Market Structure Volume Distribution [LuxAlgo]The Market Structure Volume Distribution tool allows traders to identify the strength behind breaks of market structure at defined price ranges to measure de correlation of forces between bulls and bears visually and easily.
🔶 USAGE
This tool has three main features: market structure highlighting, grid levels, and volume profile. Each feature is covered more in depth below:
🔹 Market Structure
The basic unit of market structure is a swing point, the period of the swing point is user-defined, so traders can identify longer-term market structures. Price breaking a prior swing point will confirm the occurrence of a market structure.
The tool will plot a line after a market structure is confirmed, by default the lines on bullish MS will be green (indicative of an uptrend), and red in case of bearish MS (indicative of a downtrend).
🔹 Grid Levels
The Grid visually divides the price range contained inside the tool execution window, into equal size rows, the number of rows is user-defined so users can divide the full price range up to 100 rows.
The main objective of this feature is to help identify the execution window and the limits of each row in the volume profile so traders can know in a simple look what BoMS belongs to each row.
There is however another use for the grid, by dividing the range into equal-sized parts, this feature provides automatic support and resistance levels as good as any other.
Grid provides a visual help to know what our execution window is and to associate MS with their rows in the profile. It can provide S/R levels too.
🔹 Volume Profile
The volume profile feature shows in a visually easy way the volume behind each MS aggregated by rows and divided into buy and sell volume to spot the differences in a simple look.
This tool allows users to spot the liquidity associated with the event of a market structure in a specific price range, allowing users to know which price areas where associated with the most trading activity during the occurrence of a market structutre.
🔶 SETTINGS
🔹 Data Gathering
Execute on all visible range: Activate this to use all visible bars on the calculations. This disables the use of the next parameter "Execute on the last N bars". Default false.
Execute on the last N bars: Use last N bars on the calculations. To use this parameter "Execute on all visible range" must be disabled. Values from 20 to 5000, default 500.
Pivot Length: How many bars will be used to confirm a pivot. The bigger this parameter is the fewer breaks of structure will detect. Values from 1, default 2
🔹 Profile
Profile Rows: Number of rows in the volume profile. Values from 2 to 100, default 10.
Profile Width: Maximum width of the volume profile. Values from 25 to 500, default 200.
Profile Mode: How the volume will be displayed on each row. "TOTAL VOLUME" will aggregate buy & sell volume per row, "BUY&SELL VOLUME" will separate the buy volume from the sell volume on each row. Default BUY&SELL VOLUME.
🔹 Style
Buy Color: This is the color for the buy volume on the profile when the "BUY&SELL VOLUME" mode is activated. Default green.
Sell Color: This is the color for the sell volume on the profile when the "BUY&SELL VOLUME" mode is activated. Default red.
Show dotted grid levels: Show dotted inner grid levels. Default true.
在腳本中搜尋"bear"
Trailing Management (Zeiierman)█ Overview
The Trailing Management (Zeiierman) indicator is designed for traders who seek an automated and dynamic approach to managing trailing stops. It helps traders make systematic decisions regarding when to enter and exit trades based on the calculated risk-reward ratio. By providing a clear visual representation of trailing stop levels and risk-reward metrics, the indicator is an essential tool for both novice and experienced traders aiming to enhance their trading discipline.
The Trailing Management (Zeiierman) indicator integrates a Break-Even Curve feature to enhance its utility in trailing stop management and risk-reward optimization. The Break-Even Curve illuminates the precise point at which a trade neither gains nor loses value, offering clarity on the risk-reward landscape. Furthermore, this precise point is calculated based on the required win rate and the risk/reward ratio. This calculation aids traders in understanding the type of strategy they need to employ at any given time to be profitable. In other words, traders can, at any given point, assess the kind of strategy they need to utilize to make money, depending on the price's position within the risk/reward box.
█ How It Works
The indicator operates by computing the highest high and the lowest low over a user-defined period and then applying this information to determine optimal trailing stop levels for both long and short positions.
Directional Bias:
It establishes the direction of the market trend by comparing the index of the highest high and the lowest low within the lookback period.
Bullish
Bearish
Trailing Stop Adjustment:
The trailing stops are adjusted using one of three methods: an automatic calculation based on the median of recent peak differences, pivot points, or a fixed percentage defined by the user.
The Break-Even Curve:
The Break-Even Curve, along with the risk/reward ratio, is determined through the trailing method. This approach utilizes the current closing price as a hypothetical entry point for trades. All calculations, including those for the curve, are based on this current closing price, ensuring real-time accuracy and relevance. As market conditions fluctuate, the curve dynamically adjusts, offering traders a visual benchmark that signifies the break-even point. This real-time adjustment provides traders with an invaluable tool, allowing them to visually track how shifts in the market could impact the point at which their trades neither gain nor lose value.
Example:
Let's say the price is at the midpoint of the risk/reward box; this means that the risk/reward ratio should be 1:1, and the minimum win rate is 50% to break even.
In this example, we can see that the price is near the stop-loss level. If you are about to take a trade in this area and would respect your stop, you only need to have a minimum win rate of 11% to earn money, given the risk/reward ratio, assuming that you hold the trade to the target.
In other words, traders can, at any given point, assess the kind of strategy they need to employ to make money based on the price's position within the risk/reward box.
█ How to Use
Market Bias:
When using the Auto Bias feature, the indicator calculates the underlying market bias and displays it as either bullish or bearish. This helps traders align their trades with the underlying market trend.
Risk Management:
By observing the plotted trailing stops and the risk-reward ratios, traders can make strategic decisions to enter or exit positions, effectively managing the risk.
Strategy selection:
The Break-Even Curve is a powerful tool for managing risk, allowing traders to visualize the relationship between their trailing stops and the market's price movements. By understanding where the break-even point lies, traders can adjust their strategies to either lock in profits or cut losses.
Based on the plotted risk/reward box and the location of the price within this box, traders can easily see the win rate required by their strategy to make money in the long run, given the risk/reward ratio.
Consider this example: The market is bullish, as indicated by the bias, and the indicator suggests looking into long trades. The price is near the top of the risk/reward box, which means entering the market right now carries a huge risk, and the potential reward is very low. To take this trade, traders must have a strategy with a win rate of at least 90%.
█ Settings
Trailing Method:
Auto: The indicator calculates the trailing stop dynamically based on market conditions.
Pivot: The trailing stop is adjusted to the highest high (long positions) or lowest low (short positions) identified within a specified lookback period. This method uses the pivotal points of the market to set the trailing stop.
Percentage: The trailing stop is set at a fixed percentage away from the peak high or low.
Trailing Size (prd):
This setting defines the lookback period for the highest high and lowest low, which affects the sensitivity of the trailing stop to price movements.
Percentage Step (perc):
If the 'Percentage' method is selected, this setting determines the fixed percentage for the trailing stop distance.
Set Bias (bias):
Allows users to set a market bias which can be Bullish, Bearish, or Auto, affecting how the trailing stop is adjusted in relation to the market trend.
-----------------
Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
Smart Money Setup 04 [TradingFinder] Three Drive (Harmonic) + OB🔵 Introduction
The "Three Drive" pattern is a well-known formation in technical analysis, recognized for its ability to signal potential trend reversals in price action. Within the realm of trading, particularly in the context of "Reversal Patterns," the Three Drive pattern holds significance as a reliable indicator of shifts in market sentiment.
🟣 Bullish 3 Drive
This pattern typically manifests at a price bottom, where a sequence of lower lows suggests a prevailing negative trend. However, within the structure of the Three Drive pattern, a notable occurrence unfolds.
The second low breaches the range of the first low, followed by the third low surpassing the range of the second low. These penetrations signify a diminishing selling pressure and an emerging buying interest.
Traders often await the confirmation of the third low surpassing the second low as an entry point, with price targets set at the highs formed within the Three Drive pattern.
🟣 Bearish 3 Drive
Conversely, the Bearish Three Drive pattern emerges at a price top, characterized by a sequence of higher highs indicating an upward trend. Yet, amidst this apparent bullish momentum, a shift occurs.
The second high breaks beyond the range of the first high, succeeded by the third high exceeding the range of the second high. These breaches signify a waning buying strength and a resurgence in selling pressure.
Entry into a trade is often executed after the confirmation of the third high surpassing the second high, with targets set at the lows formed within the Three Drive pattern.
Importance :
Understanding the Three Drive pattern's significance extends beyond mere technical analysis. It bears resemblance to other established patterns, such as the Harmonic Pattern and Ending Diagonal within the Elliott Wave Theory.
Recognizing these parallels aids traders in comprehending broader market dynamics and potential price movements.
🔵 Formation of 3 Drive in Order Block Zone
The convergence of the Three Drive pattern with the concept of the Order Block Zone introduces a nuanced layer to traders' analytical approach.
In "Price Action" methodology, Order Blocks represent areas on the price chart where significant market players, such as institutional traders, have executed notable orders.
These zones often act as barriers, with price encountering resistance or support upon reaching them.
When the Three Drive pattern forms within an Order Block Zone, it signifies a confluence of market dynamics.
The completion of the pattern within this zone suggests a potential reversal in the prevailing trend, augmented by the presence of significant institutional orders.
Traders incorporate these Order Blocks into their analysis to identify probable levels where price may change direction, enhancing the reliability of their trading decisions.
🔵 How to Use :
To effectively utilize the Three Drive pattern within the Order Block Zone, traders seek alignment between the completion of the pattern and the presence of significant Order Blocks.
This convergence enhances the reliability of the pattern's signals, increasing the likelihood of successful trade outcomes.
Bullish Three Drive in Demand Zone :
Bearish Three Drive in Supply Zone :
Settings :
You can set your desired "Pivot Period" via settings for the indicator to identify setups based on it.
Bullish Cassiopeia C Harmonic Patterns [theEccentricTrader]█ OVERVIEW
This indicator automatically detects and draws bullish Cassiopeia C harmonic patterns and price projections derived from the ranges that constitute the patterns.
Cassiopeia A, B and C harmonic patterns are patterns that I created/discovered myself. They are all inspired by the Cassiopeia constellation and each one is based on different rotations of the constellation as it moves through the sky. The range ratios are also based on the constellation's right ascension and declination listed on Wikipedia:
Right ascension 22h 57m 04.5897s–03h 41m 14.0997s
Declination 77.6923447°–48.6632690°
en.wikipedia.org
I actually developed this idea quite a while ago now but have not felt audacious enough to introduce a new harmonic pattern, let alone 3 at the same time! But I have since been able to run backtests on tick data going back to 2002 across a variety of market and timeframe combinations and have learned that the Cassiopeia patterns can certainly hold their own against the currently known harmonic patterns.
I would also point out that the Cassiopeia constellation does actually look like a harmonic pattern and the Cassiopeia A star is literally the 'strongest source of radio emission in the sky beyond the solar system', so its arguably more of a real harmonic phenomenon than the current patterns.
www.britannica.com
chandra.si.edu
█ CONCEPTS
Green and Red Candles
• A green candle is one that closes with a close price equal to or above the price it opened.
• A red candle is one that closes with a close price that is lower than the price it opened.
Swing Highs and Swing Lows
• A swing high is a green candle or series of consecutive green candles followed by a single red candle to complete the swing and form the peak.
• A swing low is a red candle or series of consecutive red candles followed by a single green candle to complete the swing and form the trough.
Peak and Trough Prices (Basic)
• The peak price of a complete swing high is the high price of either the red candle that completes the swing high or the high price of the preceding green candle, depending on which is higher.
• The trough price of a complete swing low is the low price of either the green candle that completes the swing low or the low price of the preceding red candle, depending on which is lower.
Historic Peaks and Troughs
The current, or most recent, peak and trough occurrences are referred to as occurrence zero. Previous peak and trough occurrences are referred to as historic and ordered numerically from right to left, with the most recent historic peak and trough occurrences being occurrence one.
Range
The range is simply the difference between the current peak and current trough prices, generally expressed in terms of points or pips.
Upper Trends
• A return line uptrend is formed when the current peak price is higher than the preceding peak price.
• A downtrend is formed when the current peak price is lower than the preceding peak price.
• A double-top is formed when the current peak price is equal to the preceding peak price.
Lower Trends
• An uptrend is formed when the current trough price is higher than the preceding trough price.
• A return line downtrend is formed when the current trough price is lower than the preceding trough price.
• A double-bottom is formed when the current trough price is equal to the preceding trough price.
Muti-Part Upper and Lower Trends
• A multi-part return line uptrend begins with the formation of a new return line uptrend and continues until a new downtrend ends the trend.
• A multi-part downtrend begins with the formation of a new downtrend and continues until a new return line uptrend ends the trend.
• A multi-part uptrend begins with the formation of a new uptrend and continues until a new return line downtrend ends the trend.
• A multi-part return line downtrend begins with the formation of a new return line downtrend and continues until a new uptrend ends the trend.
Double Trends
• A double uptrend is formed when the current trough price is higher than the preceding trough price and the current peak price is higher than the preceding peak price.
• A double downtrend is formed when the current peak price is lower than the preceding peak price and the current trough price is lower than the preceding trough price.
Muti-Part Double Trends
• A multi-part double uptrend begins with the formation of a new uptrend that proceeds a new return line uptrend, and continues until a new downtrend or return line downtrend ends the trend.
• A multi-part double downtrend begins with the formation of a new downtrend that proceeds a new return line downtrend, and continues until a new uptrend or return line uptrend ends the trend.
Wave Cycles
A wave cycle is here defined as a complete two-part move between a swing high and a swing low, or a swing low and a swing high. The first swing high or swing low will set the course for the sequence of wave cycles that follow; for example a chart that begins with a swing low will form its first complete wave cycle upon the formation of the first complete swing high and vice versa.
Figure 1.
Retracement and Extension Ratios
Retracement and extension ratios are calculated by dividing the current range by the preceding range and multiplying the answer by 100. Retracement ratios are those that are equal to or below 100% of the preceding range and extension ratios are those that are above 100% of the preceding range.
Fibonacci Retracement and Extension Ratios
The Fibonacci sequence is a series of numbers in which each number is the sum of the two preceding numbers, starting with 0 and 1. For example 0 + 1 = 1, 1 + 1 = 2, 1 + 2 = 3, and so on. Ultimately, we could go on forever but the first few numbers in the sequence are as follows: 0 , 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144.
The extension ratios are calculated by dividing each number in the sequence by the number preceding it. For example 0/1 = 0, 1/1 = 1, 2/1 = 2, 3/2 = 1.5, 5/3 = 1.6666..., 8/5 = 1.6, 13/8 = 1.625, 21/13 = 1.6153..., 34/21 = 1.6190..., 55/34 = 1.6176..., 89/55 = 1.6181..., 144/89 = 1.6179..., and so on. The retracement ratios are calculated by inverting this process and dividing each number in the sequence by the number proceeding it. For example 0/1 = 0, 1/1 = 1, 1/2 = 0.5, 2/3 = 0.666..., 3/5 = 0.6, 5/8 = 0.625, 8/13 = 0.6153..., 13/21 = 0.6190..., 21/34 = 0.6176..., 34/55 = 0.6181..., 55/89 = 0.6179..., 89/144 = 0.6180..., and so on.
1.618 is considered to be the 'golden ratio', found in many natural phenomena such as the growth of seashells and the branching of trees. Some now speculate the universe oscillates at a frequency of 0,618 Hz, which could help to explain such phenomena, but this theory has yet to be proven.
Traders and analysts use Fibonacci retracement and extension indicators, consisting of horizontal lines representing different Fibonacci ratios, for identifying potential levels of support and resistance. Fibonacci ranges are typically drawn from left to right, with retracement levels representing ratios inside of the current range and extension levels representing ratios extended outside of the current range. If the current wave cycle ends on a swing low, the Fibonacci range is drawn from peak to trough. If the current wave cycle ends on a swing high the Fibonacci range is drawn from trough to peak.
Harmonic Patterns
The concept of harmonic patterns in trading was first introduced by H.M. Gartley in his book "Profits in the Stock Market", published in 1935. Gartley observed that markets have a tendency to move in repetitive patterns, and he identified several specific patterns that he believed could be used to predict future price movements.
Since then, many other traders and analysts have built upon Gartley's work and developed their own variations of harmonic patterns. One such contributor is Larry Pesavento, who developed his own methods for measuring harmonic patterns using Fibonacci ratios. Pesavento has written several books on the subject of harmonic patterns and Fibonacci ratios in trading. Another notable contributor to harmonic patterns is Scott Carney, who developed his own approach to harmonic trading in the late 1990s and also popularised the use of Fibonacci ratios to measure harmonic patterns. Carney expanded on Gartley's work and also introduced several new harmonic patterns, such as the Shark pattern and the 5-0 pattern.
The bullish and bearish Gartley patterns are the oldest recognized harmonic patterns in trading and all the other harmonic patterns are ultimately modifications of the original Gartley patterns. Gartley patterns are fundamentally composed of 5 points, or 4 waves.
Bullish and Bearish Cassiopeia C Harmonic Patterns
• Bullish Cassiopeia C patterns are fundamentally composed of three troughs and two peaks. The second peak being higher than the first peak. And the third trough being lower than both the first and second troughs, while the second trough is higher than the first.
• Bearish Cassiopeia C patterns are fundamentally composed of three peaks and two troughs. The second trough being lower than the first trough. And the third peak being higher than both the first and second peaks, while the second peak is lower than the first.
The ratio measurements I use to detect the patterns are as follows:
• Wave 1 of the pattern, generally referred to as XA, has no specific ratio requirements.
• Wave 2 of the pattern, generally referred to as AB, should retrace by at least 11.34%, but no further than 22.31% of the range set by wave 1.
• Wave 3 of the pattern, generally referred to as BC, should extend by at least 225.7%, but no further than 341% of the range set by wave 2.
• Wave 4 of the pattern, generally referred to as CD, should retrace by at least 77.69%, but no further than 88.66% of the range set by wave 3.
Measurement Tolerances
In general, tolerance in measurements refers to the allowable variation or deviation from a specific value or dimension. It is the range within which a particular measurement is considered to be acceptable or accurate. In this script I have applied this concept to the measurement of harmonic pattern ratios to increase to the frequency of pattern occurrences.
For example, the AB measurement of Gartley patterns is generally set at around 61.8%, but with such specificity in the measuring requirements the patterns are very rare. We can increase the frequency of pattern occurrences by setting a tolerance. A tolerance of 10% to both downside and upside, which is the default setting for all tolerances, means we would have a tolerable measurement range between 51.8-71.8%, thus increasing the frequency of occurrence.
█ FEATURES
Inputs
• AB Lower Tolerance
• AB Upper Tolerance
• BC Lower Tolerance
• BC Upper Tolerance
• CD Lower Tolerance
• CD Upper Tolerance
• Pattern Color
• Label Color
• Show Projections
• Extend Current Projection Lines
Alerts
Users can set alerts for when the patterns occur.
█ LIMITATIONS
All green and red candle calculations are based on differences between open and close prices, as such I have made no attempt to account for green candles that gap lower and close below the close price of the preceding candle, or red candles that gap higher and close above the close price of the preceding candle. This may cause some unexpected behaviour on some markets and timeframes. I can only recommend using 24-hour markets, if and where possible, as there are far fewer gaps and, generally, more data to work with.
█ NOTES
I know a few people have been requesting a single indicator that contains all my patterns and I definitely hear you on that one. However, I have been very busy working on other projects while trying to trade and be a human at the same time. For now I am going to maintain my original approach of releasing each pattern individually so as to maintain consistency. But I am now also working on getting my some of my libraries ready for public release and in doing so I will finally be able to fit all patterns into one script. I will also be giving my scripts some TLC by making them cleaner once I have the libraries up and running. Please bear with me in the meantime, this may take a while. Cheers!
Bullish Cassiopeia B Harmonic Patterns [theEccentricTrader]█ OVERVIEW
This indicator automatically detects and draws bullish Cassiopeia B harmonic patterns and price projections derived from the ranges that constitute the patterns.
Cassiopeia A, B and C harmonic patterns are patterns that I created/discovered myself. They are all inspired by the Cassiopeia constellation and each one is based on different rotations of the constellation as it moves through the sky. The range ratios are also based on the constellation's right ascension and declination listed on Wikipedia:
Right ascension 22h 57m 04.5897s–03h 41m 14.0997s
Declination 77.6923447°–48.6632690°
en.wikipedia.org
I actually developed this idea quite a while ago now but have not felt audacious enough to introduce a new harmonic pattern, let alone 3 at the same time! But I have since been able to run backtests on tick data going back to 2002 across a variety of market and timeframe combinations and have learned that the Cassiopeia patterns can certainly hold their own against the currently known harmonic patterns.
I would also point out that the Cassiopeia constellation does actually look like a harmonic pattern and the Cassiopeia A star is literally the 'strongest source of radio emission in the sky beyond the solar system', so its arguably more of a real harmonic phenomenon than the current patterns.
www.britannica.com
chandra.si.edu
█ CONCEPTS
Green and Red Candles
• A green candle is one that closes with a close price equal to or above the price it opened.
• A red candle is one that closes with a close price that is lower than the price it opened.
Swing Highs and Swing Lows
• A swing high is a green candle or series of consecutive green candles followed by a single red candle to complete the swing and form the peak.
• A swing low is a red candle or series of consecutive red candles followed by a single green candle to complete the swing and form the trough.
Peak and Trough Prices (Basic)
• The peak price of a complete swing high is the high price of either the red candle that completes the swing high or the high price of the preceding green candle, depending on which is higher.
• The trough price of a complete swing low is the low price of either the green candle that completes the swing low or the low price of the preceding red candle, depending on which is lower.
Historic Peaks and Troughs
The current, or most recent, peak and trough occurrences are referred to as occurrence zero. Previous peak and trough occurrences are referred to as historic and ordered numerically from right to left, with the most recent historic peak and trough occurrences being occurrence one.
Range
The range is simply the difference between the current peak and current trough prices, generally expressed in terms of points or pips.
Upper Trends
• A return line uptrend is formed when the current peak price is higher than the preceding peak price.
• A downtrend is formed when the current peak price is lower than the preceding peak price.
• A double-top is formed when the current peak price is equal to the preceding peak price.
Lower Trends
• An uptrend is formed when the current trough price is higher than the preceding trough price.
• A return line downtrend is formed when the current trough price is lower than the preceding trough price.
• A double-bottom is formed when the current trough price is equal to the preceding trough price.
Muti-Part Upper and Lower Trends
• A multi-part return line uptrend begins with the formation of a new return line uptrend and continues until a new downtrend ends the trend.
• A multi-part downtrend begins with the formation of a new downtrend and continues until a new return line uptrend ends the trend.
• A multi-part uptrend begins with the formation of a new uptrend and continues until a new return line downtrend ends the trend.
• A multi-part return line downtrend begins with the formation of a new return line downtrend and continues until a new uptrend ends the trend.
Double Trends
• A double uptrend is formed when the current trough price is higher than the preceding trough price and the current peak price is higher than the preceding peak price.
• A double downtrend is formed when the current peak price is lower than the preceding peak price and the current trough price is lower than the preceding trough price.
Muti-Part Double Trends
• A multi-part double uptrend begins with the formation of a new uptrend that proceeds a new return line uptrend, and continues until a new downtrend or return line downtrend ends the trend.
• A multi-part double downtrend begins with the formation of a new downtrend that proceeds a new return line downtrend, and continues until a new uptrend or return line uptrend ends the trend.
Wave Cycles
A wave cycle is here defined as a complete two-part move between a swing high and a swing low, or a swing low and a swing high. The first swing high or swing low will set the course for the sequence of wave cycles that follow; for example a chart that begins with a swing low will form its first complete wave cycle upon the formation of the first complete swing high and vice versa.
Figure 1.
Retracement and Extension Ratios
Retracement and extension ratios are calculated by dividing the current range by the preceding range and multiplying the answer by 100. Retracement ratios are those that are equal to or below 100% of the preceding range and extension ratios are those that are above 100% of the preceding range.
Fibonacci Retracement and Extension Ratios
The Fibonacci sequence is a series of numbers in which each number is the sum of the two preceding numbers, starting with 0 and 1. For example 0 + 1 = 1, 1 + 1 = 2, 1 + 2 = 3, and so on. Ultimately, we could go on forever but the first few numbers in the sequence are as follows: 0 , 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144.
The extension ratios are calculated by dividing each number in the sequence by the number preceding it. For example 0/1 = 0, 1/1 = 1, 2/1 = 2, 3/2 = 1.5, 5/3 = 1.6666..., 8/5 = 1.6, 13/8 = 1.625, 21/13 = 1.6153..., 34/21 = 1.6190..., 55/34 = 1.6176..., 89/55 = 1.6181..., 144/89 = 1.6179..., and so on. The retracement ratios are calculated by inverting this process and dividing each number in the sequence by the number proceeding it. For example 0/1 = 0, 1/1 = 1, 1/2 = 0.5, 2/3 = 0.666..., 3/5 = 0.6, 5/8 = 0.625, 8/13 = 0.6153..., 13/21 = 0.6190..., 21/34 = 0.6176..., 34/55 = 0.6181..., 55/89 = 0.6179..., 89/144 = 0.6180..., and so on.
1.618 is considered to be the 'golden ratio', found in many natural phenomena such as the growth of seashells and the branching of trees. Some now speculate the universe oscillates at a frequency of 0,618 Hz, which could help to explain such phenomena, but this theory has yet to be proven.
Traders and analysts use Fibonacci retracement and extension indicators, consisting of horizontal lines representing different Fibonacci ratios, for identifying potential levels of support and resistance. Fibonacci ranges are typically drawn from left to right, with retracement levels representing ratios inside of the current range and extension levels representing ratios extended outside of the current range. If the current wave cycle ends on a swing low, the Fibonacci range is drawn from peak to trough. If the current wave cycle ends on a swing high the Fibonacci range is drawn from trough to peak.
Harmonic Patterns
The concept of harmonic patterns in trading was first introduced by H.M. Gartley in his book "Profits in the Stock Market", published in 1935. Gartley observed that markets have a tendency to move in repetitive patterns, and he identified several specific patterns that he believed could be used to predict future price movements.
Since then, many other traders and analysts have built upon Gartley's work and developed their own variations of harmonic patterns. One such contributor is Larry Pesavento, who developed his own methods for measuring harmonic patterns using Fibonacci ratios. Pesavento has written several books on the subject of harmonic patterns and Fibonacci ratios in trading. Another notable contributor to harmonic patterns is Scott Carney, who developed his own approach to harmonic trading in the late 1990s and also popularised the use of Fibonacci ratios to measure harmonic patterns. Carney expanded on Gartley's work and also introduced several new harmonic patterns, such as the Shark pattern and the 5-0 pattern.
The bullish and bearish Gartley patterns are the oldest recognized harmonic patterns in trading and all the other harmonic patterns are ultimately modifications of the original Gartley patterns. Gartley patterns are fundamentally composed of 5 points, or 4 waves.
Bullish and Bearish Cassiopeia B Harmonic Patterns
• Bullish Cassiopeia B patterns are fundamentally composed of three troughs and two peaks. The second peak being lower than the first peak. And the third trough being lower than both the first and second troughs, while the second trough is also lower than the first.
• Bearish Cassiopeia B patterns are fundamentally composed of three peaks and two troughs. The second trough being higher than the first trough. And the third peak being higher than both the first and second peaks, while the second peak is also higher than the first.
The ratio measurements I use to detect the patterns are as follows:
• Wave 1 of the pattern, generally referred to as XA, has no specific ratio requirements.
• Wave 2 of the pattern, generally referred to as AB, should retrace by at least 11.34%, but no further than 22.31% of the range set by wave 1.
• Wave 3 of the pattern, generally referred to as BC, should extend by at least 225.7%, but no further than 341% of the range set by wave 2.
• Wave 4 of the pattern, generally referred to as CD, should retrace by at least 77.69%, but no further than 88.66% of the range set by wave 3.
Measurement Tolerances
In general, tolerance in measurements refers to the allowable variation or deviation from a specific value or dimension. It is the range within which a particular measurement is considered to be acceptable or accurate. In this script I have applied this concept to the measurement of harmonic pattern ratios to increase to the frequency of pattern occurrences.
For example, the AB measurement of Gartley patterns is generally set at around 61.8%, but with such specificity in the measuring requirements the patterns are very rare. We can increase the frequency of pattern occurrences by setting a tolerance. A tolerance of 10% to both downside and upside, which is the default setting for all tolerances, means we would have a tolerable measurement range between 51.8-71.8%, thus increasing the frequency of occurrence.
█ FEATURES
Inputs
• AB Lower Tolerance
• AB Upper Tolerance
• BC Lower Tolerance
• BC Upper Tolerance
• CD Lower Tolerance
• CD Upper Tolerance
• Pattern Color
• Label Color
• Show Projections
• Extend Current Projection Lines
Alerts
Users can set alerts for when the patterns occur.
█ LIMITATIONS
All green and red candle calculations are based on differences between open and close prices, as such I have made no attempt to account for green candles that gap lower and close below the close price of the preceding candle, or red candles that gap higher and close above the close price of the preceding candle. This may cause some unexpected behaviour on some markets and timeframes. I can only recommend using 24-hour markets, if and where possible, as there are far fewer gaps and, generally, more data to work with.
█ NOTES
I know a few people have been requesting a single indicator that contains all my patterns and I definitely hear you on that one. However, I have been very busy working on other projects while trying to trade and be a human at the same time. For now I am going to maintain my original approach of releasing each pattern individually so as to maintain consistency. But I am now also working on getting my some of my libraries ready for public release and in doing so I will finally be able to fit all patterns into one script. I will also be giving my scripts some TLC by making them cleaner once I have the libraries up and running. Please bear with me in the meantime, this may take a while. Cheers!
Three Drive [TradingFinder] 3 Drive Harmonic Pattern Indicator🔵 Introduction
The "Three Drive" pattern is one of the light "RTM" setups suitable for identifying price trend reversals. For this reason, this pattern is considered one of the "Reversal Patterns."
🟣 Bullish 3 Drive
At a price bottom, a formation occurs where the negative trend appears to continue, and lower lows are made.
However, the second low penetrates the range of the first low, and the third low penetrates the range of the second low, indicating a decrease in selling pressure and an increase in buying pressure.
Entry point is issued after the penetration of the third low to the second low, and targets are the highs formed in the "3 Drive."
🟣 Bearish 3 Drive
At a price top, a formation occurs where the positive trend appears to continue, and higher highs are made.
However, the second high penetrates the range of the first high, and the third high penetrates the range of the second high, indicating a decrease in buyers' strength and an increase in sellers' strength.
Entry point is issued after the penetration of the third high to the second high, and targets are the lows formed in the "3 Drive."
Importance :
This pattern bears a striking resemblance to the some of "Harmonic Pattern" and "Ending Diagonal" in the "Elliott Pattern".
🔵 How to Use
There is no need for further confirmation to use this pattern, and you can use it as soon as the pattern forms. However, to reduce errors, it is better to use this pattern when it forms within a "Supply and Demand" or "Support and Resistance" structure.
Bullish 3 Drive in Demand Zone :
Bearish 3 Drive in Supply Zone :
🔵 Settings
You can set your desired "Pivot Period" via settings for the indicator to identify setups based on it.
ChartRage - ELMAELMA - Exponential Logarithmic Moving Average
This is a new kind of moving average that is using exponential normalization of a logarithmic formula. The exponential function is used to average the weight on the moving average while the logarithmic function is used to calculate the overall price effect.
Features and Settings:
◻️ Following rate of change instead of absolute levels
◻️ Choose input source of the data
◻️ Real time signals through price interaction
◻️ Change ELMA length
◻️ Change the exponential decay rate
◻️ Customize base color and signal color
Equation of the ELMA:
This formula calculates a weighted average of the logarithm of prices, where more recent prices have a higher weight. The result is then exponentiated to return the ELMA value. This approach emphasizes the relative changes in price, making the ELMA sensitive to the % rate of change rather than absolute price levels. The decay rate can be adjusted in the settings.
Comparison EMA vs ELMA:
In this image we see the differences to the Exponential Moving Average.
Price Interaction and earlier Signals:
In this image we have added the bars, so we can see that the ELMA provides different signals of resistance and support zones and highlights them, by changing to the color yellow, when prices interact with the ELMA.
Strategy by trading Support and Resistance Zones:
The ELMA helps to evaluate trends and find entry points in bullish market conditions, and exit points in bearish conditions. When prices drop below the ELMA in a bull market, it is considered a buying signal. Conversely, in a bear market, it serves as an exit signal when prices trade above the ELMA.
Volatile Markets:
The ELMA works on all timeframes and markets. In this example we used the default value for Bitcoin. The ELMA clearly shows support and resistance zones. Depending on the asset, the length and the decay rate should be adjusted to provide the best results.
Real Time Signals:
Signals occur not after a candle closes but when price interacts with the ELMA level, providing real time signals by shifting color. (default = yellow)
Disclaimer* All analyses, charts, scripts, strategies, ideas, or indicators developed by us are provided for informational and educational purposes only. We do not guarantee any future results based on the use of these tools or past data. Users should trade at their own risk.
This work is licensed under Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International
creativecommons.org
OBV 1min Volume SqueezeIn the vast realm of trading strategies, few terms evoke as much intrigue as the word "squeeze." It conjures images of pent-up energy, ready to burst forth in a sudden and decisive move. In this blog post, we'll delve into a new trading idea titled the "OBV 1-Minute Volume Squeeze" which aims to catch bigger market movements by fetching 1 minute OBV data on higher time charts.
The Essence of Squeeze
In trading parlance, a "squeeze" typically denotes a scenario where volatility contracts, and prices consolidate within a narrow range. Translating this concept to volume dynamics, a "volume squeeze" suggests a period of compressed volume activity. It is unclear if the Bulls or the Bears are at winning hand and price is thus consolidating. The script calculates buying and selling pressure by fetching 1 min data. The total volume presure is the sum of absolute values of the buying and selling pressure added up. By deviding the Buying volume by the total volume we know the Buying Pressure.
The trading theory suggest that when the buying pressure exceeds a certain value eg. 50% (default value in the script is 55%) it is likely the trend will continue to go up for a longer period of time. Vice Versa when selling pressure is higher, the trend is likely to continue down. In the script you can adjust the sensitivity in such way a higher "Volume Pressure %" result in less trading signals.
Fetching 1 min data
The OBV is a wonderful indicator to measure the buying and selling pressure. A disadvantage of the script is that the total volume pressure is presented as a positive (buying) or negative value (selling) value in the Oscillator. It does not offset the Bulls power against the Bears power at given time. The script aims to do measure the directional volume power by defining a volume pressure % (oulier value) by fetching 1 min OBV data on higher time frame charts comparing the Bulls power against the Bears Power. The code is included below:
// Fetch Lower Timeframe Data in an array
// nV = ZeroValue, sV = Selling Volume, bV = Buying Volume, tV = Total Volume
= request.security_lower_tf(syminfo.tickerid, '1', )
sum_bV_Lengthbars = array.sum(bV)
sum_sV_Lengthbars = array.sum(sV)
sum_tV_Lengthbars = sum_bV_Lengthbars + sum_sV_Lengthbars // Combine buying and selling volumes to get total volume
// Calculate buying and selling volume as percentage of the total volume, but ensure the denominator isn't zero.
buying_percentage = sum_tV_Lengthbars != 0 ? sum_bV_Lengthbars / sum_tV_Lengthbars * 100 : na
selling_percentage = sum_tV_Lengthbars != 0 ? -(sum_sV_Lengthbars / sum_tV_Lengthbars * 100) : na
OBV Oscillator Explanation
The On Balance Volume (OBV) indicator is a technical analysis tool used to measure buying and selling pressure in the market. It does this by keeping a running total of volume flows. OBV is typically calculated by adding the volume on a candle when the price closes higher than the previous candle's close and subtracting the volume on candles when the price closes lower than the previous candles close. If the price closes unchanged from the previous candle, the volume is not added to or subtracted from the OBV. The OBV can be presented as an oscillator. Positve value is the buying pressure and negative values is the selling pressure. In the settings the OBV is calculated based on 1 min data and comes with the following input options for visualization on the chart:
Higher Time Frame Settings (make sure the HTF is higher than the chart you have open)
Type of MA being: EMA, DEMA, TEMA, SMA, WMA, HMA, McGinley
Volume Pressure % (outlier value)
Length of number of bars (of the choosen HTF settings)
Smoothing of number candles of hte opened timechart. Note that higher number of bars to smoothen the indicator results in less signals, but lag of the indicator increases.
The Oscilator contains 3 main lines which are used to determin the entry signals:
Orange Line = the Outlier value in settings described as "Volume Pressure %"
Green Line = Total Buying Pressure OBV
Red Line = Total Selling Pressure OBV
If the Green or Red line is in between the zero line and the orange line the volume is squeezed and waiting for a directional break out.
If the Green line crosses over the orange line the buying pressure is > 55% and triggers a long entry position (green dot). If the Red line crosses under the orange line the selling pressure is > 55% and triggers an short entry (red dot). In the strategy settings this option is called: "Wait for total volume to increase?".
Alternative Strategy Options
In order to play around with different settings users can opt for two more strategy entry settings, called:
"Wait for total volume to deacrease?" --> Only gives a signal when total volume is declining, but buying or selling pressure maintains and crosses % threshold.
"Wait for Pull Back?" --> After a pullback occured and opposite buy/sell pressure gets lower than threshold (direction is shifting)
Turning on all options will logically result into more signals. Note these strategy ideas are experimental and can best be used in confirmation with other indicators.
Moving Average Filter (HTF)
The Oscillator has a horizontal line at the bottom. The line is green when the moving average is in a uptrend and red when the moving average is in a downtrend. The MA Filter comes with the following settings:
Higher Time Frame Setting
Type of MA being: EMA, DEMA, TEMA, SMA, WMA, HMA, McGinley
Length of number of bars (of the choosen HTF settings)
At last I hope you like this volume trading idea and if you have any comments let me know!
3 Bar PlayThe "3 Bar Play" is a simple yet powerful pattern that traders look for as a signal of potential market movement. The pattern is defined by a sequence of three bars (or candlesticks) on the chart:
I saw Rake Trades post about this pattern. It not a new concept just wanted it to automatically be plotted on my chart rather then looking out for it.
Up 3 Bar Play: This pattern signals a potential upward movement.
The first bar (two bars ago from the current bar) must close higher than it opened, indicating a bullish bar.
The second bar (the previous bar) must close lower than it opened, indicating a bearish bar, but its low should be higher than the low of the first bar, showing that bears couldn't push the price much lower.
The third bar (the current bar) must open and close higher than the previous bar, closing above the high of the second bar, confirming the bullish sentiment.
Down 3 Bar Play: This pattern signals a potential downward movement.
The first bar (two bars ago from the current bar) must close lower than it opened, indicating a bearish bar.
The second bar (the previous bar) must close higher than it opened, indicating a bullish bar, but its high should be lower than the high of the first bar, showing that bulls couldn't push the price much higher.
The third bar (the current bar) must open and close lower than the previous bar, closing below the low of the second bar, confirming the bearish sentiment.
Plotting the Patterns
plotshape(): This function is used to plot shapes on the chart to visually highlight where the patterns occur.
For an "Up 3 Bar Play", a green triangle pointing upwards is plotted below the bullish pattern to indicate a potential buy signal.
For a "Down 3 Bar Play", a red triangle pointing downwards is plotted above the bearish pattern to indicate a potential sell signal.
Key Points
This script helps traders quickly identify potential entry points based on the 3 Bar Play pattern without manually scanning the charts.
It's important to remember that no single pattern guarantees market movements, and it's often used in conjunction with other indicators and analysis methods.
This script is a practical tool for those looking to incorporate the 3 Bar Play pattern into their trading strategy, offering a clear visual cue on the chart whenever the pattern is identified.
Please understand the 3 bar play and where you should set your stop loss
Inversion Fair Value Gap Screener | Flux Charts💎 GENERAL OVERVIEW
Introducing our new Inverse Fair Value Gap Screener! This screener can provide information about the latest Inverse Fair Value Gaps in up to 5 tickers. You can also customize the algorithm that finds the Inverse Fair Value Gaps and the styling of the screener.
Features of the new Inverse Fair Value Gap (IFVG) Screener :
Find Latest Inverse Fair Value Gaps Across 5 Tickers
Shows Their Information Of :
Latest Status
Number Of Retests
Consumption Percent
Volume
Customizable Algorithm / Styling
📌 HOW DOES IT WORK ?
A Fair Value Gap generally occur when there is an imbalance in the market. They can be detected by specific formations within the chart. An Inverse Fair Value Gap is when a FVG becomes invalidated, thus reversing the direction of the FVG.
IFVGs get consumed when a Close / Wick enters the IFVG zone. Check this example:
This screener then finds Fair Value Gaps across 5 different tickers, and shows the latest information about them.
Status ->
Far -> The current price is far away from the IFVG.
Approaching ⬆️/⬇️ -> The current price is approaching the IFVG, and the direction it's approaching from.
Inside -> The price is currently inside the IFVG.
Retests -> Retest means the price tried to invalidate the IFVG, but failed to do so. Here you can see how many times the price retested the IFVG.
Consumed -> IFVGs get consumed when a Close / Wick enters the IFVG zone. For example, if the price hits the middle of the IFVG zone, the zone is considered 50% consumed.
Volume -> Volume of a IFVG is essentially the volume of the bar that broke the original FVG that formed it.
🚩UNIQUENESS
This screener can detect latest Inverse Fair Value Gaps and give information about them for up to 5 tickers. This saves the user time by showing them all in a dashboard at the same time. The screener also uniquely shows information about the number of retests and the consumed percent of the IFVG, as well as it's volume. We believe that this extra information will help you spot reliable IFVGs easier.
⚙️SETTINGS
1. Tickers
You can set up to 5 tickers for the screener to scan Fair Value Gaps here. You can also enable / disable them and set their individual timeframes.
2. General Configuration
FVG Zone Invalidation -> Select between Wick & Close price for FVG Zone Invalidation.
IFVG Zone Invalidation -> Select between Wick & Close price for IFVG Zone Invalidation. This setting also switches the type for IFVG consumption.
Zone Filtering -> With "Average Range" selected, algorithm will find FVG zones in comparison with average range of last bars in the chart. With the "Volume Threshold" option, you may select a Volume Threshold % to spot FVGs with a larger total volume than average.
FVG Detection -> With the "Same Type" option, all 3 bars that formed the FVG should be the same type. (Bullish / Bearish). If the "All" option is selected, bar types may vary between Bullish / Bearish.
Detection Sensitivity -> You may select between Low, Normal or High FVG detection sensitivity. This will essentially determine the size of the spotted FVGs, with lower sensitivities resulting in spotting bigger FVGs, and higher sensitivities resulting in spotting all sizes of FVGs.
Bitcoin Momentum StrategyThis is a very simple long-only strategy I've used since December 2022 to manage my Bitcoin position.
I'm sharing it as an open-source script for other traders to learn from the code and adapt it to their liking if they find the system concept interesting.
General Overview
Always do your own research and backtesting - this script is not intended to be traded blindly (no script should be) and I've done limited testing on other markets beyond Ethereum and BTC, it's just a template to tweak and play with and make into one's own.
The results shown in the strategy tester are from Bitcoin's inception so as to get a large sample size of trades, and potential returns have diminished significantly as BTC has grown to become a mega cap asset, but the script includes a date filter for backtesting and it has still performed solidly in recent years (speaking from personal experience using it myself - DYOR with the date filter).
The main advantage of this system in my opinion is in limiting the max drawdown significantly versus buy & hodl. Theoretically much better returns can be made by just holding, but that's also a good way to lose 70%+ of your capital in the inevitable bear markets (also speaking from experience).
In saying all of that, the future is fundamentally unknowable and past results in no way guarantee future performance.
System Concept:
Capture as much Bitcoin upside volatility as possible while side-stepping downside volatility as quickly as possible.
The system uses a simple but clever momentum-style trailing stop technique I learned from one of my trading mentors who uses this approach on momentum/trend-following stock market systems.
Basically, the system "ratchets" up the stop-loss to be much tighter during high bearish volatility to protect open profits from downside moves, but loosens the stop loss during sustained bullish momentum to let the position ride.
It is invested most of the time, unless BTC is trading below its 20-week EMA in which case it stays in cash/USDT to avoid holding through bear markets. It only trades one position (no pyramiding) and does not trade short, but can easily be tweaked to do whatever you like if you know what you're doing in Pine.
Default parameters:
HTF: Weekly Chart
EMA: 20-Period
ATR: 5-period
Bar Lookback: 7
Entry Rule #1:
Bitcoin's current price must be trading above its higher-timeframe EMA (Weekly 20 EMA).
Entry Rule #2:
Bitcoin must not be in 'caution' condition (no large bearish volatility swings recently).
Enter at next bar's open if conditions are met and we are not already involved in a trade.
"Caution" Condition:
Defined as true if BTC's recent 7-bar swing high minus current bar's low is > 1.5x ATR, or Daily close < Daily 20-EMA.
Trailing Stop:
Stop is trailed 1 ATR from recent swing high, or 20% of ATR if in caution condition (ie. 0.2 ATR).
Exit on next bar open upon a close below stop loss.
I typically use a limit order to open & exit trades as close to the open price as possible to reduce slippage, but the strategy script uses market orders.
I've never had any issues getting filled on limit orders close to the market price with BTC on the Daily timeframe, but if the exchange has relatively low slippage I've found market orders work fine too without much impact on the results particularly since BTC has consistently remained above $20k and highly liquid.
Cost of Trading:
The script uses no leverage and a default total round-trip commission of 0.3% which is what I pay on my exchange based on their tier structure, but this can vary widely from exchange to exchange and higher commission fees will have a significantly negative impact on realized gains so make sure to always input the correct theoretical commission cost when backtesting any script.
Static slippage is difficult to estimate in the strategy tester given the wide range of prices & liquidity BTC has experienced over the years and it largely depends on position size, I set it to 150 points per buy or sell as BTC is currently very liquid on the exchange I trade and I use limit orders where possible to enter/exit positions as close as possible to the market's open price as it significantly limits my slippage.
But again, this can vary a lot from exchange to exchange (for better or worse) and if BTC volatility is high at the time of execution this can have a negative impact on slippage and therefore real performance, so make sure to adjust it according to your exchange's tendencies.
Tax considerations should also be made based on short-term trade frequency if crypto profits are treated as a CGT event in your region.
Summary:
A simple, but effective and fairly robust system that achieves the goals I set for it.
From my preliminary testing it appears it may also work on altcoins but it might need a bit of tweaking/loosening with the trailing stop distance as the default parameters are designed to work with Bitcoin which obviously behaves very differently to smaller cap assets.
Good luck out there!
Wick %Heyo Fellas,
thanks for checking out my new indicator.
Introduction
Wick % is a simple indicator to compare wick size with body size (mode 1) and to compare wick size with candle size (mode 2).
Upper wicks are bullish when close is higher than open pricen.
Lower wicks are bearish when close is lower than open price.
Wick Theory
In general, big wick and small bodie on a bar means that bull and bears are fighting heavily.
A big wick below the body means the bulls are leading in that fight,
and a big wick above the body means the bears are leading in that fight.
Calculation Formula
Mode 1 – Percentual Increase Wick/Body:
upperWickPercentage = (upperWick / body) * 100 - 100
lowerWickPercentage = (lowerWick / body) * 100 - 100
Mode 2 – Percent Wick/Candlestick:
upperWickPercentage = (upperWick / (high - low)) * 100
lowerWickPercentage = (lowerWick / (high - low)) * 100
Usage
You can use it on every symbol and every timeframe.
The indicator repaints by default, but you can disable it in the settings.
When you disable repaint, it moves the label one bar to the right.
If you want to use the indicator for signals, you must disable repainting.
Best regards,
simwai
BAERMThe Bitcoin Auto-correlation Exchange Rate Model: A Novel Two Step Approach
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. THIS ARTICLE IS FOR EDUCATIONAL AND ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY.
If you enjoy this software and information, please consider contributing to my lightning address
Prelude
It has been previously established that the Bitcoin daily USD exchange rate series is extremely auto-correlated
In this article, we will utilise this fact to build a model for Bitcoin/USD exchange rate. But not a model for predicting the exchange rate, but rather a model to understand the fundamental reasons for the Bitcoin to have this exchange rate to begin with.
This is a model of sound money, scarcity and subjective value.
Introduction
Bitcoin, a decentralised peer to peer digital value exchange network, has experienced significant exchange rate fluctuations since its inception in 2009. In this article, we explore a two-step model that reasonably accurately captures both the fundamental drivers of Bitcoin’s value and the cyclical patterns of bull and bear markets. This model, whilst it can produce forecasts, is meant more of a way of understanding past exchange rate changes and understanding the fundamental values driving the ever increasing exchange rate. The forecasts from the model are to be considered inconclusive and speculative only.
Data preparation
To develop the BAERM, we used historical Bitcoin data from Coin Metrics, a leading provider of Bitcoin market data. The dataset includes daily USD exchange rates, block counts, and other relevant information. We pre-processed the data by performing the following steps:
Fixing date formats and setting the dataset’s time index
Generating cumulative sums for blocks and halving periods
Calculating daily rewards and total supply
Computing the log-transformed price
Step 1: Building the Base Model
To build the base model, we analysed data from the first two epochs (time periods between Bitcoin mining reward halvings) and regressed the logarithm of Bitcoin’s exchange rate on the mining reward and epoch. This base model captures the fundamental relationship between Bitcoin’s exchange rate, mining reward, and halving epoch.
where Yt represents the exchange rate at day t, Epochk is the kth epoch (for that t), and epsilont is the error term. The coefficients beta0, beta1, and beta2 are estimated using ordinary least squares regression.
Base Model Regression
We use ordinary least squares regression to estimate the coefficients for the betas in figure 2. In order to reduce the possibility of over-fitting and ensure there is sufficient out of sample for testing accuracy, the base model is only trained on the first two epochs. You will notice in the code we calculate the beta2 variable prior and call it “phaseplus”.
The code below shows the regression for the base model coefficients:
\# Run the regression
mask = df\ < 2 # we only want to use Epoch's 0 and 1 to estimate the coefficients for the base model
reg\_X = df.loc\ [mask, \ \].shift(1).iloc\
reg\_y = df.loc\ .iloc\
reg\_X = sm.add\_constant(reg\_X)
ols = sm.OLS(reg\_y, reg\_X).fit()
coefs = ols.params.values
print(coefs)
The result of this regression gives us the coefficients for the betas of the base model:
\
or in more human readable form: 0.029, 0.996869586, -0.00043. NB that for the auto-correlation/momentum beta, we did NOT round the significant figures at all. Since the momentum is so important in this model, we must use all available significant figures.
Fundamental Insights from the Base Model
Momentum effect: The term 0.997 Y suggests that the exchange rate of Bitcoin on a given day (Yi) is heavily influenced by the exchange rate on the previous day. This indicates a momentum effect, where the price of Bitcoin tends to follow its recent trend.
Momentum effect is a phenomenon observed in various financial markets, including stocks and other commodities. It implies that an asset’s price is more likely to continue moving in its current direction, either upwards or downwards, over the short term.
The momentum effect can be driven by several factors:
Behavioural biases: Investors may exhibit herding behaviour or be subject to cognitive biases such as confirmation bias, which could lead them to buy or sell assets based on recent trends, reinforcing the momentum.
Positive feedback loops: As more investors notice a trend and act on it, the trend may gain even more traction, leading to a self-reinforcing positive feedback loop. This can cause prices to continue moving in the same direction, further amplifying the momentum effect.
Technical analysis: Many traders use technical analysis to make investment decisions, which often involves studying historical exchange rate trends and chart patterns to predict future exchange rate movements. When a large number of traders follow similar strategies, their collective actions can create and reinforce exchange rate momentum.
Impact of halving events: In the Bitcoin network, new bitcoins are created as a reward to miners for validating transactions and adding new blocks to the blockchain. This reward is called the block reward, and it is halved approximately every four years, or every 210,000 blocks. This event is known as a halving.
The primary purpose of halving events is to control the supply of new bitcoins entering the market, ultimately leading to a capped supply of 21 million bitcoins. As the block reward decreases, the rate at which new bitcoins are created slows down, and this can have significant implications for the price of Bitcoin.
The term -0.0004*(50/(2^epochk) — (epochk+1)²) accounts for the impact of the halving events on the Bitcoin exchange rate. The model seems to suggest that the exchange rate of Bitcoin is influenced by a function of the number of halving events that have occurred.
Exponential decay and the decreasing impact of the halvings: The first part of this term, 50/(2^epochk), indicates that the impact of each subsequent halving event decays exponentially, implying that the influence of halving events on the Bitcoin exchange rate diminishes over time. This might be due to the decreasing marginal effect of each halving event on the overall Bitcoin supply as the block reward gets smaller and smaller.
This is antithetical to the wrong and popular stock to flow model, which suggests the opposite. Given the accuracy of the BAERM, this is yet another reason to question the S2F model, from a fundamental perspective.
The second part of the term, (epochk+1)², introduces a non-linear relationship between the halving events and the exchange rate. This non-linear aspect could reflect that the impact of halving events is not constant over time and may be influenced by various factors such as market dynamics, speculation, and changing market conditions.
The combination of these two terms is expressed by the graph of the model line (see figure 3), where it can be seen the step from each halving is decaying, and the step up from each halving event is given by a parabolic curve.
NB - The base model has been trained on the first two halving epochs and then seeded (i.e. the first lag point) with the oldest data available.
Constant term: The constant term 0.03 in the equation represents an inherent baseline level of growth in the Bitcoin exchange rate.
In any linear or linear-like model, the constant term, also known as the intercept or bias, represents the value of the dependent variable (in this case, the log-scaled Bitcoin USD exchange rate) when all the independent variables are set to zero.
The constant term indicates that even without considering the effects of the previous day’s exchange rate or halving events, there is a baseline growth in the exchange rate of Bitcoin. This baseline growth could be due to factors such as the network’s overall growth or increasing adoption, or changes in the market structure (more exchanges, changes to the regulatory environment, improved liquidity, more fiat on-ramps etc).
Base Model Regression Diagnostics
Below is a summary of the model generated by the OLS function
OLS Regression Results
\==============================================================================
Dep. Variable: logprice R-squared: 0.999
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.999
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 2.041e+06
Date: Fri, 28 Apr 2023 Prob (F-statistic): 0.00
Time: 11:06:58 Log-Likelihood: 3001.6
No. Observations: 2182 AIC: -5997.
Df Residuals: 2179 BIC: -5980.
Df Model: 2
Covariance Type: nonrobust
\==============================================================================
coef std err t P>|t| \
\------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const 0.0292 0.009 3.081 0.002 0.011 0.048
logprice 0.9969 0.001 1012.724 0.000 0.995 0.999
phaseplus -0.0004 0.000 -2.239 0.025 -0.001 -5.3e-05
\==============================================================================
Omnibus: 674.771 Durbin-Watson: 1.901
Prob(Omnibus): 0.000 Jarque-Bera (JB): 24937.353
Skew: -0.765 Prob(JB): 0.00
Kurtosis: 19.491 Cond. No. 255.
\==============================================================================
Below we see some regression diagnostics along with the regression itself.
Diagnostics: We can see that the residuals are looking a little skewed and there is some heteroskedasticity within the residuals. The coefficient of determination, or r2 is very high, but that is to be expected given the momentum term. A better r2 is manually calculated by the sum square of the difference of the model to the untrained data. This can be achieved by the following code:
\# Calculate the out-of-sample R-squared
oos\_mask = df\ >= 2
oos\_actual = df.loc\
oos\_predicted = df.loc\
residuals\_oos = oos\_actual - oos\_predicted
SSR = np.sum(residuals\_oos \*\* 2)
SST = np.sum((oos\_actual - oos\_actual.mean()) \*\* 2)
R2\_oos = 1 - SSR/SST
print("Out-of-sample R-squared:", R2\_oos)
The result is: 0.84, which indicates a very close fit to the out of sample data for the base model, which goes some way to proving our fundamental assumption around subjective value and sound money to be accurate.
Step 2: Adding the Damping Function
Next, we incorporated a damping function to capture the cyclical nature of bull and bear markets. The optimal parameters for the damping function were determined by regressing on the residuals from the base model. The damping function enhances the model’s ability to identify and predict bull and bear cycles in the Bitcoin market. The addition of the damping function to the base model is expressed as the full model equation.
This brings me to the question — why? Why add the damping function to the base model, which is arguably already performing extremely well out of sample and providing valuable insights into the exchange rate movements of Bitcoin.
Fundamental reasoning behind the addition of a damping function:
Subjective Theory of Value: The cyclical component of the damping function, represented by the cosine function, can be thought of as capturing the periodic fluctuations in market sentiment. These fluctuations may arise from various factors, such as changes in investor risk appetite, macroeconomic conditions, or technological advancements. Mathematically, the cyclical component represents the frequency of these fluctuations, while the phase shift (α and β) allows for adjustments in the alignment of these cycles with historical data. This flexibility enables the damping function to account for the heterogeneity in market participants’ preferences and expectations, which is a key aspect of the subjective theory of value.
Time Preference and Market Cycles: The exponential decay component of the damping function, represented by the term e^(-0.0004t), can be linked to the concept of time preference and its impact on market dynamics. In financial markets, the discounting of future cash flows is a common practice, reflecting the time value of money and the inherent uncertainty of future events. The exponential decay in the damping function serves a similar purpose, diminishing the influence of past market cycles as time progresses. This decay term introduces a time-dependent weight to the cyclical component, capturing the dynamic nature of the Bitcoin market and the changing relevance of past events.
Interactions between Cyclical and Exponential Decay Components: The interplay between the cyclical and exponential decay components in the damping function captures the complex dynamics of the Bitcoin market. The damping function effectively models the attenuation of past cycles while also accounting for their periodic nature. This allows the model to adapt to changing market conditions and to provide accurate predictions even in the face of significant volatility or structural shifts.
Now we have the fundamental reasoning for the addition of the function, we can explore the actual implementation and look to other analogies for guidance —
Financial and physical analogies to the damping function:
Mathematical Aspects: The exponential decay component, e^(-0.0004t), attenuates the amplitude of the cyclical component over time. This attenuation factor is crucial in modelling the diminishing influence of past market cycles. The cyclical component, represented by the cosine function, accounts for the periodic nature of market cycles, with α determining the frequency of these cycles and β representing the phase shift. The constant term (+3) ensures that the function remains positive, which is important for practical applications, as the damping function is added to the rest of the model to obtain the final predictions.
Analogies to Existing Damping Functions: The damping function in the BAERM is similar to damped harmonic oscillators found in physics. In a damped harmonic oscillator, an object in motion experiences a restoring force proportional to its displacement from equilibrium and a damping force proportional to its velocity. The equation of motion for a damped harmonic oscillator is:
x’’(t) + 2γx’(t) + ω₀²x(t) = 0
where x(t) is the displacement, ω₀ is the natural frequency, and γ is the damping coefficient. The damping function in the BAERM shares similarities with the solution to this equation, which is typically a product of an exponential decay term and a sinusoidal term. The exponential decay term in the BAERM captures the attenuation of past market cycles, while the cosine term represents the periodic nature of these cycles.
Comparisons with Financial Models: In finance, damped oscillatory models have been applied to model interest rates, stock prices, and exchange rates. The famous Black-Scholes option pricing model, for instance, assumes that stock prices follow a geometric Brownian motion, which can exhibit oscillatory behavior under certain conditions. In fixed income markets, the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model for interest rates also incorporates mean reversion and stochastic volatility, leading to damped oscillatory dynamics.
By drawing on these analogies, we can better understand the technical aspects of the damping function in the BAERM and appreciate its effectiveness in modelling the complex dynamics of the Bitcoin market. The damping function captures both the periodic nature of market cycles and the attenuation of past events’ influence.
Conclusion
In this article, we explored the Bitcoin Auto-correlation Exchange Rate Model (BAERM), a novel 2-step linear regression model for understanding the Bitcoin USD exchange rate. We discussed the model’s components, their interpretations, and the fundamental insights they provide about Bitcoin exchange rate dynamics.
The BAERM’s ability to capture the fundamental properties of Bitcoin is particularly interesting. The framework underlying the model emphasises the importance of individuals’ subjective valuations and preferences in determining prices. The momentum term, which accounts for auto-correlation, is a testament to this idea, as it shows that historical price trends influence market participants’ expectations and valuations. This observation is consistent with the notion that the price of Bitcoin is determined by individuals’ preferences based on past information.
Furthermore, the BAERM incorporates the impact of Bitcoin’s supply dynamics on its price through the halving epoch terms. By acknowledging the significance of supply-side factors, the model reflects the principles of sound money. A limited supply of money, such as that of Bitcoin, maintains its value and purchasing power over time. The halving events, which reduce the block reward, play a crucial role in making Bitcoin increasingly scarce, thus reinforcing its attractiveness as a store of value and a medium of exchange.
The constant term in the model serves as the baseline for the model’s predictions and can be interpreted as an inherent value attributed to Bitcoin. This value emphasizes the significance of the underlying technology, network effects, and Bitcoin’s role as a medium of exchange, store of value, and unit of account. These aspects are all essential for a sound form of money, and the model’s ability to account for them further showcases its strength in capturing the fundamental properties of Bitcoin.
The BAERM offers a potential robust and well-founded methodology for understanding the Bitcoin USD exchange rate, taking into account the key factors that drive it from both supply and demand perspectives.
In conclusion, the Bitcoin Auto-correlation Exchange Rate Model provides a comprehensive fundamentally grounded and hopefully useful framework for understanding the Bitcoin USD exchange rate.
MACD by Take and TradeImproved version of MACD with asymmetrical BUY and SELL approaches.
This indicator is based on popular MACD one, but with some "tricks" designed to make it more applicable to the rapidly changing crypto market.
Key benefits:
Dynamic auto-adjusted threshold to filter out weak signals
Highlighted BUY/SELL signals with divergence (if a signal is accompanied by divergence, for example, price makes a new high while macd has a second high below the first, this signal is considered stronger and will be highlighted in a darker color)
Boost BUY signals on very slow market in accumulation phase
Not symmetric! It uses 2 different signal lines, which allows to obtain SELL signals earlier comparing to classic MACD approach
Classic concept of MACD
Classic MACD, in its simplest case, consists of two lines - macd line and signal line. Macd line is a difference between so-called "fast" and "slow" EMA lines (there are just a Exponential Moving Average lines with different windows: "12" for fast and "26" for slow). Signal line is just a smoothed "macd" line.
When macd line crosses signal line from bottom to up and intersection point < 0, this is "BUY" signal. And vise versa, when macd line crosses signal line from top to bottom, and intersection point > 0, this is "SELL" signal.
Parameters used in default configuration of classic MACD indicator:
Fast line: EMA-12
Slow line: EMA-26
Signal line: EMA-9
Problem of classic concept
Classic MACD indicator usually gives not bad "BUY" signals, especially if using them not for operational trading but for "investment" strategy. But "SELL" signalls usually generated too late. Simply because the market tends to fall much faster than it rises.
Possible solution (the main feature of our version of MACD)
To make indicator react faster on SELL condition, while still keeping it reliable for BUY signals, we decided to use two signal lines . Faster than default signal line (with window=6) for BUY signals and much faster than default (with window=2) for SELL signals.
This approach allowed us to receive sell signals earlier and exit deals on more favorable prices. Trade off of this change - is the number of SELL signals - there were more of them. However, this does not matter, since we receive the very first sell signal with a "very fast signal line" much earlier than with classic indicator settings.
Parameters we use in our improved MACD indicator:
Fast line: EMA-12
Slow line: EMA-24
Faster signal line: EMA-6
Much faster signal line: EMA-2
Removing noise (false triggerings)
Other drawback of classic MACD - it generates a lot of "weak" (false) signals. This signals are generated when macd crosses signal line much close to zero-line. And usually there are a lot of such intersections.
To remove this kind of noise, we added a trigger threshold, which by default is equal to 2.5% of the average asset price over a long period of time. Due to the link to the average price, this threshold automatically takes a specific value for each trading pair. Threshold 2.5% works perfect for all trading pairs for 1D timeframe. For other timeframes user can (and maybe will want) change it.
Boost weak BUY signals in a prolonged bear market
Signals on bearish stage are usually very weak, because there is no volatility, and no price impulse. And such signals will be filtered out as "noise" - see above. But this time is perfect time to buy! Therefore, we further boost the buy signals in a prolonged bear market so that they can pass through the filter and appear on the chart. Bearish period is the best time to invest!
Developed by Take and Trade. Enjoy using it!
Grucha Percentage Index (GPI) V2Grucha Percentage Index originally created by Polish coder named Grzegorz Antosiewicz in 2011 as mql code. This code is adapted by his original code to tradingview's pinescript.
What Does it Do
GPI is an oscillator that finds the lowest/highest prices with certain depth and generates signals by comparing the bull and bear bars. It use two lines, one is the original GPI calculation, the other is the smoothed version of the original line.
How to Use
GPI can catch quick volatility based movements and can be used as a confirmation indicator along with your existing trading system. When GDI (default color yellow) crosses above the GDI MA (default colored blue) it can be considered as a bullish movement and reverse can be considered as bearish movement.
How does it Work
The main calculation is done via the code below:
for i=0 to length
if candleC < 0
minus += candleC
if candleC >= 0
plus -= candleC
Simply we are adding green and red bars seperately and then getting their percentage to the bullish movement to reflect correctly in a 0-100 z-score enviroment via the code below:
res = (math.abs(minus)/sum)*100
Rest is all about plotting the results and adding seperate line with smoothing.
Note
These kind of oscillators are not designed to be used alone for signal generation but rather should be used in combination with different indicators to increase reliability of your signals.
Happy Trading.
CBO (Candle Bias Oscillator)The Candle Bias Oscillator (CBO) with volume and ATR scaling is a unique technical analysis tool designed to capture market sentiment through the analysis of candlestick patterns, volume momentum, and market volatility. This indicator is built on the foundation of assessing the bias within a candlestick's body and wicks, adjusted for market volatility using the Average True Range (ATR), and further refined by comparing the Rate of Change (ROC) in volume and the adjusted bias. The culmination of these calculations results in the CBO, a smoothed oscillator that highlights potential market turning points through divergence analysis.
Key Features:
Bias Calculations: Utilizes the relationship between the candle's body and wicks to determine the market's immediate bias, offering a nuanced view beyond simple price action. Have you ever wanted to quantify exactly how bullish or bearish a particular candle or candlestick pattern is? Whether it's dojis, hammers, engulfing, gravestones, evening morning star, three soldiers etc. you don't have to memorize 50 candlestick patterns anymore.
Volatility Adjustment: Employs the ATR to adjust the bias calculation, ensuring the oscillator remains relevant across varying market conditions by accounting for volatility.
Momentum and Divergence: Measures the momentum in volume and bias through ROC calculations, identifying divergence that may signal reversals or significant price movements.
Signal Line: A smoothed version of the CBO, derived from its own values, serving as a benchmark for identifying potential crossovers and divergences.
Utility and Application:
The CBO with Divergence Scaling is developed for traders who seek a deeper understanding of market dynamics beyond price movements alone. It is particularly useful for identifying potential reversals or continuation patterns early, by highlighting divergence between market sentiment (as expressed through candlestick bias) and actual volume movements. In this way, it aligns us retail traders with institutional traders and smart money. This indicator is versatile and can be applied across various time frames and market instruments, offering value to both short-term traders and long-term investors.
How to Use:
Trend Identification: The direction and value of the CBO provide insights into the prevailing market trend. A positive oscillator value may indicate bullish sentiment, while a negative value suggests bearish sentiment.
Signal Line Crossovers: Crossovers between the CBO and its signal line can be used as potential buy or sell signals. A crossover above the signal line might indicate a buying opportunity, whereas a crossover below could suggest a selling point.
Divergence: Discrepancies between the CBO and price action (especially when confirmed by volume ROC) can highlight potential reversals.
Customization and Parameters: This script allows users to adjust several parameters, including oscillator periods, signal line periods, ATR periods, and ROC periods for divergence, to best fit their trading strategy and the characteristics of the market they are analyzing.
Conclusion:
The Custom Bias Oscillator with Divergence Scaling is a comprehensive tool designed to offer traders a multi-faceted view of market conditions, combining elements of price action, volatility, and momentum. By integrating these aspects into a single indicator, it aims to provide a more rounded and actionable insight into market trends and potential turning points.
To comply with best practices and ensure clarity regarding the informational nature of the Custom Bias Oscillator (CBO) tool, it's crucial to include a disclaimer about the non-advisory nature of the script. Here's a suitable disclaimer that you can add to the end of your script description or publication:
Disclaimer:
The Custom Bias Oscillator (CBO) with Divergence Scaling and its accompanying analysis are provided as tools for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The creator of this indicator does not guarantee any specific outcomes or profit, and all users should be aware of the risks involved in trading and investing. Users should conduct their own research and consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The use of this indicator is at the user's own risk, and the creator bears no responsibility for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this tool or the information provided herein.
GG - LevelsThe GG Levels indicator is a tool designed for day trading U.S. equity futures. It highlights key levels intraday, overnight, intermediate-swing levels that are relevant for intraday futures trading.
Terminology
RTH (Regular Trading Hours): Represents the New York session from 09:30 to 17:00 EST.
ON Session (Overnight Session): Represents the trading activity from 17:00 to 09:29 EST.
IB (Initial Balance): The first hour of the New York session, from 09:30 to 10:30 EST.
Open: The opening price of the RTH session.
YH (Yesterday's High): The highest price during the RTH session of the previous day.
YL (Yesterday's Low): The lowest price during the RTH session of the previous day.
YC (Yesterday's Close): The daily bar close which for futures gets updated to settlement.
IBH (Initial Balance High): The highest price during the IB session.
IBL (Initial Balance Low): The lowest price during the IB session.
ONH (Overnight High): The highest price during the ON session.
ONL (Overnight Low): The lowest price during the ON session.
VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price): The volume-weighted average price that resets each day.
Why is RTH Important?
Tracking the RTH session is important because often times the overnight session can be filled with "lies". It is thought that because the overnight session is lower volume price can be pushed or "manipulated" to extremes that would not happen during higher volume times.
Why is the ON Session Important Then?
Just because the ON session can be thought as a "lie" doesn't mean it is relevant to know. For example, if price is stuck inside the ON range then you can think of the market as rotational or range-bound. If price is above the ON range then it can be thought of as bullish. If price is below the ON range then it can be thought as bearish.
What is IB?
IB or initial balance is the first hour of the New York Session. Typically the market sets the tone for the day in the first hour. This tone is similarly a map like the ON session. If we are above the IBH then it is bullish and likely a trend day to the upside. If we are below the IBL then it is bearish and likely a trend day to the downside. If we are in IB then we want to avoid conducting business in the middle of IBH and IBL to avoid getting chopped up in a range bound market.
These levels are not a holy grail
You should use this indicator as guide or map for context about the instrument you are trading. You need to combine your own technical analysis with this indicator. You want as much context confirming your trade thesis in order to enter a trade. Simply buying or selling because we are above or below a level is not recommended in any circumstance. If it were that easy I would not publish this indicator.
Adjustments
In the indicator settings you can adjust the RTH, ON, and IB session-time settings. All of the times entered must be in EST (Eastern Standard Time). You may want to do this to apply the levels to a foreign market.
Examples
Crypto Stablecoin Supply - Indicator [presentTrading]█ Introduction and How it is Different
The "Stablecoin Supply - Indicator" differentiates itself by focusing on the aggregate supply of major stablecoins—USDT, USDC, and DAI—rather than traditional price-based metrics. Its premise is that fluctuations in the total supply of these stablecoins can serve as leading indicators for broader market movements, offering traders a unique vantage point to anticipate shifts in market sentiment.
BTCUSD 6h for recent bull market
BTCUSD 8h
█ Strategy, How it Works: Detailed Explanation
🔶 Data Collection
The strategy begins with the collection of the closing supply for USDT, USDC, and DAI stablecoins. This data is fetched using a specified timeframe (**`tfInput`**), allowing for flexibility in analysis periods.
🔶 Supply Calculation
The individual supplies of USDT, USDC, and DAI are then aggregated to determine the total stablecoin supply within the market at any given time. This combined figure serves as the foundation for the subsequent statistical analysis.
🔶 Z-Score Computation
The heart of the indicator's strategy lies in the computation of the Z-Score, which is a statistical measure used to identify how far a data point is from the mean, relative to the standard deviation. The formula for the Z-Score is:
Z = (X - μ) / σ
Where:
- Z is the Z-Score
- X is the current total stablecoin supply (TotalStablecoinClose)
- μ (mu) is the mean of the total stablecoin supply over a specified length (len)
- σ (sigma) is the standard deviation of the total stablecoin supply over the same length
A moving average of the Z-Score (**`zScore_ma`**) is calculated over a short period (defaulted to 3) to smooth out the volatility and provide a clearer signal.
🔶 Signal Interpretation
The Z-Score itself is plotted, with its color indicating its relation to a defined threshold (0.382), serving as a direct visual cue for market sentiment. Zones are also highlighted to show when the Z-Score is within certain extreme ranges, suggesting overbought or oversold conditions.
Bull -> Bear
█ Trade Direction
- **Entry Threshold**: A Z-Score crossing above 0.382 suggests an increase in stablecoin supply relative to its historical average, potentially indicating bullish market sentiment or incoming capital flow into cryptocurrencies.
- **Exit Threshold**: Conversely, a Z-Score dropping below -0.382 may signal a reduction in stablecoin supply, hinting at bearish sentiment or capital withdrawal.
█ Usage
Traders can leverage the "Stablecoin Supply - Indicator" to gain insights into the underlying market dynamics that are not immediately apparent through price analysis alone. It is particularly useful for identifying potential shifts in market sentiment before they are reflected in price movements. By integrating this indicator with other technical analysis tools, traders can develop a more rounded and informed trading strategy.
█ Default Settings
- Timeframe Input (`tfInput`): Allows users to specify the timeframe for data collection, adding flexibility to the analysis.
- Z-Score Length (`len`): Set to 252 by default, representing the period over which the mean and standard deviation of the stablecoin supply are calculated.
- Color Coding: Uses distinct colors (green for bullish, red for bearish) to indicate the Z-Score's position relative to its thresholds, enhancing visual clarity.
- Extreme Range Fill: Highlights areas between defined high and low Z-Score thresholds with distinct colors to indicate potential overbought or oversold conditions.
By integrating considerations of stablecoin supply into the analytical framework, the "Stablecoin Supply - Indicator" offers a novel perspective on cryptocurrency market dynamics, enabling traders to make more nuanced and informed decisions.
Pattern indicatorRules are pretty simple for this indicator .we are searching candlestick pattern on current day high and low ..
*** Candlestick we are looking for ***
1) Bullish/Bearish Engulfing 2) Bearish/Bullish Harami 3)Hammer/Inverted Hammer
Rule for searching bullish candlestick ====>
1) searching for current day high and day low
2) looking for candlestick as Bullish Engulfing or Bullish Harami or Hammer
3) if we got both rule 1 and rule 2 we are getting label ex- bullish engulfing
4) we can Enable/Disable Candlestick we don't want to search
Rule for bearish candles ====>
1) searching for current day high and day low
2) looking for candlestick as Bearish Engulfing or Bearish Harami or inverted hammer
3) if we got both rule 1 and rule 2 we are getting label ex- bullish engulfing
4) we can Enable/Disable Candlestick we don't want to search
Note -- i have created all indicator calculation ....
Disclaimer: market involves significant risks, including complete possible loss of funds. Consequently trading is not suitable for all investors and traders. By increasing leverage risk increases as well.With the demo account you can test any trading strategies you wish in a risk-free environment. Please bear in mind that the results of the transactions of the practice account are virtual, and do not reflect any real profit or loss or a real trading environment, whereas market conditions may affect both the quotation and execution
Weekly BiasWeekly Bias
For H1 time frame and below.
Horizontal Line Plots every week.
Condition for line is 12am EST on Monday.
Price above, line is green~ potential bullishness.
Price below, line is red~ potential bearishness.
This line gives us potential sentiment for any given week on any given forex market.
If you have any questions, or want access to other indicators, please message me.
Golden Cross and Death Cross with ProbabilityThe Advanced Golden and Death Crossover Indicator offers traders a powerful tool for identifying potential buy and sell signals through the classic technical analysis method of moving average crossovers. This script enhances decision-making by dynamically changing the chart background color in response to Golden (bullish) and Death (bearish) crossovers, providing a visual representation of the market's momentum.
Features:
Golden and Death Crossover Detection: Utilizes a 50-period SMA and a 200-period SMA to identify potential buy (golden cross) and sell (death cross) points.
Continuous Background Coloring: Changes the chart's background color to green for golden crosses and red for death crosses, offering an intuitive grasp of market trends.
Customizable Lookback Period: Allows users to adjust the lookback period for calculating the success rate of each crossover, making the indicator adaptable to various trading strategies.
Success Rate Calculation: Provides an additional layer of analysis by calculating the historical success rate of crossovers within the specified lookback period.
Instructions:
Adding the Indicator: Search for "Advanced Golden and Death Crossover Indicator" in the TradingView Indicators & Strategies library and add it to your chart.
Customization: Access the indicator settings to adjust the lookback period according to your trading preferences.
Interpretation: Use the continuous background color as a guide to market conditions, with green indicating bullish momentum and red indicating bearish momentum. The success rate of past crossovers can help assess the reliability of the signals.
How the Script Works:
The Advanced Golden and Death Crossover Indicator operates by continuously monitoring two key moving averages (MAs) on your chart: a short-term (50-period) SMA and a long-term (200-period) SMA. Here's a step-by-step breakdown of its functionality:
Crossover Detection:
Golden Cross: When the short-term MA crosses above the long-term MA, indicating potential bullish momentum, the script identifies this as a Golden Cross signal.
Death Cross: Conversely, when the short-term MA crosses below the long-term MA, suggesting potential bearish momentum, the script flags this as a Death Cross signal.
Background Coloring:
Upon detecting a Golden Cross, the script changes the chart background to green, visually representing a bullish market condition.
Upon detecting a Death Cross, the chart background turns red, indicating bearish market conditions.
This color change remains in effect until the next crossover event, providing a continuous visual cue of the market's trend direction.
Success Rate Calculation:
The script calculates the historical success rate of these crossovers within a user-defined lookback period. This metric helps assess the reliability of the signals based on past performance.
Customization:
Users have the flexibility to adjust the lookback period for the success rate calculation, allowing for customization according to individual trading strategies and risk preferences.
Application in Trading Analysis:
Traders can use this indicator as part of their technical analysis toolkit to make informed decisions about entry and exit points. The visual cues from the continuous background coloring, combined with the success rate of past signals, provide a comprehensive overview of market trends and crossover reliability. It’s important for traders to combine this indicator with other analysis tools and consider broader market conditions to optimize their trading strategy.
Disclaimer:
This script is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Trading involves risk, and you should conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author or distributor of this script bears no responsibility for any trading losses incurred by users.
Advanced Engulfing CandlesThere are a plenty of Engulfing candle detecting indicators but every single of them detect engulfing candles engulfed by only single candle but sometime it take more then one candle to engulf the previous opposite candle, which is also considered as engulfing candle.
So this script show both type of candles.
Type of Engulfing Candles
Normal Engulfing Candles
Candle engulfed by more then one continuous candle
I hope you will like it.
If you find any bugs or have any suggestions for any possible addition feel free to comment or DM me.
Pivot Percentile Trend - Strategy [presentTrading]
█ Introduction and How it is Different
The "Pivot Percentile Trend - Strategy" from PresentTrading represents a paradigm shift in technical trading strategies. What sets this strategy apart is its innovative use of pivot percentiles, a method that goes beyond traditional indicator-based analyses. Unlike standard strategies that might depend on single-dimensional signals, this approach takes a multi-layered view of market movements, blending percentile calculations with SuperTrend indicators for a more nuanced and dynamic market analysis.
This strategy stands out for its ability to process multiple data points across various timeframes and pivot lengths, thereby capturing a broader and more detailed picture of market trends. It's not just about following the price; it's about understanding its position in the context of recent historical highs and lows, offering a more profound insight into potential market movements.
BTC 6h L/S
Where traditional methods might react to market changes, the Pivot Percentile Trend strategy anticipates them, using a calculated approach to identify trend strengths and weaknesses. This foresight gives traders a significant advantage, allowing for more strategic decision-making and potentially increasing the chances of successful trades.
In essence, this strategy introduces a more comprehensive and proactive approach to trading, harnessing the power of advanced percentile calculations combined with the robustness of SuperTrend indicators. It's a strategy designed for traders who seek a deeper understanding of market dynamics and a more calculated approach to their trading decisions.
Local picture
█ Strategy, How It Works: Detailed Explanation
🔶 Percentile Calculations
- The strategy employs percentile calculations to assess the relative position of current market prices against historical data.
- For a set of lengths (e.g., `length * 1`, `length * 2`, up to `length * 7`), it calculates the 75th percentile for high values (`percentilesHigh`) and the 25th percentile for low values (`percentilesLow`).
- These percentiles provide a sense of where the current price stands compared to recent price ranges.
Length - 10
Length - 15
🔶 SuperTrend Indicator
- The SuperTrend indicator is a key component, providing trend direction signals.
- It uses the `currentTrendValue`, derived from the difference between bull and bear strengths calculated from the percentile data.
* used the Supertrend toolkit by @EliCobra
🔶 Trend Strength Counts
- The strategy calculates counts of bullish and bearish indicators based on comparisons between the current high and low against high and low percentiles.
- `countBull` and `countBear` track the number of times the current high is above the high percentiles and the current low is below the low percentiles, respectively.
- Weak bullish (`weakBullCount`) and bearish (`weakBearCount`) counts are also determined by how often the current lows and highs fall within the percentile range.
*The idea of this strength counts mainly comes from 'Trend Strength Over Time' @federalTacos5392b
🔶 Trend Value Calculation
- The `currentTrendValue` is a crucial metric, computed as `bullStrength - bearStrength`.
- It indicates the market's trend direction, where a positive value suggests a bullish trend and a negative value indicates a bearish trend.
🔶 Trade Entry and Exit Logic
- The entry points for trades are determined by the combination of the trend value and the direction indicated by the SuperTrend indicator.
- For a long entry (`shouldEnterLong`), the `currentTrendValue` must be positive and the SuperTrend indicator should show a downtrend.
- Conversely, for a short entry (`shouldEnterShort`), the `currentTrendValue` should be negative with the SuperTrend indicating an uptrend.
- The strategy closes positions when these conditions reverse.
█ Trade Direction
The strategy is versatile, allowing traders to choose their preferred trading direction: long, short, or both. This flexibility enables traders to tailor their strategies to their market outlook and risk appetite.
█ Default Settings and Customization
1. Trade Direction: Selectable as Long, Short, or Both, affecting the type of trades executed.
2. Indicator Source: Pivot Percentile Calculations, key for identifying market trends and reversals.
3. Lengths for Percentile Calculation: Various configurable lengths, influencing the scope of trend analysis.
4. SuperTrend Settings: ATR Length 20, Multiplier 18, affecting indicator sensitivity and trend detection.
5. Style Options: Custom colors for bullish (green) and bearish (red) trends, aiding visual interpretation.
6. Additional Settings: Includes contrarian signals and UI enhancements, offering strategic and visual flexibility.
