Key Levels (Daily Percentages)OVERVIEW
This indicator automatically identifies and progressively draws daily percentage levels, normalized to the first market bar.
Percentages are one of the most common ways to measure price movement (outside price itself). Being able to visually reference these levels helps contextualize price action, in addition to giving us a glimpse into how algos might "see" the market.
This script is most useful on charts with smaller time frames (1 to 5 minutes). This is not ideal for medium or larger time frames (greater than 5 minutes).
INPUTS
You can configure:
• Line size, style, colors and maximum length
• Label colors and visibility
• Fractional and intra level visibility
• Bidirectional zone parameters (custom range and extended anomalies)
• Normalization source
• Price Proximity features
• Market Hours and Time Zone
INSPIRATION
Broad Assumptions:
• +/- 70% of days move 1%, 20% of days move 1-2%, and 10% of days have moves exceeding 2%.
• +/- 10-20% of days trend, with moves ≥ 1%.
• All trading strategies are effectively scalping, mean reversion, or trend.
• Humans program algos to capitalize on these assumptions, using percentages to mange / execute trades.
Search in scripts for "algo"
Candles In Row (Expo)█ Overview
The Candles In Row (Expo) indicator is a powerful tool designed to track and visualize sequences of consecutive candlesticks in a price chart. Whether you're looking to gauge momentum or determine the prevailing trend, this indicator offers versatile functionality tailored to the needs of active traders. The Candles In Row indicator can be an integral part of a multi-timeframe trading strategy, allowing traders to understand market momentum, and set trading bias. By recognizing the patterns and likelihood of future price movements, traders can make more informed decisions and align their trades with the overall market direction.
█ How to use
The indicator enhances traders' understanding of the consecutive candle patterns, helping them to uncover trends and momentum. Consecutive candles in the same direction may indicate a strong trend. The Candles In Row indicator can be an essential tool for traders employing a multiple timeframes strategy.
Analyzing a Higher Timeframe:
Understanding Momentum: By analyzing consecutive green or red candles in a higher timeframe, traders can identify the prevailing momentum in the market. A series of green candles would suggest an upward trend, while a series of red candles would indicate a downward trend.
Predicting Next Candle: The indicator's predictive feature calculates the likelihood of the next candle being green or red based on historical patterns. This probability helps traders gauge the potential continuation of the trend.
Setting the Trading Bias: If the likelihood of the next candle being green is high, the trader may decide to focus on long (buy) opportunities. Conversely, if the likelihood of the next candle being red is high, the trader may look for short (sell) opportunities.
In this example, we are using the Heikin Ashi candles.
Moving to a Lower Timeframe:
Finding Entry Points: Once the trading bias is set based on the higher timeframe analysis, traders can switch to a lower timeframe to look for entry points in the direction of the bias. For example, if the higher timeframe suggests a high likelihood of a green candle, traders may look for buy opportunities in the lower timeframe.
Combining Timeframes for a Comprehensive Strategy:
Confirmation and Alignment: By analyzing the higher timeframe and confirming the direction in the lower timeframe, traders can ensure that they are trading in alignment with the broader trend.
Avoiding False Signals: By using a higher timeframe to set the trading bias and a lower timeframe to find entries, traders can avoid false signals and whipsaws that might be present in a single timeframe analysis.
█ Settings
Price Input Selection: Choose between regular open and close prices or Heikin Ashi candles as the basis for calculation.
Data Window Control: Decide between displaying the full data window or only the active data. You can also enable a counter that keeps track of the number of candles.
Alert Configuration: Set the desired number and color of consecutive candles that must occur in a row to trigger an alert.
Table Display Customization: Customize the location and size of the display table according to your preferences.
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Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
Wick-to-Body Ratio Trend Forecast | Flux ChartsThe Wick-to-Body Ratio Trend Forecast Indicator aims to forecast potential movements following the last closed candle using the wick-to-body ratio. The script identifies those candles within the loopback period with a ratio matching that of the last closed candle and provides an analysis of their trends.
➡️ USAGE
Wick-to-body ratios can be used in many strategies. The most common use in stock trading is to discern bullish or bearish sentiment. This indicator extends candle ratios, revealing previous patterns that follow a candle with a similar ratio. The most basic use of this indicator is the single forecast line.
➡️ FORECASTING SYSTEM
This line displays a compilation of the averages of all the previous trends resulting from those historical candles with a matching ratio. It shows the average movements of the trends as well as the 'strength' of the trend. The 'strength' of the trend is a gradient that is blue when the trend deviates more from the average and red when it deviates less.
Chart: AMEX:SPY 30 min; Indicator Settings: Loopback 700, Previous Trends ON
The color-coded deviation is visible in this image of the indicator with the default settings (except for Forecast Lines > Previous Trends ), and the trend line grows bluer as the past patterns deviate more.
➡️ ADAPTIVE ACCEPTABLE RANGE
The algorithm looks back at every candle within the loopback period to find candles that match the last closed candle. The algorithm adaptively changes the acceptable range to which a candle can differ from the ratio of the last closed candle. The algorithm will never have more than 15 historical points used, as it will lower its sensitivity before it reaches that point.
Chart: BITSTAMP:BTCUSD 5 min; Indicator Settings: Loopback 700
Here is the BTC chart on 7/6/23 with default settings except for the loopback period at 700.
Chart: BITSTAMP:BTCUSD 5 min; Indicator Settings: Loopback 200
Here is the exact same chart with a loopback period of 200. While the first ratio for both is the same, a new ratio is revealed for the chart with a loopback of only 200 because the adaptive range is adjusted in the algorithm to find an acceptable number of reference points. Note the table in the top right however, while the algorithm adapts the acceptable range between the current ratio and historical ones to find reference points, there is a threshold at which candles will be considered too inaccurate to be considered. This prevents meaningless associations between candles due to a particularly rare ratio. This threshold can be adjusted in the settings through "Default Accuracy".
Relative Trend Index (RTI) by Zeiierman█ Overview
The Relative Trend Index (RTI) developed by Zeiierman is an innovative technical analysis tool designed to measure the strength and direction of the market trend. Unlike some traditional indicators, the RTI boasts a distinctive ability to adapt and respond to market volatility, while still minimizing the effects of minor, short-term market fluctuations.
The Relative Trend Index blends trend-following and mean-reverting characteristics, paired with a customizable and intuitive approach to trend strength, and its sensitivity to price action makes this indicator stand out.
█ Benefits of using this RTI instead of RSI
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Relative Trend Index (RTI) are both powerful technical indicators, each with its own unique strengths.
However, there are key differences that make the RTI arguably more sophisticated and precise, especially when it comes to identifying trends and overbought/oversold (OB/OS) areas.
The RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements and is typically used to identify overbought and oversold conditions in a market. However, its primary limitation lies in its tendency to produce false signals during extended trending periods.
On the other hand, the RTI is designed specifically to identify and adapt to market trends. Instead of solely focusing on price changes, the RTI measures the relative positioning of the current closing price within its recent range, providing a more comprehensive view of market conditions.
The RTI's adaptable nature is particularly valuable. The user-adjustable sensitivity percentage allows traders to fine-tune the indicator's responsiveness, making it more resilient to sudden market fluctuations and noise that could otherwise produce false signals. This feature is advantageous in various market conditions, from trending to choppy and sideways-moving markets.
Furthermore, the RTI's unique method of defining OB/OS zones takes into account the prevailing trend, which can provide a more precise reflection of the market's condition.
While the RSI is an invaluable tool in many traders' toolkits, the RTI's unique approach to trend identification, adaptability, and enhanced definition of OB/OS zones can provide traders with a more nuanced understanding of market conditions and potential trading opportunities. This makes the RTI an especially powerful tool for those seeking to ride long-term trends and avoid false signals.
█ Calculations
In summary, while simple enough, the math behind the RTI indicator is quite powerful. It combines the quantification of price volatility with the flexibility to adjust the trend sensitivity. It provides a normalized output that can be interpreted consistently across various trading scenarios.
The math behind the Relative Trend Index (RTI) indicator is rooted in some fundamental statistical concepts: Standard Deviation and Percentiles.
Standard Deviation: The Standard Deviation is a measure of dispersion or variability in a dataset. It quantifies the degree to which each data point deviates from the mean (or average) of the data set. In this script, the standard deviation is computed on the 'close' prices over a specified number of periods. This provides a measure of the volatility in the price over that period. The higher the standard deviation, the more volatile the price has been.
Percentiles: The percentile is a measure used in statistics indicating the value below which a given percentage of observations in a group falls. After calculating the upper and lower trends for the last 'length' periods and sorting these values, the script uses the 'Sensitivity ' parameter to extract percentiles from these sorted arrays. This is a powerful concept because it allows us to adjust the sensitivity of our signals. By choosing different percentiles (controlled through the 'Sensitivity' parameter), we can decide whether we want to react only to extreme events (high percentiles) or be more reactive and consider smaller deviations from the norm as significant (lower percentiles).
Finally, the script calculates the Relative Trend Index value, which is essentially a normalized measure indicating where the current price falls between the upper and lower trend values. This simple ratio is incredibly powerful as it provides a standardized measure that can be used across different securities and market conditions to identify potential trading signals.
Core Components
Trend Data Count: This parameter denotes the number of data points used in the RTI's calculation, determining the trend length. A higher count captures a more extended market view (long-term trend), providing smoother results that are more resistant to sudden market changes. In contrast, a lower count focuses on more recent data (short-term trend), yielding faster responses to market changes, albeit at the cost of increased susceptibility to market noise.
Trend Sensitivity Percentage: This parameter is employed to select the indices within the trend arrays used for upper and lower trend definitions. By adjusting this value, users can affect the sensitivity of the trend, with higher percentages leading to a less sensitive trend.
█ How to use
The RTI plots a line that revolves around a mid-point of 50. When the RTI is above 50, it implies that the market trend is bullish (upward), and when it's below 50, it indicates a bearish (downward) trend. Furthermore, the farther the RTI deviates from the 50 line, the stronger the trend is perceived to be.
Bullish
Bearish
The RTI includes user-defined Overbought and Oversold levels. These thresholds suggest potential trading opportunities when they are crossed, serving as a cue for traders to possibly buy or sell. This gives the RTI an additional use case as a mean-reversion tool, in addition to being a trend-following indicator.
In short
Trend Confirmation and Reversals: If the percentage trend value is consistently closer to the upper level, it can indicate a strong uptrend. Similarly, if it's closer to the lower level, a downtrend may be in play. If the percentage trend line begins to move away from one trend line towards the other, it could suggest a potential trend reversal.
Identifying Overbought and Oversold Conditions: When the percentage trend value reaches the upper trend line (signified by a value of 1), it suggests an overbought condition - i.e., the price has been pushed up, perhaps too far, and could be due for a pullback, or indicating a strong positive trend. Conversely, when the percentage trend value hits the lower trend line (a value of 0), it indicates an oversold condition - the price may have been driven down and could be set to rebound, or indicate a strong negative trend. Traders often use these overbought and oversold signals as contrarian indicators, considering them potential signs to sell (in overbought conditions) or buy (in oversold conditions). If the RTI line remains overbought or oversold for an extended period, it indicates a strong trend in that direction.
█ Settings
One key feature of the RTI is its configurability. It allows users to set the trend data length and trend sensitivity.
The trend data length represents the number of data points used in the trend calculation. A longer trend data length will reflect a more long-term trend, whereas a shorter trend data length will capture short-term movements.
Trend sensitivity refers to the threshold for determining what constitutes a significant trend. High sensitivity levels will deem fewer price movements as significant, hence making the trend less sensitive. Conversely, low sensitivity levels will deem more price movements as significant, hence making the trend more sensitive.
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Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
Machine Learning : Torben's Moving Median KNN BandsWhat is Median Filtering ?
Median filtering is a non-linear digital filtering technique, often used to remove noise from an image or signal. Such noise reduction is a typical pre-processing step to improve the results of later processing (for example, edge detection on an image). Median filtering is very widely used in digital image processing because, under certain conditions, it preserves edges while removing noise (but see the discussion below), also having applications in signal processing.
The main idea of the median filter is to run through the signal entry by entry, replacing each entry with the median of neighboring entries. The pattern of neighbors is called the "window", which slides, entry by entry, over the entire signal. For one-dimensional signals, the most obvious window is just the first few preceding and following entries, whereas for two-dimensional (or higher-dimensional) data the window must include all entries within a given radius or ellipsoidal region (i.e. the median filter is not a separable filter).
The median filter works by taking the median of all the pixels in a neighborhood around the current pixel. The median is the middle value in a sorted list of numbers. This means that the median filter is not sensitive to the order of the pixels in the neighborhood, and it is not affected by outliers (very high or very low values).
The median filter is a very effective way to remove noise from images. It can remove both salt and pepper noise (random white and black pixels) and Gaussian noise (randomly distributed pixels with a Gaussian distribution). The median filter is also very good at preserving edges, which is why it is often used as a pre-processing step for edge detection.
However, the median filter can also blur images. This is because the median filter replaces each pixel with the value of the median of its neighbors. This can cause the edges of objects in the image to be smoothed out. The amount of blurring depends on the size of the window used by the median filter. A larger window will blur more than a smaller window.
The median filter is a very versatile tool that can be used for a variety of tasks in image processing. It is a good choice for removing noise and preserving edges, but it can also blur images. The best way to use the median filter is to experiment with different window sizes to find the setting that produces the desired results.
What is this Indicator ?
K-nearest neighbors (KNN) is a simple, non-parametric machine learning algorithm that can be used for both classification and regression tasks. The basic idea behind KNN is to find the K most similar data points to a new data point and then use the labels of those K data points to predict the label of the new data point.
Torben's moving median is a variation of the median filter that is used to remove noise from images. The median filter works by replacing each pixel in an image with the median of its neighbors. Torben's moving median works in a similar way, but it also averages the values of the neighbors. This helps to reduce the amount of blurring that can occur with the median filter.
KNN over Torben's moving median is a hybrid algorithm that combines the strengths of both KNN and Torben's moving median. KNN is able to learn the underlying distribution of the data, while Torben's moving median is able to remove noise from the data. This combination can lead to better performance than either algorithm on its own.
To implement KNN over Torben's moving median, we first need to choose a value for K. The value of K controls how many neighbors are used to predict the label of a new data point. A larger value of K will make the algorithm more robust to noise, but it will also make the algorithm less sensitive to local variations in the data.
Once we have chosen a value for K, we need to train the algorithm on a dataset of labeled data points. The training dataset will be used to learn the underlying distribution of the data.
Once the algorithm is trained, we can use it to predict the labels of new data points. To do this, we first need to find the K most similar data points to the new data point. We can then use the labels of those K data points to predict the label of the new data point.
KNN over Torben's moving median is a simple, yet powerful algorithm that can be used for a variety of tasks. It is particularly well-suited for tasks where the data is noisy or where the underlying distribution of the data is unknown.
Here are some of the advantages of using KNN over Torben's moving median:
KNN is able to learn the underlying distribution of the data.
KNN is robust to noise.
KNN is not sensitive to local variations in the data.
Here are some of the disadvantages of using KNN over Torben's moving median:
KNN can be computationally expensive for large datasets.
KNN can be sensitive to the choice of K.
KNN can be slow to train.
Market Time Cycle (Expo)█ Time Cycles Overview
Time cycles are a fascinating and powerful concept in the world of trading and investing. They are all about understanding and predicting the timing of market moves based on the premise that market events and price movements are not random, but instead occur in repeatable, cyclical patterns.
The Concept of Time Cycles: The foundation of time cycles lies in the belief that historical market patterns tend to repeat themselves over specific periods. These periods or cycles could be influenced by a myriad of factors like economic data releases, earnings reports, geopolitical events, or even natural human behavior. For example, some traders observe increased market activity around the start and end of a trading day, which is a form of intraday time cycle.
Understanding time cycles can provide traders with a roadmap, helping them anticipate potential trend shifts and make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell.
█ Indicator Overview
The Market Time Cycle (Expo) is designed to help traders track and analyze market cycles and generate signals for potential trading opportunities. It uses mathematical techniques to analyze market cycles and detect possible turning points. It does this by projecting the estimated cycle timeline and providing visual indications of cyclical phases through the use of color-coded lines and sine wave cycles.
Time cycles offer a compelling way to forecast market trends and time your trades better. By adding time cycles to your trading toolbox, you could potentially gain a new perspective on market movements and refine your trading strategy further. The indicator generates trading signals based on the sine wave's behavior. When the sine wave crosses certain thresholds, the indicator generates a signal suggesting a potential trading opportunity based on cycle behavior.
█ How to use
This indicator can be a valuable tool to help traders understand and predict market trends and time their trades more accurately. By visualizing the cyclic nature of markets, traders can better anticipate potential turning points and adjust their trading strategies accordingly. It helps traders to spot ideal entry and exit points based on the cyclical nature of financial markets.
█ Settings
You can customize the number of bars (NumbOfBars) that are taken into consideration for the cycle. Including a higher number of bars will provide more data, which can be helpful for analyzing long-term trends.
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Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
Machine Learning : Cosine Similarity & Euclidean DistanceIntroduction:
This script implements a comprehensive trading strategy that adheres to the established rules and guidelines of housing trading. It leverages advanced machine learning techniques and incorporates customised moving averages, including the Conceptive Price Moving Average (CPMA), to provide accurate signals for informed trading decisions in the housing market. Additionally, signal processing techniques such as Lorentzian, Euclidean distance, Cosine similarity, Know sure thing, Rational Quadratic, and sigmoid transformation are utilised to enhance the signal quality and improve trading accuracy.
Features:
Market Analysis: The script utilizes advanced machine learning methods such as Lorentzian, Euclidean distance, and Cosine similarity to analyse market conditions. These techniques measure the similarity and distance between data points, enabling more precise signal identification and enhancing trading decisions.
Cosine similarity:
Cosine similarity is a measure used to determine the similarity between two vectors, typically in a high-dimensional space. It calculates the cosine of the angle between the vectors, indicating the degree of similarity or dissimilarity.
In the context of trading or signal processing, cosine similarity can be employed to compare the similarity between different data points or signals. The vectors in this case represent the numerical representations of the data points or signals.
Cosine similarity ranges from -1 to 1, with 1 indicating perfect similarity, 0 indicating no similarity, and -1 indicating perfect dissimilarity. A higher cosine similarity value suggests a closer match between the vectors, implying that the signals or data points share similar characteristics.
Lorentzian Classification:
Lorentzian classification is a machine learning algorithm used for classification tasks. It is based on the Lorentzian distance metric, which measures the similarity or dissimilarity between two data points. The Lorentzian distance takes into account the shape of the data distribution and can handle outliers better than other distance metrics.
Euclidean Distance:
Euclidean distance is a distance metric widely used in mathematics and machine learning. It calculates the straight-line distance between two points in Euclidean space. In two-dimensional space, the Euclidean distance between two points (x1, y1) and (x2, y2) is calculated using the formula sqrt((x2 - x1)^2 + (y2 - y1)^2).
Dynamic Time Windows: The script incorporates a dynamic time window function that allows users to define specific time ranges for trading. It checks if the current time falls within the specified window to execute the relevant trading signals.
Custom Moving Averages: The script includes the CPMA, a powerful moving average calculation. Unlike traditional moving averages, the CPMA provides improved support and resistance levels by considering multiple price types and employing a combination of Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Its adaptive nature ensures responsiveness to changes in price trends.
Signal Processing Techniques: The script applies signal processing techniques such as Know sure thing, Rational Quadratic, and sigmoid transformation to enhance the quality of the generated signals. These techniques improve the accuracy and reliability of the trading signals, aiding in making well-informed trading decisions.
Trade Statistics and Metrics: The script provides comprehensive trade statistics and metrics, including total wins, losses, win rate, win-loss ratio, and early signal flips. These metrics offer valuable insights into the performance and effectiveness of the trading strategy.
Usage:
Configuring Time Windows: Users can customize the time windows by specifying the start and finish time ranges according to their trading preferences and local market conditions.
Signal Interpretation: The script generates long and short signals based on the analysis, custom moving averages, and signal processing techniques. Users should pay attention to these signals and take appropriate action, such as entering or exiting trades, depending on their trading strategies.
Trade Statistics: The script continuously tracks and updates trade statistics, providing users with a clear overview of their trading performance. These statistics help users assess the effectiveness of the strategy and make informed decisions.
Conclusion:
With its adherence to housing trading rules, advanced machine learning methods, customized moving averages like the CPMA, and signal processing techniques such as Lorentzian, Euclidean distance, Cosine similarity, Know sure thing, Rational Quadratic, and sigmoid transformation, this script offers users a powerful tool for housing market analysis and trading. By leveraging the provided signals, time windows, and trade statistics, users can enhance their trading strategies and improve their overall trading performance.
Disclaimer:
Please note that while this script incorporates established tradingview housing rules, advanced machine learning techniques, customized moving averages, and signal processing techniques, it should be used for informational purposes only. Users are advised to conduct their own analysis and exercise caution when making trading decisions. The script's performance may vary based on market conditions, user settings, and the accuracy of the machine learning methods and signal processing techniques. The trading platform and developers are not responsible for any financial losses incurred while using this script.
By publishing this script on the platform, traders can benefit from its professional presentation, clear instructions, and the utilisation of advanced machine learning techniques, customised moving averages, and signal processing techniques for enhanced trading signals and accuracy.
I extend my gratitude to TradingView, LUX ALGO, and JDEHORTY for their invaluable contributions to the trading community. Their innovative scripts, meticulous coding patterns, and insightful ideas have profoundly enriched traders' strategies, including my own.
ICT Donchian Smart Money Structure (Expo)█ Concept Overview
The Inner Circle Trader (ICT) methodology is focused on understanding the actions and implications of the so-called "smart money" - large institutions and professional traders who often influence market movements. Key to this is the concept of market structure and how it can provide insights into potential price moves.
Over time, however, there has been a notable shift in how some traders interpret and apply this methodology. Initially, it was designed with a focus on the fractal nature of markets. Fractals are recurring patterns in price action that are self-similar across different time scales, providing a nuanced and dynamic understanding of market structure.
However, as the ICT methodology has grown in popularity, there has been a drift away from this fractal-based perspective. Instead, many traders have started to focus more on pivot points as their primary tool for understanding market structure.
Pivot points provide static levels of potential support and resistance. While they can be useful in some contexts, relying heavily on them could provide a skewed perspective of market structure. They offer a static, backward-looking view that may not accurately reflect real-time changes in market sentiment or the dynamic nature of markets.
This shift from a fractal-based perspective to a pivot point perspective has significant implications. It can lead traders to misinterpret market structure and potentially make incorrect trading decisions.
To highlight this issue, you've developed a Donchian Structure indicator that mirrors the use of pivot points. The Donchian Channels are formed by the highest high and the lowest low over a certain period, providing another representation of potential market extremes. The fact that the Donchian Structure indicator produces the same results as pivot points underscores the inherent limitations of relying too heavily on these tools.
While the Donchian Structure indicator or pivot points can be useful tools, they should not replace the original, fractal-based perspective of the ICT methodology. These tools can provide a broad overview of market structure but may not capture the intricate dynamics and real-time changes that a fractal-based approach can offer.
It's essential for traders to understand these differences and to apply these tools correctly within the broader context of the ICT methodology and the Smart Money Concept Structure. A well-rounded approach that incorporates fractals, along with other tools and forms of analysis, is likely to provide a more accurate and comprehensive understanding of market structure.
█ Smart Money Concept - Misunderstandings
The Smart Money Concept is a popular concept among traders, and it's based on the idea that the "smart money" - typically large institutional investors, market makers, and professional traders - have superior knowledge or information, and their actions can provide valuable insight for other traders.
One of the biggest misunderstandings with this concept is the belief that tracking smart money activity can guarantee profitable trading.
█ Here are a few common misconceptions:
Following Smart Money Equals Guaranteed Success: Many traders believe that if they can follow the smart money, they will be successful. However, tracking the activity of large institutional investors and other professionals isn't easy, as they use complex strategies, have access to information not available to the public, and often intentionally hide their moves to prevent others from detecting their strategies.
Instantaneous Reaction and Results: Another misconception is that market movements will reflect smart money actions immediately. However, large institutions often slowly accumulate or distribute positions over time to avoid moving the market drastically. As a result, their actions might not produce an immediate noticeable effect on the market.
Smart Money Always Wins: It's not accurate to assume that smart money always makes the right decisions. Even the most experienced institutional investors and professional traders make mistakes, misjudge market conditions, or are affected by unpredictable events.
Smart Money Activity is Transparent: Understanding what constitutes smart money activity can be quite challenging. There are many indicators and metrics that traders use to try and track smart money, such as the COT (Commitments of Traders) reports, Level II market data, block trades, etc. However, these can be difficult to interpret correctly and are often misleading.
Assuming Uniformity Among Smart Money: 'Smart Money' is not a monolithic entity. Different institutional investors and professional traders have different strategies, risk tolerances, and investment horizons. What might be a good trade for a long-term institutional investor might not be a good trade for a short-term professional trader, and vice versa.
█ Market Structure
The Smart Money Concept Structure deals with the interpretation of price action that forms the market structure, focusing on understanding key shifts or changes in the market that may indicate where 'smart money' (large institutional investors and professional traders) might be moving in the market.
█ Three common concepts in this regard are Change of Character (CHoCH), and Shift in Market Structure (SMS), Break of Structure (BMS/BoS).
Change of Character (CHoCH): This refers to a noticeable change in the behavior of price movement, which could suggest that a shift in the market might be about to occur. This might be signaled by a sudden increase in volatility, a break of a trendline, or a change in volume, among other things.
Shift in Market Structure (SMS): This is when the overall structure of the market changes, suggesting a potential new trend. It usually involves a sequence of lower highs and lower lows for a downtrend, or higher highs and higher lows for an uptrend.
Break of Structure (BMS/BoS): This is when a previously defined trend or pattern in the price structure is broken, which may suggest a trend continuation.
A key component of this approach is the use of fractals, which are repeating patterns in price action that can give insights into potential market reversals. They appear at all scales of a price chart, reflecting the self-similar nature of markets.
█ Market Structure - Misunderstandings
One of the biggest misunderstandings about the ICT approach is the over-reliance or incorrect application of pivot points. Pivot points are a popular tool among traders due to their simplicity and easy-to-understand nature. However, when it comes to the Smart Money Concept and trying to follow the steps of professional traders or large institutions, relying heavily on pivot points can create misconceptions and lead to confusion. Here's why:
Delayed and Static Information: Pivot points are inherently backward-looking because they're calculated based on the previous period's data. As such, they may not reflect real-time market dynamics or sudden changes in market sentiment. Furthermore, they present a static view of market structure, delineating pre-defined levels of support and resistance. This static nature can be misleading because markets are fundamentally dynamic and constantly changing due to countless variables.
Inadequate Representation of Market Complexity: Markets are influenced by a myriad of factors, including economic indicators, geopolitical events, institutional actions, and market sentiment, among others. Relying on pivot points alone for reading market structure oversimplifies this complexity and can lead to a myopic understanding of market dynamics.
False Signals and Misinterpretations: Pivot points can often give false signals, especially in volatile markets. Prices might react to these levels temporarily but then continue in the original direction, leading to potential misinterpretation of market structure and sentiment. Also, a trader might wrongly perceive a break of a pivot point as a significant market event, when in fact, it could be due to random price fluctuations or temporary volatility.
Over-simplification: Viewing market structure only through the lens of pivot points simplifies the market to static levels of support and resistance, which can lead to misinterpretation of market dynamics. For instance, a trader might view a break of a pivot point as a definite sign of a trend, when it could just be a temporary price spike.
Ignoring the Fractal Nature of Markets: In the context of the Smart Money Concept Structure, understanding the fractal nature of markets is crucial. Fractals are self-similar patterns that repeat at all scales and provide a more dynamic and nuanced understanding of market structure. They can help traders identify shifts in market sentiment or direction in real-time, providing more relevant and timely information compared to pivot points.
The key takeaway here is not that pivot points should be entirely avoided or that they're useless. They can provide valuable insights and serve as a useful tool in a trader's toolbox when used correctly. However, they should not be the sole or primary method for understanding the market structure, especially in the context of the Smart Money Concept Structure.
█ Fractals
Instead, traders should aim for a comprehensive understanding of markets that incorporates a range of tools and concepts, including but not limited to fractals, order flow, volume analysis, fundamental analysis, and, yes, even pivot points. Fractals offer a more dynamic and nuanced view of the market. They reflect the recursive nature of markets and can provide valuable insights into potential market reversals. Because they appear at all scales of a price chart, they can provide a more holistic and real-time understanding of market structure.
In contrast, the Smart Money Concept Structure, focusing on fractals and comprehensive market analysis, aims to capture a more holistic and real-time view of the market. Fractals, being self-similar patterns that repeat at different scales, offer a dynamic understanding of market structure. As a result, they can help to identify shifts in market sentiment or direction as they happen, providing a more detailed and timely perspective.
Furthermore, a comprehensive market analysis would consider a broader set of factors, including order flow, volume analysis, and fundamental analysis, which could provide additional insights into 'smart money' actions.
█ Donchian Structure
Donchian Channels are a type of indicator used in technical analysis to identify potential price breakouts and trends, and they may also serve as a tool for understanding market structure. The channels are formed by taking the highest high and the lowest low over a certain number of periods, creating an envelope of price action.
Donchian Channels (or pivot points) can be useful tools for providing a general view of market structure, and they may not capture the intricate dynamics associated with the Smart Money Concept Structure. A more nuanced approach, centered on real-time fractals and a comprehensive analysis of various market factors, offers a more accurate understanding of 'smart money' actions and market structure.
█ Here is why Donchian Structure may be misleading:
Lack of Nuance: Donchian Channels, like pivot points, provide a simplified view of market structure. They don't take into account the nuanced behaviors of price action or the complex dynamics between buyers and sellers that can be critical in the Smart Money Concept Structure.
Limited Insights into 'Smart Money' Actions: While Donchian Channels can highlight potential breakout points and trends, they don't necessarily provide insights into the actions of 'smart money'. These large institutional traders often use sophisticated strategies that can't be easily inferred from price action alone.
█ Indicator Overview
We have built this Donchian Structure indicator to show that it returns the same results as using pivot points. The Donchian Structure indicator can be a useful tool for market analysis. However, it should not be seen as a direct replacement or equivalent to the original Smart Money concept, nor should any indicator based on pivot points. The indicator highlights the importance of understanding what kind of trading tools we use and how they can affect our decisions.
The Donchian Structure Indicator displays CHoCH, SMS, BoS/BMS, as well as premium and discount areas. This indicator plots everything in real-time and allows for easy backtesting on any market and timeframe. A unique candle coloring has been added to make it more engaging and visually appealing when identifying new trading setups and strategies. This candle coloring is "leading," meaning it can signal a structural change before it actually happens, giving traders ample time to plan their next trade accordingly.
█ How to use
The indicator is great for traders who want to simplify their view on the market structure and easily backtest Smart Money Concept Strategies. The added candle coloring function serves as a heads-up for structure change or can be used as trend confirmation. This new candle coloring feature can generate many new Smart Money Concepts strategies.
█ Features
Market Structure
The market structure is based on the Donchian channel, to which we have added what we call 'Structure Response'. This addition makes the indicator more useful, especially in trending markets. The core concept involves traders buying at a discount and selling or shorting at a premium, depending on the order flow. Structure response enables traders to determine the order flow more clearly. Consequently, more trading opportunities will appear in trending markets.
Structure Candles
Structure Candles highlight the current order flow and are significantly more responsive to structural changes. They can provide traders with a heads-up before a break in structure occurs
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Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
Price Action Color Forecast (Expo)█ Overview
The Price Action Color Forecast Indicator , is an innovative trading tool that uses the power of historical price action and candlestick patterns to predict potential future market movements. By analyzing the colors of the candlesticks and identifying specific price action events, this indicator provides traders with valuable insights into future market behavior based on past performance.
█ Calculations
The Price Action Color Forecast Indicator systematically analyzes historical price action events based on the colors of the candlesticks. Upon identifying a current price action coloring event, the indicator searches through its past data to find similar patterns that have happened before. By examining these past events and their outcomes, the indicator projects potential future price movements, offering traders valuable insights into how the market might react to the current price action event.
The indicator prioritizes the analysis of the most recent candlesticks before methodically progressing toward earlier data. This approach ensures that the generated candle forecast is based on the latest market dynamics.
The core functionality of the Price Action Color Forecast Indicator:
Analyzing historical price action events based on the colors of the candlesticks.
Identifying similar events from the past that correspond to the current price action coloring event.
Projecting potential future price action based on the outcomes of past similar events.
█ Example
In this example, we can see that the current price action pattern matches with a similar historical price action pattern that shares the same characteristics regarding candle coloring. The historical outcome is then projected into the future. This helps traders to understand how the past pattern evolved over time.
█ How to use
The indicator provides traders with valuable insights into how the market might react to the current price action event by examining similar historical patterns and projecting potential future price movements.
█ Settings
Candle series
The candle lookback length refers to the number of bars, starting from the current one, that will be examined in order to find a similar event in the past.
Forecast Candles
Number of candles to project into the future.
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Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
SuperBollingerTrend (Expo)█ Overview
The SuperBollingerTrend indicator is a combination of two popular technical analysis tools, Bollinger Bands, and SuperTrend. By fusing these two indicators, SuperBollingerTrend aims to provide traders with a more comprehensive view of the market, accounting for both volatility and trend direction. By combining trend identification with volatility analysis, the SuperBollingerTrend indicator provides traders with valuable insights into potential trend changes. It recognizes that high volatility levels often accompany stronger price momentum, which can result in the formation of new trends or the continuation of existing ones.
█ How Volatility Impacts Trends
Volatility can impact trends by expanding or contracting them, triggering trend reversals, leading to breakouts, and influencing risk management decisions. Traders need to analyze and monitor volatility levels in conjunction with trend analysis to gain a comprehensive understanding of market dynamics.
█ How to use
Trend Reversals: High volatility can result in more dramatic price fluctuations, which may lead to sharp trend reversals. For example, a sudden increase in volatility can cause a bullish trend to transition into a bearish one, or vice versa, as traders react to significant price swings.
Volatility Breakouts: Volatility can trigger breakouts in trends. Breakouts occur when the price breaks through a significant support or resistance level, indicating a potential shift in the trend. Higher volatility levels can increase the likelihood of breakouts, as they indicate stronger market momentum and increased buying or selling pressure. This indicator triggers when the volatility increases, and if the price is near a key level when the indicator alerts, it might trigger a great trend.
█ Features
Peak Signal Move
The indicator calculates the peak price move for each ZigZag and displays it under each signal. This highlights how much the market moved between the signals.
Average ZigZag Move
All price moves between two signals are stored, and the average or the median is calculated and displayed in a table. This gives traders a great idea of how much the market moves on average between two signals.
Take Profit
The Take Profit line is placed at the average or the median price move and gives traders a great idea of what they can expect in average profit from the latest signals.
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Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
RSI Exponential Smoothing (Expo)█ Background information
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) are two popular indicators. Traders use these indicators to understand market trends and predict future price changes. However, traders often wonder which indicator is better: RSI or EMA.
What if these indicators give similar results? To find out, we wanted to study the relationship between RSI and EMA. We focused on a hypothesis: when the RSI goes above 50, it might be similar to the price crossing above a certain length of EMA. Similarly, when the RSI goes below 50, it might be similar to the price crossing below a certain length of EMA.
Our goal was simple: to figure out if there is any connection between RSI and EMA.
Conclusion: Yes, it seems that there is a correlation between RSI and EMA, and this indicator clearly displays that relationship. Read more about the study here:
█ Overview of the indicator
The RSI Exponential Smoothing indicator displays RSI levels with clear overbought and oversold zones, shown as easy-to-understand moving averages, and the RSI 50 line as an EMA. Another excellent feature is the added FIB levels. To activate, open the settings and click on "FIB Bands." These levels act as short-term support and resistance levels which can be used for scalping.
█ Benefits of using this indicator instead of regular RSI
The findings about the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) highlight that both indicators are equally accurate (when it comes to crossings), meaning traders can choose either one without compromising accuracy. This empowers traders to pick the indicator that suits their personal preferences and trading style.
█ How it works
Crossings over/under the value of 50
The EMA line in the indicator acts as the corresponding 50 line in the RSI. When the RSI crosses the value 50 equals when Close crosses the EMA line.
Bouncess from the value 50
In this example, we can see that the EMA line on the chart acts as support/resistance equals when RSI rejects the 50 level.
Overbought and Oversold
The indicator comes with overbought and oversold bands equal when RSI becomes overbought or oversold.
█ How to use
This visual representation helps traders to apply RSI strategies directly on the price chart, potentially making RSI trading easier for traders.
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Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
Adaptive Fusion ADX VortexIntroduction
The Adaptive Fusion ADX DI Vortex Indicator is a powerful tool designed to help traders identify trend strength and potential trend reversals in the market. This indicator uses a combination of technical analysis (TA) and mathematical concepts to provide accurate and reliable signals.
Features
The Adaptive Fusion ADX DI Vortex Indicator has several features that make it a powerful tool for traders. The Fusion Mode combines the Vortex Indicator and the ADX DI indicator to provide a more accurate picture of the market. The Hurst Exponent Filter helps to filter out choppy markets (inspired by balipour). Additionally, the indicator can be customized with various inputs and settings to suit individual trading strategies.
Signals
The enterLong signal is generated when the algorithm detects that it's a good time to buy a stock or other asset. This signal is based on certain conditions such as the values of technical indicators like ADX, Vortex, and Fusion. For example, if the ADX value is above a certain threshold and there is a crossover between the plus and minus lines of the ADX indicator, then the algorithm will generate an enterLong signal.
Similarly, the enterShort signal is generated when the algorithm detects that it's a good time to sell a stock or other asset. This signal is also based on certain conditions such as the values of technical indicators like ADX, Vortex, and Fusion. For example, if the ADX value is above a certain threshold and there is a crossunder between the plus and minus lines of the ADX indicator, then the algorithm will generate an enterShort signal.
The exitLong and exitShort signals are generated when the algorithm detects that it's a good time to close a long or short position, respectively. These signals are also based on certain conditions such as the values of technical indicators like ADX, Vortex, and Fusion. For example, if the ADX value crosses above a certain threshold or there is a crossover between the minus and plus lines of the ADX indicator, then the algorithm will generate an exitLong signal.
Usage
Traders can use this indicator in a variety of ways, depending on their trading strategy and style. Short-term traders may use it to identify short-term trends and potential trade opportunities, while long-term traders may use it to identify long-term trends and potential investment opportunities. The indicator can also be used to confirm other technical indicators or trading signals. Personally, I prefer to use it for short-term trades.
Strengths
One of the strengths of the Adaptive Fusion ADX DI Vortex Indicator is its accuracy and reliability. The indicator uses a combination of TA and mathematical concepts to provide accurate and reliable signals, helping traders make informed trading decisions. It is also versatile and can be used in a variety of trading strategies.
Weaknesses
While this indicator has many strengths, it also has some weaknesses. One of the weaknesses is that it can generate false signals in choppy or sideways markets. Additionally, the indicator may lag behind the market, making it less effective in fast-moving markets. That's a reason why I included the Hurst Exponent Filter and special smoothing.
Concepts
The Adaptive ADX DI Vortex Indicator with Fusion Mode and Hurst Filter is based on several key concepts. The Average Directional Index (ADX) is used to measure trend strength, while the Vortex Indicator is used to identify trend reversals. The Hurst Exponent is used to filter out noise and provide a more accurate picture of the market.
In conclusion, the Adaptive Fusion ADX DI Vortex Indicator is a versatile and powerful tool for traders. By combining technical analysis and mathematical concepts, this indicator provides accurate and reliable signals for identifying trend strength and potential trend reversals. While it has some weaknesses, its many strengths and features make it a valuable addition to any trader's toolbox.
---
Credits to:
▪️@cheatcountry – Hann Window Smoohing
▪️@loxx – VHF and T3
▪️@balipour – Hurst Exponent Filter
FunctionBaumWelchLibrary "FunctionBaumWelch"
Baum-Welch Algorithm, also known as Forward-Backward Algorithm, uses the well known EM algorithm
to find the maximum likelihood estimate of the parameters of a hidden Markov model given a set of observed
feature vectors.
---
### Function List:
> `forward (array pi, matrix a, matrix b, array obs)`
> `forward (array pi, matrix a, matrix b, array obs, bool scaling)`
> `backward (matrix a, matrix b, array obs)`
> `backward (matrix a, matrix b, array obs, array c)`
> `baumwelch (array observations, int nstates)`
> `baumwelch (array observations, array pi, matrix a, matrix b)`
---
### Reference:
> en.wikipedia.org
> github.com
> en.wikipedia.org
> www.rdocumentation.org
> www.rdocumentation.org
forward(pi, a, b, obs)
Computes forward probabilities for state `X` up to observation at time `k`, is defined as the
probability of observing sequence of observations `e_1 ... e_k` and that the state at time `k` is `X`.
Parameters:
pi (float ) : Initial probabilities.
a (matrix) : Transmissions, hidden transition matrix a or alpha = transition probability matrix of changing
states given a state matrix is size (M x M) where M is number of states.
b (matrix) : Emissions, matrix of observation probabilities b or beta = observation probabilities. Given
state matrix is size (M x O) where M is number of states and O is number of different
possible observations.
obs (int ) : List with actual state observation data.
Returns: - `matrix _alpha`: Forward probabilities. The probabilities are given on a logarithmic scale (natural logarithm). The first
dimension refers to the state and the second dimension to time.
forward(pi, a, b, obs, scaling)
Computes forward probabilities for state `X` up to observation at time `k`, is defined as the
probability of observing sequence of observations `e_1 ... e_k` and that the state at time `k` is `X`.
Parameters:
pi (float ) : Initial probabilities.
a (matrix) : Transmissions, hidden transition matrix a or alpha = transition probability matrix of changing
states given a state matrix is size (M x M) where M is number of states.
b (matrix) : Emissions, matrix of observation probabilities b or beta = observation probabilities. Given
state matrix is size (M x O) where M is number of states and O is number of different
possible observations.
obs (int ) : List with actual state observation data.
scaling (bool) : Normalize `alpha` scale.
Returns: - #### Tuple with:
> - `matrix _alpha`: Forward probabilities. The probabilities are given on a logarithmic scale (natural logarithm). The first
dimension refers to the state and the second dimension to time.
> - `array _c`: Array with normalization scale.
backward(a, b, obs)
Computes backward probabilities for state `X` and observation at time `k`, is defined as the probability of observing the sequence of observations `e_k+1, ... , e_n` under the condition that the state at time `k` is `X`.
Parameters:
a (matrix) : Transmissions, hidden transition matrix a or alpha = transition probability matrix of changing states
given a state matrix is size (M x M) where M is number of states
b (matrix) : Emissions, matrix of observation probabilities b or beta = observation probabilities. given state
matrix is size (M x O) where M is number of states and O is number of different possible observations
obs (int ) : Array with actual state observation data.
Returns: - `matrix _beta`: Backward probabilities. The probabilities are given on a logarithmic scale (natural logarithm). The first dimension refers to the state and the second dimension to time.
backward(a, b, obs, c)
Computes backward probabilities for state `X` and observation at time `k`, is defined as the probability of observing the sequence of observations `e_k+1, ... , e_n` under the condition that the state at time `k` is `X`.
Parameters:
a (matrix) : Transmissions, hidden transition matrix a or alpha = transition probability matrix of changing states
given a state matrix is size (M x M) where M is number of states
b (matrix) : Emissions, matrix of observation probabilities b or beta = observation probabilities. given state
matrix is size (M x O) where M is number of states and O is number of different possible observations
obs (int ) : Array with actual state observation data.
c (float ) : Array with Normalization scaling coefficients.
Returns: - `matrix _beta`: Backward probabilities. The probabilities are given on a logarithmic scale (natural logarithm). The first dimension refers to the state and the second dimension to time.
baumwelch(observations, nstates)
**(Random Initialization)** Baum–Welch algorithm is a special case of the expectation–maximization algorithm used to find the
unknown parameters of a hidden Markov model (HMM). It makes use of the forward-backward algorithm
to compute the statistics for the expectation step.
Parameters:
observations (int ) : List of observed states.
nstates (int)
Returns: - #### Tuple with:
> - `array _pi`: Initial probability distribution.
> - `matrix _a`: Transition probability matrix.
> - `matrix _b`: Emission probability matrix.
---
requires: `import RicardoSantos/WIPTensor/2 as Tensor`
baumwelch(observations, pi, a, b)
Baum–Welch algorithm is a special case of the expectation–maximization algorithm used to find the
unknown parameters of a hidden Markov model (HMM). It makes use of the forward-backward algorithm
to compute the statistics for the expectation step.
Parameters:
observations (int ) : List of observed states.
pi (float ) : Initial probaility distribution.
a (matrix) : Transmissions, hidden transition matrix a or alpha = transition probability matrix of changing states
given a state matrix is size (M x M) where M is number of states
b (matrix) : Emissions, matrix of observation probabilities b or beta = observation probabilities. given state
matrix is size (M x O) where M is number of states and O is number of different possible observations
Returns: - #### Tuple with:
> - `array _pi`: Initial probability distribution.
> - `matrix _a`: Transition probability matrix.
> - `matrix _b`: Emission probability matrix.
---
requires: `import RicardoSantos/WIPTensor/2 as Tensor`
MACD & RSI Overlay (Expo)█ Overview
The MACD & RSI Overlay (Expo) trading indicator is a technical analysis tool that combines two popular indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI ) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD ), and overlays them onto the price chart. The indicator oscillates relative to price, so it plots the RSI and MACD around price while still displaying the same insights as the regular MACD and RSI indicators. This feature gives traders a unique perspective, allowing them to see the relationship between price, momentum, and trend in a single chart.
This indicator is a valuable addition to any trader's technical analysis toolkit, whether they are a beginner or an experienced trader.
█ MACD
█ RSI
The RSI comes with overbought and oversold areas, which can be set by the trader.
█ MACD & RSI
█ Trend Feature
What sets the MACD & RSI Overlay indicator apart is its ability to factor in the underlying trend. This feature makes the indicator more useful than ever before, as traders can use it to filter trades in the direction of the trend. By considering the underlying trend, traders can gain valuable insights into market trends.
█ Benefits
One of the primary benefits of having the MACD and RSI plotted directly on the price chart is that it provides a more intuitive understanding of the relationship between price, momentum, and trend. Traders can quickly identify the direction of the trend by observing the price movement relative to the MACD and RSI lines. In addition, by having these indicators plotted on the chart, traders can quickly identify potential buy and sell signals and develop new trading strategies.
█ How to use
One of the most popular strategies is to use the MACD & RSI Overlay indicator to look for crossings. A crossing occurs when the MACD and RSI lines cross over each other or when they cross over the signal line. These crossings can signal potential trend reversals and momentum shifts. For example, if the MACD line crosses over the signal line from below, it could indicate a bullish signal, while a cross from above could indicate a bearish signal.
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Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
2B Reversal Pattern (Expo)█ Overview
The 2B reversal pattern , also called the "spring pattern", is a popular chart pattern professional traders use to identify potential trend reversals. It occurs when the price appears to be breaking down or up and then suddenly bounces back up/down, forming a "spring" or "false breakout" pattern. This pattern indicates that the trend is losing momentum and that a reversal is coming.
In a bearish market , the "spring pattern" occurs when the price of an asset breaks below a support level, causing many traders to sell their positions and causing the price to drop even further. However, the selling pressure eases at some point, and the price begins to rebound, "springing" back above the support level. This rebound creates a long opportunity for traders who can enter the market at a lower price.
In a bullish market , the "spring pattern" occurs when the price of an asset breaks above a resistance level, causing many traders to buy into the asset and drive the price up even further. However, the buying pressure eases at some point, and the price begins to decline, "springing" below the resistance level. This decline creates a selling opportunity for traders who can short the market at a higher price.
█ What are the benefits of using the 2B Reversal Pattern?
The benefits of using the 2B Reversal pattern as a trader include identifying potential buying or selling opportunities with reduced risk. By waiting for the price to "spring back" to the initial breakout level, traders can avoid entering the market too soon and minimize the risk of potential losses.
█ How to use
Traders can use the 2B reversal pattern to identify reversals. If the pattern occurs after an uptrend, traders may sell their long positions or enter a short position, anticipating a reversal to a downtrend. If the pattern occurs after a downtrend, traders may sell their short positions or enter a long position, anticipating a reversal to an uptrend.
█ Consolidation Strategy
First, traders should identify a period of price consolidation or a trading range where the price has been trading sideways for some time. The key feature of the "spring pattern" is a sudden, sharp move downward/upwards through the lower/upper boundary of this trading range, often accompanied by high volume.
However, instead of continuing to move lower/higher, the price then quickly recovers and moves back into the trading range, often on low volume. This quick recovery is the "spring" part of the pattern and suggests that the market has rejected the lower/higher price and that buying/selling pressure is building.
Traders may use the "spring pattern" as a signal to buy/sell the asset, suggesting strong demand/supply for the stock at the lower/higher price level. However, as with all trading strategies, it is important to use other indicators and to manage risk to minimize potential losses carefully.
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Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
Ross Hook Pattern (Expo)█ Overview
The Ross Hook pattern is one of the most consistent and successful trading patterns that have been around for years. The Ross Hook is the first correction following the breakout of the 1-2-3 formation . This means that the Ross Hook only occurs in established trends. In other words, Ross Hook is a trend continuation setup. To fully understand the Ross Hook formation, you must understand the 1-2-3 pattern .
Ross Hook Pattern (Expo) is an indicator designed to detect the Ross Hook formation automatically and in real-time in any market and timeframe. With the inbuilt alert feature, the Ross Hook Pattern (Expo) Indicator analyzes the market for you and notifies you when the Ross Hook formations have been found.
█ How to use
Use this indicator to identify the Ross Hook pattern and to find good trend continuation setups. The formation can be used to determine when a trend is confirmed and established.
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Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
1-2-3 Pattern (Expo)█ Overview
The 1-2-3 pattern is the most basic and important formation in the market. Almost every great market move has started with this formation. That is why you must use this pattern to detect the next big trend. In fact, every trader has used the 1-2-3 formation to detect a trend change without realizing it.
Our 1-2-3 Pattern (Expo) indicator helps traders quickly identify the 1-2-3 Reversal Pattern automatically. By analyzing the price action data, the indicator shows the pattern in real-time. When the pattern is discovered, the 1-2-3 Pattern (Expo) Indicator notifies you via its built-in alert feature! Catching the upcoming big move can't be that much simpler.
█ How to use
The 1-2-3 pattern is used to spot trend reversals. The pattern indicates that a trend is coming to an end and a new one is forming.
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Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
False Breakout (Expo)█ Overview
False Breakout (Expo) is an indicator that detects false breakouts in real-time. A false breakout occurs when the price moves through a certain level but doesn't continue to accelerate in that direction. This is because the price does not have enough momentum and the buying interest at this level is not high enough to keep pushing the price in that direction. Instead, the market reverses! All breakout traders are now forced to close their positions at a loss. However, contrarian traders that have identified this false breakout do get a perfect entry for a great reversal trade!
False Breakout is one of the most important price action trading patterns to learn because it can help traders understand whether a breakout is valid or false.
█ How to use
Identify False Breakouts
Identify Reversal trades
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Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
American Approximation: Barone-Adesi and Whaley [Loxx]American Approximation: Barone-Adesi and Whaley is an American Options pricing model. This indicator also includes numerical greeks. You can compare the output of the American Approximation to the Black-Scholes-Merton value on the output of the options panel.
An American option can be exercised at any time up to its expiration date. This added freedom complicates the valuation of American options relative to their European counterparts. With a few exceptions, it is not possible to find an exact formula for the value of American options. Several researchers have, however, come up with excellent closed-form approximations. These approximations have become especially popular because they execute quickly on computers compared to numerical techniques. At the end of the chapter, we look at closed-form solutions for perpetual American options.
The Barone-Adesi and Whaley Approximation
The quadratic approximation method by Barone-Adesi and Whaley (1987) can be used to price American call and put options on an underlying asset with cost-of-carry rate b. When b > r, the American call value is equal to the European call value and can then be found by using the generalized Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) formula. The model is fast and accurate for most practical input values.
American Call
C(S, C, T) = Cbsm(S, X, T) + A2 / (S/S*)^q2 ... when S < S*
C(S, C, T) = S - X ... when S >= S*
where Cbsm(S, X, T) is the general Black-Scholes-Merton call formula, and
A2 = S* / q2 * (1 - e^((b - r) * T)) * N(d1(S*)))
d1(S) = (log(S/X) + (b + v^2/2) * T) / (v * T^0.5)
q2 = (-(N-1) + ((N-1)^2 + 4M/K))^0.5) / 2
M = 2r/v^2
N = 2b/v^2
K = 1 - e^(-r*T)
American Put
P(S, C, T) = Pbsm(S, X, T) + A1 / (S/S**)^q1 ... when S < S**
P(S, C, T) = X - S .... when S >= S**
where Pbsm(S, X, T) is the generalized BSM put option formula, and
A1 = -S** / q1 * (1 - e^((b - r) * T)) * N(-d1(S**)))
q1 = (-(N-1) - ((N-1)^2 + 4M/K))^0.5) / 2
where S* is the critical commodity price for the call option that satisfies
S* - X = c(S*, X, T) + (1 - e^((b - r) * T) * N(d1(S*))) * S* * 1/q2
These equations can be solved by using a Newton-Raphson algorithm. The iterative procedure should continue until the relative absolute error falls within an acceptable tolerance level. See code for details on the Newton-Raphson algorithm.
Inputs
S = Stock price.
K = Strike price of option.
T = Time to expiration in years.
r = Risk-free rate
c = Cost of Carry
V = Variance of the underlying asset price
cnd1(x) = Cumulative Normal Distribution
cbnd3(x) = Cumulative Bivariate Normal Distribution
nd(x) = Standard Normal Density Function
convertingToCCRate(r, cmp) = Rate compounder
Numerical Greeks or Greeks by Finite Difference
Analytical Greeks are the standard approach to estimating Delta, Gamma etc... That is what we typically use when we can derive from closed form solutions. Normally, these are well-defined and available in text books. Previously, we relied on closed form solutions for the call or put formulae differentiated with respect to the Black Scholes parameters. When Greeks formulae are difficult to develop or tease out, we can alternatively employ numerical Greeks - sometimes referred to finite difference approximations. A key advantage of numerical Greeks relates to their estimation independent of deriving mathematical Greeks. This could be important when we examine American options where there may not technically exist an exact closed form solution that is straightforward to work with. (via VinegarHill FinanceLabs)
Things to know
Only works on the daily timeframe and for the current source price.
You can adjust the text size to fit the screen
TradingView Alerts (Expo)█ Overview
The TradingView inbuilt alert feature inspires this alert tool.
TradingView Alerts (Expo) enables traders to set alerts on any indicator on TradingView, both public, protected, and invite-only scripts (if you are granted access). In this way, traders can set the alerts they want for any indicator they have access to. This feature is highly needed since many indicators on TradingView do not have the particular alert the trader looks for, this alert tool solves that problem and lets everyone create the alert they need. Many predefined conditions are included, such as "crossings," "turning up/down," "entering a channel," and much more.
█ TradingView alerts
TradingView alerts are a popular and convenient way of getting an immediate notification when the asset meets your set alert criteria. It helps traders to stay updated on the assets and timeframe they follow.
█ Alert table
Keep track of the average amount of alerts that have been triggered per day, per month, and per week. It helps traders to understand how frequently they can expect an alert to trigger.
█ Predefined alerts types
Crossing
The Crossing alert is triggered when the source input crosses (up or down) from the selected price or value.
Crossing Down / Crossing Up
The Crossing Down alert is triggered when the source input crosses down from the selected price or value.
The Crossing Up alert is triggered when the source input crosses up from the selected price or value.
Greater Than / Less Than
The Greater Than alert is triggered when the source input reaches the selected value or price.
The Less Than alert is triggered when the source input reaches the selected value or price.
Entering Channel / Exiting Channel
The Entering Channel alert is triggered when the source input enters the selected channel value.
The Exiting Channel alert is triggered when the source input exits the selected channel value.
Notice that this alert only works if you have selected "Channels."
Inside Channel / Outside Channel
The Inside Channel alert is triggered when the source input is within the selected Upper and Lower Channel boundaries.
The Outside Channel alert is triggered when the source input is outside the selected Upper and Lower Channel boundaries.
Notice that this alert only works if you have selected "Channels."
Moving Up / Moving Down
This alert is the same as "crossing up/down" within x-bars.
The Moving Up alert is triggered when the source input increases by a certain value within x-bars.
The Moving Down alert is triggered when the source input decreases by a certain value within x-bars.
Notice that you have to set the Number of Bars parameter!
The calculation starts from the last formed candlestick.
Moving Up % / Moving Down %
The Moving Up % alert is triggered when the source input increases by a certain percentage value within x-bars.
The Moving Down % alert is triggered when the source input decreases by a certain percentage value within x-bars.
Notice that you have to set the Number of Bars parameter!
The calculation starts from the last formed candlestick.
Turning Up / Turning Down
The Turning Up alert is triggered when the source input turns up.
The Turning Down alert is triggered when the source input turns down.
-----------------
Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
CFB-Adaptive Velocity Histogram [Loxx]CFB-Adaptive Velocity Histogram is a velocity indicator with One-More-Moving-Average Adaptive Smoothing of input source value and Jurik's Composite-Fractal-Behavior-Adaptive Price-Trend-Period input with Dynamic Zones. All Juirk smoothing allows for both single and double Jurik smoothing passes. Velocity is adjusted to pips but there is no input value for the user. This indicator is tuned for Forex but can be used on any time series data.
What is Composite Fractal Behavior ( CFB )?
All around you mechanisms adjust themselves to their environment. From simple thermostats that react to air temperature to computer chips in modern cars that respond to changes in engine temperature, r.p.m.'s, torque, and throttle position. It was only a matter of time before fast desktop computers applied the mathematics of self-adjustment to systems that trade the financial markets.
Unlike basic systems with fixed formulas, an adaptive system adjusts its own equations. For example, start with a basic channel breakout system that uses the highest closing price of the last N bars as a threshold for detecting breakouts on the up side. An adaptive and improved version of this system would adjust N according to market conditions, such as momentum, price volatility or acceleration.
Since many systems are based directly or indirectly on cycles, another useful measure of market condition is the periodic length of a price chart's dominant cycle, (DC), that cycle with the greatest influence on price action.
The utility of this new DC measure was noted by author Murray Ruggiero in the January '96 issue of Futures Magazine. In it. Mr. Ruggiero used it to adaptive adjust the value of N in a channel breakout system. He then simulated trading 15 years of D-Mark futures in order to compare its performance to a similar system that had a fixed optimal value of N. The adaptive version produced 20% more profit!
This DC index utilized the popular MESA algorithm (a formulation by John Ehlers adapted from Burg's maximum entropy algorithm, MEM). Unfortunately, the DC approach is problematic when the market has no real dominant cycle momentum, because the mathematics will produce a value whether or not one actually exists! Therefore, we developed a proprietary indicator that does not presuppose the presence of market cycles. It's called CFB (Composite Fractal Behavior) and it works well whether or not the market is cyclic.
CFB examines price action for a particular fractal pattern, categorizes them by size, and then outputs a composite fractal size index. This index is smooth, timely and accurate
Essentially, CFB reveals the length of the market's trending action time frame. Long trending activity produces a large CFB index and short choppy action produces a small index value. Investors have found many applications for CFB which involve scaling other existing technical indicators adaptively, on a bar-to-bar basis.
What is Jurik Volty used in the Juirk Filter?
One of the lesser known qualities of Juirk smoothing is that the Jurik smoothing process is adaptive. "Jurik Volty" (a sort of market volatility ) is what makes Jurik smoothing adaptive. The Jurik Volty calculation can be used as both a standalone indicator and to smooth other indicators that you wish to make adaptive.
What is the Jurik Moving Average?
Have you noticed how moving averages add some lag (delay) to your signals? ... especially when price gaps up or down in a big move, and you are waiting for your moving average to catch up? Wait no more! JMA eliminates this problem forever and gives you the best of both worlds: low lag and smooth lines.
Ideally, you would like a filtered signal to be both smooth and lag-free. Lag causes delays in your trades, and increasing lag in your indicators typically result in lower profits. In other words, late comers get what's left on the table after the feast has already begun.
What are Dynamic Zones?
As explained in "Stocks & Commodities V15:7 (306-310): Dynamic Zones by Leo Zamansky, Ph .D., and David Stendahl"
Most indicators use a fixed zone for buy and sell signals. Here’ s a concept based on zones that are responsive to past levels of the indicator.
One approach to active investing employs the use of oscillators to exploit tradable market trends. This investing style follows a very simple form of logic: Enter the market only when an oscillator has moved far above or below traditional trading lev- els. However, these oscillator- driven systems lack the ability to evolve with the market because they use fixed buy and sell zones. Traders typically use one set of buy and sell zones for a bull market and substantially different zones for a bear market. And therein lies the problem.
Once traders begin introducing their market opinions into trading equations, by changing the zones, they negate the system’s mechanical nature. The objective is to have a system automatically define its own buy and sell zones and thereby profitably trade in any market — bull or bear. Dynamic zones offer a solution to the problem of fixed buy and sell zones for any oscillator-driven system.
An indicator’s extreme levels can be quantified using statistical methods. These extreme levels are calculated for a certain period and serve as the buy and sell zones for a trading system. The repetition of this statistical process for every value of the indicator creates values that become the dynamic zones. The zones are calculated in such a way that the probability of the indicator value rising above, or falling below, the dynamic zones is equal to a given probability input set by the trader.
To better understand dynamic zones, let's first describe them mathematically and then explain their use. The dynamic zones definition:
Find V such that:
For dynamic zone buy: P{X <= V}=P1
For dynamic zone sell: P{X >= V}=P2
where P1 and P2 are the probabilities set by the trader, X is the value of the indicator for the selected period and V represents the value of the dynamic zone.
The probability input P1 and P2 can be adjusted by the trader to encompass as much or as little data as the trader would like. The smaller the probability, the fewer data values above and below the dynamic zones. This translates into a wider range between the buy and sell zones. If a 10% probability is used for P1 and P2, only those data values that make up the top 10% and bottom 10% for an indicator are used in the construction of the zones. Of the values, 80% will fall between the two extreme levels. Because dynamic zone levels are penetrated so infrequently, when this happens, traders know that the market has truly moved into overbought or oversold territory.
Calculating the Dynamic Zones
The algorithm for the dynamic zones is a series of steps. First, decide the value of the lookback period t. Next, decide the value of the probability Pbuy for buy zone and value of the probability Psell for the sell zone.
For i=1, to the last lookback period, build the distribution f(x) of the price during the lookback period i. Then find the value Vi1 such that the probability of the price less than or equal to Vi1 during the lookback period i is equal to Pbuy. Find the value Vi2 such that the probability of the price greater or equal to Vi2 during the lookback period i is equal to Psell. The sequence of Vi1 for all periods gives the buy zone. The sequence of Vi2 for all periods gives the sell zone.
In the algorithm description, we have: Build the distribution f(x) of the price during the lookback period i. The distribution here is empirical namely, how many times a given value of x appeared during the lookback period. The problem is to find such x that the probability of a price being greater or equal to x will be equal to a probability selected by the user. Probability is the area under the distribution curve. The task is to find such value of x that the area under the distribution curve to the right of x will be equal to the probability selected by the user. That x is the dynamic zone.
Included:
Bar coloring
3 signal variations w/ alerts
Divergences w/ alerts
Loxx's Expanded Source Types
CFB-Adaptive, Williams %R w/ Dynamic Zones [Loxx]CFB-Adaptive, Williams %R w/ Dynamic Zones is a Jurik-Composite-Fractal-Behavior-Adaptive Williams % Range indicator with Dynamic Zones. These additions to the WPR calculation reduce noise and return a signal that is more viable than WPR alone.
What is Williams %R?
Williams %R , also known as the Williams Percent Range, is a type of momentum indicator that moves between 0 and -100 and measures overbought and oversold levels. The Williams %R may be used to find entry and exit points in the market. The indicator is very similar to the Stochastic oscillator and is used in the same way. It was developed by Larry Williams and it compares a stock’s closing price to the high-low range over a specific period, typically 14 days or periods.
What is Composite Fractal Behavior ( CFB )?
All around you mechanisms adjust themselves to their environment. From simple thermostats that react to air temperature to computer chips in modern cars that respond to changes in engine temperature, r.p.m.'s, torque, and throttle position. It was only a matter of time before fast desktop computers applied the mathematics of self-adjustment to systems that trade the financial markets.
Unlike basic systems with fixed formulas, an adaptive system adjusts its own equations. For example, start with a basic channel breakout system that uses the highest closing price of the last N bars as a threshold for detecting breakouts on the up side. An adaptive and improved version of this system would adjust N according to market conditions, such as momentum, price volatility or acceleration.
Since many systems are based directly or indirectly on cycles, another useful measure of market condition is the periodic length of a price chart's dominant cycle, (DC), that cycle with the greatest influence on price action.
The utility of this new DC measure was noted by author Murray Ruggiero in the January '96 issue of Futures Magazine. In it. Mr. Ruggiero used it to adaptive adjust the value of N in a channel breakout system. He then simulated trading 15 years of D-Mark futures in order to compare its performance to a similar system that had a fixed optimal value of N. The adaptive version produced 20% more profit!
This DC index utilized the popular MESA algorithm (a formulation by John Ehlers adapted from Burg's maximum entropy algorithm, MEM). Unfortunately, the DC approach is problematic when the market has no real dominant cycle momentum, because the mathematics will produce a value whether or not one actually exists! Therefore, we developed a proprietary indicator that does not presuppose the presence of market cycles. It's called CFB (Composite Fractal Behavior) and it works well whether or not the market is cyclic.
CFB examines price action for a particular fractal pattern, categorizes them by size, and then outputs a composite fractal size index. This index is smooth, timely and accurate
Essentially, CFB reveals the length of the market's trending action time frame. Long trending activity produces a large CFB index and short choppy action produces a small index value. Investors have found many applications for CFB which involve scaling other existing technical indicators adaptively, on a bar-to-bar basis.
What is Jurik Volty used in the Juirk Filter?
One of the lesser known qualities of Juirk smoothing is that the Jurik smoothing process is adaptive. "Jurik Volty" (a sort of market volatility ) is what makes Jurik smoothing adaptive. The Jurik Volty calculation can be used as both a standalone indicator and to smooth other indicators that you wish to make adaptive.
What is the Jurik Moving Average?
Have you noticed how moving averages add some lag (delay) to your signals? ... especially when price gaps up or down in a big move, and you are waiting for your moving average to catch up? Wait no more! JMA eliminates this problem forever and gives you the best of both worlds: low lag and smooth lines.
Ideally, you would like a filtered signal to be both smooth and lag-free. Lag causes delays in your trades, and increasing lag in your indicators typically result in lower profits. In other words, late comers get what's left on the table after the feast has already begun.
What are Dynamic Zones?
As explained in "Stocks & Commodities V15:7 (306-310): Dynamic Zones by Leo Zamansky, Ph .D., and David Stendahl"
Most indicators use a fixed zone for buy and sell signals. Here’ s a concept based on zones that are responsive to past levels of the indicator.
One approach to active investing employs the use of oscillators to exploit tradable market trends. This investing style follows a very simple form of logic: Enter the market only when an oscillator has moved far above or below traditional trading lev- els. However, these oscillator- driven systems lack the ability to evolve with the market because they use fixed buy and sell zones. Traders typically use one set of buy and sell zones for a bull market and substantially different zones for a bear market. And therein lies the problem.
Once traders begin introducing their market opinions into trading equations, by changing the zones, they negate the system’s mechanical nature. The objective is to have a system automatically define its own buy and sell zones and thereby profitably trade in any market — bull or bear. Dynamic zones offer a solution to the problem of fixed buy and sell zones for any oscillator-driven system.
An indicator’s extreme levels can be quantified using statistical methods. These extreme levels are calculated for a certain period and serve as the buy and sell zones for a trading system. The repetition of this statistical process for every value of the indicator creates values that become the dynamic zones. The zones are calculated in such a way that the probability of the indicator value rising above, or falling below, the dynamic zones is equal to a given probability input set by the trader.
To better understand dynamic zones, let's first describe them mathematically and then explain their use. The dynamic zones definition:
Find V such that:
For dynamic zone buy: P{X <= V}=P1
For dynamic zone sell: P{X >= V}=P2
where P1 and P2 are the probabilities set by the trader, X is the value of the indicator for the selected period and V represents the value of the dynamic zone.
The probability input P1 and P2 can be adjusted by the trader to encompass as much or as little data as the trader would like. The smaller the probability, the fewer data values above and below the dynamic zones. This translates into a wider range between the buy and sell zones. If a 10% probability is used for P1 and P2, only those data values that make up the top 10% and bottom 10% for an indicator are used in the construction of the zones. Of the values, 80% will fall between the two extreme levels. Because dynamic zone levels are penetrated so infrequently, when this happens, traders know that the market has truly moved into overbought or oversold territory.
Calculating the Dynamic Zones
The algorithm for the dynamic zones is a series of steps. First, decide the value of the lookback period t. Next, decide the value of the probability Pbuy for buy zone and value of the probability Psell for the sell zone.
For i=1, to the last lookback period, build the distribution f(x) of the price during the lookback period i. Then find the value Vi1 such that the probability of the price less than or equal to Vi1 during the lookback period i is equal to Pbuy. Find the value Vi2 such that the probability of the price greater or equal to Vi2 during the lookback period i is equal to Psell. The sequence of Vi1 for all periods gives the buy zone. The sequence of Vi2 for all periods gives the sell zone.
In the algorithm description, we have: Build the distribution f(x) of the price during the lookback period i. The distribution here is empirical namely, how many times a given value of x appeared during the lookback period. The problem is to find such x that the probability of a price being greater or equal to x will be equal to a probability selected by the user. Probability is the area under the distribution curve. The task is to find such value of x that the area under the distribution curve to the right of x will be equal to the probability selected by the user. That x is the dynamic zone.
Included:
Bar coloring
3 signal variations w/ alerts
Divergences w/ alerts
Loxx's Expanded Source Types
Intermediate Williams %R w/ Discontinued Signal Lines [Loxx]Intermediate Williams %R w/ Discontinued Signal Lines is a Williams %R indicator with advanced options:
-Williams %R smoothing, 30+ smoothing algos found here:
-Williams %R signal, 30+ smoothing algos found here:
-DSL lines with smoothing or fixed overbought/oversold boundaries, smoothing algos are EMA and FEMA
-33 Expanded Source Type inputs including Heiken-Ashi and Heiken-Ashi Better, found here:
What is Williams %R?
Williams %R, also known as the Williams Percent Range, is a type of momentum indicator that moves between 0 and -100 and measures overbought and oversold levels. The Williams %R may be used to find entry and exit points in the market. The indicator is very similar to the Stochastic oscillator and is used in the same way. It was developed by Larry Williams and it compares a stock’s closing price to the high-low range over a specific period, typically 14 days or periods.
Included:
-Toggle on/off bar coloring
-Toggle on/off signal line
