Price/Time CyclesThis is a script for laying out cycles of price & time that are square (though you can adjust the ratios)
There is an "Auto-cycle" option also
You may have to adjust the ratios of both time & price in different ways to get the right settings but you can experiment
Limit the amount of price lines you are displaying otherwise you may get some errors in the information plotted
(the script says max 10 but really there is no true maximum set & you will get missing information as it begins to plot too many lines... I'll try to define this in the future)
Remember you can put down multiple cycles & change the styling.
FOR LINE STYLE- please use this syntax:
Solid Line = sol
Dotted Line = dot
Dashed Line = dsh
(I'll try to setup options for that in the future)
You can lay cycles into the past using the horizontal offset tool but there is a limit of setting the info back beyond 5000 bars, also, generally this process is a bit funny
The script can only put vertical lines up to 500 bars into the future. So, although cycles of 500 bars or more can be used, the future bar will not be plotted until it is within 500 bars of the current bar. In other words, doing very long-term analysis or trying to lay higher timeframe bar counts onto smaller timeframes might not work & may be a buggy process
在腳本中搜尋"Cycle"
Pi Cycle MACD Inverse OscillatorPi Cycle MACD Inverse Oscillator with Gradient and Days Since Last Top
This indicator is ideal for Bitcoin traders seeking a robust tool to visualize long-term and short-term trends with enhanced clarity and actionable insights.
This script combines the concept of the Pi Cycle indicator with a unique MACD-based inverse oscillator to analyze Bitcoin market trends. It introduces several features to help traders understand market conditions better:
Inverse Oscillator:
- Oscillator ranges between 1 and -1.
- A value of 1 indicates the two moving averages (350 MA and 111 MA) are equal.
- A value of -1 indicates the maximum observed distance between the moving averages during the selected lookback period.
- The oscillator dynamically adjusts to price changes using a configurable scaling factor.
Gradient Visualization:
The oscillator line transitions smoothly from green (closer to -1) to yellow (at 0) and red (closer to 1).
The color gradient provides a quick visual cue for market momentum.
Days Since Last Pi Cycle Top:
Calculates and displays the number of days since the last "Pi Cycle Top" (defined as a crossover between the two moving averages).
The label updates dynamically and appears only on the most recent bar.
Conditional Fill:
Highlights the area between 0 and 1 with a green gradient when the price is above the long moving average.
Enhances visual understanding of the oscillator's position relative to key thresholds.
Inputs:
- Long Moving Average (350 default): Determines the primary trend.
- Short Moving Average (111 default): Measures shorter-term momentum.
- Oscillator Lookback Period (100 default): Defines the range for normalizing the oscillator.
- Price Scaling Factor (0.01 default): Adjusts the normalization to account for large price fluctuations.
How to Use:
- Use the oscillator to identify potential reversal points and trend momentum.
- Look for transitions in the gradient color and the position relative to 0.
- Monitor the "Days Since Last Top" label for insights into the market's cycle timing.
- Utilize the conditional fill to quickly assess when the market is in a favorable position above the long moving average.
Adaptive Schaff Trend Cycle (STC) [AlgoAlpha]Introducing the Adaptive Schaff Trend Cycle by AlgoAlpha: Elevate Your Trading Strategies 🚀
Discover precision and adaptability with the Adaptive Schaff Trend Cycle 🎯, meticulously crafted for traders seeking an edge in the markets. This advanced tool integrates sophisticated algorithms to offer clear insights and real-time analytics 📈.
Key Features:
⚙️Adaptive Signal Processing: Utilizes evolving calculations to adjust to market changes, offering highly responsive signals.
🔍Enhanced MACD Analysis: Innovates on the traditional MACD, providing new insights into market dynamics through an adaptive lens.
🎨Customizable Visual Experience: Features customizable up and down colors for tailored chart analysis.
🔔Real-Time Alerts: Stay informed with instant alerts on indicator changes.
Quick Guide to Using the Adaptive STC Indicator
1. 🔧 Adding the Indicator: Search for "Adaptive Schaff Trend Cycle (STC) " within TradingView's Indicators & Strategies and apply it to your chart. Customize the settings according to your trading style for optimum results.
2.👀 Market Analysis: Monitor the STC and Histogram values closely. The indicator's color gradients provide a visual representation of momentum shifts, helping you to identify trends more clearly.
3. 🚨 Set Alerts: Enable alerts for specific conditions like significant moves up or down, or when the histogram crosses zero. This feature ensures you never miss a potential trading opportunity.
How It Works:
The Adaptive Schaff Trend Cycle by AlgoAlpha introduces a dynamic approach to market analysis, refining traditional indicators through adaptive logic to align with fluctuating market conditions. Here's a concise overview of its operation:
🔄 Adaptive MACD Adjustment: The foundation of the indicator is an enhanced MACD calculation, which dynamically adjusts its parameters based on real-time market trends and momentum. This algorithmic adjustment aims to ensure the MACD's responsiveness to market changes, adapting its sensitivity to offer timely insights .
🌟 Integration of Schaff Trend Cycle (STC): After adjusting the MACD, the indicator calculates STC values to provide a smoothed representation of market trends. By normalizing and smoothing the MACD values on a scale from 0 to 100, the STC method helps in identifying market phases with a clear visualization. The smoothing process is designed to mitigate noise and focus on significant market movements .
📊 Visualization and Alerts: To aid in the interpretation of these insights, the Adaptive Schaff Trend Cycle employs color gradients and customizable visual settings to indicate momentum shifts. These visual cues, combined with alert functionalities, are structured to assist traders in monitoring market developments, enabling them to make informed decisions based on the presented data .
🛠️The Adaptive Schaff Trend Cycle thus merges adaptive MACD adjustments with STC methodology, supported by visual and alert features, to create a tool aimed at enhancing market analysis. By focusing on adaptability and current market conditions, it provides a nuanced view of market trends, intended to support traders in their decision-making processes without promising predictive accuracy or reliability .
Pi Cycle Indicators Comparison IndicatorThere are now 3 Pi Cycle Indicators that I am aware of; the original, improved**, and bottom.
This indicator attempts to provide all three indicators in a dingle, easy to view script.
I coded this script to displace the moving averages above and below the price bars for easy viewing. This was accomplished by placing a scaling factor (/# or *#) at the end of the ta.sma or ta.ema functions.
A vertical arrow, purposely posing as a short vertical line, marks the crossing of the long and short MAs for each indicator. These are color coded to match their respective indicators and the long and short MAs are similarly color coded for easy differentiation.
The red colored MAs and arrows above the price line are the Improved Pi-Cycle Top Indicator.
The green colored MAs and arrows below the price line are the Original Pi-Cycle Top Indicator.
The blue colored MAs and arrows below the green lines and price line are the Pi-Cycle Bottom Indicator.
One last feature of the chart is the use of the location function to enable easy comparison of the crossings of each indicator to the indicator itself and to the price. This can be accomplished simply by moving the chart up and down.
**{I should note that while researching this I found that BitcoinMamo turns out to have beat me to the punch on the Improved Indicator Long.Short and Multiplier numbers. He should therefor get the credit for that}
Ichimoku Trend CycleIchimoku Trend Cycle
A precision dual-trend system combining Ichimoku-based ATR Supertrends — engineered for clarity, reliability, and smart trend detection.
🔷 What is Ichimoku Trend Cycle?
The Ichimoku Trend Cycle harnesses the power of traditional Ichimoku analysis with modern ATR-based supertrend technology:
Alpha Trend: Primary trend detection using Ichimoku conversion & baseline logic
Beta Trend: Secondary confirmation trend with independent ATR calculations
Dual Confirmation Engine : Both trends must align for signal generation
This powerful combination delivers clean, non-repainting Buy/Sell signals while filtering out market noise and false breakouts.
🔍 How It Works
Blue Alpha + Red Beta Trends Align Bullish → BUY Signal
Both Trends Turn Bearish → SELL Signal
You get ONE signal per trend change — no spam, no noise, just crystal-clear direction changes.
⚙️ Core Features
✅ Ichimoku-Enhanced Supertrends
Traditional Ichimoku conversion/baseline logic powering modern ATR bands.
✅ Dual-Trend Confirmation
Alpha and Beta trends must agree — eliminates false signals.
✅ One Alert Per Trend Shift
Clean entries, zero noise, no repeated signals.
✅ Visual Excellence
Color-coded trend lines with high-contrast BUY/SELL labels.
✅ Fully Customizable
Independent settings for both trend systems plus smoothing options.
🎯 Perfect For
Swing Traders wanting confirmed trend changes
Position Traders seeking major trend shifts
Anyone who values clean charts with sharp decision points
🛠 Settings Breakdown
Alpha Trend Settings: Primary trend with conversion/baseline periods + ATR multiplier
Beta Trend Settings: Secondary confirmation trend with independent parameters
Smoothing MA Settings: Optional MA smoothing with Bollinger Bands support
Alert Settings: Customize signal confirmation periods
Candle Color Settings: Fully customizable trend and candle color schemes
✅ Built-in Smart Alerts — Never miss a trend change again
⚡ Zero-lag Performance — Works flawlessly across all timeframes
📈 Strategy-Ready Code — Professional-grade, non-repainting signals
Transform your trading with the precision of Ichimoku and the reliability of dual-trend confirmation.
Pi Cycle | AlchimistOfCryptoPi Cycle Top Indicator - A Powerful Market Phase Detector
Developed by AlchimistOfCrypto
🧪 The Pi Cycle uses mathematical harmony to identify Bitcoin market cycle tops
with remarkable precision. Just as elements react at specific temperatures,
Bitcoin price behaves predictably when these two moving averages converge! 🧬
⚗️ The formula measures when the 111-day SMA crosses below the 350-day SMA × 2,
creating a perfect alchemical reaction that has successfully identified the
major cycle tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021.
🔬 Like the Golden Ratio in nature, this indicator reveals the hidden
mathematical structure within Bitcoin's chaotic price movements.
🧮 When the reaction occurs, prepare for molecular breakdown! 🔥
Cycle Composite 3.6 WeightedThe Cycle Composite is a multi-factor market cycle model designed to classify long-term market behavior into distinct phases using normalized and weighted data inputs.
It combines ten key on-chain, dominance, volatility, sentiment, and trend-following metrics into a single composite output. The goal is to provide a clearer understanding of where the market may stand in the broader cycle (e.g., accumulation, early bull, late bull, or euphoria).
This version (3.4) introduces flexible weighting, trend strength markers, and additional context-aware signals such as risk-on confirmations and altseason flags.
Phases Identified:
The model categorizes the market into one of five zones:
Euphoria (> 85)
Late Bull (70 – 85)
Mid Bull (50 – 70)
Early Bull (30 – 50)
Fear (< 30)
Each phase is determined by a smoothed EMA of the weighted composite score.
Data Sources and Metrics Used (10 total):
BTC Dominance (CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D)
Stablecoin Dominance (USDT + USDC average) (inverted for risk-on)
ETH Dominance (CRYPTOCAP:ETH.D)
BBWP (normalized Bollinger Band Width % over 1-year window)
WVF (Williams VIX Fix for volatility spike detection)
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, external source)
CMF (Chaikin Money Flow, smoothed volume accumulation)
CEX Open Interest (custom input from DAO / external source)
Whale Inflows (custom input from whale exchange transfer data)
Google Trends Average (BTC, Crypto, Altcoin terms)
All inputs are normalized over a 200-bar window and combined via weighted averaging, where each weight is user-configurable.
Additional Features:
Phase Labels: Labels are printed only when a new phase is entered.
Bull Continuation Marker: Triangle up when composite makes higher highs and NUPL increases.
Weakening Marker: Triangle down when composite rolls over in Late Bull and NUPL falls.
Risk-On Signal: Green circle appears when CMF and Google Trends are both rising.
Altseason Flag: Orange diamond appears when dominance of "others.d" exceeds BTC.D and ETH.D and composite is above 50.
Background Shading: Each phase is shaded with a semi-transparent background color.
Timeframe-Aware Display: All markers and signals are shown only on weekly timeframe for clarity.
Intended Use:
This script is intended for educational and macro-trend analysis purposes.
It can be used to:
Identify macro cycle position (accumulation, bull phases, euphoria, etc.)
Spot long-term trend continuation or weakening signals
Add context to price action with external on-chain and sentiment data
Time rotation events such as altseason risk
Disclaimer:
This script does not constitute financial advice.
It is intended for informational and research purposes only.
Users should conduct their own due diligence and analysis before making investment decisions.
Benner Cycle + Auto Weekly FibonacciBenner Cycle Wave
A sinusoidal wave modeled after the historic Benner Cycle theory, which suggests regular economic and market turning points.
- Auto-adjusts based on chart time
- Displays BUY/SELL signal markers at cycle peaks and troughs
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Automatically draws key Fibonacci levels (0% to 100%) using the daily high and low, helping you spot potential reversal or continuation zones.
- Fully dynamic: updates at the start of each week
- Great for intraday and swing traders looking to time pullbacks or breakouts
Why use both?
The Benner wave highlights when markets may shift. The Fibonacci levels show where price could react. Together, they give you time + price confluence — a powerful edge in trade planning.
PCTR - Pi Cycle Top Risk [Logue]Pi-cycle Top Risk (PCTR) - The PCTR indicator uses divergence of the Pi-cycle top indicator display the risk that a macro top in Bitcoin (BTC) is near. The Pi-cycle top indicator is simply the cross of the 111-day moving average above a 2x multiple of the 350-day moving average of the BTC price. While there is no fundamental reasoning behind why this works, it has worked to indicate previous bitcoin tops by taking advantage of the cyclicality of the BTC price and measurement overextension of BTC price. This indicator triggers a top signal when the fast moving average (111-day) crosses above the 2x multiple of the slow moving average (350-day).
What's interesting is the indicator can also signal a bottom when the divergence of the fast moving average is at an extreme versus the slow moving average. The indicator signals a bottom when the fast MA is 66% away from the slow MA value.
Both the top and bottom signals are clearly shown on the chart on a scale from 100 to 0.
Seasonality and Presidential cycleAn incredibly useful indicator that shows seasonality and presidential cycles by indices, stocks and industries. Just type in a ticker and trade according to seasonal patterns
Blue line - seasonality excluding presidential cycles
Green line - seasonality taking into account presidential cycles
*Seasonal patterns over the last 10 years
This indicator uses the request.seed() function.
Requests data from a GitHub repository maintained by our team and returns it as a series.
Pine Seeds is a service to import custom data and access it via TradingView.
Use TradingView as frontend and use a GitHub repository as backend.
github.com
...
Rus: Невероятно полезный индикатор, который показывает сезонность и президентские циклы по индексам, акциям и отраслям. Просто вбейте тикер и торгуйте согласно сезонным паттернам
Синяя линия - сезонность без учета президентских циклов
Зеленая линия - сезонность с учетом президентских циклов
*Сезонные паттерны за последние 10 лет
Cosmic Pi CycleAn adaptation of the Pi Cycle type indicator that
uses more accurate "pi" moving average periods
allows to adjust the numerator mult
shows cycle bottoms
shows a basis line
can be layered like in the example to create a Pi Cycle Channel
Market Cycle & Scalping entry / exitCycle indicator is an oscillator commonly used to identify market trends and provide buy and sell signals to traders. The Cyle indicator is based on the assumption that currency trends accelerate and decelerate in cyclical patterns that may reflect the dominant price cycle of any stock, during any time frame. It works best on a 1 min chart for quick scalp plays.
Weierstrass Function (Fractal Cycles)THE WEIERSTRASS FUNCTION
f(x) = ∑(n=0)^∞ a^n * cos(b^n * π * x)
The Weierstrass Function is the sum of an infinite series of cosine functions, each with increasing frequency and decreasing amplitude. This creates powerful multi-scale oscillations within the range ⬍(-2;+2), resembling a system of self-repetitive patterns. You can zoom into any part of the output and observe similar proportions, mimicking the hidden order behind the irregularity and unpredictability of financial markets.
IT DOESN’T RELY ON ANY MARKET DATA, AS THE OUTPUT IS BASED PURELY ON A MATHEMATICAL FORMULA!
This script does not provide direct buy or sell signals and should be used as a tool for analyzing the market behavior through fractal geometry. The function is often used to model complex, chaotic systems, including natural phenomena and financial markets.
APPLICATIONS:
Timing Aspect: Identifies the phases of market cycles, helping to keep awareness of frequency of turning points
Price-Modeling features: The Amplitude, frequency, and scaling settings allow the indicator to simulate the trends and oscillations. Its nowhere-differentiable nature aligns with the market's inherent uncertainty. The fractured oscillations resemble sharp jumps, noise, and dips found in volatile markets.
SETTINGS
Amplitude Factor (a): Controls the size of each wave. A higher value makes the waves larger.
Frequency Factor (b): Determines how fast the waves oscillate. A higher value creates more frequent waves.
Ability to Invert the output: Just like any cosine function it starts its journey with a decline, which is not distinctive to the behavior of most assets. The default setting is in "inverted mode".
Scale Factor: Adjusts the speed at which the oscillations grow over time.
Number of Terms (n_terms): Increases the number of waves. More terms add complexity to the pattern.
Sentimental Cycles with CrossingsThis indicator provides the following options, where you can choose to display:
DEMA TEMA cycles, filtered by default with sentiment.
Sentiment cloud, based on the 200ema area between the 1 minute and 1 hour lines.
One or both ema crossings with their respective timeframes (independent from current chart timeframe) and optional line display.
One or two tickers and their respective crossings based on selected timeframes.
Additional EMA lines supplied with their very own timeframe.
This indicator is intended to be used any way suitable to the user, nearly every aspect is customizable, and the defaults are just enough to get you started on deciding whether it's time to enter calls or puts.
TIPS for optimal results:
- Try using 2 charts: the 1 minute and the 1 hour per symbol. Under the 1 minute chart, use the 3 minute and 5 minute timeframe for crossings.
- Try to start a position when a sentimental DEMA TEMA cloud is beginning to form. The first bar usually pays thicc.
- Tickers SPY and VXX can be of good reference for market direction. If all crossings coincide, it's because there's a strong momentum in a certain direction for the market.
Blockchain Fundamentals: Liquidity Cycle MomentumLiquidity Cycle Momentum Indicator
Overview:
This indicator analyzes global liquidity trends by calculating a unique Liquidity Index and measuring its year-over-year (YoY) percentage change. It then applies a momentum oscillator to the YoY change, providing insights into the cyclical momentum of liquidity. The indicator incorporates a limited historical data workaround to ensure accurate calculations even when the chart’s history is short.
Features Breakdown:
1. Limited Historical Data Workaround
Function: The limit(length) function adjusts the lookback period when there isn’t enough historical data (i.e., near the beginning of the chart), ensuring that calculations do not break due to insufficient data.
2. Global Liquidity Calculation
Data Sources:
TVC:CN10Y (10-year yield from China)
TVC:DXY (US Dollar Index)
ECONOMICS:USCBBS (US Central Bank Balance Sheet)
FRED:JPNASSETS (Japanese assets)
ECONOMICS:CNCBBS (Chinese Central Bank Balance Sheet)
FRED:ECBASSETSW (ECB assets)
Calculation Methodology:
A ratio is computed (cn10y / dxy) to adjust for currency influences.
The Liquidity Index is then derived by multiplying this ratio with the sum of the other liquidity components.
3. Year-over-Year (YoY) Percent Change
Computation:
The indicator determines the number of bars that approximately represent one year.
It then compares the current Liquidity Index to its value one year ago, calculating the YoY percentage change.
4. Momentum Oscillator on YoY Change
Oscillator Components:
1. Calculated using the Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO) applied to the YoY percent change with a user-defined momentum length.
2. A weighted moving average (WMA) that smooths the momentum signal.
3. Overbought and Oversold zones
Signal Generation:
Buy Signal: Triggered when the momentum crosses upward from an oversold condition, suggesting a potential upward shift in liquidity momentum.
Sell Signal: Triggered when crosses below an overbought condition, indicating potential downward momentum.
State Management:
The indicator maintains a state variable to avoid repeated signals, ensuring that a new buy or sell signal is only generated when there’s a clear change in momentum.
5. Visual Presentation and Alerts
Plots:
The oscillator value and signalline are plotted for visual analysis.
Overbought and oversold levels are marked with dashed horizontal lines.
Signal Markers:
Buy and sell signals are marked with green and maroon circles, respectively.
Background Coloration:
Optionally, the chart’s background bars are colored (yellow for buy signals and fuchsia for sell signals) to enhance visual cues when signals are triggered.
Conclusion
In summary, the Liquidity Cycle Momentum Indicator provides a robust framework to analyze liquidity trends by combining global liquidity data, YoY changes, and momentum oscillation. This makes it an effective tool for traders and analysts looking to identify cyclical shifts in liquidity conditions and potential turning points in the market.
Pi Cycle Indicator Low and High
The Pi Cycle Indicator is a technical analysis tool used in finance, particularly within cryptocurrency markets, to identify potential market tops or bottoms. It is based on two moving averages: the 111-day moving average and the 350-day moving average of Bitcoin's price. The indicator suggests that when these two moving averages converge or cross each other, it may signal significant market turning points. The name "Pi Cycle" comes from the mathematical relationship between these two moving averages, roughly equivalent to the mathematical constant Pi (3.14). Traders and analysts use this indicator to gauge potential trend reversals and make informed decisions regarding their trading strategies. However, like any technical analysis tool, it should be used in conjunction with other indicators and fundamental analysis for a comprehensive understanding of market conditions.
30MIN CYCLE█ HOW DOES IT WORK?
The known 90 min cycle is used as one killzone. But actually all 18 min are relevant to search for a trade. All 18 min when a new box starts only then is the placement of an order valid. If the entry candle isn't in a box then it will probably fail. The boxes should only be used in the M1 or M5 timeframe. The best hitrate is in the M1 timeframe. Included are the last 48 "Mini-Killzones" für intraday trading and backtesting. These "Mini-Killzones" can be used with the "Liquidity Inducement Strategy".
█ WHAT MAKES IT UNIQUE?
This is the first indicator on tradingview that shows all mini-killzones for trading and backtesting a whole tradingday. The well-known killzones of ICT are from 08:00-11:00 and 14:00 - 17:00 (UTC+1) but with this indicator there is finally a refinement of the ICT Smart Money Concept killzones.
█ HOW TO USE IT?
For a proper use of this indicator we suggest to know already at least SMC or better Liquidity Indcuement Trading. This indicator is a further confluence before placing an order. After you made your setup you will have these mini-killzones as a confluence. We don't suggest to open a trade only according to this indicator.
█ ADDITIONAL INFO
This indicator is free to use for all tradingview users.
█ DISCLAIMER
This is not financial advice.
Pi CycleImplementation of Pi Cycle Top and Pi Cycle Bottom with clear visualization
Pi Circle Top is slightly modified to be closer to Pi sma 113 & sma (355) * 2)
Pi Circle Bottom is ISO sma 571 & ema 150
Script will adapt to timeframe but under hourly it might not work due to the high amount of candles to take into account.
[SM] Bitcoin cycles bull market
An indicator to determine the seasonality / cyclicality of bitcoin for long trades.
Application
- For traders: Identification of zones with lower risk of entering long positions
- For swing traders and investors: customizable calendar of entries into long position
Indicator structure
1. Vertical zones (green and red) of time ranges. Only for historical bars. The range width is adjustable in the indicator settings.
2. Table (in the form of a calendar) for determining the time of entering a trade in the future. The table is not editable. It displays the result of the configured zones on the historical bars.
General settings
- choose the color of the Tradingview theme (light or dark)
Table settings
- Turn table display on / off
- Set the number of months to be displayed in the table
Settings of vertical zones (green and red)
Each cycle (1 month summer, 1 month autumn, ...) has four dates
- start date of the green zone (day and month)
- date of the end of the green zone
- start date of the red zone
- date of the end of the red zone
Lunar Cycles Projected Forward; Moon phases into futureProjecting Lunar Cycles/ half-cycles forward in time
User sets the recent Full moon in history to anchor from; Indicator projects 1/2 cycles forward in time
//inputs//
-input number of full lunar cycles to project forward from input full moon time
-choose color/opacity/border color/text display
Quick scan for cycles🙏🏻
The followup for
As I told before, ML based algorading is all about detecting any kind of non-randomness & exploiting it (cuz allegedly u cant trade randomness), and cycles are legit patterns that can be leveraged
But bro would u really apply Fourier / Wavelets / 'whatever else heavy' on every update of thousands of datasets, esp in real time on HFT / nearly HFT data? That's why this metric. It works much faster & eats hell of a less electicity, will do initial rough filtering of time series that might contain any kind of cyclic behaviour. And then, only on these filtered datasets u gonna put Periodograms / Autocorrelograms and see what's going there for real. Better to do it 10x times less a day on 10x less datasets, right?
I ended up with 2 methods / formulas, I called em 'type 0' and 'type 1':
- type 0: takes sum of abs deviations from drift line, scales it by max abs deviation from the same drift line;
- type 1: takes sum of abs deviations from drift line, scales it by range of non-abs deviations from the same drift line.
Finnaly I've chosen type 0 , both logically (sum of abs dev divided by max abs dev makes more sense) and experimentally. About that actually, here are both formulas put on sine waves with uniform noise:
^^ generated sine wave with uniform noise
^^ both formulas on that wave
^^ both formulas on real data
As you can see type 0 is less affected by noise and shows higher values on synthetic data, but I decided to put type 1 inside as well, in case my analysis was not complete and on real data type 1 can actually be better since it has a lil higher info gain / info content (still not sure). But I can assure u that out of all other ways I've designed & tested for quite a time I tell you, these 2 are really the only ones who got there.
Now about dem thresholds and how to use it.
Both type 0 and type 1 can be modelled with Beta distribution, and based on it and on some obvious & tho non mainstream statistical modelling techniques, I got these thresholds, so these are not optimized overfitted values, but natural ones. Each type has 3 thresholds (from lowest to highest):
- typical value (turned off by default). aka basis ;
- typical deviation from typical value, aka deviation ;
- maximum modelled deviation from typical value (idk whow to call it properly for now, this is my own R&D), aka extension .
So when the metric is above one of these thresholds (which one is up to you, you'll read about it in a sec), it means that there might be a strong enough periodic signal inside the data, and the data got to be put through proper spectral analysis tools to confirm / deny it.
If you look at the pictures above again, you'll see gray signal, that's uniform noise. Take a look at it and see where does it sit comparing to the thresholds. Now you just undertand that picking up a threshold is all about the amount of false positives you care to withstand.
If you take basis as threshold, you'll get tons of false positives (that's why it's even turned off by default), but you'll almost never miss a true positive. If you take deviation as threshold, it's gonna be kinda balanced approach. If you take extension as threshold, you gonna miss some cycles, and gonna get only the strongest ones.
More true positives -> more false positives, less false positives -> less true positives, can't go around that mane
Just to be clear again, I am not completely sure yet, but I def lean towards type 0 as metric, and deviation as threshold.
Live Long and Prosper
P.S.: That was actually the main R&D of the last month, that script I've released earlier came out as derivative.
P.S.: These 2 are the first R&Ds made completely in " art-space", St. Petersburg. Come and see me, say wassup🤘🏻
Sacred: Cycles"Cycles offer freedom to those who see them, and fate to those who don't."
Following liquidity cycles is one of the most useful tools of making in financial markets. Over the longer term, it helps you get in at the beginning of plenty and out before the droughts. This script aims to simplify that for the average trader by displaying tree types of information:
Currents
More often than you might imagine, prices are interacting with moving averages across various timeframes. Zoom in or out enough and you'll probably find a moving average that intersects any given price turn/pause. But how to find them? It turns out if you take a fractal approach and scale up or down common time periods, you can generate surprisingly useful support and resistance levels you wouldn't otherwise plot. I call these moving averages "currents". By changing time intervals, you'll be able to find which current is affecting your charts price. (Note: Only works with tickers that have volume data.)
Financial Conditions
Proper technical analysis will give you an idea of which price levels are important and when a pattern is likely to resolve. But how to decide which direction you should bet on? That's where liquidity comes into play. For those tickers that are sensitive to broader liquidity conditions, these markers will tell you if you're in a bearish or bullish regime. After a bearish marker, it's time to sell rips. In a bearish one, buy the dip.
Recessions
Waiting for recessions to be announced by the NBER is a waste of time. You need to know today if recessionary conditions exist. That's where following coincident growth indicators instead of lagging ones helps. This script adds a red background to indicate weakening US growth.
