Ripple (XRP) Model PriceAn article titled Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model was published in March 2019 by "PlanB" with mathematical model used to calculate Bitcoin model price during the time. We know that Ripple has a strong correlation with Bitcoin. But does this correlation have a definite rule?
In this study, we examine the relationship between bitcoin's stock-to-flow ratio and the ripple(XRP) price.
The Halving and the stock-to-flow ratio
Stock-to-flow is defined as a relationship between production and current stock that is out there.
SF = stock / flow
The term "halving" as it relates to Bitcoin has to do with how many Bitcoin tokens are found in a newly created block. Back in 2009, when Bitcoin launched, each block contained 50 BTC, but this amount was set to be reduced by 50% every 210,000 blocks (about 4 years). Today, there have been three halving events, and a block now only contains 6.25 BTC. When the next halving occurs, a block will only contain 3.125 BTC. Halving events will continue until the reward for minors reaches 0 BTC.
With each halving, the stock-to-flow ratio increased and Bitcoin experienced a huge bull market that absolutely crushed its previous all-time high. But what exactly does this affect the price of Ripple?
Price Model
I have used Bitcoin's stock-to-flow ratio and Ripple's price data from April 1, 2014 to November 3, 2021 (Daily Close-Price) as the statistical population.
Then I used linear regression to determine the relationship between the natural logarithm of the Ripple price and the natural logarithm of the Bitcoin's stock-to-flow (BSF).
You can see the results in the image below:
Basic Equation : ln(Model Price) = 3.2977 * ln(BSF) - 12.13
The high R-Squared value (R2 = 0.83) indicates a large positive linear association.
Then I "winsorized" the statistical data to limit extreme values to reduce the effect of possibly spurious outliers (This process affected less than 4.5% of the total price data).
ln(Model Price) = 3.3297 * ln(BSF) - 12.214
If we raise the both sides of the equation to the power of e, we will have:
============================================
Final Equation:
■ Model Price = Exp(- 12.214) * BSF ^ 3.3297
Where BSF is Bitcoin's stock-to-flow
============================================
If we put current Bitcoin's stock-to-flow value (54.2) into this equation we get value of 2.95USD. This is the price which is indicated by the model.
There is a power law relationship between the market price and Bitcoin's stock-to-flow (BSF). Power laws are interesting because they reveal an underlying regularity in the properties of seemingly random complex systems.
I plotted XRP model price (black) over time on the chart.
Estimating the range of price movements
I also used several bands to estimate the range of price movements and used the residual standard deviation to determine the equation for those bands.
Residual STDEV = 0.82188
ln(First-Upper-Band) = 3.3297 * ln(BSF) - 12.214 + Residual STDEV =>
ln(First-Upper-Band) = 3.3297 * ln(BSF) – 11.392 =>
■ First-Upper-Band = Exp(-11.392) * BSF ^ 3.3297
In the same way:
■ First-Lower-Band = Exp(-13.036) * BSF ^ 3.3297
I also used twice the residual standard deviation to define two extra bands:
■ Second-Upper-Band = Exp(-10.570) * BSF ^ 3.3297
■ Second-Lower-Band = Exp(-13.858) * BSF ^ 3.3297
These bands can be used to determine overbought and oversold levels.
Estimating of the future price movements
Because we know that every four years the stock-to-flow ratio, or current circulation relative to new supply, doubles, this metric can be plotted into the future.
At the time of the next halving event, Bitcoins will be produced at a rate of 450 BTC / day. There will be around 19,900,000 coins in circulation by August 2025
It is estimated that during first year of Bitcoin (2009) Satoshi Nakamoto (Bitcoin creator) mined around 1 million Bitcoins and did not move them until today. It can be debated if those coins might be lost or Satoshi is just waiting still to sell them but the fact is that they are not moving at all ever since. We simply decrease stock amount for 1 million BTC so stock to flow value would be:
BSF = (19,900,000 – 1.000.000) / (450 * 365) =115.07
Thus, Bitcoin's stock-to-flow will increase to around 115 until AUG 2025. If we put this number in the equation:
Model Price = Exp(- 12.214) * 114 ^ 3.3297 = 36.06$
Ripple has a fixed supply rate. In AUG 2025, the total number of coins in circulation will be about 56,000,000,000. According to the equation, Ripple's market cap will reach $2 trillion.
Note that these studies have been conducted only to better understand price movements and are not a financial advice.
在腳本中搜尋"bitcoin"
The Insider - Hunt Bitcoin CoT DeltaThe Insider - Hunt Bitcoin CoT Delta
The gift of the Squeeze in the Largest 4 open Interest Shorts vs Longs.
Why Bother another CoT signal?
Its different & focused on the Insider's.
Performance -
This Indicator provided a
1. Signal 1 = 26th March 2019 = SUPER LONG at $4,500 that saw a near $14,000 run up
2. Signal 2 = 18th & 24th June 2019 = SHORT at the second & final level $11,700 after repeated attempts & failure in the $13K range, the mini Echo Bitcoin Bull of 2019
3. Signal 3 = 17th December 2019 = LONG $6,900, Bitcoin rallied to Mid $10,500's
4. Signal 4 = 18th Feb 2020 = SUPER SHORT from $9,700's to a final extreme Low of $3,000, calling the CV-19 collapse
5. Signal 5 = 17th March 2020 = LONG from $5,400 no closure point yet
6. Signal 6 = 29th June 2020 = SUPER LONG reiterate from $10,700 no closure sell signal yet
7. Signal 7 = 17th May 2020 = LONG another accumulate LONG with no sell signal yet generated at Post H&S's low of $33,000
Note - This indicator only commences March 2019, as Bitcoin futures were a recent introduction and needed to settle for 6 months in both use and data, no signals were meaningful prior & data was light.
What is Provided. - Please note the need to also add the Hunt Bitcoin Historical Volatility Indicator for full understanding.
We provide 3 things with the 3 indicators.
'Insider' indications from Largest players in the futures market.
1. Bitcoin Macro Buy Signals.
a) The Bitcoin Commitment of Traders results see us focus solely on Largest 4 Short Open Interest & Largest 4 Long Open Interest aspects of the CoT Release data.
When the difference - is tight, a kind of pinch, these have been great Buy signals in Bitcoin.
We call this difference the Delta & When Delta is 5% or less Bitcoin is a Buy.
2. Bitcoin Macro Sells.
a) A sell signal is Triggered in Bitcoin at any point the Largest 4 short OI > or = to 70
3. AMPLIFIER Trade signals 'Super' Longs or Shorts -
Extreme low volatility events leads to highly impulsive & volatile subsequent moves, if either of 1 or 2 above occur, combined with extreme low volatility
a 'Super Long' or 'SUPER SELL' is generated. In the case of the short side, given Bitcoins general expansive and MACRO Bull trend since inception, we seek an additional component
that is an extreme differential/Delta reading between 4 biggest Longs & Shorts OI.
Namely CoT Delta also must be > 47.5%
We also have a Cautionary level, where it is not necessarily a good idea to accumulate Bitcon, as a better opportunity lower may avail itself, see conditions below.
So the required logic explicitly stated below for all Signals.
1. Long - Hunt Bitcoin CoT Delta < or = 5
2. SUPER Long - Hunt Bitcoin CoT Delta < or = 5; and 2 Day Historical Bitcoin Volatility = or < 20
3. Short - Largest 4 Sellers OI = or > 70
4. SUPER Short - Largest 4 Sellers OI = or > 70; AND..
Hunt Bitcoin CoT Delta = or > 47.5 AND 2 Day Historical BTC Volatility = or < 20
5. Caution - Largest 4 Sellers OI = or > 67.5 AND Hunt Bitcoin CoT Delta = or > 45
WARNING SEE Notes Below
Note 1 - = Largest 4 Open Interest Shorts
Note 2 - = Largest 4 Open Interest Longs
Note 3 - = Hunt Cot Delta = (Largest 4 sellers OI) -( Largest 4 Buyers OI)
Caution = Avoid new Bitcoin Accumulation Right Now, A sell signal might follow Enter on next Long
Note 4 - The Hunt Bitcoin COT Delta signal is a Largest 'Insider' Tracking tool based on a segment of Commitment of Traders data on Bitcoin Futures, released once a week on a Friday.
It is a Macro Timeframe signal , and should not be used for Day trading and Short Timeframe analysis , Entries may be optimised after a Hunt Bitcoin CoT Signal is generated by separate shorter Timeframe analysis.
Note 5 - The Historical Bitcoin Volatility is an additional 'Amplifier' component to the 'Hunt Bitcoin Cot Delta' Insider Signal
Note 6 - The Historical Bitcoin Volatility criteria varies by timeframe, the above levels are those applying on a Two Day TF Chart, select this custom timeframe in Trading View.
if additional criteria are met for LONG & SHORT insider signals, they may become 'Super Longs/Shorts', see conditions box above.
MVRV Ratio [Alpha Extract]The MVRV Ratio Indicator provides valuable insights into Bitcoin market cycles by tracking the relationship between market value and realized value. This powerful on-chain metric helps traders identify potential market tops and bottoms, offering clear buy and sell signals based on historical patterns of Bitcoin valuation.
🔶 CALCULATION The indicator processes MVRV ratio data through several analytical methods:
Raw MVRV Data: Collects MVRV data directly from INTOTHEBLOCK for Bitcoin
Optional Smoothing: Applies simple moving average (SMA) to reduce noise
Status Classification: Categorizes market conditions into four distinct states
Signal Generation: Produces trading signals based on MVRV thresholds
Price Estimation: Calculates estimated realized price (Current price / MVRV ratio)
Historical Context: Compares current values to historical extremes
Formula:
MVRV Ratio = Market Value / Realized Value
Smoothed MVRV = SMA(MVRV Ratio, Smoothing Length)
Estimated Realized Price = Current Price / MVRV Ratio
Distance to Top = ((3.5 / MVRV Ratio) - 1) * 100
Distance to Bottom = ((MVRV Ratio / 0.8) - 1) * 100
🔶 DETAILS Visual Features:
MVRV Plot: Color-coded line showing current MVRV value (red for overvalued, orange for moderately overvalued, blue for fair value, teal for undervalued)
Reference Levels: Horizontal lines indicating key MVRV thresholds (3.5, 2.5, 1.0, 0.8)
Zone Highlighting: Background color changes to highlight extreme market conditions (red for potentially overvalued, blue for potentially undervalued)
Information Table: Comprehensive dashboard showing current MVRV value, market status, trading signal, price information, and historical context
Interpretation:
MVRV ≥ 3.5: Potential market top, strong sell signal
MVRV ≥ 2.5: Overvalued market, consider selling
MVRV 1.5-2.5: Neutral market conditions
MVRV 1.0-1.5: Fair value, consider buying
MVRV < 1.0: Potential market bottom, strong buy signal
🔶 EXAMPLES
Market Top Identification: When MVRV ratio exceeds 3.5, the indicator signals potential market tops, highlighting periods where Bitcoin may be significantly overvalued.
Example: During bull market peaks, MVRV exceeding 3.5 has historically preceded major corrections, helping traders time their exits.
Bottom Detection: MVRV values below 1.0, especially approaching 0.8, have historically marked excellent buying opportunities.
Example: During bear market bottoms, MVRV falling below 1.0 has identified the most profitable entry points for long-term Bitcoin accumulation.
Tracking Market Cycles: The indicator provides a clear visualization of Bitcoin's market cycles from undervalued to overvalued states.
Example: Following the progression of MVRV from below 1.0 through fair value and eventually to overvalued territory helps traders position themselves appropriately throughout Bitcoin's market cycle.
Realized Price Support: The estimated realized price often acts as a significant
support/resistance level during market transitions.
Example: During corrections, price often finds support near the realized price level calculated by the indicator, providing potential entry points.
🔶 SETTINGS
Customization Options:
Smoothing: Toggle smoothing option and adjust smoothing length (1-50)
Table Display: Show/hide the information table
Table Position: Choose between top right, top left, bottom right, or bottom left positions
Visual Elements: All plots, lines, and background highlights can be customized for color and style
The MVRV Ratio Indicator provides traders with a powerful on-chain metric to identify potential market tops and bottoms in Bitcoin. By tracking the relationship between market value and realized value, this indicator helps identify periods of overvaluation and undervaluation, offering clear buy and sell signals based on historical patterns. The comprehensive information table delivers valuable context about current market conditions, helping traders make more informed decisions about market positioning throughout Bitcoin's cyclical patterns.
Rolling Correlation with Bitcoin V1.1 [ADRIDEM]Overview
The Rolling Correlation with Bitcoin script is designed to offer a comprehensive view of the correlation between the selected ticker and Bitcoin. This script helps investors understand the relationship between the performance of the current ticker and Bitcoin over a rolling period, providing insights into their interconnected behavior. Below is a detailed presentation of the script and its unique features.
Unique Features of the New Script
Bitcoin Comparison : Allows users to compare the correlation of the current ticker with Bitcoin, providing an analysis of their relationship.
Customizable Rolling Window : Enables users to set the length for the rolling window, adapting to different market conditions and timeframes. The default value is 252 bars, which approximates one year of trading days, but it can be adjusted as needed.
Smoothing Option : Includes an option to apply a smoothing simple moving average (SMA) to the correlation coefficient, helping to reduce noise and highlight trends. The smoothing length is customizable, with a default value of 4 bars.
Visual Indicators : Plots the smoothed correlation coefficient between the current ticker and Bitcoin, with distinct colors for easy interpretation. Additionally, horizontal lines help identify key levels of correlation.
Dynamic Background Color : Adds dynamic background colors to highlight areas of strong positive and negative correlations, enhancing visual clarity.
Originality and Usefulness
This script uniquely combines the analysis of rolling correlation for a current ticker with Bitcoin, providing a comparative view of their relationship. The inclusion of a customizable rolling window and smoothing option enhances its adaptability and usefulness in various market conditions.
Signal Description
The script includes several features that highlight potential insights into the correlation between the assets:
Rolling Correlation with Bitcoin : Plotted as a red line, this represents the smoothed rolling correlation coefficient between the current ticker and Bitcoin.
Horizontal Lines and Background Color : Lines at -0.5, 0, and 0.5 help to quickly identify regions of strong negative, weak, and strong positive correlations.
These features assist in identifying the strength and direction of the relationship between the current ticker and Bitcoin.
Detailed Description
Input Variables
Length for Rolling Window (`length`) : Defines the range for calculating the rolling correlation coefficient. Default is 252.
Smoothing Length (`smoothing_length`) : The number of periods for the smoothing SMA. Default is 4.
Bitcoin Ticker (`bitcoin_ticker`) : The ticker symbol for Bitcoin. Default is "BINANCE:BTCUSDT".
Functionality
Correlation Calculation : The script calculates the daily returns for both Bitcoin and the current ticker and computes their rolling correlation coefficient.
```pine
bitcoin_close = request.security(bitcoin_ticker, timeframe.period, close)
bitcoin_dailyReturn = ta.change(bitcoin_close) / bitcoin_close
current_dailyReturn = ta.change(close) / close
rolling_correlation = ta.correlation(current_dailyReturn, bitcoin_dailyReturn, length)
```
Smoothing : A simple moving average is applied to the rolling correlation coefficient to smooth the data.
```pine
smoothed_correlation = ta.sma(rolling_correlation, smoothing_length)
```
Plotting : The script plots the smoothed rolling correlation coefficient and includes horizontal lines for key levels.
```pine
plot(smoothed_correlation, title="Rolling Correlation with Bitcoin", color=color.rgb(255, 82, 82, 50), linewidth=2)
h_neg1 = hline(-1, "-1 Line", color=color.gray)
h_neg05 = hline(-0.5, "-0.5 Line", color=color.red)
h0 = hline(0, "Zero Line", color=color.gray)
h_pos05 = hline(0.5, "0.5 Line", color=color.green)
h1 = hline(1, "1 Line", color=color.gray)
fill(h_neg1, h_neg05, color=color.rgb(255, 0, 0, 90), title="Strong Negative Correlation Background")
fill(h_neg05, h0, color=color.rgb(255, 165, 0, 90), title="Weak Negative Correlation Background")
fill(h0, h_pos05, color=color.rgb(255, 255, 0, 90), title="Weak Positive Correlation Background")
fill(h_pos05, h1, color=color.rgb(0, 255, 0, 90), title="Strong Positive Correlation Background")
```
How to Use
Configuring Inputs : Adjust the rolling window length and smoothing length as needed. Ensure the Bitcoin ticker is set to the desired asset for comparison.
Interpreting the Indicator : Use the plotted correlation coefficient and horizontal lines to assess the strength and direction of the relationship between the current ticker and Bitcoin.
Signal Confirmation : Look for periods of strong positive or negative correlation to identify potential co-movements or divergences. The background colors help to highlight these key levels.
This script provides a detailed comparative view of the correlation between the current ticker and Bitcoin, aiding in more informed decision-making by highlighting the strength and direction of their relationship.
Blockunity Miners Synthesis (BMS)Track the status of Bitcoin and Ethereum Miners' Netflows and their asset reserves.
The Idea
The goal is to provide a simple tool for visualizing the changes in miners' flows and reserves.
How to Use
Analysing the behaviour of miners enables you to detect long-term opportunities, in particular with the state of reserves, but also in the shorter term with the visualization of Netflows.
Elements
Miners Reserves
Miners Reserves represent the balances of addresses belonging to mining pools (in BTC or ETH).
This data can also be displayed in USD via the indicator parameters:
Miners Netflow
The Netflow is calculated by subtracting the outflows from the inflows originating from addresses associated with mining pools. When this result is negative, it indicates that more funds are exiting the miners' accounts than the funds they are receiving. Consequently, negative miner netflows suggests selling activity.
This data can also be displayed in USD via the indicator parameters. You can also choose the timeframe. For example, selecting "Yearly" will give a Netflow daily average taking into account the last 365 days:
Settings
In the settings, you can first choose which asset to view, between Bitcoin and Ethereum. Here are the reserves of Ethereum miners:
As with Bitcoin, Netflow can also be displayed in the timeframe of your choice. Here you can see the average daily netflow of Ethereum miners in USD over the last 30 days:
Here are all the parameters:
Asset Selector: Choose between Bitcoin or Ethereum miner data.
Get values in USD: Displays values in USD instead of assets.
Switch between Netflow and Reserve : If checked, displays Miners' Reserves data. If unchecked, displays Miners' Netflow data.
Display timeframe: Allows you to select the timeframe for displaying the Netflow plot.
Period Lookback (in days): Select the period to be taken into account when calculating the variation percentage of Miners' Reserves.
Lastly, you can modify all table and labels parameters.
Blockchain Fundamentals: 200 Week MA Heatmap [CR]Blockchain Fundamentals: 200 Week MA Heatmap
This is released as a thank you to all my followers who pushed me over the 600 follower mark on twitter. Thanks to all you Kingz and Queenz out there who made it happen. <3
Indicator Overview
In each of its major market cycles, Bitcoin's price historically bottoms out around the 200 week moving average.
This indicator uses a color heatmap based on the % increases of that 200 week moving average. Depending on the rolling cumulative 4 week percent delta of the 200 week moving average, a color is assigned to the price chart. This method clearly highlights the market cycles of bitcoin and can be extremely helpful to use in your forecasts.
How It Can Be Used
The long term Bitcoin investor can monitor the monthly color changes. Historically, when we see orange and red dots assigned to the price chart, this has been a good time to sell Bitcoin as the market overheats. Periods where the price dots are purple and close to the 200 week MA have historically been good times to buy.
Bitcoin Price Prediction Using This Tool
If you are looking to predict the price of Bitcoin or forecast where it may go in the future, the 200WMA heatmap can be a useful tool as it shows on a historical basis whether the current price is overextending (red dots) and may need to cool down. It can also show when Bitcoin price may be good value on a historical basis. This can be when the dots on the chart are purple or blue.
Over more than ten years, $BTC has spent very little time below the 200 week moving average which is also worth noting when thinking about price predictions for Bitcoin or a Bitcoin price forecast.
Notes
1.) If you do not want to view the legend do the following: Indicator options > Style tab > Uncheck "Tables"
2.) I use my custom function to get around the limited historical data for bitcoin. You can check out the explanation of it here:
Blockchain Fundamentals - Active Address Sentiment Osc. [CR]Blockchain Fundamentals: Active Address Sentiment Oscillator AASO
Back with another script today, this one is a useful tool in helping to determine bitcoins value. We are looking at 2 data sources: the daily active addresses on the BTC blockchain, and the daily returns of BTC.
THIS INDICATOR WILL ONLY GIVE YOU THE CORRECT RESULTS ON THE DAILY TIMEFRAME
There is an interesting relationship that you can see by comparing the two timeseries. But for us to create a good indicator we first need to normalize the data. So we look at the percent change over the past 28 days for each metric (DAA and price).
THIS INDICATOR WILL ONLY GIVE YOU THE CORRECT RESULTS ON THE DAILY TIMEFRAME
We then calculate standard deviation bands around the DAA metric. We finalize them by averaging the bands over a 28 day period.
When the Price series (yellow line) is higher than the SD bands BTC is considered overvalued or price is overheated. A pullback could be expected soon. When the Price series is below the SD bands BTC is considered undervalued or price is oversold.
THIS INDICATOR WILL ONLY GIVE YOU THE CORRECT RESULTS ON THE DAILY TIMEFRAME
This tool doesnt give signals on the one minute chart or tell you exactly when to buy or sell. BUT what it does do is act as a convenient macro sentiment indicator that is not based completely upon price.
In an attempt to narrow down the really juicy areas, if you seen the background color highlights with white, that means its likely a top or bottom. At the very least on a local sense and many times in a cyclical macro sense as well. It also narrows down the signal to a generally more profitable area.
This indicator is not meant to be used on timeframes other than daily (did I mention that already?). I am lazy and did not code the calculations to be MTF (which is why you have to use on the daily chart). If you want to code this, please forward it on to me and I will post an update with a heartfelt credit to you.
The Real GBTC Premium (Capriole Investments)The real Grayscale Bitcoin (GBTC) premium / discount.
Charts the premium / discount of GBTC trust versus the Bitcoin spot price.
The GBTC premium / discount is frequently calculated incorrectly as it needs to consider the amount of Bitcoin behind each share of GBTC, which changes over time.
This indicator allows for an estimate of that change through time, a more realistic representation of 1 BTC to 1 BTC within GBTC.
If the chart is red, at a discount = can buy a synthetic Bitcoin (GBTC) at a discount to the underlying asset Bitcoin.
If the chart is green, at a premium = can buy a synthetic Bitcoin (GBTC) at a premium to the underlying asset Bitcoin.
The user should also consider that to-date, GBTC charges an annual fee which depletes the value within the GBTC trust. Grayscale wants to convert GBTC to an ETF, but its applications have so far been rejected by the SEC.
If GBTC is converted to an ETF in the future, we might expect that any GBTC discount shown here will be neutralized; potentially offering an additional return to any holder of GBTC, though this cannot be known for sure until such a conversion occurs.
BTC Multi Exchange Perpetual PremiumThis script tracks the premium/discount of Bitcoin perpetual contracts at various exchanges.
The premium/discount is calculated against an index price. The index price is calculated from spot exchange prices and are weighted as follows:
Bitstamp:28,81%
Bittrex:5,5%
Coinbase: 38,07%
Gemini: 7,34%
Kraken: 20,28
The difference between this script and other available scripts, is that exciting script seems to only focus on one exchange. This script is also open source.
Dominance Monitoralways a trader must check the bitcoins Dominance and if its ok can make a deal on AltCoins
this indicator Monitor the BTC.D and check the trend with ATR and give you results
please just check it in 1D timeframe
when the color was white you can easily trade and if the color was red you should be aware the risk and rest or maybe close the deals
BINANCE:EOSUSDT
be our guest
BTC FRACTAL ANN S-R LEVELS (Fixed ANN MACD)
This script is an adaptation of my deep learning system for Bitcoin to fractals.
Fractal codes are not belong to me. Original :
The code for the Deep learning (ANN MACD BTC) work belongs to me. Original:
I didn't get license for this script because the fractal codes don't belong to me.You can use it for any purpose.
This command can be a very helpful guide.You can use that fractals with your indicators for Bitcoin.
You can also combine these levels with ANN - MACD - BTC script.
Scripts about Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) will continue soon !
I hope it will help us to gain insight into technical analysis.
Best regards. Noldo.
BTC 1D Alerts V1This script contains a variety of key indicator for bitcoin all-in-one and they can be activated individually in the menu. These are meant to be used on the 1D chart for Bitcoin.
1457 Day Moving Average: the bottom of the bitcoin price and arguably the rock bottom price target.
Ichimoku Cloud: a common useful indicator for bitcoin support and resistance.
350ma fibs (21 8 5 3 2 and 1.6) : Signify the tops of each logarthmic rise in bitcoin price. They are generally curving higher over the long term. For halvening #3, the predicted market crash would be after hitting the 350ma x3 fib. Also the 350 ma / 111 ma cross signifies bull market top within about 3 days as well. Using the combination of the 350ma fibs and the 350/111 crosses, reasonably identify when market top is about to occur.
50,120,200 ma: Common moving averages that bitcoin retests during bull market runs. Also, the 50/200 golden and death crosses.
1D EMA Superguppy Ribbons: green = bull market, gray is indeterminate, red = bear market. Very high specificity indicator of bull runs, especially for bitcoin. You can change to 3D candle for even more specificity for a bull market start. Use the 1W for even more specificity. 1D Superguppy is recommended for decisionmaking.
1W EMA21: a very good moving average programmed to be shown on both the daily and weekly candle time. Bitcoin commonly corrects to this repeatedly during past bull runs. Acts as support during bull run and resistance during a bear market.
Steps to identifying a bull market:
1. 50/200 golden cross
2. 1D EMA superguppy green
3. 3D EMA superguppy green (if you prefer more certainty than step 2).
4. Hitting the 1W EMA21 and bouncing off during the bull run signifies corrections.
Once a bull market is identified,
Additional recommended buying and selling techniques:
Indicators:
- Fiblines - to determine retracements from peaks (such as all time high or recent highs)
- Stochastic RSI - 1d, 3d, and 1W SRSI are great time to buy, especially the 1W SRSI which comes much less frequently.
- volumen consolidado - for multi exchange volumes compiled into a single line. I prefer buying on the lowest volume days which generally coincide with dips.
- MACD - somewhat dubious utility but many algorithms are programmed to buy or sell based on this.
Check out the Alerts for golden crosses and 350ma Fib crosses which are invaluable for long term buying planning.
I left this open source so that all the formulas can be understood and verified. Much of it hacked together from other sources but all indicators that are fundamental to bitcoin. I apologize in advance for not attributing all the articles and references... but then again I am making no money off of this anyway.
Volumen Consolidado por DIVISAS contra BITCOIN #09/2019Volumen Consolidado de Bitcoin clasificado por divisas. Gracias a este indicador se podrá obtener la dominancia y participación en el mercado de las diferentes divisas o contratos. Actualmente el indicador incluye un aproximado de 40 pares de BTC contra diferentes divisas, en las cuales resaltan:
*USD
*USDT
*USDC
*XBT
*CNY
*KRW
*GBP
*EUR
Este indicador es un criterio utilizado para un indicador que estaré subiendo en proximamente, el cuál sí contará con el volumen total expresado en un solo panel. Es decir, este indicador, solo especifica una parte del indicador general, que será el volumen consolidado total, que este expresará la cantidad total de bitcoins negociados a nivel mundial. El USD es la moneda con la que el "Market Maker", respalda sus fondos para operar el mercado, cosa que sabemos, por lo tanto otras divisas serían solo un metodo de compra para el retailer(cosa que me motivó a la creación del indicador ya que se podría conocer el sentimiento y reacción de los mismos en lo que ocurre en el mercado).
Recordemos que el principal problema de los análisis que toman en cuenta el precio y volumen en bitcoin es que tradingview te da a conocer solo el "volumen del exchange", por lo tanto no obtienes una cifra exacta de los bitcoins comprados y/o vendidos en todos los sitios en los que se negocia, lo que dificulta tener una percepción objetiva de lo que sucede en el mercado, ya que te guiarías por el volumen que te da el exchange dónde operas y no el que es real.
Sin nada más que decir, espero que tome en cuenta este recurso para sus análisis, que será esencial para aquellos que operan con precio y volumen.
Si quiere realizar alguna colaboración y/o donación por mí obra, será muy bien bienvenida y agradecida:
BTC: 1TqvNSQs39pr2mLeDo3swcrkYvkK1YQAN
LTC: LKYYkJQHBvnEaJSatp53pg8C7iKp9Jp45B
ETH: 0x6e0902a16a0a0d6379cd8600c455a7ab335278cc
Hello Crypto! Modern Combo Snapshot
Unified long/short analyzer blending EMA structure, SuperTrend, WaveTrend, QQE, and volume pressure.
Background shading flags “watch” and “ready” states; optional long/short modules let you focus on one side.
Alerts fire when every checklist item aligns, while the side-panel table summarizes trend, momentum, liquidity, and overall score in real time.
Indicator → Trend Analysis
Indicator → Momentum Oscillators
Indicator → Volume Indicators
Tags:
cryptocurrency, bitcoin, altcoins, trend-following, momentum, volume, ema, supertrend, intraday, swing-trading, alerts, checklist, trading-strategy, risk-management
Puell Multiple Variants [OperationHeadLessChicken]Overview
This script contains three different, but related indicators to visualise Bitcoin miner revenue.
The classical Puell Multiple : historically, it has been good at signaling Bitcoin cycle tops and bottoms, but due to the diminishing rewards miners get after each halving, it is not clear how you determine overvalued and undervalued territories on it. Here is how the other two modified versions come into play:
Halving-Corrected Puell Multiple : The idea is to multiply the miner revenue after each halving with a correction factor, so overvalued levels are made comparable by a horizontal line across cycles. After experimentation, this correction factor turned out to be around 1.63. This brings cycle tops close to each other, but we lose the ability to see undervalued territories as a horizontal region. The third variant aims to fix this:
Miner Revenue Relative Strength Index (Miner Revenue RSI) : It uses RSI to map miner revenue into the 0-100 range, making it easy to visualise over/undervalued territories. With correct parameter settings, it eliminates the diminishing nature of the original Puell Multiple, and shows both over- and undervalued revenues correctly.
Example usage
The goal is to determine cycle tops and bottoms. I recommend using it on high timeframes, like monthly or weekly . Lower than that, you will see a lot of noise, but it could still be used. Here I use monthly as the example.
The classical Puell Multiple is included for reference. It is calculated as Miner Revenue divided by the 365-day Moving Average of the Miner Revenue . As you can see in the picture below, it has been good at signaling tops at 1,3,5,7.
The problems:
- I have to switch the Puell Multiple to a logarithmic scale
- Still, I cannot use a horizontal oversold territory
- 5 didn't touch the trendline, despite being a cycle top
- 9 touched the trendline despite not being a cycle top
Halving-Corrected Puell Multiple (yellow): Multiplies the Puell Multiple by 1.63 (a number determined via experimentation) after each halving. In the picture below, you can see how the Classical (white) and Corrected (yellow) Puell Multiples compare:
Advantages:
- Now you can set a constant overvalued level (12.49 in my case)
- 1,3,7 are signaled correctly as cycle tops
- 9 is correctly not signaled as a cycle top
Caveats:
- Now you don't have bottom signals anymore
- 5 is still not signaled as cycle top
Let's see if we can further improve this:
Miner Revenue RSI (blue):
On the monthly, you can see that an RSI period of 6, an overvalued threshold of 90, and an undervalued threshold of 35 have given historically pretty good signals.
Advantages:
- Uses two simple and clear horizontal levels for undervalued and overvalued levels
- Signaling 1,3,5,7 correctly as cycle tops
- Correctly does not signal 9 as a cycle top
- Signaling 4,6,8 correctly as cycle bottoms
Caveats:
- Misses two as a cycle bottom, although it was a long time ago when the Bitcoin market was much less mature
- In the past, gave some early overvalued signals
Usage
Using the example above, you can apply these indicators to any timeframe you like and tweak their parameters to obtain signals for overvalued/undervalued BTC prices
You can show or hide any of the three indicators individually
Set overvalued/undervalued thresholds for each => the background will highlight in green (undervalued) or red (overvalued)
Set special parameters for the given indicators: correction factor for the Corrected Puell and RSI period for Revenue RSI
Show or hide halving events on the indicator panel
All parameters and colours are adjustable
Gold–Bitcoin Correlation (Offset Model) by KManus88This indicator analyzes the correlation between Gold (XAU/USD) and Bitcoin (BTC/USD) using a time-offset model adjustable by the user.
The goal is to detect cyclical leads or lags between both assets, highlighting how capital flows into Gold may precede or follow movements in the crypto market.
Key Features:
Dynamic correlation calculation between Gold and Bitcoin.
Adjustable offset in days (default: 107) to fine-tune the temporal shift.
Automatic labels and on-chart visualization.
Compatible with multiple timeframes and logarithmic scales.
Interpretation:
Positive correlation suggests synchronized trends between both assets.
Negative correlation signals divergence or rotation of liquidity.
The time-offset parameter helps estimate when a shift in Gold could later reflect in Bitcoin.
Recommended use:
For macro-financial and global liquidity cycle analysis.
As a complementary tool in cross-asset momentum strategies.
© 2025 – Developed by KManus88 | Inspired by monetary correlation studies and global liquidity cycles.
This script is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Gold and Bitcoin: The Evolution of Value!The Eternal Luster of Gold
In the dawn of time, when the earth was young and rivers whispered secrets to the stones, a wanderer named Elara found a gleam in the silt of a sun-kissed stream. It was pure gold, radiant like a captured star fallen from the heavens. She held it in her palm, feeling its warmth pulse like a heartbeat, and in that moment, humanity’s soul awakened to the allure of eternity.
As seasons turned to centuries, gold wove itself into the story of empires. In ancient Egypt, pharaohs crowned themselves with its glow, believing it to be the flesh of gods. It built pyramids that reached for the sky and tombs that guarded kings forever. Across the sands in Mesopotamia, merchants traded it for spices and silks, its weight a promise of power and trust.
Translation moment: Gold became the first universal symbol of value. People trusted it more than words or promises because it did not rust, fade, or vanish.
The Greeks saw in gold not only wealth but wisdom, the symbol of the sun’s eternal fire. Alexander the Great carried it across the continent, forging an empire of golden threads. Rome rose on its back, minting coins whose clink echoed through history.
Through the ages, gold endured the rush of California’s dreamers, the halls of Versailles, and the quiet vaults of modern fortunes. It has been both a curse and a blessing, the fuel of wars and the gift of love, whispering of beauty’s fragility and the human desire for something that lasts beyond the grave. In its shine, we see ourselves fragile yet forever chasing light.
The Digital Dawn of Bitcoin
Centuries later, under the glow of computer screens, a visionary named Satoshi dreamed of a new gold born not from the earth but from the ether of ideas. Bitcoin appeared in 2009 amid a world weary of banks and broken trust.
Like gold’s ancient gleam, Bitcoin was mined not with picks but with puzzles solved by machines. It promised freedom, a currency without kings, flowing from person to person, unbound by borders or empires.
Translation moment: Bitcoin works like digital gold. Instead of digging the ground, miners use computers to solve problems and unlock new coins. No one controls it, and that is what makes it powerful.
Through doubt and frenzy, it rose as a beacon for those seeking sovereignty in a digital world. Its volatility became its soul, a reminder that true value is built on belief. Bitcoin speaks to ingenuity and rebellion, a star of code guiding us toward a future where wealth is weightless yet profoundly honest.
Gold’s Cycles: Echoes of War and Crisis
In the early 20th century, gold was held under fixed prices until the Great Depression of 1929 shattered these illusions. The 1934 dollar devaluation lifted it from 20.67 to 35, restoring faith amid despair. When World War II erupted in 1939, gold’s role as a refuge was muted by controls, yet it quietly held its place as the world’s silent guardian.
The 1970s awakened its wild spirit. The Nixon Shock of 1971 freed gold from 35, sparking a bull run during the 1973 Oil Crisis. The 1979 Iranian Revolution led to a 1980 peak of 850, a leap of more than 2,000 percent, as investors sought safety from the chaos.
Translation moment: When fear rises, people rush to gold. Every major war or economic crisis has sent gold upward because it feels safe when paper money loses trust.
The 1987 stock crash caused brief dips, but the 1990 Gulf War reignited its glow. Around 2000, after the Dot-com Bust, gold found new life, climbing from $ 270 to over $1,900 during the 2008 Financial Crisis. It dipped to 1050 in 2015, then surged again past 2000 during the 2020 pandemic.
The 2022 Ukraine War added another chapter with prices climbing above 2700 by 2025. Across a century of crises, gold has risen whenever fear tested humanity’s resolve, teaching patience and fortitude through its quiet endurance.
Bitcoin’s Cycles: Echoes of Innovation and Crisis
Born from the ashes of the 2008 Financial Crisis, Bitcoin began its story at mere cents. It traded below $1 until 2011, when it reached $30 before crashing by 90 percent following the MTGOX collapse.
In 2013, it soared to 1242 only to fall again to 200 in 2015 as regulations tightened. The 2017 bull run lifted it to nearly 20000 before another long winter brought it to 3200 in 2018. Each fall taught resilience, each rise renewed belief.
During the 2020 pandemic, it fell below 5000 before rallying to 69000 in 2021. The Ukraine War and the FTX collapse of 2022 brought it down to 16000, but also proved its role in humanitarian aid. By 2024, the halving and ETF approvals helped it break 100000, marking Bitcoin’s rise as digital gold.
Translation moment: Bitcoin’s rhythm follows four-year halving cycles when mining rewards are cut in half. This keeps supply limited, which often triggers new bull runs as demand returns.
Every four years, it's halving cycles 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024, fueling new waves of adoption and correction. Bitcoin grows strongest in times of uncertainty, echoing humanity’s drive to evolve beyond limits.
The Harmony of Gold and Bitcoin Modern Parallels
In today’s markets, gold’s ancient glow meets Bitcoin’s electric pulse. As of October 17, 2025, their correlation stands near 0.85, close to its historic high of 0.9. Both rise as guardians against inflation and the erosion of trust in the dollar.
Gold trades near 4310 per ounce a record high while Bitcoin hovers around 104700 showing brief fractures in their unity. Gold offers the comfort of touch while Bitcoin provides the thrill of code. Together, they reflect fear and hope, the twin emotions that drive every market.
Translation moment: A correlation of 0.85 means they often move in the same direction. When fear or inflation rises, both gold and Bitcoin tend to rise in tandem.
Analysts warn of bubbles in stocks, gold, and crypto, yet optimism remains for Bitcoin’s growth through 2026, while gold holds its defensive strength.
Gold carries risks of storage cost and theft, but steadiness in chaos. Bitcoin carries volatility and regulatory challenges, but it also offers unmatched innovation and reach. One is the anchor, the other the dream, and both reward those who hold conviction through uncertainty.
Epilogue: The Timeless Balance
Gold and Bitcoin form a bridge between the ancient and the future. Gold, the earth’s eternal treasure, stands as a symbol of stability and truth. Bitcoin, the digital heir, shines with the spark of innovation and freedom.
Experts view gold as the ultimate inflation hedge, forged in fire and tested over centuries. They see Bitcoin as its digital counterpart, scarce by code and limitless in reach.
Gold’s weight grounds us in reality while Bitcoin’s light expands our imagination. In 2025, as gold surpasses $4,346 and Bitcoin hovers near $105,000, the wise investor sees not rivals but reflections.
Translation moment: Gold reminds us to protect what we have. Bitcoin reminds us to dream of what could be. Together, they balance caution and courage, the two forces every generation must master.
One whispers of legacy, the other of evolution, yet together they tell humanity’s oldest story, our unending quest to preserve value against time and to chase the light that never fades.
🙏 I ask (Allah) for guidance and success. 🤲
Sentinel Nexus Dashboard [AGP] Ver.1.5Sentinel Nexus Dashboard is a versatile Pine Script designed as a comprehensive technical analysis tool. It condenses a variety of key indicators and metrics into a single, intuitive visual dashboard, providing an integrated view of market trends, momentum, volatility, and liquidity, all neatly organized on your TradingView chart.
Key Features and Benefits
All-in-One Dashboard: This script centralizes relevant information, offering a clean, efficient control panel that helps you make quick decisions without cluttering your chart with multiple overlays.
Trend Analysis with ADX: It incorporates the Average Directional Index (ADX) to measure trend strength. The dashboard displays ADX, DI+, and DI- values with dynamic color-coding to highlight trend intensity (e.g., blue for a very strong trend).
Momentum Analysis with MACD: The dashboard shows MACD line and signal line values in a table. The background color of the MACD values reflects the histogram's direction, allowing you to quickly identify crosses and shifts in market momentum.
Multi-Timeframe RSI Analysis: The RSI (Relative Strength Index) dashboard displays values across multiple timeframes (from 1 minute to 1 month). Overbought (77) and oversold (23) levels are color-coded for immediate identification of market conditions, making it an ideal tool for multi-timeframe analysis.
Smart and Dynamic Volume: The script uses a bar coloring algorithm based on average volume. Chart bars change color according to volume magnitude (extreme, high, average, or low) relative to the average, distinguishing between bullish and bearish bars. This helps you identify significant, liquidity-driven price movements.
Fair Value Analysis: The script calculates an asset's "fair value" using a noise filter (similar to a Kalman filter) on recent highs and lows to determine a midpoint. The price dashboard's background color changes to indicate if the current price is above or below this fair value.
Fibonacci EMA Analysis: A table displays several Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) based on the Fibonacci sequence. The values are color-coded to show whether the current price is above (white) or below (orange) each EMA, helping you quickly identify dynamic support and resistance levels.
CME Futures Data Integration: For Bitcoin, the script can show a chart label with the Bitcoin futures price (CME:BTC1!), allowing you to compare the spot price with the CME futures market.
Potential Uses and Applications
The Sentinel Nexus Dashboard is an excellent support tool for trading. It is not a signal system but rather a suite of confirmation tools that can be used to:
Confirm Trend Strength: Before entering a trade, use the ADX data to ensure the trend has enough strength for your expected move.
Detect Reversal Points: Multi-timeframe RSI data can alert you to potential overbought or oversold conditions, indicating possible exhaustion of a price move.
Validate Price Movements: Bar coloring based on volume helps you determine if a price move is genuine and supported by strong market participation. High volume can confirm a breakout or reversal.
Identify Support and Resistance: The Fibonacci EMAs allow you to quickly visualize key levels where price might find support or resistance, aiding in planning entries and exits.
In short, this script is perfect for traders who want a comprehensive market overview without chart clutter. It efficiently integrates trend, momentum, and volume analysis in one place.
Legal Disclaimer
RISK WARNING:
This Pine Script is a technical analysis tool and should not be considered financial advice. Past performance of any indicator is no guarantee of future results. Trading in financial markets involves a high risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. By using this indicator, you accept full responsibility for your trading decisions and acknowledge that any financial loss is your sole responsibility.
IMPORTANT:
Some script functions, such as the CME price label, may not work correctly if your TradingView subscription plan is not a paid one. Please check your plan's limitations to ensure the indicator's optimal functionality.
Spiderlines BTCUSD - daily/weekly📘 Documentation – Daily and Weekly Spider Lines for Bitcoin
🔹 Purpose of the Script
This script draws dynamic “Spider Lines” in the Bitcoin chart.
The lines connect certain historical candles with a reference candle and extend to the right.
These act as guideline levels that can serve as potential support or resistance zones.
🔹 How It Works
The script operates in two modes, depending on the active chart timeframe:
Weekly Mode (timeframe.isweekly)
The reference date is July 1, 2019.
The number of weeks since that date is calculated.
This defines the connection candle (connection_candle).
Several predefined offsets (e.g., +32, +34, +36 …) are added to the reference to determine starting candles.
Lines are drawn from these candles toward the connection candle.
→ Line color: green
Daily Mode (timeframe.isdaily)
Same reference date: July 1, 2019.
The number of days since that date is calculated.
Again, a connection candle is set.
A different set of offsets (e.g., +224, +238, +252 …) defines the starting candles.
Lines are drawn accordingly.
→ Line color: red
🔹 Line Logic
Each line connects:
Start → bar_index at high
End → bar_index at close
Lines are extended indefinitely to the right (extend.right).
Appearance: dashed style, width 2.
🔹 Error Handling
If a calculated candle index does not exist in the chart history (e.g., chart data does not go back far enough),
a label is plotted in the chart showing the message:
"Daily idx out of range: 252"
This way, missing lines can be diagnosed easily.
🔹 Color Convention
Weekly Spider Lines → Green
Daily Spider Lines → Red
🔹 Use Cases
Visualization of historical cyclic line patterns.
Helps in technical chart analysis: spotting potential reaction zones in price movement.
Designed mainly for long-term traders and analysts observing Bitcoin in Daily or Weekly timeframes.
🔹 Limitations
Works only on Daily and Weekly charts.
Requires chart data going back to July 1, 2019.
Based purely on fixed offsets → not a classical indicator like Moving Averages or RSI.
BTC Power Law Valuation BandsBTC Power Law Rainbow
A long-term valuation framework for Bitcoin based on Power Law growth — designed to help identify macro accumulation and distribution zones, aligned with long-term investor behavior.
🔍 What Is a Power Law?
A Power Law is a mathematical relationship where one quantity varies as a power of another. In this model:
Price ≈ a × (Time)^b
It captures the non-linear, exponentially slowing growth of Bitcoin over time. Rather than using linear or cyclical models, this approach aligns with how complex systems, such as networks or monetary adoption curves, often grow — rapidly at first, and then more slowly, but persistently.
🧠 Why Power Law for BTC?
Bitcoin:
Has finite supply and increasing adoption.
Operates as a monetary network , where Metcalfe’s Law and power laws naturally emerge.
Exhibits exponential growth over logarithmic time when viewed on a log-log chart .
This makes it uniquely well-suited for power law modeling.
🌈 How to Use the Valuation Bands
The central white line represents the modeled fair value according to the power law.
Colored bands represent deviations from the model in logarithmic space, acting as macro zones:
🔵 Lower Bands: Deep value / Accumulation zones.
🟡 Mid Bands: Fair value.
🔴 Upper Bands: Euphoria / Risk of macro tops.
📐 Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Alignment
Accumulation: Occurs when price consolidates near lower bands — often aligning with institutional positioning.
Markup: As price re-enters or ascends the bands, we often see breakout behavior and trend expansion.
Distribution: When price extends above upper bands, potential for exit liquidity creation and distribution events.
Reversion: Historically, price mean-reverts toward the model — rarely staying outside the bands for long.
This makes the model useful for:
Cycle timing
Long-term DCA strategy zones
Identifying value dislocations
Filtering short-term noise
⚠️ Disclaimer
This tool is for educational and informational purposes only . It is not financial advice. The power law model is a non-predictive, mathematical framework and does not guarantee future price movements .
Always use additional tools, risk management, and your own judgment before making trading or investment decisions.
Mancin Bitcoin CorrelationMancin Bitcoin Correlation
This indicator calculates the correlation coefficient between a selected asset and Bitcoin (default: BYBIT:BTCUSDT) over a specified period, and visualizes it as a line or columns with a dynamic color gradient.
Features:
Correlation values range from -1 (inverse relationship) to +1 (strong direct relationship).
Gradient fill changes intensity based on correlation strength:
Positive correlation uses the “high correlation” color.
Negative correlation uses the “low correlation” color.
Fully customizable:
Colors for positive and negative correlation.
Base transparency.
Gradient strength (sensitivity of transparency to correlation changes).
Correlation length.
Line style and color (Line or Columns).
Use cases:
Track how closely your asset moves with Bitcoin.
Spot moments when the asset starts moving in sync or diverging from BTC.
Useful for pair trading, arbitrage strategies, and assessing BTC’s market influence.
Trend Strength Index [Alpha Extract]The Trend Strength Index leverages Volume Weighted Moving Average (VWMA) and Average True Range (ATR) to quantify trend intensity in cryptocurrency markets, particularly Bitcoin. The combination of VWMA and ATR is particularly powerful because VWMA provides a more accurate representation of the market's true average price by weighting periods of higher trading volume more heavily—capturing genuine momentum driven by increased participation rather than treating all price action equally, which is crucial in volatile assets like Bitcoin where volume spikes often signal institutional interest or market shifts.
Meanwhile, ATR normalizes this measurement for volatility, ensuring that trend strength readings remain comparable across different market conditions; without ATR's adjustment, raw price deviations from the mean could appear artificially inflated during high-volatility periods (like during news events or liquidations) or understated in low-volatility sideways markets, leading to misleading signals. Together, they create a volatility-adjusted, volume-sensitive metric that reliably distinguishes between meaningful trend developments and noise.
This indicator measures the normalized distance between price and its volume-weighted mean, providing a clear visualization of trend strength while accounting for market volatility. It helps traders identify periods of strong directional movement versus consolidation, with color-coded gradients for intuitive interpretation.
🔶 CALCULATION
The indicator processes price data through these analytical stages:
Volume Weighted Moving Average: Computes a smoothed average weighted by trading volume
Volatility Normalization: Uses ATR to account for market volatility
Distance Measurement: Calculates absolute deviation between current price and VWMA
Strength Normalization: Divides price deviation by ATR for a volatility-adjusted metric
Formula:
VWMA = Volume-Weighted Moving Average of Close over specified length
ATR = Average True Range over specified length
Price Distance = |Close - VWMA|
Trend Strength = Price Distance / ATR
🔶 DETAILS Visual Features:
VWMA Line: Blue line overlay on the price chart representing the volume-weighted mean
Trend Strength Area: Histogram-style area plot with dynamic color gradient (red for weak trends, transitioning through orange and yellow to green for strong trends)
Threshold Line: Horizontal red line at the customizable Trend Enter level
Background Highlight: Subtle green background when trend strength exceeds the enter threshold for strong trend visualization
Alert System: Triggers notifications for strong trend detection
Interpretation:
0-Weak (Red): Minimal trend strength, potential consolidation or ranging market
Mid-Range (Orange/Yellow): Building momentum, watch for breakout potential
At/Above Enter Threshold (Green): Strong trend conditions, potential for continued directional moves
Threshold Crossing: Trend strength crossing above the enter level signals increasing conviction in the current direction
Color Transitions: Gradual shifts from warm (red/orange) to cool (green) tones indicate strengthening trends
🔶 EXAMPLES
Strong Trend Entry: When trend strength crosses above the enter threshold (e.g., 1.2), it identifies the onset of a powerful move where price deviates significantly from the mean.
Example: During a rally, trend strength rising from yellow (around 1.0) to green (1.2+) often precedes sustained upward momentum, providing entry opportunities for trend followers.
Consolidation Detection: Low trend strength values in red shades (below 0.5) highlight periods of low volatility and mean reversion potential.
Example: After a sharp sell-off, persistent red values signal a likely sideways phase, allowing traders to avoid whipsaws and wait for orange/yellow transitions as a precursor to recovery.
Volatility-Adjusted Pullbacks: In volatile markets, the ATR component ensures trend strength remains accurate; a dip back to yellow from green during minor corrections can indicate healthy pullbacks within a strong trend.
Example: Trend strength briefly falling to yellow levels (e.g., 0.8-1.1) after hitting green provides profit-taking signals without invalidating the overall bullish bias if the VWMA holds as support.
Threshold Alert Integration: The alert condition combines strength value with the enter threshold for timely notifications.
Example: Receiving a "Strong Trend Detected" alert when the area plot turns green helps confirm Bitcoin's breakout from consolidation, aligning with increased volume for higher-probability trades.
🔶 SETTINGS
Customization Options:
Lengths: VWMA length (default 14), ATR length (default 14)
Thresholds: Trend enter (default 1.2, step 0.1), trend exit (default 1.15, for potential future signal enhancements)
Visuals: Automatic color scaling with red at 0, transitioning to green at/above enter threshold
Alert Conditions: Strong trend detection (when strength > enter)
The Trend Strength Index equips traders with a robust, easy-to-interpret tool for gauging trend intensity in volatile markets like Bitcoin. By normalizing price deviations against volatility, it delivers reliable signals for identifying high-momentum opportunities while the gradient coloring and alerts facilitate quick assessments in both trending and choppy conditions.
Copper to Bitcoin RatioRatio: Divides copper price by Bitcoin price (copper / bitcoin). Since copper is in USD per pound and Bitcoin is in USD, the ratio is unitless but reflects copper’s value relative to Bitcoin.
Plotting: The ratio is plotted as a blue line, with an optional 20-period simple moving average (red line) for smoothing.
This can reflect market sentiment (e.g., industrial demand vs. crypto speculation).
