direction, further amplifying the momentum effect.
Technical analysis: Many traders use technical analysis to make investment decisions, which often involves studying historical exchange rate trends and chart patterns to predict future exchange rate movements. When a large number of traders follow similar strategies, their collective actions can create and reinforce exchange rate momentum.
Impact of halving events: In the Bitcoin network, new bitcoins are created as a reward to miners for validating transactions and adding new blocks to the blockchain. This reward is called the block reward, and it is halved approximately every four years, or every 210,000 blocks. This event is known as a halving.
The primary purpose of halving events is to control the supply of new bitcoins entering the market, ultimately leading to a capped supply of 21 million bitcoins. As the block reward decreases, the rate at which new bitcoins are created slows down, and this can have significant implications for the price of Bitcoin.
The term -0.0004*(50/(2^epochk) — (epochk+1)²) accounts for the impact of the halving events on the Bitcoin exchange rate. The model seems to suggest that the exchange rate of Bitcoin is influenced by a function of the number of halving events that have occurred.
Exponential decay and the decreasing impact of the halvings: The first part of this term, 50/(2^epochk), indicates that the impact of each subsequent halving event decays exponentially, implying that the influence of halving events on the Bitcoin exchange rate diminishes over time. This might be due to the decreasing marginal effect of each halving event on the overall Bitcoin supply as the block reward gets smaller and smaller.
This is antithetical to the wrong and popular stock to flow model, which suggests the opposite. Given the accuracy of the BAERM, this is yet another reason to question the S2F model, from a fundamental perspective.
The second part of the term, (epochk+1)², introduces a non-linear relationship between the halving events and the exchange rate. This non-linear aspect could reflect that the impact of halving events is not constant over time and may be influenced by various factors such as market dynamics, speculation, and changing market conditions.
The combination of these two terms is expressed by the graph of the model line (see figure 3), where it can be seen the step from each halving is decaying, and the step up from each halving event is given by a parabolic curve.
NB - The base model has been trained on the first two halving epochs and then seeded (i.e. the first lag point) with the oldest data available.
Constant term: The constant term 0.03 in the equation represents an inherent baseline level of growth in the Bitcoin exchange rate.
In any linear or linear-like model, the constant term, also known as the intercept or bias, represents the value of the dependent variable (in this case, the log-scaled Bitcoin USD exchange rate) when all the independent variables are set to zero.
The constant term indicates that even without considering the effects of the previous day’s exchange rate or halving events, there is a baseline growth in the exchange rate of Bitcoin. This baseline growth could be due to factors such as the network’s overall growth or increasing adoption, or changes in the market structure (more exchanges, changes to the regulatory environment, improved liquidity, more fiat on-ramps etc).
Base Model Regression Diagnostics
Below is a summary of the model generated by the OLS function
OLS Regression Results
\==============================================================================
Dep. Variable: logprice R-squared: 0.999
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.999
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 2.041e+06
Date: Fri, 28 Apr 2023 Prob (F-statistic): 0.00
Time: 11:06:58 Log-Likelihood: 3001.6
No. Observations: 2182 AIC: -5997.
Df Residuals: 2179 BIC: -5980.
Df Model: 2
Covariance Type: nonrobust
\==============================================================================
coef std err t P>|t| \
\------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const 0.0292 0.009 3.081 0.002 0.011 0.048
logprice 0.9969 0.001 1012.724 0.000 0.995 0.999
phaseplus -0.0004 0.000 -2.239 0.025 -0.001 -5.3e-05
\==============================================================================
Omnibus: 674.771 Durbin-Watson: 1.901
Prob(Omnibus): 0.000 Jarque-Bera (JB): 24937.353
Skew: -0.765 Prob(JB): 0.00
Kurtosis: 19.491 Cond. No. 255.
\==============================================================================
Below we see some regression diagnostics along with the regression itself.
Diagnostics: We can see that the residuals are looking a little skewed and there is some heteroskedasticity within the residuals. The coefficient of determination, or r2 is very high, but that is to be expected given the momentum term. A better r2 is manually calculated by the sum square of the difference of the model to the untrained data. This can be achieved by the following code:
\# Calculate the out-of-sample R-squared
oos\_mask = df\ >= 2
oos\_actual = df.loc\
oos\_predicted = df.loc\
residuals\_oos = oos\_actual - oos\_predicted
SSR = np.sum(residuals\_oos \*\* 2)
SST = np.sum((oos\_actual - oos\_actual.mean()) \*\* 2)
R2\_oos = 1 - SSR/SST
print("Out-of-sample R-squared:", R2\_oos)
The result is: 0.84, which indicates a very close fit to the out of sample data for the base model, which goes some way to proving our fundamental assumption around subjective value and sound money to be accurate.
Step 2: Adding the Damping Function
Next, we incorporated a damping function to capture the cyclical nature of bull and bear markets. The optimal parameters for the damping function were determined by regressing on the residuals from the base model. The damping function enhances the model’s ability to identify and predict bull and bear cycles in the Bitcoin market. The addition of the damping function to the base model is expressed as the full model equation.
This brings me to the question — why? Why add the damping function to the base model, which is arguably already performing extremely well out of sample and providing valuable insights into the exchange rate movements of Bitcoin.
Fundamental reasoning behind the addition of a damping function:
Subjective Theory of Value: The cyclical component of the damping function, represented by the cosine function, can be thought of as capturing the periodic fluctuations in market sentiment. These fluctuations may arise from various factors, such as changes in investor risk appetite, macroeconomic conditions, or technological advancements. Mathematically, the cyclical component represents the frequency of these fluctuations, while the phase shift (α and β) allows for adjustments in the alignment of these cycles with historical data. This flexibility enables the damping function to account for the heterogeneity in market participants’ preferences and expectations, which is a key aspect of the subjective theory of value.
Time Preference and Market Cycles: The exponential decay component of the damping function, represented by the term e^(-0.0004t), can be linked to the concept of time preference and its impact on market dynamics. In financial markets, the discounting of future cash flows is a common practice, reflecting the time value of money and the inherent uncertainty of future events. The exponential decay in the damping function serves a similar purpose, diminishing the influence of past market cycles as time progresses. This decay term introduces a time-dependent weight to the cyclical component, capturing the dynamic nature of the Bitcoin market and the changing relevance of past events.
Interactions between Cyclical and Exponential Decay Components: The interplay between the cyclical and exponential decay components in the damping function captures the complex dynamics of the Bitcoin market. The damping function effectively models the attenuation of past cycles while also accounting for their periodic nature. This allows the model to adapt to changing market conditions and to provide accurate predictions even in the face of significant volatility or structural shifts.
Now we have the fundamental reasoning for the addition of the function, we can explore the actual implementation and look to other analogies for guidance —
Financial and physical analogies to the damping function:
Mathematical Aspects: The exponential decay component, e^(-0.0004t), attenuates the amplitude of the cyclical component over time. This attenuation factor is crucial in modelling the diminishing influence of past market cycles. The cyclical component, represented by the cosine function, accounts for the periodic nature of market cycles, with α determining the frequency of these cycles and β representing the phase shift. The constant term (+3) ensures that the function remains positive, which is important for practical applications, as the damping function is added to the rest of the model to obtain the final predictions.
Analogies to Existing Damping Functions: The damping function in the BAERM is similar to damped harmonic oscillators found in physics. In a damped harmonic oscillator, an object in motion experiences a restoring force proportional to its displacement from equilibrium and a damping force proportional to its velocity. The equation of motion for a damped harmonic oscillator is:
x’’(t) + 2γx’(t) + ω₀²x(t) = 0
where x(t) is the displacement, ω₀ is the natural frequency, and γ is the damping coefficient. The damping function in the BAERM shares similarities with the solution to this equation, which is typically a product of an exponential decay term and a sinusoidal term. The exponential decay term in the BAERM captures the attenuation of past market cycles, while the cosine term represents the periodic nature of these cycles.
Comparisons with Financial Models: In finance, damped oscillatory models have been applied to model interest rates, stock prices, and exchange rates. The famous Black-Scholes option pricing model, for instance, assumes that stock prices follow a geometric Brownian motion, which can exhibit oscillatory behavior under certain conditions. In fixed income markets, the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model for interest rates also incorporates mean reversion and stochastic volatility, leading to damped oscillatory dynamics.
By drawing on these analogies, we can better understand the technical aspects of the damping function in the BAERM and appreciate its effectiveness in modelling the complex dynamics of the Bitcoin market. The damping function captures both the periodic nature of market cycles and the attenuation of past events’ influence.
Conclusion
In this article, we explored the Bitcoin Auto-correlation Exchange Rate Model (BAERM), a novel 2-step linear regression model for understanding the Bitcoin USD exchange rate. We discussed the model’s components, their interpretations, and the fundamental insights they provide about Bitcoin exchange rate dynamics.
The BAERM’s ability to capture the fundamental properties of Bitcoin is particularly interesting. The framework underlying the model emphasises the importance of individuals’ subjective valuations and preferences in determining prices. The momentum term, which accounts for auto-correlation, is a testament to this idea, as it shows that historical price trends influence market participants’ expectations and valuations. This observation is consistent with the notion that the price of Bitcoin is determined by individuals’ preferences based on past information.
Furthermore, the BAERM incorporates the impact of Bitcoin’s supply dynamics on its price through the halving epoch terms. By acknowledging the significance of supply-side factors, the model reflects the principles of sound money. A limited supply of money, such as that of Bitcoin, maintains its value and purchasing power over time. The halving events, which reduce the block reward, play a crucial role in making Bitcoin increasingly scarce, thus reinforcing its attractiveness as a store of value and a medium of exchange.
The constant term in the model serves as the baseline for the model’s predictions and can be interpreted as an inherent value attributed to Bitcoin. This value emphasizes the significance of the underlying technology, network effects, and Bitcoin’s role as a medium of exchange, store of value, and unit of account. These aspects are all essential for a sound form of money, and the model’s ability to account for them further showcases its strength in capturing the fundamental properties of Bitcoin.
The BAERM offers a potential robust and well-founded methodology for understanding the Bitcoin USD exchange rate, taking into account the key factors that drive it from both supply and demand perspectives.
In conclusion, the Bitcoin Auto-correlation Exchange Rate Model provides a comprehensive fundamentally grounded and hopefully useful framework for understanding the Bitcoin USD exchange rate.
MicroStrategy / Bitcoin Market Cap RatioThis indicator offers a unique analytical perspective by comparing the market capitalization of MicroStrategy (MSTR) with that of Bitcoin (BTC) . Designed for investors and analysts interested in the correlation between MicroStrategy's financial performance and the Bitcoin market, the script calculates and visualizes the ratio of MSTR's market capitalization to Bitcoin's market capitalization.
Key Features:
Start Date: The script considers data starting from July 28, 2020, aligning with MicroStrategy's initial announcement to invest in Bitcoin.
Data Sources: It retrieves real-time data for MSTR's total shares outstanding, MSTR's stock price, and BTC's market capitalization.
Market Cap Calculations: The script calculates MicroStrategy's market cap by multiplying its stock price with the total shares outstanding. It then forms a ratio of MSTR's market cap to BTC's market cap.
Bollinger Bands: To add a layer of analysis, the script includes Bollinger Bands around the ratio, with customizable parameters for length and multiplier. These bands can help identify overbought or oversold conditions in the relationship between MSTR's and BTC's market values.
The indicator plots the MSTR/BTC market cap ratio and the Bollinger Bands, providing a clear visual representation of the relationship between these two market values over time.
This indicator is ideal for users who are tracking the impact of Bitcoin's market movements on MicroStrategy's valuation or vice versa. It provides a novel way to visualize and analyze the interconnectedness of a leading cryptocurrency asset and a major corporate investor in the space.
Elliott's Quadratic Momentum - Strategy [presentTrading]█ Introduction and How It Is Different
The "Elliott's Quadratic Momentum - Strategy" is a unique and innovative approach in the realm of technical trading. This strategy is a fusion of multiple SuperTrend indicators combined with an Elliott Wave-like pattern analysis, offering a comprehensive and dynamic trading tool. It stands apart from conventional strategies by incorporating multiple layers of trend analysis, thereby providing a more robust and nuanced view of market movements.
*Although the script doesn't explicitly analyze Elliott Wave patterns, it employs a wave-like approach by considering multiple SuperTrend indicators. Elliott Wave theory is based on the premise that markets move in predictable wave patterns. While this script doesn't identify specific Elliott Wave structures like impulsive and corrective waves, the sequential checking of trend conditions across multiple SuperTrend indicators mimics a wave-like progression.
BTC 8hr Long/Short Performance
Local Detail
█ Strategy, How It Works: Detailed Explanation
The core of this strategy lies in its multi-tiered approach:
1. Multiple SuperTrend Indicators:
The strategy employs four different SuperTrend indicators, each with unique ATR lengths and multipliers. These indicators offer various perspectives on market trends, ranging from short to long-term views.
By analyzing the convergence of these indicators, the strategy can pinpoint robust entry signals for both long and short positions.
2. Elliott Wave-like Pattern Recognition:
While not directly applying Elliott Wave theory, the strategy takes inspiration from its pattern recognition approach. It looks for alignments in market movements that resemble the characteristic waves of Elliott's theory.
This pattern recognition aids in confirming the signals provided by the SuperTrend indicators, adding an extra layer of validation to the trading signals.
3. Comprehensive Market Analysis:
By combining multiple indicators and pattern analysis, the strategy offers a holistic view of the market. This allows for capturing potential trend reversals and significant market moves early.
█ Trade Direction
The strategy is designed with flexibility in mind, allowing traders to select their preferred trading direction – Long, Short, or Both. This adaptability is key for traders looking to tailor their approach to different market conditions or personal trading styles. The strategy automatically adjusts its logic based on the chosen direction, ensuring that traders are always aligned with their strategic objectives.
█ Usage
To utilize the "Elliott's Quadratic Momentum - Strategy" effectively:
Traders should first determine their trading direction and adjust the SuperTrend settings according to their market analysis and risk appetite.
The strategy is versatile and can be applied across various time frames and asset classes, making it suitable for a wide range of trading scenarios.
It's particularly effective in trending markets, where the alignment of multiple SuperTrend indicators can provide strong trade signals.
█ Default Settings
Trading Direction: Configurable (Long, Short, Both)
SuperTrend Settings:
SuperTrend 1: ATR Length 7, Multiplier 4.0
SuperTrend 2: ATR Length 14, Multiplier 3.618
SuperTrend 3: ATR Length 21, Multiplier 3.5
SuperTrend 4: ATR Length 28, Multiplier 3.382
Additional Settings: Gradient effect for trend visualization, customizable color schemes for upward and downward trends.
7 consecutive closes above/below the 5-periodThis script looks for 7 consecutive closes above/below the 5-period SMA. The indicator is inspired by legendary trader Linda Raschke's work.
First are the two models for which the indicator was created, both inspired by Raschke:
1) Persistency of trend / Extended run setup.
Around 10-12 times per year we get a persistency of trend in instruments in general.
After 7 consecutive closes above/below the 5-period as price pulls back we can look to enter in the direction of the main trend as it moves up/down above/below 5 ma again. You should use price action trading to pinpoint the entries. Now try to hold this as long as possible. Way longer than you can percieve or think is possible. Up to 24-28 periods is what we are looking for in these cases.
2) Normal usage.
When the trend is not persistent, it is possible to use this as an oscillating signal, for a shorter term trade, where we can look for a short or long term reversal setup in price action.
3) I also use it at as a learning to see the swing trades clearer. You can also use it as a visual aid for developing new variances of the classic swing trading setup.
Read and listen to Linda Raschkes work to learn more.
7 Closes above/below 5 SMAThis script looks for 7 consecutive closes above/below the 5-period SMA. The indicator is inspired by legendary trader Linda Raschke's work.
Usage
The script can can be used in three main ways. I think you will find more uses.
First are the two models for which the indicator was created, both inspired by Raschke:
1) Persistency of trend / Extended run setup.
Around 10-12 times per year we get a persistency of trend in instruments in general.
After 7 consecutive closes above/below the 5-period as price pulls back we can look to enter in the direction of the main trend as it moves up/down above/below 5 ma again. You should use price action trading to pinpoint the entries. Now try to hold this as long as possible. Way longer than you can percieve or think is possible. Up to 24-28 periods is what we are looking for in these cases.
2) Normal usage.
When the trend is not persistent, it is possible to use this as an oscillating signal, for a shorter term trade, where we can look for a short or long term reversal setup in price action.
3) I also use it at as a learning to see the swing trades clearer. You can also use it as a visual aid for developing new variances of the classic swing trading setup.
Read and listen to Linda Raschkes work to learn more.
TIme frames
The principles works in all time frames but may change depending on calendar differences. We will see more instances/year in shorter time frames.
Why closes above the 5 SMA
As you may or may not know the 5 SMA is a very important indicator. You can think of it like this, If price is above 5, it is innocent until proven guilty but if price is below 5 we use the french law system which means it is guilty until proven innocent. 7 closes above 5 is a very good predictor of possible short term direction changes.
Use together with:
I prefer to use this indicator together with either regular SMA:s, one short and one macro term. For example 10 ma and 100 ma.
Or you can use it with a a Hull 21-period MA together with a 240-period WMA.
Settings:
I added settings so you can change preferences for changing shape, where to display the shape and in what color
Visual aid
I wanted to keep one dot for each consecutive day, this way we will get a grouping of days and dots. The amount in this group can be of use in itself to inform you of the strength of trend. This can inform you if this oscillation predicts a short term eversal or a continuation. You need skills in reading price action to use this to your advantage.
Pure Morning 2.0 - Candlestick Pattern Doji StrategyThe new "Pure Morning 2.0 - Candlestick Pattern Doji Strategy" is a trend-following, intraday cryptocurrency trading system authored by devil_machine.
The system identifies Doji and Morning Doji Star candlestick formations above the EMA60 as entry points for long trades.
For best results we recommend to use on 15-minute, 30-minute, or 1-hour timeframes, and are ideal for high-volatility markets.
The strategy also utilizes a profit target or trailing stop for exits, with stop loss set at the lowest low of the last 100 candles. The strategy's configuration details, such as Doji tolerance, and exit configurations are adjustable.
In this new version 2.0, we've incorporated a new selectable filter. Since the stop loss is set at the lowest low, this filter ensures that this value isn't too far from the entry price, thereby optimizing the Risk-Reward ratio.
In the specific case of ALPINE, a 9% Take-Profit and and Stop-Loss at Lowest Low of the last 100 candles were set, with an activated trailing-stop percentage, Max Loss Filter is not active.
Name : Pure Morning 2.0 - Candlestick Pattern Doji Strategy
Author : @devil_machine
Category : Trend Follower based on candlestick patterns.
Operating mode : Spot or Futures (only long).
Trades duration : Intraday
Timeframe : 15m, 30m, 1H
Market : Crypto
Suggested usage : Short-term trading, when the market is in trend and it is showing high volatility .
Entry : When a Doji or Morning Doji Star formation occurs above the EMA60.
Exit : Profit target or Trailing stop, Stop loss on the lowest low of the last 100 candles.
Configuration :
- Doji Settings (tolerances) for Entry Condition
- Max Loss Filter (Lowest Low filter)
- Exit Long configuration
- Trailing stop
Backtesting :
⁃ Exchange: BINANCE
⁃ Pair: ALPINEUSDT
⁃ Timeframe: 30m
⁃ Fee: 0.075%
⁃ Slippage: 1
- Initial Capital: 10000 USDT
- Position sizing: 10% of Equity
- Start: 2022-02-28 (Out Of Sample from 2022-12-23)
- Bar magnifier: on
Disclaimer : Risk Management is crucial, so adjust stop loss to your comfort level. A tight stop loss can help minimise potential losses. Use at your own risk.
How you or we can improve? Source code is open so share your ideas!
Leave a comment and smash the boost button!
Thanks for your attention, happy to support the TradingView community.
RSI, SRSI, MACD and DMI cross - Open source codeHello,
I'm a passionate trader who has spent years studying technical analysis and exploring different trading strategies. Through my research, I've come to realize that certain indicators are essential tools for conducting accurate market analysis and identifying profitable trading opportunities. In particular, I've found that the RSI, SRSI, MACD cross, and Di cross indicators are crucial for my trading success.
Detailed explanation:
The RSI is a momentum indicator that measures the strength of price movements. It is calculated by comparing the average of gains and losses over a certain period of time. In this indicator, the RSI is calculated based on the close price with a length of 14 periods.
The Stochastic RSI is a combination of the Stochastic Oscillator and the RSI. It is used to identify overbought and oversold conditions of the market. In this indicator, the Stochastic RSI is calculated based on the RSI with a length of 14 periods.
The MACD is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. It consists of two lines, the MACD line and the signal line, which are used to generate buy and sell signals. In this indicator, the MACD is calculated based on the close price with fast and slow lengths of 12 and 26 periods, respectively, and a signal length of 9 periods.
The DMI is a trend-following indicator that measures the strength of directional movement in the market. It consists of three lines, the Positive Directional Indicator (+DI), the Negative Directional Indicator (-DI), and the Average Directional Index (ADX), which are used to generate buy and sell signals. In this indicator, the DMI is calculated with a length of 14 periods and an ADX smoothing of 14 periods.
The indicator generates buy signals when certain conditions are met for each of these indicators.
1) For the RSI, a buy signal is generated when the RSI is below or equal to 35 and the Stochastic RSI %K is below or equal to 15, or when the RSI is below or equal to 28 the Stochastic RSI %K is below or equal to 15 or when the RSI is below or equal to 25 and the Stochastic RSI %K is below or equal to 10 or when the RSI is below or equal to 28.
2) For the MACD, a buy signal is generated when the MACD line is below 0, there is a change in the histogram from negative to positive, the MACD line and histogram are negative in the previous period, and the current histogram value is greater than 0.
3) For the DMI, a buy signal is generated when the Positive Directional Indicator (+DI) crosses above the Negative Directional Indicator (-DI), and the -DI is less than the +DI.
The indicator generates sell signals when certain conditions are met for each of these indicators:
1) For the RSI, a sell signal is generated when the RSI is above or equal to 75 and the Stochastic RSI %K is above or equal to 85, or when the RSI is above or equal to 80 and the Stochastic RSI %K is above or equal to 85, or when the RSI is above or equal to 85 and the Stochastic RSI %K is above or equal to 90 or when the RSI is above or equal to 82.
2)For the MACD, a sell signal is generated when the MACD line is above 0, there is a change in the histogram from positive to negative, the MACD line and histogram are positive in the previous period, and the current histogram value is less than the previous histogram value. On the other hand, a buy signal is generated when the MACD line is below 0, there is a change in the histogram from negative to positive, the MACD line and histogram are negative in the previous period, and the current histogram value is greater than the previous histogram value.
3)For the DMI a bearish signal is generated when plusDI crosses above minusDI, indicating that bulls are losing strength and bears are taking control.
The indicator uses a combination of these four indicators to generate potential buy and sell signals. The buy signals are generated when RSI and SRSI values are in oversold conditions, while sell signals are generated when RSI and SRSI values are in overbought conditions. The indicator also uses MACD crossovers and DMI crossovers to generate additional buy and sell signals.
When a signal is strong?
The use of multiple signals within a specific timeframe can increase the accuracy and reliability of the signals generated by this indicator. It is recommended to look for at least two signals within a range of 5-8 candles in order to increase the probability of a successful trade.
Why it's original?
1) There is no indicator in the library that combine all of these indicators and give you a 360 view
2)The combination of the RSI, Stochastic RSI, MACD, and DMI indicators in a single script it's unique and not available in the libray.
3)The specific parameters and conditions used to calculate the signals may be unique and not found in other scripts or libraries.
4)The use of plotshape() to plot the signals as shapes on the chart may be unique compared to other scripts that simply plot lines or bars to indicate signals.
5)The use of alertcondition() to trigger alerts based on the signals may be unique compared to other scripts that do not have custom alert functionality.
Keep attention!
It is important to note that no trading indicator or strategy is foolproof, and there is always a risk of losses in trading. While this indicator may provide useful information for making conclusions, it should not be used as the sole basis for making trading decisions. Traders should always use proper risk management techniques and consider multiple factors when making trading decisions.
Support me:)
If you find this new indicator helpful in your trading analysis, I would greatly appreciate your support! Please consider giving it a like, leaving feedback, or sharing it with your trading network. Your engagement will not only help me improve this tool but will also help other traders discover it and benefit from its features. Thank you for your support!
SPY 4 Hour Swing TraderThe purpose of this script is to spot 4 hour pivots that indicate ~30 trading day swings. As VIX starts to drop options trading will get more boring and as we get back on the bull and can benefit from swing trading strategy. Swing trading doesn't make a whole lot of sense when VIX is above 28. Seems to get best results on 4 hour chart for this one. This indicator spots a go long opportunity when the 5 ema crosses the 13 ema on the 4 hour along with the RSI > 50 and the ADX > 20 and Stoichastic values (smoothed line < 80 or line < 90) and close > last candle close and the True Range < 6. It also spots uses a couple different means to determine when to exit the trade. Sell condition is primarily when the 13 ema crosses the 5 ema and the MACD line crosses below the signal line and the smoothed Stoichastic appears oversold (greater than 60) and slop of RSI < -.2. Stop Losses and Take Profits are configurable in Inputs along with ability to include short trades plus other MACD and Stoichastic settings. If a stop loss is encountered the trade will close. Also once twice the expected move is encountered partial profits will taken and stop losses and take profits will be re-established based on most recent close. Also a VIX above 28 will trigger any open positions to close. If trying to use this for something other than SPXL it is best to update stop losses and take profit percentages and check backtest results to ensure proper levels have been selected and the script gives satisfactory results.
Fetch Buy And Hold StrategyThis script was created as an experiment using ChatGPT. I actually woudn't recommend using the ai program to help you with your Pinescripts, as it makes a fair amount of mistakes. It was a fun experiment however.
The script is a simple buy and hold tool. Here's what it does:
- Everytime the rsi enters below the set treshold, a counter increases.
- The second increase of the counter happens when the price goes above the treshold, and then dips below the treshold again.
- The program would fire off a buy signal when the counter hits the number 3.
- After the buy. the counter will reset.
Lets take a look at the following example where the rsi treshold is 30:
- So the rsi dips below 30 and the initial counter is set from 0 to 1.
- The price rises which brings the rsi back to 40.
- Then another dip happens and the rsi is now 25, increasing the counter from 1 two.
- Rsi now dips to 23 and nothing happens.
- Rsi goes back up to 31, and dips back to 28 which puts the counter at 3. A buy singal is now fired and the counter is set to 0.
Nonfarm [TjnTjn]This indicator will draw a line on your chart to show the Nonfarm announcement date and a line showing the Nonfarm announcement time for that day.
Because normally the Nonfarm announcement date is not simply the first Friday of the month. Because there are days Nonfarm days can be 8 or 9 or 10.
By checking the entire history of nonfarm announcements, I found some more rules such as if the first Friday of the month hits a holiday, the nonfarm day will be the friday of the following week. The previous months are 28, 29, or 30 days and if the first Friday of this month is on the 3, 2 or 1, the nonfarm day will be the friday of the following week.
Since this type of indicator is not available on the Tradingview library, I have put it up for everyone's convenience to backtest the price movement on nonfarm days to better support trading or simply to avoid trading at time of announed nonfarm.
libKageMiscLibrary "libKageMisc"
Kage's Miscelaneous library
print(_value)
Print a numerical value in a label at last historical bar.
Parameters:
_value : (float) The value to be printed.
Returns: Nothing.
barsBackToDate(_year, _month, _day)
Get the number of bars we have to go back to get data from a specific date.
Parameters:
_year : (int) Year of the specific date.
_month : (int) Month of the specific date. Optional. Default = 1.
_day : (int) Day of the specific date. Optional. Default = 1.
Returns: (int) Number of bars to go back until reach the specific date.
bodySize(_index)
Calculates the size of the bar's body.
Parameters:
_index : (simple int) The historical index of the bar. Optional. Default = 0.
Returns: (float) The size of the bar's body in price units.
shadowSize(_direction)
Size of the current bar shadow. Either "top" or "bottom".
Parameters:
_direction : (string) Direction of the desired shadow.
Returns: (float) The size of the chosen bar's shadow in price units.
shadowBodyRatio(_direction)
Proportion of current bar shadow to the bar size
Parameters:
_direction : (string) Direction of the desired shadow.
Returns: (float) Ratio of the shadow size per body size.
bodyCloseRatio(_index)
Proportion of chosen bar body size to the close price
Parameters:
_index : (simple int) The historical index of the bar. Optional. Default = 0.()
Returns: (float) Ratio of the body size per close price.
lastDayOfMonth(_month)
Returns the last day of a month.
Parameters:
_month : (int) Month number.
Returns: (int) The number (28, 30 or 31) of the last day of a given month.
nameOfMonth(_month)
Return the short name of a month.
Parameters:
_month : (int) Month number.
Returns: (string) The short name ("Jan", "Feb"...) of a given month.
pl(_initialValue, _finalValue)
Calculate Profit/Loss between two values.
Parameters:
_initialValue : (float) Initial value.
_finalValue : (float) Final value = Initial value + delta.
Returns: (float) Profit/Loss as a percentual change.
gma(_Type, _Source, _Length)
Generalist Moving Average (GMA).
Parameters:
_Type : (string) Type of average to be used. Either "EMA", "HMA", "RMA", "SMA", "SWMA", "WMA" or "VWMA".
_Source : (series float) Series of values to process.
_Length : (simple int) Number of bars (length).
Returns: (float) The value of the chosen moving average.
xFormat(_percentValue, _minXFactor)
Transform a percentual value in a X Factor value.
Parameters:
_percentValue : (float) Percentual value to be transformed.
_minXFactor : (float) Minimum X Factor to that the conversion occurs. Optional. Default = 10.
Returns: (string) A formated string.
isLong()
Check if the open trade direction is long.
Returns: (bool) True if the open position is long.
isShort()
Check if the open trade direction is short.
Returns: (bool) True if the open position is short.
lastPrice()
Returns the entry price of the last openned trade.
Returns: (float) The last entry price.
barsSinceLastEntry()
Returns the number of bars since last trade was oppened.
Returns: (series int)
getBotNameFrosty()
Return the name of the FrostyBot Bot.
Returns: (string) A string containing the name.
getBotNameZig()
Return the name of the FrostyBot Bot.
Returns: (string) A string containing the name.
getTicksValue(_currencyValue)
Converts currency value to ticks
Parameters:
_currencyValue : (float) Value to be converted.
Returns: (float) Value converted to minticks.
getSymbol(_botName, _botCustomSymbol)
Formats the symbol string to be used with a bot
Parameters:
_botName : (string) Bot name constant. Either BOT_NAME_FROSTY or BOT_NAME_ZIG. Optional. Default is empty string.
_botCustomSymbol : (string) Custom string. Optional. Default is empy string.
Returns: (string) A string containing the symbol for the bot. If all arguments are empty, the current symbol is returned in Binance format.
showProfitLossBoard()
Calculates and shows a board of Profit/Loss through the years.
Returns: Nothing.
Forex Strength IndicatorThis indicator will display the strength of 8 currencies, EUR, AUD, NZD, JPY, USD, GBP, CHF, and CAD. Each line will represent each currency. Alongside that, Fibonacci levels will be plotted based on a standard deviation from linear regression, with customizable lengths.
For more steady Fibonacci levels, use higher lengths for both Standard Deviations and Linear Regression. All currency lines come from moving averages with options like EMA, SMA, WMA, RMA, HMA, SWMA, and Linear Regression.
When lines of the active pair are far from each other, it means higher divergence in those currency strengths among the other pairs. The closer the lines are, the lower the divergence.
You can use the Fibonacci levels as points for the reversal or end of the current trend. When the lines cross can be used as a parameter for a more accurate signal of the next movement.
All 28 pairs are loaded from the same time frame and will use the same moving average for all of them
Alerts from the line crossing are available.
Selected Dates Filter by @zeusbottradingWe are presenting you feature for strategies in Pine Script.
This function/pine script is about NOT opening trades on selected days. Real usage is for bank holidays or volatile days (PPI, CPI, Interest Rates etc.) in United States and United Kingdom from 2020 to 2030 (10 years of dates of bank holidays in mentioned countries above). Strategy is simple - SMA crossover of two lengts 14 and 28 with close source.
In pine script you can see we picked US and GB bank holidays. If you add this into your strategy, your bot will not open trades on those days. You must make it a rule or a condition. We use it as a rule in opening long/short trades.
You can also add some of your prefered dates, here is just example of our idea. If you want to add your preffered days you can find them on any site like forexfactory, myfxbook and so on. But don’t forget to add function “time_tradingday ! = YourChoosedDate” as it is writen lower in the pine script.
Sometimes the date is substituted for a different day, because the day of the holiday is on Saturday or Sunday.
Made with ❤️ for this community.
If you have any questions or suggestions, let us know.
The script is for informational and educational purposes only. Use of the script does not constitutes professional and/or financial advice. You alone the sole responsibility of evaluating the script output and risks associated with the use of the script. In exchange for using the script, you agree not to hold zeusbottrading TradingView user liable for any possible claim for damages arising from any decision you make based on use of the script.
TechnicalRating█ OVERVIEW
This library is a Pine Script™ programmer’s tool for incorporating TradingView's well-known technical ratings within their scripts. The ratings produced by this library are the same as those from the speedometers in the technical analysis summary and the "Rating" indicator in the Screener , which use the aggregate biases of 26 technical indicators to calculate their results.
█ CONCEPTS
Ensemble analysis
Ensemble analysis uses multiple weaker models to produce a potentially stronger one. A common form of ensemble analysis in technical analysis is the usage of aggregate indicators together in hopes of gaining further market insight and reinforcing trading decisions.
Technical ratings
Technical ratings provide a simplified way to analyze financial markets by combining signals from an ensemble of indicators into a singular value, allowing traders to assess market sentiment more quickly and conveniently than analyzing each constituent separately. By consolidating the signals from multiple indicators into a single rating, traders can more intuitively and easily interpret the "technical health" of the market.
Calculating the rating value
Using a variety of built-in TA functions and functions from our ta library, this script calculates technical ratings for moving averages, oscillators, and their overall result within the `calcRatingAll()` function.
The function uses the script's `calcRatingMA()` function to calculate the moving average technical rating from an ensemble of 15 moving averages and filters:
• Six Simple Moving Averages and six Exponential Moving Averages with periods of 10, 20, 30, 50, 100, and 200
• A Hull Moving Average with a period of 9
• A Volume-Weighted Moving Average with a period of 20
• An Ichimoku Cloud with a conversion line length of 9, base length of 26, and leading span B length of 52
The function uses the script's `calcRating()` function to calculate the oscillator technical rating from an ensemble of 11 oscillators:
• RSI with a period of 14
• Stochastic with a %K period of 14, a smoothing period of 3, and a %D period of 3
• CCI with a period of 20
• ADX with a DI length of 14 and an ADX smoothing period of 14
• Awesome Oscillator
• Momentum with a period of 10
• MACD with fast, slow, and signal periods of 12, 26, and 9
• Stochastic RSI with an RSI period of 14, a %K period of 14, a smoothing period of 3, and a %D period of 3
• Williams %R with a period of 14
• Bull Bear Power with a period of 50
• Ultimate Oscillator with fast, middle, and slow lengths of 7, 14, and 28
Each indicator is assigned a value of +1, 0, or -1, representing a bullish, neutral, or bearish rating. The moving average rating is the mean of all ratings that use the `calcRatingMA()` function, and the oscillator rating is the mean of all ratings that use the `calcRating()` function. The overall rating is the mean of the moving average and oscillator ratings, which ranges between +1 and -1. This overall rating, along with the separate MA and oscillator ratings, can be used to gain insight into the technical strength of the market. For a more detailed breakdown of the signals and conditions used to calculate the indicators' ratings, consult our Help Center explanation.
Determining rating status
The `ratingStatus()` function produces a string representing the status of a series of ratings. The `strongBound` and `weakBound` parameters, with respective default values of 0.5 and 0.1, define the bounds for "strong" and "weak" ratings.
The rating status is determined as follows:
Rating Value Rating Status
< -strongBound Strong Sell
< -weakBound Sell
-weakBound to weakBound Neutral
> weakBound Buy
> strongBound Strong Buy
By customizing the `strongBound` and `weakBound` values, traders can tailor the `ratingStatus()` function to fit their trading style or strategy, leading to a more personalized approach to evaluating ratings.
Look first. Then leap.
█ FUNCTIONS
This library contains the following functions:
calcRatingAll()
Calculates 3 ratings (ratings total, MA ratings, indicator ratings) using the aggregate biases of 26 different technical indicators.
Returns: A 3-element tuple: ( [(float) ratingTotal, (float) ratingOther, (float) ratingMA ].
countRising(plot)
Calculates the number of times the values in the given series increase in value up to a maximum count of 5.
Parameters:
plot : (series float) The series of values to check for rising values.
Returns: (int) The number of times the values in the series increased in value.
ratingStatus(ratingValue, strongBound, weakBound)
Determines the rating status of a given series based on its values and defined bounds.
Parameters:
ratingValue : (series float) The series of values to determine the rating status for.
strongBound : (series float) The upper bound for a "strong" rating.
weakBound : (series float) The upper bound for a "weak" rating.
Returns: (string) The rating status of the given series ("Strong Buy", "Buy", "Neutral", "Sell", or "Strong Sell").
Weird Renko StratThis strategy uses Renko, it generates a signal when there is a reversal in Renko. When using historical data, it provides a good entry and an okay exit. However, in a real-time environment, this strategy is subject to repaint and may produce a false signal.
As a result, the backtesting result should not be used as a metric to predict future results. It is highly recommended to forward-test the strategy before using it in real trading. I forward test it from 12/18/2022 to 12/21/2022 in paper trading, using the alert feature in Tradingview. I made 60 trades trading the BTCUSDT BINANCE 3 min with 26 as the param and under the condition that I use 20x margin, compounding my yield, and having 0 trading fee, a steady loss is generated: from $10 to $3.02.
This is quite interesting. As if I flip the signal from "Long" to "Short" and another way too, it will be a steady profit from $10 to $21.85. Hence, if I'm trying to anti-trade the real-time alert signal, the current "4 Days Result" will be good. Nevertheless, I still have to forward-test it for longer to see if it will fail eventually.
Dive into the setting of the strategy
- Margin is the leverage you use. 1 means 1x, 10 means 10x. It affects the backtest yield when you backtest
- Compound Yield button is for compound calculation, disable it to go back to normal backtesting
- Anti Strategy button is to do the opposite direction trade, when the original strat told you to "Long", you "Short" instead. Enable it to use the feature
- Param is the block size for the Renko chart
- Drawdown is just a visual tool for you in case you want to place a stop loss (represent by the semitransparent red area in the chart)
- From date Thru Date is to specify the backtest range of the strategy, This feature is turned off by default. It is controlled by the Max Backtest Timeframe which will be explain below
- Max Backtest Timeframe control the From date Thru Date function, disable it to enable the From Date Thru Date function
Param is the most important input in this strategy as it directly affects performance. It is highly recommended to backtest nearly all the possible parameters before deploying it in real trading. Some factors should be considered:
- Price of the asset (like an asset of 1 USD vs an asset of 10000 USD required different param)
- Timeframe (1-minute param is different than 1-month param)
I believe this is caused by the volatility of the selected timeframe since different timeframe has different volatility. Param should be fine-tuned before usage.
Here is the param I'm using:
BTCUSDT BINANCE 3min: 26
BTCUSDT BINANCE 5min: 28
BTCUSDT BINANCE 1day: 15
Background of the strategy:
- The strategy starts with $10 at the start of backtesting (customizable in setting)
- The trading fee is set to 0.00% which is not common for most of the popular exchanges (customizable in setting)
- The contract size is not a fixed amount, but it uses your balance to buy it at the open price. If you are using the compound mode, your balance will be your current total balance. If you are using the non-compound mode, it will just use the $10 you start with unless you change the amount you start with. If you are using a margin higher than 1, it will calculate the corresponding contract size properly based on your margin. (Only these options are allowed, you are not able to change them without changing the code)
KH MA Cross, Very basic script, my first actually.
8, 21, 50 MA,
Crosses of MAs both bullish and or bearish will print a rectangle,
Enjoy,
Kurt Hennig,
28, 10, 22 Build
RSI Buy & Sell Trading ScriptThis is my first attempt at a trading script using the RSI indicator for Buy & Sell signals (so please be nice but would appreciate any constructive comments).
Starting with $100 initial capital and using 10% per trade
You can select which month the backtesting starts
There is also a monthly table (sorry can’t remember who I got this from) that shows the total monthly profits, but you’ll need to turn it on by going into settings, Properties and in the Recalculate section tick the “On every tick” box
It should do the following:
Open Buy order if the RSI > 68 and the current Moving Average is greater than the previous Moving average
• TP1 = 50% of Order at 0.4%
• TP2 = 50% of order at 0.8%
• SL = 2% below entry
• Close Buy order if the RSI < 30
Open Sell order if the RSI < 28 and the current Moving Average is less than the previous Moving average
• TP1 = 50% of Order at 0.4%
• TP2 = 50% of order at 0.8%
• SL = 2% above entry
• Close Buy order if the RSI < 60
I would like to build on this if you have any ideas/ code that could help like the following:
• Move the SL to break even when it hits TP1
• Move the SL to TP1 when TP2 hits
• Moving take profit code so I can let the some of the trade stay in play (activate if it hits 1% profit and close trade if price retracts 0.5%)
True Average Period Traded RangeTrue Average Period Trading Range (TAPTR)
The J. Welles Wilder Average True Range calculation includes the ability to calculate in gaps into the equation.
It is in my opinion that gaps are untraded range values until the prices on their own come back and close the gaps.
The TAPTR calculation is simple, it is the average for a set period of time of the HIGH - LOW.
The ATR average calculation is automatically set based on the timeframe period you are looking at.
12 Months (1 year) = 10 (1 decade)
Months = 12 (1 year)
Weeks = 12 (1 business quarter)
Days = 21 (1 trading month)
4 Hour = 9 (5 trading days)
1 Hour = 33 (5 trading days)
45 minutes = 9 (1 trading day)
30 minutes = 14 (1 trading day)
15 minutes = 28 (1 trading day)
10 minutes = 42 (1 trading day)
5 minutes = 85 (1 trading day)
1 minute = 420 (1 trading day)
default value = 21 (if using a timeframe not described above)
The "master trend" as being a 21 SMA.
The colored columns represent the actual range value for that time period.
Description of values from left to right.
1) Actual Trade Range Value for the time period you are viewing
2) % of price (in decimal, you need multiply by 100 to get the true percent)
3) Average Traded Range
4) % of price
5) .618 of Average Traded Range
6) % of price
7) Mean of #3 and #5
8) % of price
The % of price is displayed in its calculated form. You need to multiple the value by 100 if you want the actual percent.
Example: Displayed Value: 0.0246 = 2.46%
Why calculated form only? If the ranges are .72 and the % of price is 2.32 the indicator looks all jacked up like a redneck's pick-up.
However, if it is .0232, everything is to scale.
Why is % of price helpful?
If you are trading and are aware that average period traded range is 5%, you now have an idea of an average return if you could catch from low to high (or short high to low).
Bar Colors
RED is greater than 4.2x TAPTR
ORANGE is greater than 2.618x TAPTR but less than RED
YELLOW is greater than 1.618x TAPTR but less than ORANGE
GREEN is greater than .618x TAPTR but less than YELLOW
BLUE is less than GREEN
The colors of the bars represent how far from the Master Trend (21 SMA) the close is.
This is determined by taking the difference between the close and the 21 SMA and dividing by the current TAPTR.
EXAMPLE:
IF you have a RED bar, the close is greater than 4.2 TAPTRs away from the 21 SMA. This means that either prices will stall and remain flat until
the SMA comes to the prices or turn and return to the SMA.
If prices are greater than 4.2 TAPTR, that also represents that it is greater than 4 or more time periods from the mean if the return traded within the averages.
Fast v Slow Moving Averages Strategy (Variable) [divonn1994]This is a simple moving average based strategy that takes 2 moving averages, a Fast and a Slow one, plots them both, and then decides to enter a 'long' position or exit it based on whether the two lines have crossed each other. It goes 'long when the Fast Moving Average crosses above the Slow Moving Average. This could indicate upwards momentum in prices in the future. It then exits the position when the the Fast Moving Average crosses back below. This could indicate downwards momentum in prices in the future. This is only speculative, though, but sometimes it can be a very good indicator/strategy to predict future action.
I've tried some strategy settings and I found different promising strategies. Here are a few:
BTCUSD ( BitStamp ) 1 Day Timeframe : EMA, Fast length 25 bars, Slow length 62 bars => 28,792x net profit (default)
BTCUSD ( BitStamp ) 1 Day Timeframe : VWMA, Fast length 21 bars, Slow length 60 bars => 15,603x net profit
BTCUSD ( BitStamp ) 1 Day Timeframe : SMA, Fast length 18 bars, Slow length 51 bars => 19,507x net profit
BTCUSD ( BitStamp ) 1 Day Timeframe : RMA, Fast length 20 bars, Slow length 52 bars => 5,729x net profit
BTCUSD ( BitStamp ) 1 Day Timeframe : WMA, Fast length 29 bars, Slow length 60 bars => 19,869x net profit
Features:
-You can choose your preferred moving average: SMA , EMA , WMA , RMA & VWMA .
-You can change the length average for each moving average
-I made the background color Green when you're currently in a long position and Red when not. I made it so you can see when you'd be actively in a trade or not. The Red and Green background colors can be toggled on/off in order to see other indicators more clearly overlayed in the chart, or if you prefer a cleaner look on your charts.
-I also have a plot of the Fast moving average and Slow moving average together. The Opening moving average is Purple, the Closing moving average is White. White on top is a sign of a potential upswing and purple on top is a sign of a potential downswing. I've made this also able to be toggled on/off.
Let me know if you think I should change anything with my script, I'm always open to constructive criticism so feel free to comment below :)
Revolver Oscillator Strategy 1.2 (RSI+UO+MFI)ROS (Revolver Oscillator Strategy)
Version 1.2
Description
This script combines three popular oscillators (RSI, Ultimate Oscillator and MFI) to accurately determine the price momentum of an asset.
Context
- RSI (Relative Strength Index) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements over a period of time (14).
- Ultimate Oscillator uses three different periods (7, 14, and 28) to represent short, medium, and long-term market trends.
- Money Flow Index (MFI) is a momentum indicator that measures the flow of money into and out over a period of time. It is related to the Relative Strength Index (RSI) but incorporates volume, whereas the RSI only considers price
How does it work?
When a RED bar appears, it means that the three oscillators have exceeded the set thresholds, and it is a SELL signal.
When a GREEN bar appears, it means that the three oscillators are below the set thresholds, and it is a BUY signal.
I recommend leaving the default settings.
Masculine Relative StrengthThis relative strength indicator compares the G8 currencies against each other in all 28 combinations. It uses the 200 period moving average as a scoring system. For example on eurusd if current price action is above the MA that is +1 for the eur and -1 for the dollar and the inverse is applied if current price is under the 200 ma. The higher the number the stronger the currency. The weaker the number the weaker the currency. Pair the strongest currency with the weakest. This indicator does not guarentee profits and past performance does not guarentee the same future results.
even_better_sinewave_mod
Description:
Even better sinewave was an indicator developed by John F. Ehlers (see Cycle Analytics for Trader, pg. 159), in which improvement to cycle measurements completely relies on strong normalization of the waveform. The indicator aims to create an artificially predictive indicator by transferring the cyclic data swings into a sine wave. In this indicator, the modified is on the weighted moving average as a smoothing function, instead of using the super smoother, aim to be more adaptive, and the default length is set to 55 bars.
Sinewave
smoothing = (7*hp + 6*hp_1 + 5*hp_2+ 4*hp_3 + 3*hp_4 + 2*hp5 + hp_6) /28
normalize = wave/sqrt(power)
Notes:
sinewave indicator crossing over -0.9 is considered to beginning of the cycle while crossing under 0.9 is considered as an end of the cycle
line color turns to green considered as a confirmation of an uptrend, while turns red as a confirmation of a downtrend
confidence of using indicator will be much in confirmation paired with another indicator such dynamic trendline e.g. moving average
as cited within Ehlers book Cycle Analytic for Traders, the indicator will be useful if the satisfied market cycle mode and the period of the dominant cycle must be estimated with reasonable accuracy
Other Example
