[Top] Simple ATR TP/SLSimple TP/SL from ATR (Locked per Bar) - Advanced Position Management Tool
What This Indicator Does:
Automatically calculates and displays Take Profit (TP) and Stop Loss (SL) levels based on Average True Range (ATR)
Locks ATR values and direction signals at the start of each bar to prevent repainting and provide consistent levels
Offers multiple direction detection modes including real-time candle-based positioning for dynamic trading approaches
Displays entry, TP, and SL levels as clean horizontal lines that extend from the current bar
Original Features That Make This Script Unique:
Bar-Locked ATR System: ATR values are captured and frozen at bar open, ensuring levels remain stable throughout the bar's progression
Multi-Modal Direction Detection: Four distinct modes for determining TP/SL positioning - Trend Following (EMA-based), Bullish Only, Bearish Only, and real-time Candle Based
Real-Time Candle Flipping: In Candle Based mode, TP/SL levels flip immediately when the current candle changes from bullish to bearish or vice versa
Persistent Line Management: Uses efficient line object management to prevent ghost lines and maintain clean visual presentation
Flexible Base Price Selection: Choose between Open (static), Close (dynamic), or midpoint (H+L)/2 for entry level calculation
How The Algorithm Works:
ATR Calculation: Captures ATR value at each bar open using specified length parameter, maintaining consistency throughout the bar
Direction Determination: Uses different methods based on selected mode - EMA crossover for trend following, or real-time candle color for dynamic positioning
Level Calculation: TP level = Base Price + (Direction × TP Multiplier × ATR), SL level = Base Price - (Direction × SL Multiplier × ATR)
Visual Management: Creates persistent line objects once, then updates their positions every bar for optimal performance
Direction Modes Explained:
Trend Following: Uses 5-period and 12-period EMA relationship to determine trend direction (locked at bar open)
Bullish Only: Always places TP above and SL below entry (traditional long setup)
Bearish Only: Always places TP below and SL above entry (traditional short setup)
Candle Based: Dynamically adjusts based on current candle direction - flips in real-time as candle develops
Key Input Parameters:
ATR Length: Period for ATR calculation (default 14) - longer periods provide smoother volatility measurement
TP Multiplier: Take profit distance as multiple of ATR (default 1.0) - higher values target larger profits
SL Multiplier: Stop loss distance as multiple of ATR (default 1.0) - higher values allow more room for price movement
Base Price: Reference point for level calculations - Open for static entry, Close for dynamic tracking
Direction Mode: Method for determining whether TP goes above or below entry level
How To Use This Indicator:
For Position Sizing: Use the displayed SL distance to calculate appropriate position size based on your risk tolerance
For Entry Timing: Wait for price to approach the entry level before taking positions
For Risk Management: Set your actual stop loss orders at or near the displayed SL level
For Profit Taking: Use the TP level as initial profit target, consider scaling out at this level
Mode Selection: Choose Candle Based for scalping and quick reversals, Trend Following for swing trading
Visual Style Customization:
Line Colors: Customize TP line color (default teal) and SL line color (default orange) for easy identification
Line Widths: Adjust TP/SL line thickness (1-5) and entry line thickness (1-3) for visibility preferences
Clean Display: Lines extend 3 bars forward from current bar and update position dynamically
Best Practices:
Use on clean charts without multiple overlapping indicators for clearest visual interpretation
Combine with volume analysis and key support/resistance levels for enhanced decision making
Adjust ATR length based on your trading timeframe - shorter for scalping, longer for position trading
Test different TP/SL multipliers based on the volatility characteristics of your chosen instruments
Consider using Trend Following mode during strong trending periods and Candle Based during ranging markets
在腳本中搜尋"algo"
Adaptive Rolling Quantile Bands [CHE] Adaptive Rolling Quantile Bands
Part 1 — Mathematics and Algorithmic Design
Purpose. The indicator estimates distribution‐aware price levels from a rolling window and turns them into dynamic “buy” and “sell” bands. It can work on raw price or on *residuals* around a baseline to better isolate deviations from trend. Optionally, the percentile parameter $q$ adapts to volatility via ATR so the bands widen in turbulent regimes and tighten in calm ones. A compact, latched state machine converts these statistical levels into high-quality discretionary signals.
Data pipeline.
1. Choose a source (default `close`; MTF optional via `request.security`).
2. Optionally compute a baseline (`SMA` or `EMA`) of length $L$.
3. Build the *working series*: raw price if residual mode is off; otherwise price minus baseline (if a baseline exists).
4. Maintain a FIFO buffer of the last $N$ values (window length). All quantiles are computed on this buffer.
5. Map the resulting levels back to price space if residual mode is on (i.e., add back the baseline).
6. Smooth levels with a short EMA for readability.
Rolling quantiles.
Given the buffer $X_{t-N+1..t}$ and a percentile $q\in $, the indicator sorts a copy of the buffer ascending and linearly interpolates between adjacent ranks to estimate:
* Buy band $\approx Q(q)$
* Sell band $\approx Q(1-q)$
* Median $Q(0.5)$, plus optional deciles $Q(0.10)$ and $Q(0.90)$
Quantiles are robust to outliers relative to means. The estimator uses only data up to the current bar’s value in the buffer; there is no look-ahead.
Residual transform (optional).
In residual mode, quantiles are computed on $X^{res}_t = \text{price}_t - \text{baseline}_t$. This centers the distribution and often yields more stationary tails. After computing $Q(\cdot)$ on residuals, levels are transformed back to price space by adding the baseline. If `Baseline = None`, residual mode simply falls back to raw price.
Volatility-adaptive percentile.
Let $\text{ATR}_{14}(t)$ be current ATR and $\overline{\text{ATR}}_{100}(t)$ its long SMA. Define a volatility ratio $r = \text{ATR}_{14}/\overline{\text{ATR}}_{100}$. The effective quantile is:
Smoothing.
Each level is optionally smoothed by an EMA of length $k$ for cleaner visuals. This smoothing does not change the underlying quantile logic; it only stabilizes plots and signals.
Latched state machines.
Two three-step processes convert levels into “latched” signals that only fire after confirmation and then reset:
* BUY latch:
(1) HLC3 crosses above the median →
(2) the median is rising →
(3) HLC3 prints above the upper (orange) band → BUY latched.
* SELL latch:
(1) HLC3 crosses below the median →
(2) the median is falling →
(3) HLC3 prints below the lower (teal) band → SELL latched.
Labels are drawn on the latch bar, with a FIFO cap to limit clutter. Alerts are available for both the simple band interactions and the latched events. Use “Once per bar close” to avoid intrabar churn.
MTF behavior and repainting.
MTF sourcing uses `lookahead_off`. Quantiles and baselines are computed from completed data only; however, any *intrabar* cross conditions naturally stabilize at close. As with all real-time indicators, values can update during a live bar; prefer bar-close alerts for reliability.
Complexity and parameters.
Each bar sorts a copy of the $N$-length window (practical $N$ values keep this inexpensive). Typical choices: $N=50$–$100$, $q_0=0.15$–$0.25$, $k=2$–$5$, baseline length $L=20$ (if used), adaptation strength $s=0.2$–$0.7$.
Part 2 — Practical Use for Discretionary/Active Traders
What the bands mean in practice.
The teal “buy” band marks the lower tail of the recent distribution; the orange “sell” band marks the upper tail. The median is your dynamic equilibrium. In residual mode, these tails are deviations around trend; in raw mode they are absolute price percentiles. When ATR adaptation is on, tails breathe with regime shifts.
Two core playbooks.
1. Mean-reversion around a stable median.
* Context: The median is flat or gently sloped; band width is relatively tight; instrument is ranging.
* Entry (long): Look for price to probe or close below the buy band and then reclaim it, especially after HLC3 recrosses the median and the median turns up.
* Stops: Place beyond the most recent swing low or $1.0–1.5\times$ ATR(14) below entry.
* Targets: First scale at the median; optional second scale near the opposite band. Trail with the median or an ATR stop.
* Symmetry: Mirror the rules for shorts near the sell band when the median is flat to down.
2. Continuation with latched confirmations.
* Context: A developing trend where you want fewer but cleaner signals.
* Entry (long): Take the latched BUY (3-step confirmation) on close, or on the next bar if you require bar-close validation.
* Invalidation: A close back below the median (or below the lower band in strong trends) negates momentum.
* Exits: Trail under the median for conservative exits or under the teal band for trend-following exits. Consider scaling at structure (prior swing highs) or at a fixed $R$ multiple.
Parameter guidance by timeframe.
* Scalping / LTF (1–5m): $N=30$–$60$, $q_0=0.20$, $k=2$–3, residual mode on, baseline EMA $L=20$, adaptation $s=0.5$–0.7 to handle micro-vol spikes. Expect more signals; rely on latched logic to filter noise.
* Intraday swing (15–60m): $N=60$–$100$, $q_0=0.15$–0.20, $k=3$–4. Residual mode helps but is optional if the instrument trends cleanly. $s=0.3$–0.6.
* Swing / HTF (4H–D): $N=80$–$150$, $q_0=0.10$–0.18, $k=3$–5. Consider `SMA` baseline for smoother residuals and moderate adaptation $s=0.2$–0.4.
Baseline choice.
Use EMA for responsiveness (fast trend shifts) and SMA for stability (smoother residuals). Turning residual mode on is advantageous when price exhibits persistent drift; turning it off is useful when you explicitly want absolute bands.
How to time entries.
Prefer bar-close validation for both band recaptures and latched signals. If you must act intrabar, accept that crosses can “un-cross” before close; compensate with tighter stops or reduced size.
Risk management.
Position size to a fixed fractional risk per trade (e.g., 0.5–1.0% of equity). Define invalidation using structure (swing points) plus ATR. Avoid chasing when distance to the opposite band is small; reward-to-risk degrades rapidly once you are deep inside the distribution.
Combos and filters.
* Pair with a higher-timeframe median slope as a regime filter (trade only in the direction of the HTF median).
* Use band width relative to ATR as a range/trend gauge: unusually narrow bands suggest compression (mean-reversion bias); expanding bands suggest breakout potential (favor latched continuation).
* Volume or session filters (e.g., avoid illiquid hours) can materially improve execution.
Alerts for discretion.
Enable “Cross above Buy Level” / “Cross below Sell Level” for early notices and “Latched BUY/SELL” for conviction entries. Set alerts to “Once per bar close” to avoid noise.
Common pitfalls.
Do not interpret band touches as automatic signals; context matters. A strong trend will often ride the far band (“band walking”) and punish counter-trend fades—use the median slope and latched logic to separate trend from range. Do not oversmooth levels; you will lag breaks. Do not set $q$ too small or too large; extremes reduce statistical meaning and practical distance for stops.
A concise checklist.
1. Is the median flat (range) or sloped (trend)?
2. Is band width expanding or contracting vs ATR?
3. Are we near the tail level aligned with the intended trade?
4. For continuation: did the 3 steps for a latched signal complete?
5. Do stops and targets produce acceptable $R$ (≥1.5–2.0)?
6. Are you trading during liquid hours for the instrument?
Summary. ARQB provides statistically grounded, regime-aware bands and a disciplined, latched confirmation engine. Use the bands as objective context, the median as your equilibrium line, ATR adaptation to stay calibrated across regimes, and the latched logic to time higher-quality discretionary entries.
Disclaimer
No indicator guarantees profits. Adaptive Rolling Quantile Bands is a decision aid; always combine with solid risk management and your own judgment. Backtest, forward test, and size responsibly.
The content provided, including all code and materials, is strictly for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as, and should not be interpreted as, financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or an offer of any financial product or service. All strategies, tools, and examples discussed are provided for illustrative purposes to demonstrate coding techniques and the functionality of Pine Script within a trading context.
Any results from strategies or tools provided are hypothetical, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve high risk, including the potential loss of principal, and may not be suitable for all individuals. Before making any trading decisions, please consult with a qualified financial professional to understand the risks involved.
By using this script, you acknowledge and agree that any trading decisions are made solely at your discretion and risk.
Enhance your trading precision and confidence 🚀
Best regards
Chervolino
Sunmool's Silver Bullet Model FinderICT Silver Bullet Model Indicator - Complete Guide
📈 Overview
The ICT Silver Bullet Model indicator is a supplementary tool for utilizing ICT's (Inner Circle Trader) market structure analysis techniques. This indicator detects institutional liquidity hunting patterns and automatically identifies structural levels, helping traders analyze market structure more effectively.
🎯 Core Features
1. Structural Level Identification
STL (Short Term Low): Recent support levels formed in the short term
STH (Short Term High): Recent resistance levels formed in the short term
ITL (Intermediate Term Low): Stronger support levels with more significance
ITH (Intermediate Term High): Stronger resistance levels with more significance
2. Kill Zone Time Display
London Kill Zone: 02:00-05:00 (default)
New York Kill Zone: 08:30-11:00 (default)
These are the most active trading hours for institutional players where significant price movements occur
3. Smart Sweep Detection
Bear Sweep (🔻): Pattern where price sweeps below lows then recovers - Simply indicates sweep occurrence
Bull Sweep (🔺): Pattern where price sweeps above highs then declines - Simply indicates sweep occurrence
Important: Sweep labels only mark liquidity hunting locations, not directional bias.
🔧 Configuration Parameters
Basic Settings
Sweep Detection Lookback: Number of candles for sweep detection (default: 20)
Structure Point Lookback: Number of candles for structural point detection (default: 10)
Sweep Threshold: Percentage threshold for sweep validation (default: 0.1%)
Time Settings
London Kill Zone: Active hours for London session
New York Kill Zone: Active hours for New York session
Visualization Settings
Customizable colors for each level type
Enable/disable alert notifications
📊 How to Use
1. Chart Setup
Most effective on 1-minute to 1-hour timeframes
Recommended for major currency pairs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, etc.)
Also applicable to cryptocurrencies and indices
2. Signal Interpretation
🔻 Bear Sweep / 🔺 Bull Sweep Labels
Simply indicate liquidity hunting occurrence points
Not directional bias indicators
Reference for understanding overall context on HTF
🟢 Silver Bullet Long (Huge Green Triangle)
After Bear Sweep occurrence
Within Kill Zone timeframe
Current price positioned above swept level
→ Actual BUY entry signal
🔴 Silver Bullet Short (Huge Red Triangle)
After Bull Sweep occurrence
Within Kill Zone timeframe
Current price positioned below swept level
→ Actual SELL entry signal
3. Risk Management
Use swept levels as stop-loss reference points
Approach signals outside Kill Zone hours with caution
Recommended to use alongside other technical analysis tools
💡 Trading Strategies
Silver Bullet Strategy
Preparation Phase: Monitor charts 30 minutes before Kill Zone
Sweep Observation: Identify liquidity hunting points with 🔻🔺 labels (reference only)
Entry: Enter ONLY when huge triangle Silver Bullet signal appears within Kill Zone
Take Profit: Target opposite structural level or 1:2 reward ratio
Stop Loss: Beyond the swept level
Important: Small sweep labels are NOT trading signals!
Multi-Timeframe Approach
Step 1: HTF (Higher Time Frame) Sweep Reference
Observe 🔻🔺 sweep labels on 4-hour and daily charts
Reference only sweeps occurring at major structural levels
HTF sweeps are used to identify liquidity hunting points
Reference only, not for directional bias
Step 2: Transition to LTF (Lower Time Frame)
Move to 15-minute, 5-minute, and 1-minute charts
Analyze LTF with reference to HTF sweep information
Use STL, STH, ITL, ITH for precise entry point identification
Structural levels on LTF are the core of actual trading decisions
Only huge triangle (Silver Bullet) signals are actual entry signals
Recommended Usage
Identify overall sweep occurrence points on HTF (🔻🔺 labels)
Use this indicator on LTF to identify structural levels
Reference only huge triangle signals for actual trading during Kill Zone
Small sweep labels (🔻🔺) are for reference only, not entry signals
📋 Information Table Interpretation
Real-time information in the top-right table:
Kill Zone Status: Current active session status
Level Counts: Number of each structural level type
⚠️ Important Disclaimers
Backtesting results do not guarantee future performance
Exercise caution during high market volatility periods
Always apply proper risk management
Recommend comprehensive analysis with other analytical tools
🎓 Learning Resources
Study original ICT concepts through free YouTube educational content
Research Market Structure analysis techniques
Optimize through backtesting for personal use
🔬 Technical Implementation
Algorithm Logic
Pivot Point Detection: Uses TradingView's built-in pivot functions to identify swing highs and lows
Classification System: Automatically categorizes levels based on recent price action frequency
Sweep Validation: Confirms legitimate sweeps through price action analysis
Time-Based Filtering: Prioritizes signals during institutional active hours
Performance Optimization
Efficient array management prevents memory overflow
Dynamic level cleanup maintains chart clarity
Real-time calculation ensures minimal lag
🛠️ Customization Tips
Adjust lookback periods based on market volatility
Modify kill zone times for different market sessions
Experiment with sweep threshold for different instruments
Color-code levels according to personal preference
📈 Expected Outcomes
When properly implemented, this indicator can help traders:
Identify high-probability reversal points
Time entries with institutional flow
Reduce false signals through kill zone filtering
Improve risk-to-reward ratios
This indicator automates ICT's concepts into a user-friendly tool that can be enhanced through continuous learning and practical application. Success depends on understanding the underlying market structure principles and combining them with proper risk management techniques.
Institutional Session VWAP Bands (Zeiierman)█ Overview
Institutional Session VWAP Bands (Zeiierman) plots a clean, session-aware VWAP that restarts at the “True Close” (end of the first trading hour) for each session you enable (Sydney, Tokyo, London, New York). From that anchor, the script computes a classic volume-weighted average price plus optional standard-deviation bands to frame session fair value and dispersion.
By aligning VWAP to when institutional flows settle (the first hour), you get a reference that matches real execution behavior, yielding more credible pullbacks, retests, and mean-reversion reads inside each session.
█ How It Works
⚪ Session Detection
You choose the sessions (on/off), their UTC-aligned time windows, and colors. The script detects when each session is active on your chart timeframe.
⚪ True-Close Anchoring
At session open the indicator waits. When the first hour completes, it flips the anchor on and starts a fresh VWAP for that session, mirroring how many desks treat the first hour as the real close for the prior day’s positioning.
⚪ VWAP Core
From the true-close anchor, VWAP is calculated in the standard way: cumulative (price × volume) / cumulative volume using your chosen price source (default hlc3).
⚪ VWAP Bands (σ)
Upper/Lower bands are built using a running standard deviation of the price source since the anchor. You control the σ multiplier and line width, and you can optionally fill between the bands.
█ Why Sessions + True-Close Anchoring
⚪ Institutional Timing Matters
A new anchor at the first-hour close reflects where real flows have settled, giving you a session fair-value line that aligns with how many funds evaluate prices intraday.
⚪ Cleaner Session Reads
Because VWAP and σ-bands restart each session, your retests, squeezes, and mean-reversion signals are based on today’s order-flow context, not yesterday’s inertia.
Result: a session-true fair-value with dispersion bands that stay close to the action, improving the quality of pullback entries and risk framing.
█ How to Use
⚪ Session Fair-Value Guide
Treat VWAP as the magnet for intraday value. Impulsive moves away from VWAP that fold back often present retest opportunities.
⚪ σ-Band Reversion & Breaks
Reversion: Tests beyond the upper/lower band that snap back inside can flag exhaustion.
Trend: Price riding the VWAP band in a strong trend
⚪ Session Handoffs
When one session hands to the next, watch how price behaves around the new session’s VWAP Bands after its anchor triggers. Continuation through the new VWAP vs. rejection often sets the tone.
█ Settings
UTC: Choose the timezone used to evaluate session windows (e.g., UTC+2).
Sessions (Sydney, Tokyo, London, New York): Toggle visibility and define each HHMM-HHMM window.
VWAP Price: Source for weighting.
Band Multiplier (σ): Standard deviation multiplier.
█ Related publications
True Close – Institutional Trading Sessions (Zeiierman)
-----------------
Disclaimer
The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
BTCUSD Daily Nexus Protocol Robot [AlgoChadLin]The BTCUSD Daily Nexus Protocol Robot is a sophisticated, multi-faceted trading system designed for the Bitcoin Daily (D1) timeframe . It operates by integrating a diverse set of technical indicators to form a robust, rule-based trading protocol. This strategy focuses on identifying high-conviction trade setups and managing them with precision.
Strategy Logic
Entry Confirmation: The strategy uses a powerful combination of multiple indicators. Entry signals are confirmed when the closing price moves relative to the VWAP, indicating a shift in momentum.
Targeted Entries: To pinpoint optimal entry points, the system utilizes Keltner Channels and Average True Range (ATR). A long entry is placed as a limit order above the upper Keltner Channel, while a short entry is set below the lower channel.
Dynamic Exits: Risk and reward are managed through a dual-layered exit approach. The strategy uses a dynamic SuperTrend value and ATR to set a trailing stop-loss, protecting capital and locking in profits. Additionally, a time-based exit and an Ichimoku signal provide alternative exit conditions to ensure positions are closed under specific market circumstances.
Parameters
VWAP Period: Defines the lookback period for the VWAP indicator.
Keltner Channel Period: Sets the period for the Keltner Channel, which helps define entry levels.
Entry ATR Multiplier: Adjusts the distance of the limit order from the Keltner Channel.
Stop-Loss ATR Period & Multiplier: Configures the dynamic stop-loss based on the SuperTrend and ATR.
Exit After Bars: Specifies the maximum duration a trade can be open.
Pending
Order Valid Bars: Determines how long a pending order remains active.
Setup
Timeframe: Daily (D1)
Asset: BTCUSD (Not BTCUSDT. If you want to trade BTCUSDT you have to modify the parameters.)
Twin Range Filter StrategyClarity Over Confusion: See price action through a全新的 lens. Watch as erratic, choppy movements are smoothed into a clear, actionable trajectory. The path of least resistance becomes obvious.
Confidence Over Hesitation: Receive high-probability entry and exit signals with a proven logic that waits for the market to commit before you do. No more second-guessing.
Discipline Over Emotion: Our algorithm enforces a systematic approach, helping you avoid emotional FOMO chasing and panic selling. Stick to the plan and execute with precision.
What Can You Expect?
Dynamic Adaptability: Unlike static indicators, continuously adapts to volatility. It widens its filter in turbulent markets to avoid whipsaws and tightens it in trending markets to capture more of the move.
The Power of Two: By synthesizing data from two distinct market perspectives, it confirms strength and filters out weakness, providing a confluence that standalone indicators simply cannot match.
Clean, Unambiguous Signals: We’ve eliminated the clutter. The software provides clear visual alerts (Green Arrows for Long, Red Arrows for Short) right on your chart, telling you exactly when the equilibrium has shifted.
Who is this for?
Swing Traders looking to capture the heart of a trend and avoid false breakouts.
Day Traders needing a reliable filter to navigate volatile intraday action.
Systematic Traders seeking a robust logic layer to add to their automated strategy.
Anyone overwhelmed by indicator overload and craving a single, trusted source of truth on their chart
Script_Algo - ORB Strategy with Filters🔍 Core Concept: This strategy combines three powerful technical analysis tools: Range Breakout, the SuperTrend indicator, and a volume filter. Additionally, it features precise customization of the number of candles used to construct the breakout range, enabling optimized performance for specific assets.
🎯 How It Works:
The strategy defines a trading range at the beginning of the trading session based on a selected number of candles.
It waits for a breakout above the upper or below the lower boundary of this range, requiring a candle close.
It filters signals using the SuperTrend indicator for trend confirmation.
It utilizes trading volume to filter out false breakouts.
⚡ Strategy Features
📈 Entry Points:
Long: Candle close above the upper range boundary + SuperTrend confirmation
Short: Candle close below the lower range boundary + SuperTrend confirmation
🛡️ Risk Management:
Stop-Loss: Set at the opposite range boundary.
Take-Profit: Calculated based on a risk/reward ratio (3:1 by default).
Position Size: 10 contracts (configurable).
⚠️ IMPORTANT SETTINGS
🕐 Time Parameters:
Set the correct time and time zone!
❕ATTENTION: The strategy works ONLY with correct time settings! Set the time corresponding to your location and trading session.
📊 This strategy is optimized for trading TESLA stock!
Parameters are tailored to TESLA's volatility, and trading volumes are adequate for signal filtering. Trading time corresponds to the American session.
📈 If you look at the backtesting results, you can see that the strategy could potentially have generated about 70 percent profit on Tesla stock over six months on 5m timeframe. However, this does not guarantee that results will be repeated in the future; remain vigilant.
⚠️ For other assets, the following is required:
Testing and parameter optimization
Adjustment of time intervals and the number of candles forming the range
Calibration of stop-loss and take-profit levels
⚠️ Limitations and Drawbacks
🔗 Automation Constraints:
❌ Cannot be directly connected via Webhook to CFD brokers!
Additional IT solutions are required for automation, thus only manual trading based on signals is possible.
📉 Risk Management:
Do not risk more than 2-3% of your account per trade.
Test on historical data before live use.
Start with a demo account.
💪 Strategy Advantages
✅ Combined approach – multiple signal filters
✅ Clear entry and exit rules
✅ Visual signals on the chart
✅ Volume-based false breakout filtering
✅ Automatic position management
🎯 Usage Recommendations
Always test the strategy on historical data.
Start with small trading volumes.
Ensure time settings are correct.
Adapt parameters to current market volatility.
Use only for stocks – futures and Forex require adaptation.
📚 Suitable Timeframes - M1-M15
Only highly liquid stocks
🍀 I wish all subscribers good luck in trading and steady profits!
📈 May your charts move in the right direction!
⚠️ Remember: Trading involves risk. Do not invest money you cannot afford to lose!
Essa - Market Structure Crystal Ball SystemEssa - Market Structure Crystal Ball V2.0
Ever wished you had a glimpse into the market's next move? Stop guessing and start anticipating with the Market Structure Crystal Ball!
This isn't just another indicator that tells you what has happened. This is a comprehensive analysis tool that learns from historical price action to forecast the most probable future structure. It combines advanced pattern recognition with essential trading concepts to give you a unique analytical edge.
Key Features
The Predictive Engine (The Crystal Ball)
This is the core of the indicator. It doesn't just identify market structure; it predicts it.
Know the Odds: Get a real-time probability score (%) for the next structural point: Higher High (HH), Higher Low (HL), Lower Low (LL), or Lower High (LH).
Advanced Analysis: The engine considers the pattern sequence, the speed (velocity) of the move, and its size to find the most accurate historical matches.
Dynamic Learning: The indicator constantly updates its analysis as new price data comes in.
The All-in-One Dashboard
Your command center for at-a-glance information. No need to clutter your screen!
Market Phase: Instantly know if the market is in a "🚀 Strong Uptrend," "📉 Steady Downtrend," or "↔️ Consolidation."
Live Probabilities: See the updated forecasts for HH, HL, LL, and LH in a clean, easy-to-read format.
Confidence Level: The dashboard tells you how confident the algorithm is in its current prediction (Low, Medium, or High).
🎯 Dynamic Prediction Zones
Turn probabilities into actionable price areas.
Visual Targets: Based on the highest probability outcome, the indicator draws a target zone on your chart where the next structure point is likely to form.
Context-Aware: These zones are calculated using recent volatility and average swing sizes, making them adaptive to the current market conditions.
🔍 Fair Value Gap (FVG) Detector
Automatically identify and track key price imbalances.
Price Magnets: FVGs are automatically detected and drawn, acting as potential targets for price.
Smart Tracking: The indicator tracks the status of each FVG (Fresh, Partially Filled, or Filled) and uses this data to refine its predictions.
🌍 Trading Session Analysis
Never lose track of key session levels again.
Visualize Sessions: See the Asia, London, and New York sessions highlighted with colored backgrounds.
Key Levels: Automatically plots the high and low of each session, which are often critical support and resistance levels.
Breakout Alerts: Get notified when price breaks a session high or low.
📈 Multi-Timeframe (MTF) Context
Understand the bigger picture by integrating higher timeframe analysis directly onto your chart.
BOS & MSS: Automatically identifies Breaks of Structure (trend continuation) and Market Structure Shifts (potential reversals) from up to two higher timeframes.
Trade with the Trend: Align your intraday trades with the dominant trend for higher probability setups.
⚙️ How It Works in Simple Terms
1️⃣ It Learns: The indicator first identifies all the past swing points (HH, HL, LL, LH) and analyzes their characteristics (speed, size, etc.).
2️⃣ It Finds a Match: It looks at the most recent price action and searches through hundreds of historical bars to find moments that were almost identical.
3️⃣ It Analyzes the Outcome: It checks what happened next in those similar historical scenarios.
4️⃣ It Predicts: Based on that historical data, it calculates the probability of each potential outcome and presents it to you.
🚀 How to Use This Indicator in Your Trading
Confirmation Tool: Use a high probability score (e.g., >60% for a HH) to confirm your own bullish analysis before entering a trade.
Finding High-Probability Zones: Use the Prediction Zones as potential areas to take profit, or as reversal zones to watch for entries in the opposite direction.
Gauging Market Sentiment: Check the "Market Phase" on the dashboard. Avoid forcing trades when the indicator shows "😴 Low Volatility."
Confluence is Key: This indicator is incredibly powerful when combined with your existing strategy. Use it alongside supply/demand zones, moving averages, or RSI for ultimate confirmation.
We hope this tool gives you a powerful new perspective on the market. Dive into the settings to customize it to your liking!
If you find this indicator helpful, please give it a Boost 👍 and leave a comment with your feedback below! Happy trading!
Disclaimer: All predictions are probabilistic and based on historical data. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always use proper risk management.
Script_Algo - Fibo Correction Strategy🔹 Core Concept
The strategy is built on combining Fibonacci retracement levels, candlestick pattern confirmation, and trend filtering for trade selection. It performs well on the 1-hour timeframe across many cryptocurrency pairs. Particularly on LINKUSDT over the past year and a half, despite the not very optimal 1:1 risk/reward ratio.
The logic is simple: after a strong impulse move, the price often retraces to key Fibonacci levels (specifically, the 61.8% level). If a confirming candlestick (pattern) appears at this moment, the strategy looks for an entry in the direction of the main trend.
🔹 Indicators Used in the Strategy
ATR (Average True Range) — Used to calculate the stop-loss and take-profit levels.
EMA (9 and 21) — Additional moving averages for assessing the direction of movement (not directly used in entry conditions, but the logic can be expanded to include them).
SMA (Trend Filter, 20 by default) — The trend direction filter. Trades are only opened in its direction.
Fibonacci Levels — The 61.8% retracement level is calculated based on the high and low of the previous candle.
🔹 Entry Conditions
🟢 Long (Buy):
Previous Candle:
Must be green (close higher than open).
Must have a body not smaller than a specified minimum.
The upper wick must not exceed 30% of the body size.
→ This filters out "weak" or "indecisive" candles.
Current Candle:
Price touches or breaches the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level from the previous range.
Closes above this level.
Closes above the Trend Filter (SMA) line.
A position is opened only if there are no other open trades at the moment.
🔴 Short (Sell):
Previous Candle:
Must be red (close lower than open).
Must have a body not smaller than a specified minimum.
The lower wick must not exceed 30% of the body size.
Current Candle:
Price touches or breaches the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level from the previous range.
Closes below this level.
Closes below the Trend Filter (SMA) line.
A trade is opened only if there are no other open positions.
🔹 Risk Management
Stop-Loss = ATR × multiplier (default is 5).
Take-Profit = ATR × the same multiplier.
Thus, the default risk/reward ratio is 1:1, but it can be easily adjusted by changing the coefficient. Although, strangely enough, this ratio has shown the best results on some assets on the 1-hour timeframe.
🔹 Chart Visualization
Fibonacci level for Long — Green line with circles.
Fibonacci level for Short — Red line with circles.
Trend Filter line (SMA) — Blue.
🔹 Strengths of the Strategy
✅ Utilizes a proven market pattern — retracement to the 61.8% level.
✅ Further filters entries using trend and candlestick patterns.
✅ Simple, transparent logic that is easy to expand (e.g., adding other Fib levels, an EMA filter, etc.).
🔹 Limitations
⚠️ Performs better in trending markets; can generate false signals during ranging (sideways) conditions.
⚠️ The fixed 1:1 risk/reward ratio is not always optimal and could be refined.
⚠️ Performance depends on the selected timeframe and ATR parameters.
📌 Summary:
The strategy seeks corrective entries in the direction of the trend, confirmed by candlestick patterns. It is versatile and can be applied to forex pairs, cryptocurrencies, and stocks.
⚠️ Not financial advice. Pay close attention to risk management to avoid blowing your account. The strategy is not repainting — I have personally verified it through real testing — but it may not necessarily replicate the same results in the future, as the market is constantly changing. Test it, profit, and good luck to everyone!
Sabina's TRAMA Crossover MTF📊 Sabina's TRAMA Crossover MTF
Trend Regularity Adaptive Moving Average (TRAMA) is a dynamic smoothing algorithm that adjusts based on trend consistency. Unlike traditional moving averages like EMA or SMA, TRAMA speeds up in strong trends and slows down during consolidation, reducing noise and lag.
This script plots two TRAMA lines (short and long) and dynamically colors them based on crossover direction:
🟢 Green: Bullish crossover (short TRAMA crosses above long TRAMA)
🔴 Red: Bearish crossover (short TRAMA crosses below long TRAMA)
✅ Multi-Timeframe Enabled
You can run the indicator on your current chart while calculating TRAMA from any higher or lower timeframe. This gives you flexibility to track trend strength across different contexts.
Use cases:
Trend-following entries with adaptive confirmation
Scalping with higher-timeframe filters
Visual clarity of market regime (consolidation vs expansion)
FlowStateTrader FlowState Trader - Advanced Time-Filtered Strategy
## Overview
FlowState Trader is a sophisticated algorithmic trading strategy that combines precision entry signals with intelligent time-based filtering and adaptive risk management. Built for traders seeking to achieve their optimal performance state, FlowState identifies high-probability trading opportunities within user-defined time windows while employing dynamic trailing stops and partial position management.
## Core Strategy Philosophy
FlowState Trader operates on the principle that peak trading performance occurs when three elements align: **Focus** (precise entry signals), **Flow** (optimal time windows), and **State** (intelligent position management). This strategy excels at finding reversal opportunities at key support and resistance levels while filtering out suboptimal trading periods to keep traders in their optimal flow state.
## Key Features
### 🎯 Focus Entry System
**Support/Resistance Zone Trading**:
- Dynamic identification of key price levels using configurable lookback periods
- Entry signals triggered when price interacts with these critical zones
- Volume confirmation ensures genuine breakout/reversal momentum
- Trend filter alignment prevents counter-trend disasters
**Entry Conditions**:
- **Long Signals**: Price closes above support buffer, touches support level, with above-average volume
- **Short Signals**: Price closes below resistance buffer, touches resistance level, with above-average volume
- Optional trend filter using EMA or SMA for directional bias confirmation
### ⏰ FlowState Time Filtering System
**Comprehensive Time Controls**:
- **12-Hour Format Trading Windows**: User-friendly AM/PM time selection
- **Multi-Timezone Support**: UTC, EST, PST, CST with automatic conversion
- **Day-of-Week Filtering**: Trade only weekdays, weekends, or both
- **Lunch Hour Avoidance**: Automatically skips low-volume lunch periods (12-1 PM)
- **Visual Time Indicators**: Background coloring shows active/inactive trading periods
**Smart Time Features**:
- Handles overnight trading sessions seamlessly
- Prevents trades during historically poor performance periods
- Customizable trading hours for different market sessions
- Real-time trading window status in dashboard
### 🛡️ Adaptive Risk Management
**Multi-Level Take Profit System**:
- **TP1**: First profit target with optional partial position closure
- **TP2**: Final profit target for remaining position
- **Flexible Scaling**: Choose number of contracts to close at each level
**Dynamic Trailing Stop Technology**:
- **Three Operating Modes**:
- **Conservative**: Earlier activation, tighter trailing (protect profits)
- **Balanced**: Optimal risk/reward balance (recommended)
- **Aggressive**: Later activation, wider trailing (let winners run)
- **ATR-Based Calculations**: Adapts to current market volatility
- **Automatic Activation**: Engages when position reaches profitability threshold
### 📊 Intelligent Position Sizing
**Contract-Based Management**:
- Configurable entry quantity (1-1000 contracts)
- Partial close quantities for profit-taking
- Clear position tracking and P&L monitoring
- Real-time position status updates
### 🎨 Professional Visualization
**Enhanced Chart Elements**:
- **Entry Zone Highlighting**: Clear visual identification of trading opportunities
- **Dynamic Risk/Reward Lines**: Real-time TP and SL levels with price labels
- **Trailing Stop Visualization**: Live tracking of adaptive stop levels
- **Support/Resistance Lines**: Key level identification
- **Time Window Background**: Visual confirmation of active trading periods
**Dual Dashboard System**:
- **Strategy Dashboard**: Real-time position info, settings status, and current levels
- **Performance Scorecard**: Live P&L tracking, win rates, and trade statistics
- **Customizable Sizing**: Small, Medium, or Large display options
### ⚙️ Comprehensive Customization
**Core Strategy Settings**:
- **Lookback Period**: Support/resistance calculation period (5-100 bars)
- **ATR Configuration**: Period and multipliers for stops/targets
- **Reward-to-Risk Ratios**: Customizable profit target calculations
- **Trend Filter Options**: EMA/SMA selection with adjustable periods
**Time Filter Controls**:
- **Trading Hours**: Start/end times in 12-hour format
- **Timezone Selection**: Four major timezone options
- **Day Restrictions**: Weekend-only, weekday-only, or unrestricted
- **Session Management**: Lunch hour avoidance and custom periods
**Risk Management Options**:
- **Trailing Stop Modes**: Conservative/Balanced/Aggressive presets
- **Partial Close Settings**: Enable/disable with custom quantities
- **Alert System**: Comprehensive notifications for all trade events
### 📈 Performance Tracking
**Real-Time Metrics**:
- Net profit/loss calculation
- Win rate percentage
- Profit factor analysis
- Maximum drawdown tracking
- Total trade count and breakdown
- Current position P&L
**Trade Analytics**:
- Winner/loser ratio tracking
- Real-time performance scorecard
- Strategy effectiveness monitoring
- Risk-adjusted return metrics
### 🔔 Alert System
**Comprehensive Notifications**:
- Entry signal alerts with price and quantity
- Take profit level hits (TP1 and TP2)
- Stop loss activations
- Trailing stop engagements
- Position closure notifications
## Strategy Logic Deep Dive
### Entry Signal Generation
The strategy identifies high-probability reversal points by combining multiple confirmation factors:
1. **Price Action**: Looks for price interaction with key support/resistance levels
2. **Volume Confirmation**: Ensures sufficient market interest and liquidity
3. **Trend Alignment**: Optional filter prevents counter-trend positions
4. **Time Validation**: Only trades during user-defined optimal periods
5. **Zone Analysis**: Entry occurs within calculated buffer zones around key levels
### Risk Management Philosophy
FlowState Trader employs a three-tier risk management approach:
1. **Initial Protection**: ATR-based stop losses set at strategy entry
2. **Profit Preservation**: Trailing stops activate once position becomes profitable
3. **Scaled Exit**: Partial profit-taking allows for both security and potential
### Time-Based Edge
The time filtering system recognizes that not all trading hours are equal:
- Avoids low-volume, high-spread periods
- Focuses on optimal liquidity windows
- Prevents trading during news events (lunch hours)
- Allows customization for different market sessions
## Best Practices and Optimization
### Recommended Settings
**For Scalping (1-5 minute charts)**:
- Lookback Period: 10-20
- ATR Period: 14
- Trailing Stop: Conservative mode
- Time Filter: Major session hours only
**For Day Trading (15-60 minute charts)**:
- Lookback Period: 20-30
- ATR Period: 14-21
- Trailing Stop: Balanced mode
- Time Filter: Extended trading hours
**For Swing Trading (4H+ charts)**:
- Lookback Period: 30-50
- ATR Period: 21+
- Trailing Stop: Aggressive mode
- Time Filter: Disabled or very broad
### Market Compatibility
- **Forex**: Excellent for major pairs during active sessions
- **Stocks**: Ideal for liquid stocks during market hours
- **Futures**: Perfect for index and commodity futures
- **Crypto**: Effective on major cryptocurrencies (24/7 capability)
### Risk Considerations
- **Market Conditions**: Performance varies with volatility regimes
- **Timeframe Selection**: Lower timeframes require tighter risk management
- **Position Sizing**: Never risk more than 1-2% of account per trade
- **Backtesting**: Always test on historical data before live implementation
## Educational Value
FlowState serves as an excellent learning tool for:
- Understanding support/resistance trading
- Learning proper time-based filtering
- Mastering trailing stop techniques
- Developing systematic trading approaches
- Risk management best practices
## Disclaimer
This strategy is for educational and informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Users should thoroughly backtest the strategy and understand all risks before live trading. Always use proper position sizing and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
---
*FlowState Trader represents the evolution of systematic trading - combining classical technical analysis with modern risk management and intelligent time filtering to help traders achieve their optimal performance state through systematic, disciplined execution.*
ADVANCED COSINE PROJECTION SYSTEM — LITE Mark3ACPS-Lite is a projection-based tool designed to visualize potential price paths using cosine-based similarity and stability analysis.
so, i have been working over multiple iterations to have a stable projection based on cosine principles and I've settled with a few stable algorithmic frameworks which works as: what i like to call : next generation leading indicators.
This indicator works well with any charting type like line/bar/candles etc. across ALL timeframes. (including seconds).
Basically this indicator projects a path towards the right.
Based on the trend the color of the projection updates on live refresh (depends on your timeframe of choice)
GREEN path projection for possible up trend
RED for bearish and yellow for sideways trend.
Technical : This indicator Aims to solve "DIRECTION" .
The idea was to to calculate angle between any given vectors : so if we translate it into the trading world : we are trying to determine direction (simplified explanation).
Pros : Scale Independent
meaning factors like flash crash , High impact movements (like NFP's) dont impact the projection logic in terms of Magnitude.
My model focuses on pattern similarity
example : in the previous instance of similar situation how did price react ?
therefore making a similar "COSINE" projection. (based on past "vector"/event)
on the left side there will always be an highlighted box section to visually represent where the future projections are based off of.
Cons: multiple vectors can have same direction from the cosine logic : essentially rendering the projected distance inconclusive.
but i solved that problem fully but on this lite version i made use of live refresh feature to keep the projections on a float : making our right side projections that much more fluid.
finally as a psychological factor not to get caught up on any Bias i made sure the indicator switches color according to immediate trend change logi.
Best Use case : have this indicator across multiple timeframes inside Tradingvieews tabs to Help make better Judgement.
I'm open for feedback / suggestions.
regards,
drsamc.
Order Blocks + Order-Flow ProxiesOrder Blocks + Order-Flow Proxies
This indicator combines structural analysis of order blocks with lightweight order-flow style proxies, providing a tool for chart annotation and contextual study. It is designed to help users visualize where significant structural shifts occur and how simple volume-based signals behave around those areas. The script does not guarantee profitable outcomes, nor does it issue financial advice. It is intended purely for research, learning, and discretionary use.
Conceptual Background
Order Blocks
An “order block” is a term often used to describe a zone on the chart where price left behind a significant reversal or imbalance before continuing strongly in the opposite direction. In practice, this can mean the last bullish or bearish candle before a strong breakout. Traders sometimes study these regions because they believe that unfilled resting orders may exist there, or simply because they mark important pivots in price structure. This indicator detects such moments by scanning for breaks of structure (BOS). When price pushes above or below recent swing levels with sufficient displacement, the script identifies the prior opposite candle as the potential order block.
Break of Structure
A break of structure in this context is defined when the closing price moves beyond the highest high or lowest low of a short lookback window. The script compares the magnitude of this break to an ATR-based displacement filter. This helps ensure that only meaningful moves are marked rather than small, random fluctuations.
Order-Flow Proxies
Traditional order flow analysis may use bid/ask data, footprint charts, or volume profiles. Because TradingView scripts cannot access true order-book data, this indicator instead uses proxy signals derived from standard chart data:
Delta (proxy): Estimated imbalance of buying vs. selling pressure, approximated using bar direction and volume.
Imbalance ratio: Normalizes delta by total volume, ranging between -1 and +1 in theory.
Cumulative Delta (CVD): Running sum of delta over time.
Effort vs. Result (EvR): A comparison between volume and actual bar movement, highlighting cases where large effort produced little result (or vice versa).
These are not real order-flow measurements, but rather simple mathematical constructs that mimic some of its logic.
How the Script Works
Detecting Break of Structure
The user specifies a swing length. When price closes above the recent high (for bullish BOS) or below the recent low (for bearish BOS), a potential shift is recorded.
To qualify, the breakout must exceed a displacement filter proportional to the ATR. This helps filter out weak moves.
Locating the Order Block Candle
Once a BOS is confirmed, the script looks back within a short window to find the last opposite-colored candle.
The high/low or open/close of that candle (depending on user settings) is marked as the potential order block zone.
Drawing and Maintaining Zones
Each order block is represented as a colored rectangle extending forward in time.
Bullish zones are teal by default, bearish zones are red.
Zones extend until invalidated (price closing or wicking beyond them, depending on user preference) or until a user-defined lifespan expires.
A pruning mechanism ensures that only the most recent set number of zones remain, preventing chart overload.
Monitoring Touches
The script checks whether the current bar’s range overlaps any existing order block.
If so, the “closest” zone is considered touched, and a label may appear on the chart.
Confirmation Filters
Touches can optionally be confirmed by order-flow proxies.
For a bullish confirmation, the following must align:
Imbalance ratio above threshold,
Delta EMA positive,
Effort vs. Result positive.
For a bearish confirmation, the opposite holds true.
Optionally, a higher-timeframe EMA slope filter can gate these confirmations. For example, a bullish confirmation may only be accepted if the higher-timeframe EMA is sloping upward.
Alerts
Users may create alerts based on conditions such as “bullish touch confirmed” or “bearish touch confirmed.”
Alerts can be gated to only fire after bar close, reducing intrabar noise.
Standard alertcondition calls are provided, and optional inline alert() calls can be enabled.
Inputs and Customization
Structure & OB
Swing length: Defines how many bars back to check for BOS.
ATR length & displacement factor: Adjust sensitivity for structural breaks.
Body vs. wick reference: Choose whether zones are based on candle bodies or full ranges.
Invalidation rule: Pick between wick breach or close beyond the level.
Lifespan (bars): Limit how long a zone remains active.
Max keep: Cap the number of zones stored to reduce clutter.
Order-Flow Proxies
Delta mode: Choose between “Close vs Previous Close” or “Body” for delta calculation.
EMA length: Smooths the delta/imbalance series.
Z-score lookback: Defines the averaging window for EvR.
Confirmation thresholds: Adjust the imbalance levels required for long/short confirmation.
Higher Timeframe Filter
Enable HTF gate: Optional filter requiring higher-timeframe EMA slope alignment.
HTF timeframe & EMA length: Configurable for context alignment.
Style
Colors and transparency for bullish and bearish zones.
Border color customization.
Alerts
Enable inline alerts: Optional direct calls to alert().
Alerts on bar close only: Helps avoid multiple firings during bar formation.
Practical Use
This tool is best seen as a way to annotate charts and to study how simple volume-derived signals behave near important structural levels. Some users may:
Observe whether order blocks line up with later price reactions.
Study how imbalance or cumulative delta conditions align with these zones.
Use it in a discretionary workflow to highlight areas of interest for deeper analysis.
Because the proxies are based only on candle OHLCV data, they are approximations. They cannot replace true depth-of-market analysis. Similarly, order block detection here is one specific algorithmic interpretation; other traders may define order blocks differently.
Limitations and Disclaimers
This indicator does not predict future price movement.
It does not access real order book or tick-by-tick data. All signals are derived from bar OHLCV.
Past performance of signals or zones does not guarantee future results.
The script is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice.
Users should test thoroughly, adjust parameters to their own instruments and timeframes, and use it in combination with broader analysis.
Summary
The Order Blocks + Order-Flow Proxies script is an experimental study tool that:
Detects potential order blocks using a displacement-filtered break of structure.
Marks these zones as boxes that persist until invalidation or expiry.
Provides lightweight order-flow-style proxies such as delta, imbalance, CVD, and effort vs. result.
Allows confirmation of zone touches through these proxies and optional higher-timeframe context.
Offers flexible customization, alerting, and chart-style options.
It is not a trading system by itself but rather a framework for studying price/volume behavior around structurally significant areas. With careful exploration, it can give users new ways to visualize market structure and to understand how simple flow-like measures behave in those contexts.
Order Blocks + Order-Flow ProxiesOrder Blocks + Order-Flow Proxies
This indicator combines structural analysis of order blocks with lightweight order-flow style proxies, providing a tool for chart annotation and contextual study. It is designed to help users visualize where significant structural shifts occur and how simple volume-based signals behave around those areas. The script does not guarantee profitable outcomes, nor does it issue financial advice. It is intended purely for research, learning, and discretionary use.
Conceptual Background
Order Blocks
An “order block” is a term often used to describe a zone on the chart where price left behind a significant reversal or imbalance before continuing strongly in the opposite direction. In practice, this can mean the last bullish or bearish candle before a strong breakout. Traders sometimes study these regions because they believe that unfilled resting orders may exist there, or simply because they mark important pivots in price structure. This indicator detects such moments by scanning for breaks of structure (BOS). When price pushes above or below recent swing levels with sufficient displacement, the script identifies the prior opposite candle as the potential order block.
Break of Structure
A break of structure in this context is defined when the closing price moves beyond the highest high or lowest low of a short lookback window. The script compares the magnitude of this break to an ATR-based displacement filter. This helps ensure that only meaningful moves are marked rather than small, random fluctuations.
Order-Flow Proxies
Traditional order flow analysis may use bid/ask data, footprint charts, or volume profiles. Because TradingView scripts cannot access true order-book data, this indicator instead uses proxy signals derived from standard chart data:
Delta (proxy): Estimated imbalance of buying vs. selling pressure, approximated using bar direction and volume.
Imbalance ratio: Normalizes delta by total volume, ranging between -1 and +1 in theory.
Cumulative Delta (CVD): Running sum of delta over time.
Effort vs. Result (EvR): A comparison between volume and actual bar movement, highlighting cases where large effort produced little result (or vice versa).
These are not real order-flow measurements, but rather simple mathematical constructs that mimic some of its logic.
How the Script Works
Detecting Break of Structure
The user specifies a swing length. When price closes above the recent high (for bullish BOS) or below the recent low (for bearish BOS), a potential shift is recorded.
To qualify, the breakout must exceed a displacement filter proportional to the ATR. This helps filter out weak moves.
Locating the Order Block Candle
Once a BOS is confirmed, the script looks back within a short window to find the last opposite-colored candle.
The high/low or open/close of that candle (depending on user settings) is marked as the potential order block zone.
Drawing and Maintaining Zones
Each order block is represented as a colored rectangle extending forward in time.
Bullish zones are teal by default, bearish zones are red.
Zones extend until invalidated (price closing or wicking beyond them, depending on user preference) or until a user-defined lifespan expires.
A pruning mechanism ensures that only the most recent set number of zones remain, preventing chart overload.
Monitoring Touches
The script checks whether the current bar’s range overlaps any existing order block.
If so, the “closest” zone is considered touched, and a label may appear on the chart.
Confirmation Filters
Touches can optionally be confirmed by order-flow proxies.
For a bullish confirmation, the following must align:
Imbalance ratio above threshold,
Delta EMA positive,
Effort vs. Result positive.
For a bearish confirmation, the opposite holds true.
Optionally, a higher-timeframe EMA slope filter can gate these confirmations. For example, a bullish confirmation may only be accepted if the higher-timeframe EMA is sloping upward.
Alerts
Users may create alerts based on conditions such as “bullish touch confirmed” or “bearish touch confirmed.”
Alerts can be gated to only fire after bar close, reducing intrabar noise.
Standard alertcondition calls are provided, and optional inline alert() calls can be enabled.
Inputs and Customization
Structure & OB
Swing length: Defines how many bars back to check for BOS.
ATR length & displacement factor: Adjust sensitivity for structural breaks.
Body vs. wick reference: Choose whether zones are based on candle bodies or full ranges.
Invalidation rule: Pick between wick breach or close beyond the level.
Lifespan (bars): Limit how long a zone remains active.
Max keep: Cap the number of zones stored to reduce clutter.
Order-Flow Proxies
Delta mode: Choose between “Close vs Previous Close” or “Body” for delta calculation.
EMA length: Smooths the delta/imbalance series.
Z-score lookback: Defines the averaging window for EvR.
Confirmation thresholds: Adjust the imbalance levels required for long/short confirmation.
Higher Timeframe Filter
Enable HTF gate: Optional filter requiring higher-timeframe EMA slope alignment.
HTF timeframe & EMA length: Configurable for context alignment.
Style
Colors and transparency for bullish and bearish zones.
Border color customization.
Alerts
Enable inline alerts: Optional direct calls to alert().
Alerts on bar close only: Helps avoid multiple firings during bar formation.
Practical Use
This tool is best seen as a way to annotate charts and to study how simple volume-derived signals behave near important structural levels. Some users may:
Observe whether order blocks line up with later price reactions.
Study how imbalance or cumulative delta conditions align with these zones.
Use it in a discretionary workflow to highlight areas of interest for deeper analysis.
Because the proxies are based only on candle OHLCV data, they are approximations. They cannot replace true depth-of-market analysis. Similarly, order block detection here is one specific algorithmic interpretation; other traders may define order blocks differently.
Limitations and Disclaimers
This indicator does not predict future price movement.
It does not access real order book or tick-by-tick data. All signals are derived from bar OHLCV.
Past performance of signals or zones does not guarantee future results.
The script is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice.
Users should test thoroughly, adjust parameters to their own instruments and timeframes, and use it in combination with broader analysis.
Summary
The Order Blocks + Order-Flow Proxies script is an experimental study tool that:
Detects potential order blocks using a displacement-filtered break of structure.
Marks these zones as boxes that persist until invalidation or expiry.
Provides lightweight order-flow-style proxies such as delta, imbalance, CVD, and effort vs. result.
Allows confirmation of zone touches through these proxies and optional higher-timeframe context.
Offers flexible customization, alerting, and chart-style options.
It is not a trading system by itself but rather a framework for studying price/volume behavior around structurally significant areas. With careful exploration, it can give users new ways to visualize market structure and to understand how simple flow-like measures behave in those contexts.
Kalman Filter (Smoothed)The Kalman Filter is a recursive statistical algorithm that smooths noisy price data while adapting dynamically to new information. Unlike simple moving averages or EMAs, it minimizes lag by balancing measurement noise (R) and process noise (Q), giving traders a clean, adaptive estimate of true price action.
🔹 Core Features
Real-time recursive estimation
Adjustable noise parameters (R = sensitivity to price, Q = smoothness vs. responsiveness)
Reduces market noise without heavy lag
Overlay on chart for direct comparison with raw price
🔹 Trading Applications
Smoother trend visualization compared to traditional MAs
Spotting true direction during volatile/sideways markets
Filtering out market “whipsaws” for cleaner signals
Building blocks for advanced quant/trading models
⚠️ Note: The Kalman Filter is a state-space model; it doesn’t predict future price, but smooths past and present data into a more reliable signal.
🌊 ALMA BandsTrend Architect Suite Lite - ALMA Bands - Adaptive Moving Average System
Simple implementation of ALMA (Arnaud Legoux Moving Average) bands from the Trend Architect Suite.
Why ALMA over Traditional EMA Bands?
Superior Smoothness: ALMA combines the best of both SMA and EMA by using Gaussian filters to reduce noise while maintaining responsiveness
Reduced Lag: The offset parameter allows fine-tuning between minimal lag and maximum smoothness
Advanced Weighting: Uses a sophisticated weighted algorithm that reduces false signals compared to traditional moving averages
Configurable Phase: The offset parameter (0-1) controls the phase shift, allowing you to balance between smoothness and responsiveness
Features:
Dual ALMA lines with customizable periods, offsets, and sigma values
Dynamic fill coloring (cyan for bullish, red for bearish trends)
Clean crossover alerts for trend changes
Fully customizable appearance and sensitivity
Settings:
Default configuration uses 20-period ALMAs with different offset values (0.85 vs 0.77)
All parameters are adjustable to fit your trading style
Use Case:
Trend-following system suitable for any timeframe. Best used in conjunction with other analysis for confirmation.
Elliott Wave Advanced Auto [CongTrader]🧾 INDICATOR DESCRIPTION
📌 Indicator: Elliott Wave Advanced Auto
Elliott Wave Advanced Auto is a professional automatic wave detection tool designed by CongTrader. It helps traders analyze market structure using Elliott Wave Theory, including:
📈 Automatic detection of impulsive waves (1-2-3-4-5)
🔷 Identification of triangle correction patterns (ABCDE)
⚠️ Detection of ending diagonal formations
🔮 Forecasting potential Wave 5 extension based on Fibonacci ratio
📊 Visually connecting waves with clean and clear lines
This indicator brings Elliott Wave analysis closer to all traders — whether beginner or advanced.
💡 How to Use It:
Add the indicator to your chart on TradingView.
Adjust Pivot Length to control the sensitivity of pivot detection.
Watch for wave labels (1 to 5 or A to E) appearing automatically on swing highs/lows.
Use signals to make trading decisions:
Wave 3 is often the strongest → possible entry point.
Wave 5 forecast gives a projected exit zone.
Ending Diagonal and Triangles warn of upcoming reversals.
Combine with other indicators (e.g., RSI, volume, support/resistance) for confirmation.
🎯 Features:
Automatic Elliott Wave labeling (1–5 / ABCDE)
Supports both bullish and bearish structures
Auto-line drawing between pivot points
Triangle pattern recognition (ABCDE)
Ending Diagonal pattern detection
Wave 5 forecast using 0.618 Fibonacci projection
Minimalist and clean layout, non-intrusive design
🙏 Credits & Thank You:
This indicator was developed by @CongTrader, a trader passionate about price action and algorithmic trading tools.
I hope this tool helps you improve your market timing and confidence in Elliott Wave analysis.
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⚠️ Disclaimer:
This script is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Use it with discretion and always validate with other tools.
You are responsible for your own trades. The author is not liable for any financial loss.#ElliottWave #WaveAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis
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Dual Volume Profiles: Session + Rolling (Range Delineation)Dual Volume Profiles: Session + Rolling (Range Delineation)
INTRO
This is a probability-centric take on volume profile. I treat the volume histogram as an empirical PDF over price, updated in real time, which makes multi-modality (multiple acceptance basins) explicit rather than assumed away. The immediate benefit is operational: if we can read the shape of the distribution, we can infer likely reversion levels (POC), acceptance boundaries (VAH/VAL), and low-friction corridors (LVNs).
My working hypothesis is that what traders often label “fat tails” or “power-law behavior” at short horizons is frequently a tail-conditioned view of a higher-level Gaussian regime. In other words, child distributions (shorter periodicities) sit within parent distributions (longer periodicities); when price operates in the parent’s tail, the child regime looks heavy-tailed without being fundamentally non-Gaussian. This is consistent with a hierarchical/mixture view and with the spirit of the central limit theorem—Gaussian structure emerges at aggregate scales, while local scales can look non-Gaussian due to nesting and conditioning.
This indicator operationalizes that view by plotting two nested empirical PDFs: a rolling (local) profile and a session-anchored profile. Their confluence makes ranges explicit and turns “regime” into something you can see. For additional nesting, run multiple instances with different lookbacks. When using the default settings combined with a separate daily VP, you effectively get three nested distributions (local → session → daily) on the chart.
This indicator plots two nested distributions side-by-side:
Rolling (Local) Profile — short-window, prorated histogram that “breathes” with price and maps the immediate auction.
Session Anchored Profile — cumulative distribution since the current session start (Premkt → RTH → AH anchoring), revealing the parent regime.
Use their confluence to identify range floors/ceilings, mean-reversion magnets, and low-volume “air pockets” for fast traverses.
What it shows
POC (dashed): central tendency / “magnet” (highest-volume bin).
VAH & VAL (solid): acceptance boundaries enclosing an exact Value Area % around each profile’s POC.
Volume histograms:
Rolling can auto-color by buy/sell dominance over the lookback (green = buying ≥ selling, red = selling > buying).
Session uses a fixed style (blue by default).
Session anchoring (exchange timezone):
Premarket → anchors at 00:00 (midnight).
RTH → anchors at 09:30.
After-hours → anchors at 16:00.
Session display span:
Session Max Span (bars) = 0 → draw from session start → now (anchored).
> 0 → draw a rolling window N bars back → now, while still measuring all volume since session start.
Why it’s useful
Think in terms of nested probability distributions: the rolling node is your local Gaussian; the session node is its parent.
VA↔VA overlap ≈ strong range boundary.
POC↔POC alignment ≈ reliable mean-reversion target.
LVNs (gaps) ≈ low-friction corridors—expect quick moves to the next node.
Quick start
Add to chart (great on 5–10s, 15–60s, 1–5m).
Start with: bins = 240, vaPct = 0.68, barsBack = 60.
Watch for:
First test & rejection at overlapping VALs/VAHs → fade back toward POC.
Acceptance beyond VA (several closes + growing outer-bin mass) → traverse to the next node.
Inputs (detailed)
General
Lookback Bars (Rolling)
Count of most-recent bars for the rolling/local histogram. Larger = smoother node that shifts slower; smaller = more reactive, “breathing” profile.
• Typical: 40–80 on 5–10s charts; 60–120 on 1–5m.
• If you increase this but keep Number of Bins fixed, each bin aggregates more volume (coarser bins).
Number of Bins
Vertical resolution (price buckets) for both rolling and session histograms. Higher = finer detail and crisper LVNs, but more line objects (closer to platform limits).
• Typical: 120–240 on 5–10s; 80–160 on 1–5m.
• If you hit performance or object limits, reduce this first.
Value Area %
Exact central coverage for VAH/VAL around POC. Computed empirically from the histogram (no Gaussian assumption): the algorithm expands from POC outward until the chosen % is enclosed.
• Common: 0.68 (≈“1σ-like”), 0.70 for slightly wider core.
• Smaller = tighter VA (more breakout flags). Larger = wider VA (more reversion bias).
Max Local Profile Width (px)
Horizontal length (in pixels) of the rolling bars/lines and its VA/POC overlays. Visual only (does not affect calculations).
Session Settings
RTH Start/End (exchange tz)
Defines the current session anchor (Premkt=00:00, RTH=your start, AH=your end). The session histogram always measures from the most recent session start and resets at each boundary.
Session Max Span (bars, 0 = full session)
Display window for session drawings (POC/VA/Histogram).
• 0 → draw from session start → now (anchored).
• > 0 → draw N bars back → now (rolling look), while still measuring all volume since session start.
This keeps the “parent” distribution measurable while letting the display track current action.
Local (Rolling) — Visibility
Show Local Profile Bars / POC / VAH & VAL
Toggle each overlay independently. If you approach object limits, disable bars first (POC/VA lines are lighter).
Local (Rolling) — Colors & Widths
Color by Buy/Sell Dominance
Fast uptick/downtick proxy over the rolling window (close vs open):
• Buying ≥ Selling → Bullish Color (default lime).
• Selling > Buying → Bearish Color (default red).
This color drives local bars, local POC, and local VA lines.
• Disable to use fixed Bars Color / POC Color / VA Lines Color.
Bars Transparency (0–100) — alpha for the local histogram (higher = lighter).
Bars Line Width (thickness) — draw thin-line profiles or chunky blocks.
POC Line Width / VA Lines Width — overlay thickness. POC is dashed, VAH/VAL solid by design.
Session — Visibility
Show Session Profile Bars / POC / VAH & VAL
Independent toggles for the session layer.
Session — Colors & Widths
Bars/POC/VA Colors & Line Widths
Fixed palette by design (default blue). These do not change with buy/sell dominance.
• Use transparency and width to make the parent profile prominent or subtle.
• Prefer minimal? Hide session bars; keep only session VA/POC.
Reading the signals (detailed playbook)
Core definitions
POC — highest-volume bin (fair price “magnet”).
VAH/VAL — upper/lower bounds enclosing your Value Area % around POC.
Node — contiguous block of high-volume bins (acceptance).
LVN — low-volume gap between nodes (low friction path).
Rejection vs Acceptance (practical rule)
Rejection at VA edge: 0–1 closes beyond VA and no persistent growth in outer bins.
Acceptance beyond VA: ≥3 closes beyond VA and outer-bin mass grows (e.g., added volume beyond the VA edge ≥ 5–10% of node volume over the last N bars). Treat acceptance as regime change.
Confluence scores (make boundary/target quality objective)
VA overlap strength (range boundary):
C_VA = 1 − |VA_edge_local − VA_edge_session| / ATR(n)
Values near 1.0 = tight overlap (stronger boundary).
Use: if C_VA ≥ 0.6–0.8, treat as high-quality fade zone.
POC alignment (magnet quality):
C_POC = 1 − |POC_local − POC_session| / ATR(n)
Higher C_POC = greater chance a rotation completes to that fair price.
(You can estimate these by eye.)
Setups
1) Range Fade at VA Confluence (mean reversion)
Context: Local VAL/VAH near Session VAL/VAH (tight overlap), clear node, local color not screaming trend (or flips to your side).
Entry: First test & rejection at the overlapped band (wick through ok; prefer close back inside).
Stop: A tick/pip beyond the wider of the two VA edges or beyond the nearest LVN, a small buffer zone can be used to judge whether price is truly rejecting a VAL/VAH or simply probing.
Targets: T1 node mid; T2 POC (size up when C_POC is high).
Flip: If acceptance (rule above) prints, flip bias or stand down.
2) LVN Traverse (continuation)
Context: Price exits VA and enters an LVN with acceptance and growing outer-bin volume.
Entry: Aggressive—first close into LVN; Conservative—retest of the VA edge from the far side (“kiss goodbye”).
Stop: Back inside the prior VA.
Targets: Next node’s VA edge or POC (edge = faster exits; POC = fuller rotations).
Note: Flatter VA edge (shallower curvature) tends to breach more easily.
3) POC→POC Magnet Trade (rotation completion)
Context: Local POC ≈ Session POC (high C_POC).
Entry: Fade a VA touch or pullback inside node, aiming toward the shared POC.
Stop: Past the opposite VA edge or LVN beyond.
Target: The shared POC; optional runner to opposite VA if the node is broad and time-of-day is supportive.
4) Failed Break (Reversion Snap-back)
Context: Push beyond VA fails acceptance (re-enters VA, outer-bin growth stalls/shrinks).
Entry: On the re-entry close, back toward POC.
Stop/Target: Stop just beyond the failed VA; target POC, then opposite VA if momentum persists.
How to read color & shape
Local color = most recent sentiment:
Green = buying ≥ selling; Red = selling > buying (over the rolling window). Treat as context, not a standalone signal. A green local node under a blue session VAH can still be a fade if the parent says “over-valued.”
Shape tells friction:
Fat nodes → rotation-friendly (fade edges).
Sharp LVN gaps → traversal-friendly (momentum continuation).
Time-of-day intuition
Right after session anchor (e.g., RTH 09:30): Session profile is young and moves quickly—treat confluence cautiously.
Mid-session: Cleanest behavior for rotations.
Close / news: Expect more traverses and POC migrations; tighten risk or switch playbooks.
Risk & execution guidance
Use tight, mechanical stops at/just beyond VA or LVN. If you need wide stops to survive noise, your entry is late or the node is unstable.
On micro-timeframes, account for fees & slippage—aim for targets paying ≥2–3× average cost.
If acceptance prints, don’t fight it—flip, reduce size, or stand aside.
Suggested presets
Scalp (5–10s): bins 120–240, barsBack 40–80, vaPct 0.68–0.70, local bars thin (small bar width).
Intraday (1–5m): bins 80–160, barsBack 60–120, vaPct 0.68–0.75, session bars more visible for parent context.
Performance & limits
Reuses line objects to stay under TradingView’s max_lines_count.
Very large bins × multiple overlays can still hit limits—use visibility toggles (hide bars first).
Session drawings use time-based coordinates to avoid “bar index too far” errors.
Known nuances
Rolling buy/sell dominance uses a simple uptick/downtick proxy (close vs open). It’s fast and practical, but it’s not a full tape classifier.
VA boundaries are computed from the empirical histogram—no Gaussian assumption.
This script does not calculate the full daily volume profile. Several other tools already provide that, including TradingView’s built-in Volume Profile indicators. Instead, this indicator focuses on pairing a rolling, short-term volume distribution with a session-wide distribution to make ranges more explicit. It is designed to supplement your use of standard or periodic volume profiles, not replace them. Think of it as a magnifying lens that helps you see where local structure aligns with the broader session.
How to trade it (TL;DR)
Fade overlapping VA bands on first rejection → target POC.
Continue through LVN on acceptance beyond VA → target next node’s VA/POC.
Respect acceptance: ≥3 closes beyond VA + growing outer-bin volume = regime change.
FAQ
Q: Why 68% Value Area?
A: It mirrors the “~1σ” idea, but we compute it exactly from empirical volume, not by assuming a normal distribution.
Q: Why are my profiles thin lines?
A: Increase Bars Line Width for chunkier blocks; reduce for fine, thin-line profiles.
Q: Session bars don’t reach session start—why?
A: Set Session Max Span (bars) = 0 for full anchoring; any positive value draws a rolling window while still measuring from session start.
Changelog (v1.0)
Dual profiles: Rolling + Session with independent POC/VA lines.
Session anchoring (Premkt/RTH/AH) with optional rolling display span.
Dynamic coloring for the rolling profile (buying vs selling).
Fully modular toggles + per-feature colors/widths.
Thin-line rendering via bar line width.
Ray Dalio's All Weather Strategy - Portfolio CalculatorTHE ALL WEATHER STRATEGY INDICATOR: A GUIDE TO RAY DALIO'S LEGENDARY PORTFOLIO APPROACH
Introduction: The Genesis of Financial Resilience
In the sprawling corridors of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund managing over 150 billion dollars in assets, Ray Dalio conceived what would become one of the most influential investment strategies of the modern era. The All Weather Strategy, born from decades of market observation and rigorous backtesting, represents a paradigm shift from traditional portfolio construction methods that have dominated Wall Street since Harry Markowitz's seminal work on Modern Portfolio Theory in 1952.
Unlike conventional approaches that chase returns through market timing or stock picking, the All Weather Strategy embraces a fundamental truth that has humbled countless investors throughout history: nobody can consistently predict the future direction of markets. Instead of fighting this uncertainty, Dalio's approach harnesses it, creating a portfolio designed to perform reasonably well across all economic environments, hence the evocative name "All Weather."
The strategy emerged from Bridgewater's extensive research into economic cycles and asset class behavior, culminating in what Dalio describes as "the Holy Grail of investing" in his bestselling book "Principles" (Dalio, 2017). This Holy Grail isn't about achieving spectacular returns, but rather about achieving consistent, risk-adjusted returns that compound steadily over time, much like the tortoise defeating the hare in Aesop's timeless fable.
HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION
The All Weather Strategy's origins trace back to the tumultuous economic periods of the 1970s and 1980s, when traditional portfolio construction methods proved inadequate for navigating simultaneous inflation and recession. Raymond Thomas Dalio, born in 1949 in Queens, New York, founded Bridgewater Associates from his Manhattan apartment in 1975, initially focusing on currency and fixed-income consulting for corporate clients.
Dalio's early experiences during the 1970s stagflation period profoundly shaped his investment philosophy. Unlike many of his contemporaries who viewed inflation and deflation as opposing forces, Dalio recognized that both conditions could coexist with either economic growth or contraction, creating four distinct economic environments rather than the traditional two-factor models that dominated academic finance.
The conceptual breakthrough came in the late 1980s when Dalio began systematically analyzing asset class performance across different economic regimes. Working with a small team of researchers, Bridgewater developed sophisticated models that decomposed economic conditions into growth and inflation components, then mapped historical asset class returns against these regimes. This research revealed that traditional portfolio construction, heavily weighted toward stocks and bonds, left investors vulnerable to specific economic scenarios.
The formal All Weather Strategy emerged in 1996 when Bridgewater was approached by a wealthy family seeking a portfolio that could protect their wealth across various economic conditions without requiring active management or market timing. Unlike Bridgewater's flagship Pure Alpha fund, which relied on active trading and leverage, the All Weather approach needed to be completely passive and unleveraged while still providing adequate diversification.
Dalio and his team spent months developing and testing various allocation schemes, ultimately settling on the 30/40/15/7.5/7.5 framework that balances risk contributions rather than dollar amounts. This approach was revolutionary because it focused on risk budgeting—ensuring that no single asset class dominated the portfolio's risk profile—rather than the traditional approach of equal dollar allocations or market-cap weighting.
The strategy's first institutional implementation began in 1996 with a family office client, followed by gradual expansion to other wealthy families and eventually institutional investors. By 2005, Bridgewater was managing over $15 billion in All Weather assets, making it one of the largest systematic strategy implementations in institutional investing.
The 2008 financial crisis provided the ultimate test of the All Weather methodology. While the S&P 500 declined by 37% and many hedge funds suffered double-digit losses, the All Weather strategy generated positive returns, validating Dalio's risk-balancing approach. This performance during extreme market stress attracted significant institutional attention, leading to rapid asset growth in subsequent years.
The strategy's theoretical foundations evolved throughout the 2000s as Bridgewater's research team, led by co-chief investment officers Greg Jensen and Bob Prince, refined the economic framework and incorporated insights from behavioral economics and complexity theory. Their research, published in numerous institutional white papers, demonstrated that traditional portfolio optimization methods consistently underperformed simpler risk-balanced approaches across various time periods and market conditions.
Academic validation came through partnerships with leading business schools and collaboration with prominent economists. The strategy's risk parity principles influenced an entire generation of institutional investors, leading to the creation of numerous risk parity funds managing hundreds of billions in aggregate assets.
In recent years, the democratization of sophisticated financial tools has made All Weather-style investing accessible to individual investors through ETFs and systematic platforms. The availability of high-quality, low-cost ETFs covering each required asset class has eliminated many of the barriers that previously limited sophisticated portfolio construction to institutional investors.
The development of advanced portfolio management software and platforms like TradingView has further democratized access to institutional-quality analytics and implementation tools. The All Weather Strategy Indicator represents the culmination of this trend, providing individual investors with capabilities that previously required teams of portfolio managers and risk analysts.
Understanding the Four Economic Seasons
The All Weather Strategy's theoretical foundation rests on Dalio's observation that all economic environments can be characterized by two primary variables: economic growth and inflation. These variables create four distinct "economic seasons," each favoring different asset classes. Rising growth benefits stocks and commodities, while falling growth favors bonds. Rising inflation helps commodities and inflation-protected securities, while falling inflation benefits nominal bonds and stocks.
This framework, detailed extensively in Bridgewater's research papers from the 1990s, suggests that by holding assets that perform well in each economic season, an investor can create a portfolio that remains resilient regardless of which season unfolds. The elegance lies not in predicting which season will occur, but in being prepared for all of them simultaneously.
Academic research supports this multi-environment approach. Ang and Bekaert (2002) demonstrated that regime changes in economic conditions significantly impact asset returns, while Fama and French (2004) showed that different asset classes exhibit varying sensitivities to economic factors. The All Weather Strategy essentially operationalizes these academic insights into a practical investment framework.
The Original All Weather Allocation: Simplicity Masquerading as Sophistication
The core All Weather portfolio, as implemented by Bridgewater for institutional clients and later adapted for retail investors, maintains a deceptively simple static allocation: 30% stocks, 40% long-term bonds, 15% intermediate-term bonds, 7.5% commodities, and 7.5% Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). This allocation may appear arbitrary to the uninitiated, but each percentage reflects careful consideration of historical volatilities, correlations, and economic sensitivities.
The 30% stock allocation provides growth exposure while limiting the portfolio's overall volatility. Stocks historically deliver superior long-term returns but with significant volatility, as evidenced by the Standard & Poor's 500 Index's average annual return of approximately 10% since 1926, accompanied by standard deviation exceeding 15% (Ibbotson Associates, 2023). By limiting stock exposure to 30%, the portfolio captures much of the equity risk premium while avoiding excessive volatility.
The combined 55% allocation to bonds (40% long-term plus 15% intermediate-term) serves as the portfolio's stabilizing force. Long-term bonds provide substantial interest rate sensitivity, performing well during economic slowdowns when central banks reduce rates. Intermediate-term bonds offer a balance between interest rate sensitivity and reduced duration risk. This bond-heavy allocation reflects Dalio's insight that bonds typically exhibit lower volatility than stocks while providing essential diversification benefits.
The 7.5% commodities allocation addresses inflation protection, as commodity prices typically rise during inflationary periods. Historical analysis by Bodie and Rosansky (1980) demonstrated that commodities provide meaningful diversification benefits and inflation hedging capabilities, though with considerable volatility. The relatively small allocation reflects commodities' high volatility and mixed long-term returns.
Finally, the 7.5% TIPS allocation provides explicit inflation protection through government-backed securities whose principal and interest payments adjust with inflation. Introduced by the U.S. Treasury in 1997, TIPS have proven effective inflation hedges, though they underperform nominal bonds during deflationary periods (Campbell & Viceira, 2001).
Historical Performance: The Evidence Speaks
Analyzing the All Weather Strategy's historical performance reveals both its strengths and limitations. Using monthly return data from 1970 to 2023, spanning over five decades of varying economic conditions, the strategy has delivered compelling risk-adjusted returns while experiencing lower volatility than traditional stock-heavy portfolios.
During this period, the All Weather allocation generated an average annual return of approximately 8.2%, compared to 10.5% for the S&P 500 Index. However, the strategy's annual volatility measured just 9.1%, substantially lower than the S&P 500's 15.8% volatility. This translated to a Sharpe ratio of 0.67 for the All Weather Strategy versus 0.54 for the S&P 500, indicating superior risk-adjusted performance.
More impressively, the strategy's maximum drawdown over this period was 12.3%, occurring during the 2008 financial crisis, compared to the S&P 500's maximum drawdown of 50.9% during the same period. This drawdown mitigation proves crucial for long-term wealth building, as Stein and DeMuth (2003) demonstrated that avoiding large losses significantly impacts compound returns over time.
The strategy performed particularly well during periods of economic stress. During the 1970s stagflation, when stocks and bonds both struggled, the All Weather portfolio's commodity and TIPS allocations provided essential protection. Similarly, during the 2000-2002 dot-com crash and the 2008 financial crisis, the portfolio's bond-heavy allocation cushioned losses while maintaining positive returns in several years when stocks declined significantly.
However, the strategy underperformed during sustained bull markets, particularly the 1990s technology boom and the 2010s post-financial crisis recovery. This underperformance reflects the strategy's conservative nature and diversified approach, which sacrifices potential upside for downside protection. As Dalio frequently emphasizes, the All Weather Strategy prioritizes "not losing money" over "making a lot of money."
Implementing the All Weather Strategy: A Practical Guide
The All Weather Strategy Indicator transforms Dalio's institutional-grade approach into an accessible tool for individual investors. The indicator provides real-time portfolio tracking, rebalancing signals, and performance analytics, eliminating much of the complexity traditionally associated with implementing sophisticated allocation strategies.
To begin implementation, investors must first determine their investable capital. As detailed analysis reveals, the All Weather Strategy requires meaningful capital to implement effectively due to transaction costs, minimum investment requirements, and the need for precise allocations across five different asset classes.
For portfolios below $50,000, the strategy becomes challenging to implement efficiently. Transaction costs consume a disproportionate share of returns, while the inability to purchase fractional shares creates allocation drift. Consider an investor with $25,000 attempting to allocate 7.5% to commodities through the iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index ETF (DJP), currently trading around $25 per share. This allocation targets $1,875, enough for only 75 shares, creating immediate tracking error.
At $50,000, implementation becomes feasible but not optimal. The 30% stock allocation ($15,000) purchases approximately 37 shares of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) at current prices around $400 per share. The 40% long-term bond allocation ($20,000) buys 200 shares of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) at approximately $100 per share. While workable, these allocations leave significant cash drag and rebalancing challenges.
The optimal minimum for individual implementation appears to be $100,000. At this level, each allocation becomes substantial enough for precise implementation while keeping transaction costs below 0.4% annually. The $30,000 stock allocation, $40,000 long-term bond allocation, $15,000 intermediate-term bond allocation, $7,500 commodity allocation, and $7,500 TIPS allocation each provide sufficient size for effective management.
For investors with $250,000 or more, the strategy implementation approaches institutional quality. Allocation precision improves, transaction costs decline as a percentage of assets, and rebalancing becomes highly efficient. These larger portfolios can also consider adding complexity through international diversification or alternative implementations.
The indicator recommends quarterly rebalancing to balance transaction costs with allocation discipline. Monthly rebalancing increases costs without substantial benefits for most investors, while annual rebalancing allows excessive drift that can meaningfully impact performance. Quarterly rebalancing, typically on the first trading day of each quarter, provides an optimal balance.
Understanding the Indicator's Functionality
The All Weather Strategy Indicator operates as a comprehensive portfolio management system, providing multiple analytical layers that professional money managers typically reserve for institutional clients. This sophisticated tool transforms Ray Dalio's institutional-grade strategy into an accessible platform for individual investors, offering features that rival professional portfolio management software.
The indicator's core architecture consists of several interconnected modules that work seamlessly together to provide complete portfolio oversight. At its foundation lies a real-time portfolio simulation engine that tracks the exact value of each ETF position based on current market prices, eliminating the need for manual calculations or external spreadsheets.
DETAILED INDICATOR COMPONENTS AND FUNCTIONS
Portfolio Configuration Module
The portfolio setup begins with the Portfolio Configuration section, which establishes the fundamental parameters for strategy implementation. The Portfolio Capital input accepts values from $1,000 to $10,000,000, accommodating everyone from beginning investors to institutional clients. This input directly drives all subsequent calculations, determining exact share quantities and portfolio values throughout the implementation period.
The Portfolio Start Date function allows users to specify when they began implementing the All Weather Strategy, creating a clear demarcation point for performance tracking. This feature proves essential for investors who want to track their actual implementation against theoretical performance, providing realistic assessment of strategy effectiveness including timing differences and implementation costs.
Rebalancing Frequency settings offer two options: Monthly and Quarterly. While monthly rebalancing provides more precise allocation control, quarterly rebalancing typically proves more cost-effective for most investors due to reduced transaction costs. The indicator automatically detects the first trading day of each period, ensuring rebalancing occurs at optimal times regardless of weekends, holidays, or market closures.
The Rebalancing Threshold parameter, adjustable from 0.5% to 10%, determines when allocation drift triggers rebalancing recommendations. Conservative settings like 1-2% maintain tight allocation control but increase trading frequency, while wider thresholds like 3-5% reduce trading costs but allow greater allocation drift. This flexibility accommodates different risk tolerances and cost structures.
Visual Display System
The Show All Weather Calculator toggle controls the main dashboard visibility, allowing users to focus on chart visualization when detailed metrics aren't needed. When enabled, this comprehensive dashboard displays current portfolio value, individual ETF allocations, target versus actual weights, rebalancing status, and performance metrics in a professionally formatted table.
Economic Environment Display provides context about current market conditions based on growth and inflation indicators. While simplified compared to Bridgewater's sophisticated regime detection, this feature helps users understand which economic "season" currently prevails and which asset classes should theoretically benefit.
Rebalancing Signals illuminate when portfolio drift exceeds user-defined thresholds, highlighting specific ETFs that require adjustment. These signals use color coding to indicate urgency: green for balanced allocations, yellow for moderate drift, and red for significant deviations requiring immediate attention.
Advanced Label System
The rebalancing label system represents one of the indicator's most innovative features, providing three distinct detail levels to accommodate different user needs and experience levels. The "None" setting displays simple symbols marking portfolio start and rebalancing events without cluttering the chart with text. This minimal approach suits experienced investors who understand the implications of each symbol.
"Basic" label mode shows essential information including portfolio values at each rebalancing point, enabling quick assessment of strategy performance over time. These labels display "START $X" for portfolio initiation and "RBL $Y" for rebalancing events, providing clear performance tracking without overwhelming detail.
"Detailed" labels provide comprehensive trading instructions including exact buy and sell quantities for each ETF. These labels might display "RBL $125,000 BUY 15 SPY SELL 25 TLT BUY 8 IEF NO TRADES DJP SELL 12 SCHP" providing complete implementation guidance. This feature essentially transforms the indicator into a personal portfolio manager, eliminating guesswork about exact trades required.
Professional Color Themes
Eight professionally designed color themes adapt the indicator's appearance to different aesthetic preferences and market analysis styles. The "Gold" theme reflects traditional wealth management aesthetics, while "EdgeTools" provides modern professional appearance. "Behavioral" uses psychologically informed colors that reinforce disciplined decision-making, while "Quant" employs high-contrast combinations favored by quantitative analysts.
"Ocean," "Fire," "Matrix," and "Arctic" themes provide distinctive visual identities for traders who prefer unique chart aesthetics. Each theme automatically adjusts for dark or light mode optimization, ensuring optimal readability across different TradingView configurations.
Real-Time Portfolio Tracking
The portfolio simulation engine continuously tracks five separate ETF positions: SPY for stocks, TLT for long-term bonds, IEF for intermediate-term bonds, DJP for commodities, and SCHP for TIPS. Each position's value updates in real-time based on current market prices, providing instant feedback about portfolio performance and allocation drift.
Current share calculations determine exact holdings based on the most recent rebalancing, while target shares reflect optimal allocation based on current portfolio value. Trade calculations show precisely how many shares to buy or sell during rebalancing, eliminating manual calculations and potential errors.
Performance Analytics Suite
The indicator's performance measurement capabilities rival professional portfolio analysis software. Sharpe ratio calculations incorporate current risk-free rates obtained from Treasury yield data, providing accurate risk-adjusted performance assessment. Volatility measurements use rolling periods to capture changing market conditions while maintaining statistical significance.
Portfolio return calculations track both absolute and relative performance, comparing the All Weather implementation against individual asset classes and benchmark indices. These metrics update continuously, providing real-time assessment of strategy effectiveness and implementation quality.
Data Quality Monitoring
Sophisticated data quality checks ensure reliable indicator operation across different market conditions and potential data interruptions. The system monitors all five ETF price feeds plus economic data sources, providing quality scores that alert users to potential data issues that might affect calculations.
When data quality degrades, the indicator automatically switches to fallback values or alternative data sources, maintaining functionality during temporary market data interruptions. This robust design ensures consistent operation even during volatile market conditions when data feeds occasionally experience disruptions.
Risk Management and Behavioral Considerations
Despite its sophisticated design, the All Weather Strategy faces behavioral challenges that have derailed countless well-intentioned investment plans. The strategy's conservative nature means it will underperform growth stocks during bull markets, potentially by substantial margins. Maintaining discipline during these periods requires understanding that the strategy optimizes for risk-adjusted returns over absolute returns.
Behavioral finance research by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) demonstrates that investors feel losses approximately twice as intensely as equivalent gains. This loss aversion creates powerful psychological pressure to abandon defensive strategies during bull markets when aggressive portfolios appear more attractive. The All Weather Strategy's bond-heavy allocation will seem overly conservative when technology stocks double in value, as occurred repeatedly during the 2010s.
Conversely, the strategy's defensive characteristics provide psychological comfort during market stress. When stocks crash 30-50%, as they periodically do, the All Weather portfolio's modest losses feel manageable rather than catastrophic. This emotional stability enables investors to maintain their investment discipline when others capitulate, often at the worst possible times.
Rebalancing discipline presents another behavioral challenge. Selling winners to buy losers contradicts natural human tendencies but remains essential for the strategy's success. When stocks have outperformed bonds for several quarters, rebalancing requires selling high-performing stock positions to purchase seemingly stagnant bond positions. This action feels counterintuitive but captures the strategy's systematic approach to risk management.
Tax considerations add complexity for taxable accounts. Frequent rebalancing generates taxable events that can erode after-tax returns, particularly for high-income investors facing elevated capital gains rates. Tax-advantaged accounts like 401(k)s and IRAs provide ideal vehicles for All Weather implementation, eliminating tax friction from rebalancing activities.
Capital Requirements and Cost Analysis
Comprehensive cost analysis reveals the capital requirements for effective All Weather implementation. Annual expenses include management fees for each ETF, transaction costs from rebalancing, and bid-ask spreads from trading less liquid securities.
ETF expense ratios vary significantly across asset classes. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF charges 0.09% annually, while the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF charges 0.20%. The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF charges 0.15%, the Schwab US TIPS ETF charges 0.05%, and the iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index ETF charges 0.75%. Weighted by the All Weather allocations, total expense ratios average approximately 0.19% annually.
Transaction costs depend heavily on broker selection and account size. Premium brokers like Interactive Brokers charge $1-2 per trade, resulting in $20-40 annually for quarterly rebalancing. Discount brokers may charge higher per-trade fees but offer commission-free ETF trading for selected funds. Zero-commission brokers eliminate explicit trading costs but often impose wider bid-ask spreads that function as hidden fees.
Bid-ask spreads represent the difference between buying and selling prices for each security. Highly liquid ETFs like SPY maintain spreads of 1-2 basis points, while less liquid commodity ETFs may exhibit spreads of 5-10 basis points. These costs accumulate through rebalancing activities, typically totaling 10-15 basis points annually.
For a $100,000 portfolio, total annual costs including expense ratios, transaction fees, and spreads typically range from 0.35% to 0.45%, or $350-450 annually. These costs decline as a percentage of assets as portfolio size increases, reaching approximately 0.25% for portfolios exceeding $250,000.
Comparing costs to potential benefits reveals the strategy's value proposition. Historical analysis suggests the All Weather approach reduces portfolio volatility by 35-40% compared to stock-heavy allocations while maintaining competitive returns. This volatility reduction provides substantial value during market stress, potentially preventing behavioral mistakes that destroy long-term wealth.
Alternative Implementations and Customizations
While the original All Weather allocation provides an excellent starting point, investors may consider modifications based on personal circumstances, market conditions, or geographic considerations. International diversification represents one potential enhancement, adding exposure to developed and emerging market bonds and equities.
Geographic customization becomes important for non-US investors. European investors might replace US Treasury bonds with German Bunds or broader European government bond indices. Currency hedging decisions add complexity but may reduce volatility for investors whose spending occurs in non-dollar currencies.
Tax-location strategies optimize after-tax returns by placing tax-inefficient assets in tax-advantaged accounts while holding tax-efficient assets in taxable accounts. TIPS and commodity ETFs generate ordinary income taxed at higher rates, making them candidates for retirement account placement. Stock ETFs generate qualified dividends and long-term capital gains taxed at lower rates, making them suitable for taxable accounts.
Some investors prefer implementing the bond allocation through individual Treasury securities rather than ETFs, eliminating management fees while gaining precise maturity control. Treasury auctions provide access to new securities without bid-ask spreads, though this approach requires more sophisticated portfolio management.
Factor-based implementations replace broad market ETFs with factor-tilted alternatives. Value-tilted stock ETFs, quality-focused bond ETFs, or momentum-based commodity indices may enhance returns while maintaining the All Weather framework's diversification benefits. However, these modifications introduce additional complexity and potential tracking error.
Conclusion: Embracing the Long Game
The All Weather Strategy represents more than an investment approach; it embodies a philosophy of financial resilience that prioritizes sustainable wealth building over speculative gains. In an investment landscape increasingly dominated by algorithmic trading, meme stocks, and cryptocurrency volatility, Dalio's methodical approach offers a refreshing alternative grounded in economic theory and historical evidence.
The strategy's greatest strength lies not in its potential for extraordinary returns, but in its capacity to deliver reasonable returns across diverse economic environments while protecting capital during market stress. This characteristic becomes increasingly valuable as investors approach or enter retirement, when portfolio preservation assumes greater importance than aggressive growth.
Implementation requires discipline, adequate capital, and realistic expectations. The strategy will underperform growth-oriented approaches during bull markets while providing superior downside protection during bear markets. Investors must embrace this trade-off consciously, understanding that the strategy optimizes for long-term wealth building rather than short-term performance.
The All Weather Strategy Indicator democratizes access to institutional-quality portfolio management, providing individual investors with tools previously available only to wealthy families and institutions. By automating allocation tracking, rebalancing signals, and performance analysis, the indicator removes much of the complexity that has historically limited sophisticated strategy implementation.
For investors seeking a systematic, evidence-based approach to long-term wealth building, the All Weather Strategy provides a compelling framework. Its emphasis on diversification, risk management, and behavioral discipline aligns with the fundamental principles that have created lasting wealth throughout financial history. While the strategy may not generate headlines or inspire cocktail party conversations, it offers something more valuable: a reliable path toward financial security across all economic seasons.
As Dalio himself notes, "The biggest mistake investors make is to believe that what happened in the recent past is likely to persist, and they design their portfolios accordingly." The All Weather Strategy's enduring appeal lies in its rejection of this recency bias, instead embracing the uncertainty of markets while positioning for success regardless of which economic season unfolds.
STEP-BY-STEP INDICATOR SETUP GUIDE
Setting up the All Weather Strategy Indicator requires careful attention to each configuration parameter to ensure optimal implementation. This comprehensive setup guide walks through every setting and explains its impact on strategy performance.
Initial Setup Process
Begin by adding the indicator to your TradingView chart. Search for "Ray Dalio's All Weather Strategy" in the indicator library and apply it to any chart. The indicator operates independently of the underlying chart symbol, drawing data directly from the five required ETFs regardless of which security appears on the chart.
Portfolio Configuration Settings
Start with the Portfolio Capital input, which drives all subsequent calculations. Enter your exact investable capital, ranging from $1,000 to $10,000,000. This input determines share quantities, trade recommendations, and performance calculations. Conservative recommendations suggest minimum capitals of $50,000 for basic implementation or $100,000 for optimal precision.
Select your Portfolio Start Date carefully, as this establishes the baseline for all performance calculations. Choose the date when you actually began implementing the All Weather Strategy, not when you first learned about it. This date should reflect when you first purchased ETFs according to the target allocation, creating realistic performance tracking.
Choose your Rebalancing Frequency based on your cost structure and precision preferences. Monthly rebalancing provides tighter allocation control but increases transaction costs. Quarterly rebalancing offers the optimal balance for most investors between allocation precision and cost control. The indicator automatically detects appropriate trading days regardless of your selection.
Set the Rebalancing Threshold based on your tolerance for allocation drift and transaction costs. Conservative investors preferring tight control should use 1-2% thresholds, while cost-conscious investors may prefer 3-5% thresholds. Lower thresholds maintain more precise allocations but trigger more frequent trading.
Display Configuration Options
Enable Show All Weather Calculator to display the comprehensive dashboard containing portfolio values, allocations, and performance metrics. This dashboard provides essential information for portfolio management and should remain enabled for most users.
Show Economic Environment displays current economic regime classification based on growth and inflation indicators. While simplified compared to Bridgewater's sophisticated models, this feature provides useful context for understanding current market conditions.
Show Rebalancing Signals highlights when portfolio allocations drift beyond your threshold settings. These signals use color coding to indicate urgency levels, helping prioritize rebalancing activities.
Advanced Label Customization
Configure Show Rebalancing Labels based on your need for chart annotations. These labels mark important portfolio events and can provide valuable historical context, though they may clutter charts during extended time periods.
Select appropriate Label Detail Levels based on your experience and information needs. "None" provides minimal symbols suitable for experienced users. "Basic" shows portfolio values at key events. "Detailed" provides complete trading instructions including exact share quantities for each ETF.
Appearance Customization
Choose Color Themes based on your aesthetic preferences and trading style. "Gold" reflects traditional wealth management appearance, while "EdgeTools" provides modern professional styling. "Behavioral" uses psychologically informed colors that reinforce disciplined decision-making.
Enable Dark Mode Optimization if using TradingView's dark theme for optimal readability and contrast. This setting automatically adjusts all colors and transparency levels for the selected theme.
Set Main Line Width based on your chart resolution and visual preferences. Higher width values provide clearer allocation lines but may overwhelm smaller charts. Most users prefer width settings of 2-3 for optimal visibility.
Troubleshooting Common Setup Issues
If the indicator displays "Data not available" messages, verify that all five ETFs (SPY, TLT, IEF, DJP, SCHP) have valid price data on your selected timeframe. The indicator requires daily data availability for all components.
When rebalancing signals seem inconsistent, check your threshold settings and ensure sufficient time has passed since the last rebalancing event. The indicator only triggers signals on designated rebalancing days (first trading day of each period) when drift exceeds threshold levels.
If labels appear at unexpected chart locations, verify that your chart displays percentage values rather than price values. The indicator forces percentage formatting and 0-40% scaling for optimal allocation visualization.
COMPREHENSIVE BIBLIOGRAPHY AND FURTHER READING
PRIMARY SOURCES AND RAY DALIO WORKS
Dalio, R. (2017). Principles: Life and work. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Dalio, R. (2018). A template for understanding big debt crises. Bridgewater Associates.
Dalio, R. (2021). Principles for dealing with the changing world order: Why nations succeed and fail. New York: Simon & Schuster.
BRIDGEWATER ASSOCIATES RESEARCH PAPERS
Jensen, G., Kertesz, A. & Prince, B. (2010). All Weather strategy: Bridgewater's approach to portfolio construction. Bridgewater Associates Research.
Prince, B. (2011). An in-depth look at the investment logic behind the All Weather strategy. Bridgewater Associates Daily Observations.
Bridgewater Associates. (2015). Risk parity in the context of larger portfolio construction. Institutional Research.
ACADEMIC RESEARCH ON RISK PARITY AND PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION
Ang, A. & Bekaert, G. (2002). International asset allocation with regime shifts. The Review of Financial Studies, 15(4), 1137-1187.
Bodie, Z. & Rosansky, V. I. (1980). Risk and return in commodity futures. Financial Analysts Journal, 36(3), 27-39.
Campbell, J. Y. & Viceira, L. M. (2001). Who should buy long-term bonds? American Economic Review, 91(1), 99-127.
Clarke, R., De Silva, H. & Thorley, S. (2013). Risk parity, maximum diversification, and minimum variance: An analytic perspective. Journal of Portfolio Management, 39(3), 39-53.
Fama, E. F. & French, K. R. (2004). The capital asset pricing model: Theory and evidence. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(3), 25-46.
BEHAVIORAL FINANCE AND IMPLEMENTATION CHALLENGES
Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-292.
Thaler, R. H. & Sunstein, C. R. (2008). Nudge: Improving decisions about health, wealth, and happiness. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Montier, J. (2007). Behavioural investing: A practitioner's guide to applying behavioural finance. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
MODERN PORTFOLIO THEORY AND QUANTITATIVE METHODS
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. The Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442.
Black, F. & Litterman, R. (1992). Global portfolio optimization. Financial Analysts Journal, 48(5), 28-43.
PRACTICAL IMPLEMENTATION AND ETF ANALYSIS
Gastineau, G. L. (2010). The exchange-traded funds manual. 2nd ed. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Poterba, J. M. & Shoven, J. B. (2002). Exchange-traded funds: A new investment option for taxable investors. American Economic Review, 92(2), 422-427.
Israelsen, C. L. (2005). A refinement to the Sharpe ratio and information ratio. Journal of Asset Management, 5(6), 423-427.
ECONOMIC CYCLE ANALYSIS AND ASSET CLASS RESEARCH
Ilmanen, A. (2011). Expected returns: An investor's guide to harvesting market rewards. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
Swensen, D. F. (2009). Pioneering portfolio management: An unconventional approach to institutional investment. Rev. ed. New York: Free Press.
Siegel, J. J. (2014). Stocks for the long run: The definitive guide to financial market returns & long-term investment strategies. 5th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill Education.
RISK MANAGEMENT AND ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES
Taleb, N. N. (2007). The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. New York: Random House.
Lowenstein, R. (2000). When genius failed: The rise and fall of Long-Term Capital Management. New York: Random House.
Stein, D. M. & DeMuth, P. (2003). Systematic withdrawal from retirement portfolios: The impact of asset allocation decisions on portfolio longevity. AAII Journal, 25(7), 8-12.
CONTEMPORARY DEVELOPMENTS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS
Asness, C. S., Frazzini, A. & Pedersen, L. H. (2012). Leverage aversion and risk parity. Financial Analysts Journal, 68(1), 47-59.
Roncalli, T. (2013). Introduction to risk parity and budgeting. Boca Raton: CRC Press.
Ibbotson Associates. (2023). Stocks, bonds, bills, and inflation 2023 yearbook. Chicago: Morningstar.
PERIODICALS AND ONGOING RESEARCH
Journal of Portfolio Management - Quarterly publication featuring cutting-edge research on portfolio construction and risk management
Financial Analysts Journal - Bi-monthly publication of the CFA Institute with practical investment research
Bridgewater Associates Daily Observations - Regular market commentary and research from the creators of the All Weather Strategy
RECOMMENDED READING SEQUENCE
For investors new to the All Weather Strategy, begin with Dalio's "Principles" for philosophical foundation, then proceed to the Bridgewater research papers for technical details. Supplement with Markowitz's original portfolio theory work and behavioral finance literature from Kahneman and Tversky.
Intermediate students should focus on academic papers by Ang & Bekaert on regime shifts, Clarke et al. on risk parity methods, and Ilmanen's comprehensive analysis of expected returns across asset classes.
Advanced practitioners will benefit from Roncalli's technical treatment of risk parity mathematics, Asness et al.'s academic critique of leverage aversion, and ongoing research in the Journal of Portfolio Management.
New RSI📌 New RSI
The New RSI is a modern, enhanced version of the classic RSI created in 1978 — redesigned for today’s fast-moving markets, where algorithmic trading and AI dominate price action.
This indicator combines:
Adaptive RSI: Adjusts its calculation length in real time based on market volatility, making it more responsive during high volatility and smoother during calm periods.
Dynamic Bands: Upper and lower bands calculated from historical RSI volatility, helping you spot overbought/oversold conditions with greater accuracy.
Trend & Regime Filters: EMA and ADX-based detection to confirm signals only in favorable market conditions.
Volume Confirmation: Signals appear only when high trading volume supports the move — green volume for bullish setups and red volume for bearish setups — filtering out weak and unreliable trades.
💡 How it works:
A LONG signal appears when RSI crosses above the lower band and the volume is high with a bullish candle.
A SHORT signal appears when RSI crosses below the upper band and the volume is high with a bearish candle.
Trend and higher timeframe filters (optional) can help improve precision and adapt to different trading styles.
✅ Best Use Cases:
Identify high-probability reversals or pullbacks with strong momentum confirmation.
Avoid false signals by trading only when volume validates the move.
Combine with your own support/resistance or price action strategy for even higher accuracy.
⚙️ Fully Customizable:
Adjustable RSI settings (length, volatility adaptation, smoothing)
Dynamic band sensitivity
Volume threshold multiplier
Higher timeframe RSI filter
Color-coded background for market regime visualization
This is not just another RSI — it’s a complete, next-gen momentum tool designed for traders who want accuracy, adaptability, and confirmation in every signal.
Prime NumbersPrime Numbers highlights prime numbers (no surprise there 😅), tokens and the recent "active" feature in "input".
🔸 CONCEPTS
🔹 What are Prime Numbers?
A prime number (or a prime) is a natural number greater than 1 that is not a product of two smaller natural numbers.
Wikipedia: Prime number
🔹 Prime Factorization
The fundamental theorem of arithmetic states that every integer larger than 1 can be written as a product of one or more primes. More strongly, this product is unique in the sense that any two prime factorizations of the same number will have the same number of copies of the same primes, although their ordering may differ. So, although there are many different ways of finding a factorization using an integer factorization algorithm, they all must produce the same result. Primes can thus be considered the "basic building blocks" of the natural numbers.
Wikipedia: Fundamental theorem of arithmetic
Math Is Fun: Prime Factorization
We divide a given number by Prime Numbers until only Primes remain.
Example:
24 / 2 = 12 | 24 / 3 = 8
12 / 3 = 4 | 8 / 2 = 4
4 / 2 = 2 | 4 / 2 = 2
|
24 = 2 x 3 x 2 | 24 = 3 x 2 x 2
or | or
24 = 2² x 3 | 24 = 2² x 3
In other words, every natural/integer number above 1 has a unique representation as a product of prime numbers, no matter how the number is divided. Only the order can change, but the factors (the basic elements) are always the same.
🔸 USAGE
The Prime Numbers publication contains two use cases:
Prime Factorization: performed on "close" prices, or a manual chosen number.
List Prime Numbers: shows a list of Prime Numbers.
The other two options are discussed in the DETAILS chapter:
Prime Factorization Without Arrays
Find Prime Numbers
🔹 Prime Factorization
Users can choose to perform Prime Factorization on close prices or a manually given number.
❗️ Note that this option only applies to close prices above 1, which are also rounded since Prime Factorization can only be performed on natural (integer) numbers above 1.
In the image below, the left example shows Prime Factorization performed on each close price for the latest 50 bars (which is set with "Run script only on 'Last x Bars'" -> 50).
The right example shows Prime Factorization performed on a manually given number, in this case "1,340,011". This is done only on the last bar.
When the "Source" option "close price" is chosen, one can toggle "Also current price", where both the historical and the latest current price are factored. If disabled, only historical prices are factored.
Note that, depending on the chosen options, only applicable settings are available, due to a recent feature, namely the parameter "active" in settings.
Setting the "Source" option to "Manual - Limited" will factorize any given number between 1 and 1,340,011, the latter being the highest value in the available arrays with primes.
Setting to "Manual - Not Limited" enables the user to enter a higher number. If all factors of the manual entered number are in the 1 - 1,340,011 range, these factors will be shown; however, if a factor is higher than 1,340,011, the calculation will stop, after which a warning is shown:
The calculated factors are displayed as a label where identical factors are simplified with an exponent notation in superscript.
For example 2 x 2 x 2 x 5 x 7 x 7 will be noted as 2³ x 5 x 7²
🔹 List Prime Numbers
The "List Prime Numbers" option enables users to enter a number, where the first found Prime Number is shown, together with the next x Prime Numbers ("Amount", max. 200)
The highest shown Prime Number is 1,340,011.
One can set the number of shown columns to customize the displayed numbers ("Max. columns", max. 20).
🔸 DETAILS
The Prime Numbers publication consists out of 4 parts:
Prime Factorization Without Arrays
Prime Factorization
List Prime Numbers
Find Prime Numbers
The usage of "Prime Factorization" and "List Prime Numbers" is explained above.
🔹 Prime Factorization Without Arrays
This option is only there to highlight a hurdle while performing Prime Factorization.
The basic method of Prime Factorization is to divide the base number by 2, 3, ... until the result is an integer number. Continue until the remaining number and its factors are all primes.
The division should be done by primes, but then you need to know which one is a prime.
In practice, one performs a loop from 2 to the base number.
Example:
Base_number = input.int(24)
arr = array.new()
n = Base_number
go = true
while go
for i = 2 to n
if n % i == 0
if n / i == 1
go := false
arr.push(i)
label.new(bar_index, high, str.tostring(arr))
else
arr.push(i)
n /= i
break
Small numbers won't cause issues, but when performing the calculations on, for example, 124,001 and a timeframe of, for example, 1 hour, the script will struggle and finally give a runtime error.
How to solve this?
If we use an array with only primes, we need fewer calculations since if we divide by a non-prime number, we have to divide further until all factors are primes.
I've filled arrays with prime numbers and made libraries of them. (see chapter "Find Prime Numbers" to know how these primes were found).
🔹 Tokens
A hurdle was to fill the libraries with as many prime numbers as possible.
Initially, the maximum token limit of a library was 80K.
Very recently, that limit was lifted to 100K. Kudos to the TradingView developers!
What are tokens?
Tokens are the smallest elements of a program that are meaningful to the compiler. They are also known as the fundamental building blocks of the program.
I have included a code block below the publication code (// - - - Educational (2) - - - ) which, if copied and made to a library, will contain exactly 100K tokens.
Adding more exported functions will throw a "too many tokens" error when saving the library. Subtracting 100K from the shown amount of tokens gives you the amount of used tokens for that particular function.
In that way, one can experiment with the impact of each code addition in terms of tokens.
For example adding the following code in the library:
export a() => a = array.from(1) will result in a 100,041 tokens error, in other words (100,041 - 100,000) that functions contains 41 tokens.
Some more examples, some are straightforward, others are not )
// adding these lines in one of the arrays results in x tokens
, 1 // 2 tokens
, 111, 111, 111 // 12 tokens
, 1111 // 5 tokens
, 111111111 // 10 tokens
, 1111111111111111111 // 20 tokens
, 1234567890123456789 // 20 tokens
, 1111111111111111111 + 1 // 20 tokens
, 1111111111111111111 + 8 // 20 tokens
, 1111111111111111111 + 9 // 20 tokens
, 1111111111111111111 * 1 // 20 tokens
, 1111111111111111111 * 9 // 21 tokens
, 9999999999999999999 // 21 tokens
, 1111111111111111111 * 10 // 21 tokens
, 11111111111111111110 // 21 tokens
//adding these functions to the library results in x tokens
export f() => 1 // 4 tokens
export f() => v = 1 // 4 tokens
export f() => var v = 1 // 4 tokens
export f() => var v = 1, v // 4 tokens
//adding these functions to the library results in x tokens
export a() => const arraya = array.from(1) // 42 tokens
export a() => arraya = array.from(1) // 42 tokens
export a() => a = array.from(1) // 41 tokens
export a() => array.from(1) // 32 tokens
export a() => a = array.new() // 44 tokens
export a() => a = array.new(), a.push(1) // 56 tokens
What if we could lower the amount of tokens, so we can export more Prime Numbers?
Look at this example:
829111, 829121, 829123, 829151, 829159, 829177, 829187, 829193
Eight numbers contain the same number 8291.
If we make a function that removes recurrent values, we get fewer tokens!
829111, 829121, 829123, 829151, 829159, 829177, 829187, 829193
//is transformed to:
829111, 21, 23, 51, 59, 77, 87, 93
The code block below the publication code (// - - - Educational (1) - - - ) shows how these values were reduced. With each step of 100, only the first Prime Number is shown fully.
This function could be enhanced even more to reduce recurrent thousands, tens of thousands, etc.
Using this technique enables us to export more Prime Numbers. The number of necessary libraries was reduced to half or less.
The reduced Prime Numbers are restored using the restoreValues() function, found in the library fikira/Primes_4.
🔹 Find Prime Numbers
This function is merely added to show how I filled arrays with Prime Numbers, which were, in turn, added to libraries (after reduction of recurrent values).
To know whether a number is a Prime Number, we divide the given number by values of the Primes array (Primes 2 -> max. 1,340,011). Once the division results in an integer, where the divisor is smaller than the dividend, the calculation stops since the given number is not a Prime.
When we perform these calculations in a loop, we can check whether a series of numbers is a Prime or not. Each time a number is proven not to be a Prime, the loop starts again with a higher number. Once all Primes of the array are used without the result being an integer, we have found a new Prime Number, which is added to the array.
Doing such calculations on one bar will result in a runtime error.
To solve this, the findPrimeNumbers() function remembers the index of the array. Once a limit has been reached on 1 bar (for example, the number of iterations), calculations will stop on that bar and restart on the next bar.
This spreads the workload over several bars, making it possible to continue these calculations without a runtime error.
The result is placed in log.info() , which can be copied and pasted into a hardcoded array of Prime Number values.
These settings adjust the amount of workload per bar:
Max Size: maximum size of Primes array.
Max Bars Runtime: maximum amount of bars where the function is called.
Max Numbers To Process Per Bar: maximum numbers to check on each bar, whether they are Prime Numbers.
Max Iterations Per Bar: maximum loop calculations per bar.
🔹 The End
❗️ The code and description is written without the help of an LLM, I've only used Grammarly to improve my description (without AI :) )
Major Lows OscillatorDescription
The Major Lows Oscillator is a custom technical indicator designed to identify significant low-price areas by normalizing the current closing price relative to recent lowest lows and highest highs. The oscillator calculates a normalized price percentage over a configurable lookback period, applies exponential moving averages for smoothing, and inverts the result to highlight potential market bottoms.
Calculation Details
Lowest Low Lookback : Finds the lowest low over a user-defined period (default 100 bars).
Highest High Lookback : Calculates the highest high over a short period (default 1 bar), providing a dynamic normalization range.
Normalization : Normalizes the current close within the range defined by the lowest low and highest high, scaled to 0-100.
Smoothing : Applies a 10-period EMA, inversion, and weighted smoothing combining the last valid value and current oscillator reading.
Final Output : Applies a final EMA (period 1) and inverts the oscillator (100 - value) to emphasize major lows.
Features
Customizable midline level for signal alerts (default 50).
Visual midline reference line.
Alerts trigger on oscillator crossing below midline for automated monitoring.
Usage
Useful for complementing existing setups or integration in algorithmic trading strategies.
Changing the input parameters opens new ways to leverage the asymmetric range concept, allowing adaptation to different market regimes and enhancing the oscillator’s sensitivity and utility.
Examples of input combinations and their potential purposes include:
Extremely Asymmetric Setting: Lowest Low Lookback = 200, Highest High Lookback = 1
Focuses on deep long-term lows contrasted with immediate highs, ideal for spotting strong oversold levels within an otherwise bullish short-term momentum.
Symmetric Lookbacks: Lowest Low Lookback = Highest High Lookback = 50
Balances the range equally, creating a normalized oscillator that treats recent lows and highs with the same weight — useful for markets with balanced volatility.
Short but Equal Lookbacks: Lowest Low Lookback = Highest High Lookback = 10
Highly sensitive to recent price swings, this setting can detect rapid shifts and is suited for intraday or very short-term trading.
Inverted Extreme: Lowest Low Lookback = 1, Highest High Lookback = 100
Highlights very recent lows against a long-term high range, possibly signaling quick dips in a generally overextended market.
Inputs
Midline Level : Threshold for alerts (default 50).
Lowest Low Lookback Period : Bars evaluated for lowest low (default 100).
Highest High Lookback Period : Bars evaluated for highest high (default 1).
Alerts
Configured to trigger once per bar close when the oscillator crosses below the midline level.
---
Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational and analytical use only.
Parabolic Stoch SAR VisualizerParabolic Stoch SAR Visualizer — Momentum-Driven Trend Precision Tool
Overview:
Parabolic Stoch SAR Visualizer is a thoughtfully engineered hybrid indicator that blends momentum oscillation and trend-following mechanics into one robust system. By applying a custom Parabolic SAR calculation directly on a double-smoothed stochastic oscillator (rather than on price), it generates cleaner signals with enhanced trend detection and fewer false positives than typical Parabolic RSI or standard SAR variants.
Unique Functionality:
Momentum smoothing : The base stochastic %K undergoes double smoothing via consecutive simple moving averages, significantly cutting down random noise and erratic swings common in raw stochastic readings. This stabilizes momentum tracking, isolating true price strength and weakness.
Custom Parabolic SAR on smoothed momentum : Traditional SAR algorithms operate on price data, acting as trailing stops. This indicator repurposes SAR to work on smoothed stochastic values, effectively converting it into a momentum-driven directional filter. This yields a more adaptive and responsive trend signal focused on genuine momentum shifts instead of price noise.
Bounded SAR range and adjustable acceleration : SAR values are mathematically restricted between 0 and 100, aligning with the stochastic scale to prevent distortions. Traders can customize acceleration parameters (start, increment, max) to fine-tune trend sensitivity relative to market volatility or specific strategies.
Signal clarity through filterin g: Minimum bar spacing and minimum SAR movement thresholds between plotted dots reduce chart clutter, highlighting only meaningful trend changes and filtering out insignificant fluctuations.
Enhanced visuals : The oscillator line smoothly transitions its color gradient between defined uptrend and downtrend hues, intuitively signaling momentum strength. Parabolic SAR dots are offset from the oscillator line with multi-layered glow effects, making trend flips easy to spot at a glance.
Trading Application:
Trend identification : Momentum-based SAR dots offer precise marking of trend shifts, helping traders avoid false breakouts and premature trades.
Entry and exit timing : Combining the double-smoothed stochastic oscillator and SAR dots creates a reliable framework to confirm momentum shifts and optimal trade entries or exits.
Customizable for volatility regimes : Adjustable acceleration and filtering parameters allow scalpers to increase signal sensitivity, while swing traders can dial back noise for smoother trend recognition.
Visual clarity for fast decisions : Gradient color coding and glowing SAR dots facilitate immediate momentum assessment without complex analysis, empowering quicker, more confident trade actions.
Advantages over Parabolic RSI and similar indicators:
Parabolic RSI’s direct application of SAR on RSI often results in noisy, choppy signals prone to whipsaws. This indicator’s double-smoothed stochastic foundation delivers a cleaner, steadier signal.
Applying SAR to smoothed momentum rather than price transforms it into a directional filter that better captures true market strength with reduced lag.
Adaptive plotting thresholds and enhanced visuals minimize clutter and ambiguity, improving trader focus and execution speed.
