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MSTY-WNTR Rebalancing SignalMSTY-WNTR Rebalancing Signal ## Overview The **MSTY-WNTR Rebalancing Signal** is a custom TradingView indicator designed to help investors dynamically allocate between two YieldMax ETFs: **MSTY** (YieldMax MSTR Option Income Strategy ETF) and **WNTR** (YieldMax Short MSTR Option Income Strategy ETF). These ETFs are tied to MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock, which is heavily influenced by Bitcoin's price due to MSTR's significant Bitcoin holdings. MSTY benefits from upward movements in MSTR (and thus Bitcoin) through a covered call strategy that generates income but caps upside potential. WNTR, on the other hand, provides inverse exposure, profiting from MSTR declines but losing in rallies. This indicator uses Bitcoin's momentum and MSTR's relative strength to signal when to hold MSTY (bullish phases), WNTR (bearish phases), or stay neutral, aiming to optimize returns by switching allocations at key turning points. Inspired by strategies discussed in crypto communities (e.g., X posts analyzing MSTR-linked ETFs), this indicator promotes an active rebalancing approach over a "set and forget" buy-and-hold strategy. In simulated backtests over the past 12 months (as of August 4, 2025), the optimized version has shown potential to outperform holding 100% MSTY or 100% WNTR alone, with an illustrative APY of ~125% vs. ~6% for MSTY and ~-15% for WNTR in one scenario. **Important Disclaimer**: This is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult a financial advisor. Trading involves risk, and you could lose money. The indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. ## Key Features - **Momentum-Based Signals**: Uses a Simple Moving Average (SMA) on Bitcoin's price to detect bullish (price > SMA) or bearish (price < SMA) trends. - **RSI Confirmation**: Incorporates MSTR's Relative Strength Index (RSI) to filter signals, avoiding overbought conditions for MSTY and oversold for WNTR. - **Visual Cues**: - Green upward triangle for "Hold MSTY". - Red downward triangle for "Hold WNTR". - Yellow cross for "Switch" signals. - Background color: Green for MSTY, red for WNTR. - **Information Panel**: A table in the top-right corner displays real-time data: BTC Price, SMA value, MSTR RSI, and current Allocation (MSTY, WNTR, or Neutral). - **Alerts**: Configurable alerts for holding MSTY, holding WNTR, or switching. - **Optimized Parameters**: Defaults are tuned (SMA: 10 days, RSI: 15 periods, Overbought: 80, Oversold: 20) based on simulations to reduce whipsaws and capture trends effectively. ## How It Works The indicator's logic is straightforward yet effective for volatile assets like Bitcoin and MSTR: 1. **Primary Trigger (Bitcoin Momentum)**: - Calculate the SMA of Bitcoin's closing price (default: 10-day). - Bullish: Current BTC price > SMA → Potential MSTY hold. - Bearish: Current BTC price < SMA → Potential WNTR hold. 2. **Secondary Filter (MSTR RSI Confirmation)**: - Compute RSI on MSTR stock (default: 15-period). - For bullish signals: If RSI > Overbought (80), signal Neutral (avoid overextended rallies). - For bearish signals: If RSI < Oversold (20), signal Neutral (avoid capitulation bottoms). 3. **Allocation Rules**: - Hold 100% MSTY if bullish and not overbought. - Hold 100% WNTR if bearish and not oversold. - Neutral otherwise (e.g., during choppy or extreme markets) – consider holding cash or avoiding trades. 4. **Rebalancing**: - Switch signals trigger when the hold changes (e.g., from MSTY to WNTR). - Recommended frequency: Weekly reviews or on 5% BTC moves to minimize trading costs (aim for 4-6 trades/year). This approach leverages Bitcoin's influence on MSTR while mitigating the risks of MSTY's covered call drag during downtrends and WNTR's losses in uptrends. ## Setup and Usage 1. **Chart Requirements**: - Apply this indicator to a Bitcoin chart (e.g., BTCUSD on Binance or Coinbase, daily timeframe recommended). - Ensure MSTR stock data is accessible (TradingView supports it natively). 2. **Adding to TradingView**: - Open the Pine Editor. - Paste the script code. - Save and add to your chart. - Customize inputs if needed (e.g., adjust SMA/RSI lengths for different timeframes). 3. **Interpretation**: - **Green Background/Triangle**: Allocate 100% to MSTY – Bitcoin is in an uptrend, MSTR not overbought. - **Red Background/Triangle**: Allocate 100% to WNTR – Bitcoin in downtrend, MSTR not oversold. - **Yellow Switch Cross**: Rebalance your portfolio immediately. - **Neutral (No Signal)**: Panel shows "Neutral" – Hold cash or previous position; reassess weekly. - Monitor the panel for key metrics to validate signals manually. 4. **Backtesting and Strategy Integration**: - Convert to a strategy script by changing `indicator()` to `strategy()` and adding entry/exit logic for automated testing. - In simulations (e.g., using Python or TradingView's backtester), it has outperformed buy-and-hold in volatile markets by ~100-200% relative APY, but results vary. - Factor in fees: ETF expense ratios (~0.99%), trading commissions (~$0.40/trade), and slippage. 5. **Risk Management**: - Use with a diversified portfolio; never allocate more than you can afford to lose. - Add stop-losses (e.g., 10% trailing) to protect against extreme moves. - Rebalance sparingly to avoid over-trading in sideways markets. - Dividends: Reinvest MSTY/WNTR payouts into the current hold for compounding. ## Performance Insights (Simulated as of August 4, 2025) Based on synthetic backtests modeling the last 12 months: - **Optimized Strategy APY**: ~125% (by timing switches effectively). - **Hold 100% MSTY APY**: ~6% (gains from BTC rallies offset by downtrends). - **Hold 100% WNTR APY**: ~-15% (losses in bull phases outweigh bear gains). In one scenario with stronger volatility, the strategy achieved ~4533% APY vs. 10% for MSTY and -34% for WNTR, highlighting its potential in dynamic markets. However, these are illustrative; real results depend on actual BTC/MSTR movements. Test thoroughly on historical data. ## Limitations and Considerations - **Data Dependency**: Relies on accurate BTC and MSTR data; delays or gaps can affect signals. - **Market Risks**: Bitcoin's volatility can lead to false signals (whipsaws); the RSI filter helps but isn't perfect. - **No Guarantees**: This indicator doesn't predict the future. MSTR's correlation to BTC may change (e.g., due to regulatory events). - **Not for All Users**: Best for intermediate/advanced traders familiar with ETFs and crypto. Beginners should paper trade first. - **Updates**: As of August 4, 2025, this is version 1.0. Future updates may include volume filters or EMA options. If you find this indicator useful, consider leaving a like or comment on TradingView. Feedback welcome for improvements!
Pine Script®指標
由Smartmate提供
MA Cross 7-21MA Crossover Definition This indicator calculates and plots two moving averages, the MA7 and MA21, and highlights candlesticks where they cross. It indicates when a trend is changing, becoming weaker or stronger, in the short term. Summary The Moving Average Crossover indicator sounds simple enough. It measures two moving averages and detects when they cross. The two moving averages measured are the MA7 and MA21. A crossover indicates that the MA7 is now above the MA21, and vice versa. This indicator can be used in conjunction with other moving averages or trend-following indicators to better understand momentum.
Pine Script®指標
由Aiforu提供
Currency Weekend - shading weekend trading// ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── // © 2025, Steve / Steven Anthony – "Currency Weekend" // This script highlights the low-liquidity weekend window that often affects // both fiat currency markets and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. // // ╭─────────────────────────────── DESCRIPTION ───────────────────────────────╮ // | This indicator shades a customizable time window on your chart, | // | originally set to highlight the **forex weekend lull** from | // | **Friday 21:00 UTC to Sunday 21:00 UTC**, when traditional fiat | // | currency markets close. | // | | // | Traders who observe Bitcoin, Ethereum, or other crypto assets may | // | notice reduced liquidity or increased erratic moves during this time, | // | due to overlapping behaviors from professional forex traders who | // | trade both markets. | // ╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯ // // 🔧 Flexible Configuration: // - Define your own start and end **day + time** for shading // - Useful for shading other custom quiet periods or session transitions // // 💡 Use Cases: // - Avoid trading during low-liquidity periods // - Spot potential weekend traps or price gaps // - Align crypto behavior with fiat market hours // // 📍 Default Settings: // - Start: Friday 21:00 UTC // - End: Sunday 21:00 UTC // // Timezone is normalized to the chart’s timezone for seamless integration. // // ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Pine Script®指標
由TradeTitan120提供
SMC TimingThis indicator (“SMC Timing”) visually marks the exact moments when the market typically experiences large liquidity injections—moments that often trigger strong directional moves. By plotting dashed vertical lines and labels at key session boundaries and news events (Frankfurt open, London open, EU mid-session pause, Pre-US, US open, 14:30 U.S. news releases, 15:00 breakout window, and the London close), it draws your attention to the times when stop-runs and institutional orders tend to pile into the market. Traders can use these timing zones to: Anticipate liquidity sweeps where smart-money often liquidates weak positions or hunts stops. Plan higher-probability entries just before or directly after these injections, reducing slippage and improving execution. Improve win-rate consistency by aligning your trades with the natural ebb and flow of institutional flow rather than fading it. With customizable session toggles, a “today-only” filter, and a small vertical offset to keep markers clear of price bars, this tool seamlessly integrates into any chart. Positioning yourself around these highlighted times helps you capture the bulk of intraday moves and avoids getting caught in low-liquidity chop.
Pine Script®指標
由Remiaucha提供
RSI Z‑Score + TableRSI Z-Score + Table This script calculates the Z-Score of the RSI (Relative Strength Index), which standardizes RSI based on its own recent history. What It Shows: RSI Z-Score = (Current RSI - Mean RSI) / Standard Deviation This tells you how extreme the current RSI is compared to its historical values. A table displays: Current RSI Rolling Mean RSI Z-Score How to Use: Z-Score > +2 = Statistically overbought Z-Score < -2 = Statistically oversold Use it to time reversals or overextension in RSI behavior. 🔒 Based on rolling lookback window — fully customizable. Author: Tags: #RSI #ZScore #Momentum #StatisticalEdge #MeanReversion #Crypto
Pine Script®指標
由kevin_zijlstra提供
2% Averaging Buy-Sell Strategy📘 Strategy Description: 2% Averaging Buy-Sell Strategy This strategy is designed to simulate an averaging-down and scaling-out approach based on percentage-based price movements. Entry Logic (Buy): Initial buy of 1 lot is triggered at the start of the strategy. Every time the price drops by 2% from the last executed buy level, the strategy adds 2 more lots. Exit Logic (Sell): When the price rises 2% from the last buy level, the strategy sells 2 lots. Selling continues in batches of 2 lots as long as the upward movement continues and lots are available. Core Idea: This is a dynamic averaging system that increases exposure during drawdowns and reduces it during rallies, aiming to capture mean reversion or trend reversals. Customizable Inputs: Initial lot size Additional lot size Percentage threshold (default 2%) ⚠️ Note: This strategy is for simulation/backtesting purposes. It does not account for slippage, fees, or real-world order execution conditions.
Pine Script®指標
由nilu903636提供
Smart Order Blocks [Pro Version]Here’s a **clear, detailed "How It Works" explanation** for this indicator: --- ## ✅ **Smart Order Blocks \ – How It Works** ### **Purpose** This indicator detects **Order Blocks (OBs)** based on **pivot highs and lows**, and automatically marks **Bullish** and **Bearish OB zones** on the chart with optional extensions and alerts. It is designed to help traders identify **institutional price levels** where liquidity is often engineered for future price moves. --- ### **Customization Options** ✔ **Source** → Choose between Wicks or Bodies for OB calculation. ✔ **Pivot Settings** → Adjust sensitivity for detecting pivots. ✔ **Extend OBs** → Keep zones visible until tapped, or fix a specific width. ✔ **Show Labels** → Displays OB type and strength on chart. ✔ **Colors** → Configure Bullish, Bearish, and Invalid OB colors. --- ### **Practical Usage** * **Entry Strategy**: * Wait for price to **revisit a Bullish OB** in an uptrend → Long entry. * Wait for price to **revisit a Bearish OB** in a downtrend → Short entry. * Combine with: * **Market Structure (HH/HL or LH/LL)**. * **Confirmation signals** (e.g., candlestick pattern, break of structure). * **Risk Management** → Stop loss outside OB zone. --- ### ✅ **Summary in One Sentence** The indicator automatically identifies **institutional OB zones**, shows their strength, extends them until mitigated, and alerts you when price interacts with these key liquidity levels, helping you trade like Smart Money. ---
Pine Script®指標
由MSultan74提供
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